Football ranking table

laoisman11

Prediction model output for the 4 games this weekend plus the 2 games where we know the participating teams for the following weekend..........I am off on holidays for 2 weeks and I won't be carrying this computer with me, not sure if I will be able to post before the games of the weekend of the 21st/22nd.

Some pointers from the games outlined in the attached PDF:

• Fermanagh were going pretty well this year, prior to meeting Donegal whereas Kildare have been playing above expected since the Carlow disaster. A second ever championship meeting of these sides is tipped in Kidare's favour
• Cork's form is highly erratic but they have not lost to Tyrone in their 2 championship meets. Still Tyrone get the nod here due to a superior rating points difference
• Not much to separate Armagh and Roscommon in terms of form or previous meets, it might need extra-time
• Laois meet Monaghan for the 2nd time in the championship but the form has changed a lot for both teams since that 6 point win. Monaghan to continue an easy enough run in to the S8s.
• Dublin seem to be building up a head of steam, worringly enough for everyone else, with returns increasingly better than expected in their last 3 games. Donegal are not too different either, taking an Ulster title in fine fashion
• Rare to see a team win 2 consecutive games by more than 10 points than was expected but that is where Kerry are at right now. Kerry do seem to have an advantage over Galway over the last 30 years, but the prediction model thinks that it will be very tight
  

tl;dr
Kildare by 1.9
Tyrone by 3.6
Roscommon by 0.4
Monaghan by 4.9
Dublin by 5.8
Kerry by 0.3

keane2097

The PDF isn't working for some reason Laoisman. Can you refresh my memory of how the predictions work again (ten second version is fine)?

There's obviously some disconnect from the current rankings considering that Galway are well above Kerry at the moment.

laoisman11

keane2097 wrote: »

The PDF isn't working for some reason Laoisman. Can you refresh my memory of how the predictions work again (ten second version is fine)?

There's obviously some disconnect from the current rankings considering that Galway are well above Kerry at the moment.

I had problems uploading it alright, but thought that it was ok. Not sure if I will have time to upload it again from the home computer. Apologies.

The predictions are based on the teams that play, their respective ratings and their previous history. The ratings difference is the primary driver of the prediction, but the ratings used for the predictions are not the same as the ranking table shown in this thread. (2 different objectives: the ratings caluclation for the ranking table in this thread is constructed so that the All-Ireland champions are number 1; for the prediction model, it is to be as accurate as possible for predictions).

However, the history between the 2 teams also plays a role, so in this case, Kerry, who appear to do better than expected when playing against Galway in the championship, would get a slight advantage. If I get time this evening or tomorrow, I will check what rating points both teams have in the prediction model.

laoisman11

laoisman11 wrote: »

I had problems uploading it alright, but thought that it was ok. Not sure if I will have time to upload it again from the home computer. Apologies.

The predictions are based on the teams that play, their respective ratings and their previous history. The ratings difference is the primary driver of the prediction, but the ratings used for the predictions are not the same as the ranking table shown in this thread. (2 different objectives: the ratings caluclation for the ranking table in this thread is constructed so that the All-Ireland champions are number 1; for the prediction model, it is to be as accurate as possible for predictions).

However, the history between the 2 teams also plays a role, so in this case, Kerry, who appear to do better than expected when playing against Galway in the championship, would get a slight advantage. If I get time this evening or tomorrow, I will check what rating points both teams have in the prediction model.

Galway were ahead of Kerry in the prediction ratings keane, but by less than in the ratings that are posted here: Galway were at 96.91 vs 94.65 for Kerry. Kerry having had the upper hand for the last number of years probably (incorrectly as it turned out) tipped in their favour.

laoisman11

I will update the last 2 weekend's games separately......

• Roscommon gained the most from the final round of the qualifiers, taking 4.38 rating points from Armagh who (more than likely will) finish the year in 10th
• Kildare jumped 2 places to 8th following their bonus-point victory over Fermanagh who finish the year in 16th
• Tyrone and Monaghan picked up minor gains in their wins over Cork and Laois respectively

A note before we enter the unknown territory of the Super 8s, a few bad losses could drag a team to a ranking lower than 8th, especially if the chasing pack is close (as is currently the case). So if Roscommon or Kildare have disastrous results in the Super 8s, I would not be surprised to see them drop to below 11th or 12th, which would appear unfair on these teams.

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 108.64 | 0.00
2 | = | Galway | 105.27 | 0.00
3 | = | Kerry | 100.63 | 0.00
4 | = | Tyrone | 99.38 | 0.91
5 | = | Monaghan | 98.63 | 0.87
6 | = | Donegal | 96.87 | 0.00
7 | = | Roscommon | 95.84 | 4.38
8 | ▲ 2 | Kildare | 93.73 | 3.58
9 | = | Mayo | 90.64 | 0.00
10 | ▼ 2 | Armagh | 86.68 | -4.38
11 | ▲ | Laois | 86.22 | -0.87
12 | ▲ | Cork | 85.59 | -0.91
13 | ▲ | Cavan | 84.95 | 0.00
14 | ▲ | Clare | 84.12 | 0.00
15 | ▼ 4 | Fermanagh | 83.52 | -3.58
16 | = | Meath | 80.34 | 0.00

laoisman11

• Galway confirm their status as the number 2 team in the country, edging ever-closer to Dublin
• Tyrone were the biggest winners in terms of rating points, taking 3.44 after their routing of Roscommon
• Monaghan's slim win over Kildare gained them 2.02 rating points
• Dublin finally pick up their first rating points of this championship season!

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 108.69 | 0.05
2 | = | Galway | 107.34 | 2.07
3 | ▲ | Tyrone | 102.82 | 3.44
4 | ▲ | Monaghan | 100.65 | 2.02
5 | ▼ 2 | Kerry | 98.56 | -2.07
6 | = | Donegal | 96.82 | -0.05
7 | = | Roscommon | 92.40 | -3.44
8 | = | Kildare | 91.71 | -2.02
9 | = | Mayo | 90.64 | 0.00
10 | = | Armagh | 86.68 | 0.00
11 | = | Laois | 86.22 | 0.00
12 | = | Cork | 85.59 | 0.00
13 | = | Cavan | 84.95 | 0.00
14 | = | Clare | 84.12 | 0.00
15 | = | Fermanagh | 83.52 | 0.00
16 | = | Meath | 80.34 | 0.00

laoisman11

A lot of potentially close games in store this weekend as the Super 8s goes on the road......

• With only one ever previous championship meeting, both Roscommon and Donegal will be going into today's game hoping to improve their chances of making the All-Ireland semi-finals. Roscommon's result against Tyrone was abyssmal while Donegal did better than expected against Dublin. Home advantage is surely worth a few points to Roscommon and if they turn on the style, they could run up a big score. That could be a big if, though
• Tyrone have vastly upped their game since they scraped over Cavan, putting both Cork and Roscommon comprehensively to the sword. Last year's defeat to Dublin should make Tyrone very aware of the huge task that they have in hand in stopping the blue juggernaut. Home advantage may count for little, as they also found out during the league. The prediction model predicts a tight affair
• Galway have not lost a league or championship game in over a year, in contrast to Kildare who recently completed an almost 12-month period without a win. Kildare have turned their season around though, and went down by narrow margins to Monaghan in the previous round. If they are to beat Galway for the first time since 1985, they are going to have to put in a huge performance
• Two massive wins over Clare and Cork had half the country (and maybe Kerry themselves?) believing that they had arrived but Galway gleefully burst that bubble. A trip to Clones is not what could be regarded as a soft way to bounce back, and Monaghan's form could see them get their first-ever championship win over Kerry. The prediction model is not convinced, however

tl;dr (or can't make the PDF out from the phone)
Roscommon by 0.5
Dublin by 0.9
Galway by 3.5
Kerry by 0.5

soap1978

Not a hope of Roscommon beating donegal

CrabRevolution

Didn't Galway lose the league final in April?

tayto lover

Cork at No.12 ????

laoisman11

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Didn't Galway lose the league final in April?

You are indeed correct, méa culpa. Last loss to Dublin in the league final, 3 losses in the last 20 games.

Happyilylost

laoisman11 wrote:

You are indeed correct, méa culpa. Last loss to Dublin in the league final, 3 losses in the last 20 games.

You were right the first time Laoisman. Galway won the League having finished top. GAA decided to play an exhibition game between league champions and All Ireland Champions after that. I don't think glorified friendlies should be affecting your excellent stats.

laoisman11

• Donegal gained the most after this weekend's round of games, taking 4.07 rating points from Roscommon after their bonus point win
• Dublin push further ahead in the number one position despite a spirited Tyrone challenge
• Kerry gained 1.02 rating points (and a serious reprieve) following their escape from Clones
• Galway picked up minor gains against Kildare
• There is now less than 1.5 rating points separating 3rd from 6th

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 111.12 | 2.43
2 | = | Galway | 107.81 | 0.47
3 | ▲ 3 | Donegal | 100.89 | 4.07
4 | ▼ | Tyrone | 100.39 | -2.43
5 | ▼ | Monaghan | 99.63 | -1.02
6 | ▼ | Kerry | 99.58 | 1.02
7 | ▲ | Kildare | 91.24 | -0.47
8 | ▲ | Mayo | 90.64 | 0.00
9 | ▼ 2 | Roscommon | 88.33 | -4.07
10 | = | Armagh | 86.68 | 0.00
11 | = | Laois | 86.22 | 0.00
12 | = | Cork | 85.59 | 0.00
13 | = | Cavan | 84.95 | 0.00
14 | = | Clare | 84.12 | 0.00
15 | = | Fermanagh | 83.52 | 0.00
16 | = | Meath | 80.34 | 0.00

laoisman11

With both Dublin and Galway already through, and Kildare and Roscommon out, it is hard to know how these teams will approach this weekend's games.....

• Their second-ever championship meeting (the previous one dates from 1938), Monaghan go to Pearse Stadium searching 2nd place in the group while Galway must win if they wish to avoid Dublin in the semi-final. Both teams have performed very solidly over the last 12 months when we compare their predicted-expected results (with the exception of Monaghan's slip-up to Fermanagh and their subsequent hammering of Waterford). It is primarily the rating difference which drives the prediction model to go for a Galway win.
• Two poor performances, preceded by 2 good results; can Kerry keep turn it around? Or is there a sting in the tail for Kildare? Kildare have been performing well this year and will surely want some revenge for the 27 point mauling in 2015. Still, in Killarney, it is hard to look past Kerry.
• Donegal and Tyrone are almost equal on rating points, and there is little to separate them in recent years. It is noticeable that Donegal have not lost to Tyrone on the 2 previous occasions that they have played them in Ballybofey. The prediction model can't call it either.
• Roscommon would have to be unhappy with their performances against Tyrone and Donegal, and they are highly unlikely to redeem themselves in the Dublin's chosen home grounds. There was only 4 points between them in their most recent championship meeting in 2004 and Roscommon would gladly settle for a repeat of this outcome. Dublin won't though.

tl;dr (or can't make the PDF out from the phone)
Galway by 3.3
Kerry by 5.7
Tyrone by 0.2
Dublin by 7.6

laoisman11

• Monaghan's bonus point win away over Galway sees them rise to 2nd in the rankings, heights that they have not seen since 1988!
• Tyrone's excellent win in Ballybofey gains them 5.55 rating points and consigns Donegal to 6th in the table
• Kerry picked up minor points for beating Kildare, while no rating points were exchanged in the Dublin-Roscommon game
• Interestingly, Mayo will finish the season in 7th, despite not having reached the Super 8s

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 111.12 | 0.00
2 | ▲ 3 | Monaghan | 107.48 | 7.85
3 | ▲ | Tyrone | 105.94 | 5.55
4 | ▲ 2| Kerry | 100.68 | 1.10
5 | ▼ 3 | Galway | 99.96 | -7.85
6 | ▼ 3 | Donegal | 95.34 | -5.55
7 | ▲ | Mayo | 90.64 | 0.00
8 | ▼ | Kildare | 90.14 | -1.10
9 | = | Roscommon | 88.33 | 0.00
10 | = | Armagh | 86.68 | 0.00
11 | = | Laois | 86.22 | 0.00
12 | = | Cork | 85.59 | 0.00
13 | = | Cavan | 84.95 | 0.00
14 | = | Clare | 84.12 | 0.00
15 | = | Fermanagh | 83.52 | 0.00
16 | = | Meath | 80.34 | 0.00

laoisman11

And after all that, we are down to 4. And the first time since 2010 that neither Mayo nor Kerry were among the semi-finalists!

• Dublin meet Galway in the championship for the first time since the infamous 1983 game. What is surprising, is that in their 6 league encounters since 2003, Dublin have performed poorly against Galway (league final win of 2018 included). Despite the large rating difference between the sides, the prediction model is going for the same result as their league final meeting. There might be some cards shown too!
• Both Monaghan and Tyrone are coming into this game with great runs of form. Tyrone will be keen to gain revenge for their Ulster exit and for the league loss, both of which were tight affairs. It is likely that this one will be no different, but Tyrone are (just about) tipped to make it

tl;dr (or can't make the PDF out from the phone)
Dublin by 4.0
Tyrone by 0.7

What.Now

Is there a possibility that both Monaghan and Dublin could win this weekend and Monaghan still take over first spot?

laoisman11

What.Now wrote: »

Is there a possibility that both Monaghan and Dublin could win this weekend and Monaghan still take over first spot?

I don’t have access to my computer at the moment, but if Monaghan win by more than 5 and Dublin win by less than 5, then it will be very tight between them.

laoisman11

Overall, both Galway and Monaghan should be proud of what they have achieved this year, even if the manner of their semi-final losses to Dublin and Tyrone, respectively, may leave a bitter taste. Galway topped Division 1 of the league, regained the Connacht title and made it to the semi-final by beating Kerry for the first time since 1965. Monaghan were the only team (to date!) to beat Dublin this year, and made the All-Ireland semi-final for the first time in 30 years. It only hurts because both believe that they can do better.

All to play for to achieve the number 1 position but Dublin are in the driving seat...........

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 111.37 | 0.25
2 | ▲ | Tyrone | 109.25 | 3.31
3 | ▼ | Monaghan | 104.17 | -3.31
4 | = | Kerry | 100.68 | 0.00
5 | = | Galway | 99.71 | -0.25
6 | = | Donegal | 95.34 | 0.00
7 | = | Mayo | 90.64 | 0.00
8 | = | Kildare | 90.14 | 0.00

blowitupref

Galway regained the Connacht title than retained it. I agree when the dust settles on their semi final defeats i think both Galway and Monaghan can be well pleased with the progress they both made this year.

blanch152

laoisman11 wrote: »

Overall, both Galway and Monaghan should be proud of what they have achieved this year, even if the manner of their semi-final losses to Dublin and Tyrone, respectively, may leave a bitter taste. Galway topped Division 1 of the league, regained the Connacht title and made it to the semi-final by beating Kerry for the first time since 1965. Monaghan were the only team (to date!) to beat Dublin this year, and made the All-Ireland semi-final for the first time in 30 years. It only hurts because both believe that they can do better.

All to play for to achieve the number 1 position but Dublin are in the driving seat...........

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 111.37 | 0.25
2 | ▲ | Tyrone | 109.25 | 3.31
3 | ▼ | Monaghan | 104.17 | -3.31
4 | = | Kerry | 100.68 | 0.00
5 | = | Galway | 99.71 | -0.25
6 | = | Donegal | 95.34 | 0.00
7 | = | Mayo | 90.64 | 0.00
8 | = | Kildare | 90.14 | 0.00

Would a big Dublin win give them the highest rating of all-time?

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

Would a big Dublin win give them the highest rating of all-time?

I thought we already got that in 2016. 112.**?

blanch152

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I thought we already got that in 2016. 112.**?

Possibly, but can we beat that now? Looking at Tyrone on 109, they are pretty close, doesn't that mean more ranking points are available?

The wiki page that explained the rankings is gone, so I can't refresh my mind on how it works.

What.Now

blanch152 wrote: »

Possibly, but can we beat that now? Looking at Tyrone on 109, they are pretty close, doesn't that mean more ranking points are available?

The wiki page that explained the rankings is gone, so I can't refresh my mind on how it works.

I think 12.49 was the highest that was achieved by Dublin in their latest run. I'd image if the final is won by Dublin that they would surpass that. I wouldn't think that the 70's team achieved that high a ranking points.

What was Kerry's highest?

laoisman11

Correct, a Dublin win will set a new record for maximum rating points amassed.

Should Dublin win by 5 points or less, they will move to 113.35 rating points, thereby breaking their own previous record of 112.49 set in August 2016. (Should they win by more than 5, they will explode the previous record!)

Incidentally, should Tyrone win, they will also break the record (not bad for a team that has lost 2 championship games already this summer).

Kerry's maximum rating points achieved was 112.05, and that dates to November 1978.

laoisman11

A seriously underwhelming finish to this year's championship (or is that just me??).

With all the talk of Dublin's odds to win 5-in-a-row less than Tyrone's chance of creating an upset on Sunday, one would have to wonder what it is going to take to beat Dublin, and do Tyrone have it?

The results of their previous 2 meetings, both in Omagh, bode poorly for Tyrone, failing to overcome Dublin at both attempts. Tyrone had a poor start to the campaign, falling to Monaghan, but they redeemed themselves in the semi-final to become the first team to have lost 2 championship games and yet reach the All-Ireland final.

What to say about Dublin that has not already been said? The relentlessness that they bring to the game, the speed of transfer when the opportunity presents, their capacity to hold it up when needed, the decision making, the 26 man panel.........and the quality of player they have to back it all up makes them, for me, the most complete team to have ever played the game.

The prediction model didn't have to work so hard to predict a Dublin win (full model output attached) but Tyrone will be sure to make their opportunity count and to give Dublin plenty to think about.

Prediction: Dublin by 3.1

laoisman11

And so it ends, as it began, with Dublin as All-Ireland champions.

Congratulations to an outstanding team who have broken the all-time record for the number of rating points amassed!

I am pretty busy over the next few weeks, but I will get back with an end of year review before Christmas.

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 114.33 | 2.96
2 | = | Tyrone | 106.29 | -2.96
3 | = | Monaghan | 104.17 | 0.00
4 | = | Kerry | 100.68 | 0.00
5 | = | Galway | 99.71 | 0.00
6 | = | Donegal | 95.34 | 0.00
7 | = | Mayo | 90.64 | 0.00
8 | = | Kildare | 90.14 | 0.00
9 | = | Roscommon | 88.33 | 0.00
10 | = | Armagh | 86.68 | 0.00
11 | = | Laois | 86.22 | 0.00
12 | = | Cork | 85.59 | 0.00
13 | = | Cavan | 84.95 | 0.00
14 | = | Clare | 84.12 | 0.00
15 | = | Fermanagh | 83.52 | 0.00
16 | = | Meath | 80.34 | 0.00
17 | = | Carlow | 80.12 | 0.00
18 | = | Longford | 79.54 | 0.00
19 | = | Tipperary | 77.98 | 0.00
20 | = | Down | 77.44 | 0.00
21 | = | Sligo | 74.13 | 0.00
22 | = | Westmeath | 72.05 | 0.00
23 | = | Offaly | 71.82 | 0.00
24 | = | Leitrim | 70.44 | 0.00
25 | = | Derry | 69.95 | 0.00
26 | = | Antrim | 65.86 | 0.00
27 | = | Louth | 63.26 | 0.00
28 | = | Waterford | 63.00 | 0.00
29 | = | Wexford | 61.28 | 0.00
30 | = | Limerick | 60.90 | 0.00
31 | = | Wicklow | 60.71 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 51.85 | 0.00

BonnieSituation

It's looking well.

Fr Tod Umptious

So your telling me that Monaghan are better than Mayo and Kerry ?

Seriously though, great work again laoisman11.

I'd imagine that Galway fans might be a bit miffed coming behind Kerry after getting to a league final, an AI SF and beating Kerry twice.

Pa8301

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

So your telling me that Monaghan are better than Mayo and Kerry ?

Seriously though, great work again laoisman11.

I'd imagine that Galway fans might be a bit miffed coming behind Kerry after getting to a league final, an AI SF and beating Kerry twice.

Not sure how the ranking points are calculated but I assume the absolute hammerings we got in our final two games cost us dearly!