Football ranking table

laoisman11

Boom__Boom wrote: »

Of the 14 teams left in the Championship 5 are from Division 1, 5 from Division 2, 2 from Division 3 and 2 from Division 4

The 2 teams in Division 4 have been helped by a relatively kind draw - Clare beat another Division 4 side in Carlow, while Tipperary beat a team Longford which will be playing in Division 4 next year in this round. However for both these teams whatever happens next this year will surely go down as a great year for football in both counties as they have really built on getting out of Division 4 with a number of Championship wins.

Maintaining a tradition of sides relegated from Division 1 going on to have awful Championships both Derry and Westmeath are gone, with Tyrone joining them - today was Tyrone's 5th game and 4th game against Ulster opposition. Where Tyrone will go from here will be interesting to see.

Dublin, Mayo, Kerry , Cork and Kildare are the five Division 1 teams in the running, with Donegal, Monaghan, Meath, Galway and Armagh the Division 2 sides. These are the teams at the business end of the Championship -

In terms of the teams still in action, all the teams that got promoted in the league bar Cavan - Donegal, Monaghan, Roscommon, Tipperary and Clare are all still in action, and Cavan as they will need little reminding got knocked out by a promoted team in Rosscommon. Obviously the draw helped a bit but you would have to add this to the evidence pile hat if a team is going well in the league it sets a team up pretty well for Championship. This isnt a hard and fast rule though,as evidenced by the Derry exception.

The only 2 teams which got relegated and are still surviving are Kildare and Armagh - compared to Westmeath, Louth, Longford, and Offaly who have followed up relegation in the league with awful Championship form.

There is some evidence that form carries the other way too - from championship to league. I remember looking at the ratings of teams with respect to their division in the league, and for the most part (Derry being an obvious exception), the 2 highest ranked teams from Div 2-4 were promoted and the 2 lowest ranking teams from Div 1-3 were relegated.

I will post on this before the start of the league, see if it follows through for next year.

laoisman11

Two more knock-out games and 2 provincial finals up for decision this weekend. Am away for a few days so will get this out early. The updated rankings should be posted by Wednesday.

Roscommon (86,40) v Armagh (88,44)
*Given the benefit of home advantage, Roscommon should win this, but their home form is not spectacular. Armagh by 1 point.

Clare (76,63) v Kildare (90,30)
*Kildare to win by 4 points.

Dublin (102,23) v Meath (89,09)
*Dublin won their games against Laois and Wexford by the predicted margin (+/- 1 point). Will Meath fall to a 10 point defeat and continue Dublin's close adherence to the rankings?

Monaghan (93,54) v Donegal (94,30)
*Monaghan should win by 2, but a draw would correlate more closely with their home form.

Al Monds

Hello Laois Man,

I have a complete set of results in SFC, SHC, NFL and NHL from inception to today.
Would they be of any use to you?

Fireball07

Al Monds wrote: »

Hello Laois Man,

I have a complete set of results in SFC, SHC, NFL and NHL from inception to today.
Would they be of any use to you?

I don't know about laois_man, whether he's going to go back and input all that information... sounds like a lot of work... but I'd certainly love to see all those results. A class resource.

laoisman11

Al Monds wrote: »

Hello Laois Man,

I have a complete set of results in SFC, SHC, NFL and NHL from inception to today.
Would they be of any use to you?

They would be of great use to me, especially the football results. I'm sure Hanalei would be interested in the hurling ones too.

What format are they in, Al Monds? Possible to send them electronically?

keysersoze0330

Very interesting thread, laoisman. Well done.

Al Monds

All the results are in MS Excel.

How do I send them?

I tried to insert my email address and I was censored.

laoisman11

Al Monds wrote: »

All the results are in MS Excel.

How do I send them?

I tried to insert my email address and I was censored.

Excel will be very easy to handle, that's great. I'll send you a PM with my email address.

Thanks a million.....

feargale

Al Monds wrote: »

Hello Laois Man,

I have a complete set of results in SFC, SHC, NFL and NHL from inception to today.
Would they be of any use to you?

It would be great if we could google them,

laoisman11

* Armagh gained 2.14 rating points and leap-frogged Tyrone and Meath to move to 8th in the rankings, while Roscommon dropped 2 places
* Kildare's win over Clare resulted in a very small point exchange (0.58) but it was enough for Kildare to climb a place
* No points were exchanged following the Leinster final
* Monaghan drop a place following their Ulster final loss, while Donegal make up ground on the top 3.

Interestingly, the 4 provincial final winners top the rankings table.

Only 2 games up for decision this weekend:

Cork (93,33) v Sligo (75,99)
* Results from all previous championship games (from 1994) predict a 7 point win for Cork and the elimination of the lowest ranking team left in the championship.

Galway (83,73) v Tipperary (85,4)
* A one point win for Tipperary

#|Δ|Team|Rating points
*1|-|Dublin|102,23
*2|-|Kerry|98,96
*3|-|Mayo|98,03
*4|-|Donegal|96,61
*5|▲|Cork|93,33
*6|▼|Monaghan|91,24
*7|▲|Kildare|90,89
*8|▲▲|Armagh|90,57
9|▼▼|Tyrone|90,50
*10|▼|Meath|89,11
*11|▲|Tipperary|85,40
12|▲|Derry|85,00
13|▼▼|Roscommon|84,30
*14|-|Galway|83,73
15|-|Laois|83,57
16|-|Down|82,14
17|-|Louth|79,14
18|-|Cavan|79,08
19|-|Wexford|76,79
20|-|Clare|76,04
*21|-|Sligo|75,99
22|-|Westmeath|74,50
23|-|Longford|74,17
24|-|Fermanagh|72,87
25|-|Limerick|72,62
26|-|Antrim|70,57
27|-|Wicklow|70,05
28|-|Leitrim|69,68
29|-|Offaly|67,42
30|-|London|63,68
31|-|Carlow|63,20
32|-|Waterford|62,63
33|-|New York|57,54
*Teams with asterisk still in the championship

Hibbeler

Surprised to see Tipperary creeping up on the top ten, good on them and I would fancy them to beat Galway and reach the quarter final. Depending on how my own county performs in round 4 they could find themselves in the top 10 of these rankings.

Not really surprised though that the four provincial winners make up the top 4, they're the four best teams out there atm and it would be difficult to look past them for Sam.

laoisman11

* Galway gained 2.22 rating points and moved up 3 places in the rankings to 11th while Tipperary fell 4 places to 15th. Overall, it's been a great season for Tipperary, prior to the championship they had 78.19 rating points.
* There were no rating points exchanged in the Cork – Sligo game, although Sligo did make a gain of 2.94 rating points over the course of this year's championship

#|Δ|Team|Rating points
*1|-|Dublin|102,23
*2|-|Kerry|98,96
*3|-|Mayo|98,03
*4|-|Donegal|96,61
*5|-|Cork|93,33
*6|-|Monaghan|91,24
*7|-|Kildare|90,89
*8|-|Armagh|90,57
9|-|Tyrone|90,50
*10|-|Meath|89,11
*11|▲▲▲|Galway|85,95
12|-|Derry|85,00
13|-|Roscommon|84,30
14|▲|Laois|83,57
15|▼▼▼▼|Tipperary|83,18
16|-|Down|82,14
17|-|Louth|79,14
18|-|Cavan|79,08
19|-|Wexford|76,79
20|-|Clare|76,04
21|-|Sligo|75,99
22|-|Westmeath|74,50
23|-|Longford|74,17
24|-|Fermanagh|72,87
25|-|Limerick|72,62
26|-|Antrim|70,57
27|-|Wicklow|70,05
28|-|Leitrim|69,68
29|-|Offaly|67,42
30|-|London|63,68
31|-|Carlow|63,20
32|-|Waterford|62,63
33|-|New York|57,54
* Teams with asterisk still in the championship

risteard7

Armagh and Kildare ahead of Meath? No chance.

laoisman11

risteard7 wrote: »

Armagh and Kildare ahead of Meath? No chance.

If Meath can overcome Armagh this weekend, I'd expect them to make a big jump in the rankings. That's a big if though!

zombieHanalei

risteard7 wrote: »

Armagh and Kildare ahead of Meath? No chance.

Based on recent championship results I think it's fair. Armagh and Kildare had good away wins over relatively high ranked teams in round two and followed that up with away wins in round three. Meath enter this weekend on the back of a massive hammering.

Have a look again after this weekends qualifiers, all three teams in action, if Meath win they should move up to 8th I reckon.

risteard7

Yea I suppose this weekend will tell a lot. It is a great system though so fair play laoisman.

Tombo2001

Its interesting as I am assuming its based purely on form, like the FIFA rankings, and goes against the idea people have in their heads about who are the best teams.

e.g. If Tyrone were playing Kildare this weekend, most people would fancy Tyrone.

Most people (here) seem to fancy Kildare to beat Monaghan.

However, Monaghan have already beaten Tyrone this year in the championship.

zombieHanalei

Tombo2001 wrote: »

Its interesting as I am assuming its based purely on form, like the FIFA rankings, and goes against the idea people have in their heads about who are the best teams.

To be honest, I think laoisman11 has found a very good balance between current form and medium term consistency (i.e. a period of 18 or so months), the rankings I have been doing for hurling sway a little more towards medium term.

So it can take longer for teams to make gains in my system, if laoisman's algorithm was applied to hurling I have a feeling Wexford would be 7th or 8th right now, while my system still has them down in 9th as his system is a little more rewarding to short term improvements.

The football rankings are so much more difficult as the teams are closer together whereas in the hurling I'm ranking maybe 4 different pools of teams who almost never overlap.

I have found this most interesting to follow throughout the championship, it has reacted very well to results throughout the summer, laoisman11 really has done an excellent job.

K-9

Tombo2001 wrote: »

Its interesting as I am assuming its based purely on form, like the FIFA rankings, and goes against the idea people have in their heads about who are the best teams.

e.g. If Tyrone were playing Kildare this weekend, most people would fancy Tyrone.

Most people (here) seem to fancy Kildare to beat Monaghan.

However, Monaghan have already beaten Tyrone this year in the championship.

People tend to judge on your last match, not form. It's hard to know where both teams are at, both have been inconsistent, going on the weekends results the extra week seems a help to the provincial final losers though these match ups are very close to call and the rankings reflect that, 6 v. 7 and 8 v. 10.

laoisman11

K-9 wrote: »

People tend to judge on your last match, not form. It's hard to know where both teams are at, both have been inconsistent, going on the weekends results the extra week seems a help to the provincial final losers though these match ups are very close to call and the rankings reflect that, 6 v. 7 and 8 v. 10.

You're right, this group of teams are very closely ranked together - even the rating point difference between 6th and 10th is very small (2.13). This weekend will put a bit of daylight between these teams.

laoisman11

zombieHanalei wrote: »

To be honest, I think laoisman11 has found a very good balance between current form and medium term consistency (i.e. a period of 18 or so months), the rankings I have been doing for hurling sway a little more towards medium term.

So it can take longer for teams to make gains in my system, if laoisman's algorithm was applied to hurling I have a feeling Wexford would be 7th or 8th right now, while my system still has them down in 9th as his system is a little more rewarding to short term improvements.

The football rankings are so much more difficult as the teams are closer together whereas in the hurling I'm ranking maybe 4 different pools of teams who almost never overlap.

I have found this most interesting to follow throughout the championship, it has reacted very well to results throughout the summer, laoisman11 really has done an excellent job.

Thanks to yourself for the original inspiration.

I'm hoping to be able to go into a lot more detail for the rankings based on the results I received from Al Monds, just need a bit of time to get everything set up and verified.

laoisman11

In terms of rating points, there's very little separating the 4 teams involved in Round 4B of the qualifiers, while the first of the quarter-final games brings an element of the “business-end” of the championship, with the possibility of one, or more, of the top 4 bowing out.

Meath (89,11) v Armagh (90,57)
* This is predicted to be a very tight game, with Armagh the winners by the margin of one point. Armagh have been fairly solid so far, with good wins over Tyrone and Roscommon justifying their rating. Meath have had little chance to shine (not taking into account the Carlow game) except for the first 50 minutes against Kildare.

Monaghan (91,24) v Kildare (90,89)
* As these 2 teams have very similar rating points, a draw is the most likely outcome here. Kildare easily accounted for Down while making harder work of Clare. Monaghan, meanwhile, will have been disappointed with their Ulster final performance, and if they bring the same game plan here, the game is likely to finish similarly.

Kerry (98,96) v Galway (85,95)
* The rating point difference between Kerry and Galway infers a 6 point win for Kerry, which they would be delighted with following their comprehensive Munster final win.

Mayo (98,03) v Cork (93,33)
* The ratings predict a 2 point win for Mayo, who have not been firing on all cylinders yet this season. Cork need to pull out a big performance to avoid this year becoming a write-off.

laoisman11

* The gap is closing on Dublin as Kerry and Mayo gained rating points this weekend. As Mayo gained more rating points than Kerry following their wins over Cork and Galway, respectively, Mayo leap-frogged Kerry into second place, but the rating point difference between the 2 is minimal.
* Armagh continued their excellent progress this year, jumping 2 places while Meath remain constant in 10th place.
* Monaghan recovered some of the rating points lost in the Ulster final with a hard-fought win over Kildare who drop 2 places to 9th.

#|Δ|Team|Rating points
*1|-|Dublin|102,23
*2|▲|Mayo|99,41
*3|▼|Kerry|99,35
*4|-|Donegal|96,61
*5|▲|Monaghan|93,20
*6|▲▲|Armagh|92,37
7|▼▼|Cork|91,95
8|▲|Tyrone|90,50
9|▼▼|Kildare|88,93
10|-|Meath|87,31
11|-|Galway|85,56
12|-|Derry|85,00
13|-|Roscommon|84,30
14|-|Laois|83,57
15|-|Tipperary|83,18
16|-|Down|82,14
17|-|Louth|79,14
18|-|Cavan|79,08
19|-|Wexford|76,79
20|-|Clare|76,04
21|-|Sligo|75,99
22|-|Westmeath|74,50
23|-|Longford|74,17
24|-|Fermanagh|72,87
25|-|Limerick|72,62
26|-|Antrim|70,57
27|-|Wicklow|70,05
28|-|Leitrim|69,68
29|-|Offaly|67,42
30|-|London|63,68
31|-|Carlow|63,20
32|-|Waterford|62,63
33|-|New York|57,54
*Teams with asterisk still in the championship

ardmacha

How is a draw + ET treated in these calculations versus a draw (no ET) + replay?

laoisman11

ardmacha wrote: »

How is a draw + ET treated in these calculations versus a draw (no ET) + replay?

At the moment, I'm treating the draw + ET as one game (i.e. taking the final result) whereas the draw and replay are treated as 2 games. It's something that had crossed my mind, especially after this weekend's game between Monaghan and Kildare. I don't think that it would have much effect on overall ratings in the long-term, but it's something that I will be able to check on later.

I have a system in place now to run all the results from 1926 to present and calculate the rankings at any given time since 1930. (I chose 1926 as the League commenced then and I chose 1930 to allow teams to "find their place" in the rankings.) I can easily vary all the variables, so now I want to look at the fit of the results and see if I can do some data modelling. I also to want to have a look at the best way to present all this - the wikipedia portal is quite limited for what I had in mind.

kupus

good work loaisman and thanks for taking the time out to do it. It makes for great reading.

laoisman11

The 2 remaining quarter-finals are to be decided this weekend:

Donegal (96,61) v Armagh (92,37)
* Donegal are coming off the back of a good Ulster campaign where they dealt effectively, although rarely spectacularly, with all competitors. Armagh bowed out of Ulster after a replay to Monaghan, and then took care of Tyrone, Roscommon and Meath in the qualifiers, which was no mean feat. Donegal are predicted to win this game by 2 points.

Dublin (102,23) v Monaghan (93,20)
* Dublin advance unmarked from their Leinster campaign where they won their games by margins of 11, 16 and 16 points. Their approach to the game, allied with the numerous athletic footballers available to them, will make them hard to stop. Monaghan, meanwhile, had a good Ulster SFC, with solid wins over Tyrone and Armagh, although they will regret their approach to the Ulster final. They got back on the road with an excellent win over Kildare. Hard to know how they will approach this, but they need to bring their attack into the game while stifling Dublin's running game. The rankings predict a 6 point win for Dublin.

laoisman11

* Very minor changes in the rankings after this weekend's remaining quarter-finals with Armagh dropping one place after their loss to Donegal.
* In terms of rating points, Donegal gained 1.44 points and put clear distance between themselves and the counties already eliminated from the championship.
* Dublin gained 0.6 rating points after their dismissal of Monaghan.

#|Δ|Team|Rating points
*1|-|Dublin|102,83
*2|-|Mayo|99,41
*3|-|Kerry|99,35
*4|-|Donegal|98,05
5|-|Monaghan|92,60
6|▲|Cork|91,95
7|▼|Armagh|90,93
8|-|Tyrone|90,50
9|-|Kildare|88,93
10|-|Meath|87,31
11|-|Galway|85,56
12|-|Derry|85,00
13|-|Roscommon|84,30
14|-|Laois|83,57
15|-|Tipperary|83,18
16|-|Down|82,14
17|-|Louth|79,14
18|-|Cavan|79,08
19|-|Wexford|76,79
20|-|Clare|76,04
21|-|Sligo|75,99
22|-|Westmeath|74,50
23|-|Longford|74,17
24|-|Fermanagh|72,87
25|-|Limerick|72,62
26|-|Antrim|70,57
27|-|Wicklow|70,05
28|-|Leitrim|69,68
29|-|Offaly|67,42
30|-|London|63,68
31|-|Carlow|63,20
32|-|Waterford|62,63
33|-|New York|57,54
*Teams with asterisk still in the championship

elefant

The ranking's prediction of winning margins is scarily accurate. Great system. Good enough to be official imo!

laoisman11

elefant wrote: »

The ranking's prediction of winning margins is scarily accurate. Great system. Good enough to be official imo!

It's not really set up to be a predictive system but an overall snapshot of where teams are relative to other teams - my idea was just to have a look at the predictive aspect and see how it paned out. At the end of the year, I'll put up a graph of predicted vs actual and see how it fits.

Earlier on in the thread I had put in +/- values for the predictions and it's somewhere around +/- 8 points for each prediction - which is a huge range! In saying that, I notice that PaddyPower's handicap correlates very closely with what the ranking system predicts.

homewardbound11

What would the score board predict as it is for both semifinal s

Al Monds

1926 is a good start year.
In 1919 all 32 counties participated for the first time.
It has been largely constant since apart from Kilkenny.
Also Limerick and Fermanagh relegated themselves to Junior status for a time in the 50's and 60'.
There may have been other exceptions but not many.

laoisman11

Al Monds wrote: »

1926 is a good start year.
In 1919 all 32 counties participated for the first time.
It has been largely constant since apart from Kilkenny.
Also Limerick and Fermanagh relegated themselves to Junior status for a time in the 50's and 60'.
There may have been other exceptions but not many.

Didn't realize that about Limerick and Fermanagh, thanks.

laoisman11

Mayo v Kerry promises to be a really intriguing game. Kerry had been written off early in the season but have quietly and efficiently made their way to an All-Ireland semi-final. Mayo have been there-or-thereabouts in the last few years, but have found it extremely difficult to take the final step to capturing Sam.

The last 10 meetings between the sides is not in favour of the Mayo men, with 7 wins for Kerry and 1 drawn game. In the games played in the last 10 years, Mayo have lost all 4 games, and by an average margin of over 8 points. However, this is not the Kerry side of the mid-2000's and it has to be said that Mayo's commitment, driven on by James Horan, appears to have improved dramatically in the last few years.

Date| Comp| Stage| Replay| Team1| G1| P1| Team2| G2| P2| Venue
1951-08-12| SFC| s| | Mayo |1 |5 |Kerry |1 |5 |Croke P
1951-09-09| SFC| s| r | Mayo |2 |4 |Kerry |1 |5 |Croke P
1969-08-10| SFC| s| | Kerry | |14 |Mayo |1 |10 |Croke P
1981-08-09| SFC| s| | Kerry |2 |19 |Mayo |1 |6 |Croke P
1996-08-11| SFC| s| | Mayo |2 |13 |Kerry |1 |10 |Croke P
1997-09-28| SFC| f| | Kerry | |13 |Mayo |1 |7 |Croke P
2004-09-26| SFC| f | | Kerry |1 |20 |Mayo |2 |9 |Croke P
2005-08-07| SFC| q| | Kerry |2 |15 |Mayo | |18 |Croke P
2006-09-17| SFC| f| | Kerry |4 |15 |Mayo |3 |5 |Croke P
2011-08-21| SFC| s| | Kerry |1 |20 |Mayo |1 |11 |Croke P

In terms of rating points, only 0.06 points separate the sides. Kerry do have a slightly better historical record though, and this tips the balance in their favour, but only just. Kerry to win by 1 point.

Al Monds

I hope you're wrong Laois Man.
And I hope Mayo win the All Ireland.
Mayo are suffering a 63 year long depression and its getting contagious.

laoisman11

Al Monds wrote: »

I hope you're wrong Laois Man.
And I hope Mayo win the All Ireland.
Mayo are suffering a 63 year long depression and its getting contagious.

I hope so too, they've had years of heartbreak. As I've already been elected an honorory Mayo man, it'd be my duty to spend a few weeks around Ballyhaunis/Claremorris when they do finally accept the cup.......

laoisman11

Absolutely no change in the ratings following one of the matches of the year. All to play for again next weekend.

#|Δ|Team|Rating points
*1|-|Dublin|102,83
*2|-|Mayo|99,41
*3|-|Kerry|99,35
*4|-|Donegal|98,05
5|-|Monaghan|92,60
6|-|Cork|91,95
7|-|Armagh|90,93
8|-|Tyrone|90,50
9|-|Kildare|88,93
10|-|Meath|87,31
11|-|Galway|85,56
12|-|Derry|85,00
13|-|Roscommon|84,30
14|-|Laois|83,57
15|-|Tipperary|83,18
16|-|Down|82,14
17|-|Louth|79,14
18|-|Cavan|79,08
19|-|Wexford|76,79
20|-|Clare|76,04
21|-|Sligo|75,99
22|-|Westmeath|74,50
23|-|Longford|74,17
24|-|Fermanagh|72,87
25|-|Limerick|72,62
26|-|Antrim|70,57
27|-|Wicklow|70,05
28|-|Leitrim|69,68
29|-|Offaly|67,42
30|-|London|63,68
31|-|Carlow|63,20
32|-|Waterford|62,63
33|-|New York|57,54
*Teams with asterisk still in the championship

jimbo32123

WHATS THE STORY THIS WEEKEND laoisman11??

laoisman11

jimbo32123 wrote: »

WHATS THE STORY THIS WEEKEND laoisman11??

Will have something for you tomorrow jimbo, have to put some graphics together.....

seligehgit

Yeah what's your predictions for this weekend Laoisman?

laoisman11

Kerry (99,35) v Mayo (99,41)

I had a feeling that Mayo v Kerry was going to be really intriguing, and it was a roller-coaster of a game. How both teams respond to the draw will have a big say on the result, with Kerry, in my opinion, having bigger questions to ask of themselves. Mayo just need to find a way to close out the game.

I won't reproduce the last 10 fixtures (described above) but I have been working on a new way to present the results.



As the rating points haven't changed since the drawn game, the prediction remains the same. Personally, I feel that Kerry have slightly more of an advantage playing in the Gaelic Grounds, but that Mayo have shown Kerry that Mayo are the better side, and therefore I'd go for Mayo. However, the ranking system still points to Kerry. Kerry to win by 1 point.

Dublin (102,83) v Donegal (98,05)

Can Jim devise a system to stop the Dub's marauding attacks? He'll have to, and ensure that Donegal score 20+ points as well. Difficult to see happening somehow. The sides have only met 4 times in the championship, with the latest 2 games being wins for Dublin. Donegal won the first encounter when taking the title in 1992,

Date| Comp| Stage| Replay| Team1| G1| P1| Team2| G2| P2| Venue
1992-09-20| SFC| f| |Dublin |0 |14 |Donegal |0 |18 |Croke P
2002-08-05| SFC| q| |Dublin |2 |8 |Donegal |0 |14 |Croke P
2002-08-17| SFC| q| r |Dublin |1 |14 |Donegal |0 |07 |Croke P
2011-08-28| SFC| s| |Dublin |0 |8 |Donegal |0 |06 |Croke P



Despite the general perception that Dublin are miles ahead of everyone else, the ranking system predicts a 4 point win for Dublin.

Stoner

Dublin Vs Donegal in 2002 is interesting.

Same two teams, same venue, the draw and the Dublin win with such a gap between the the two points.

If i remember correctly there was a lot of talk at the time about that Donegal team and how good the forward line of Sweeney, Devenney and Roper was coming into the first game.

There was a draw both teams were moved even closer together and more difficult to separate by the pundits.

For debate.

Do these two points on the graph in 2002 show one potential flaw in the process?

laoisman11

Stoner wrote: »

Do these two points on the graph in 2002 show one potential flaw in the process?

The average result of the 2 games in 2002 probably paints a closer reflection of each team's relative standings at that point in time. Overall, however, there are often outliers - I am trying to find a better way to use these outliers to return predictions with better accuracy.

laoisman11

A major shuffle at the top of the ranking table after the All-Ireland semi-finals this weekend.

* Kerry gained 1.6 rating points and moved up 1 place in the rankings after their extra-time win over Mayo.

* Donegal defied everyone's expectations (Jim's the man!) and overcame the All-Ireland champions. They not only overcame Dublin, they totally subdued them, and in winning by more than 5 points, they further increased the rating points gained from this win. In fact, the rating point exchange of 4.56 points was the highest exchanged in this years championship, making this result the biggest shock of the 2014 SFC from the rankings perspective. Donegal now occupy no. 1 position and will be favourites for the title.

* Dublin and Mayo will keep 3rd and 4th position, respectively, no matter what the outcome of the All-Ireland final will be.

#|Δ|Team|Rating points
*1|▲▲▲|Donegal|102,61
*2|▲|Kerry|100,95
3|▼▼|Dublin|98,27
4|▼▼|Mayo|97,81
5|-|Monaghan|92,60
6|-|Cork|91,95
7|-|Armagh|90,93
8|-|Tyrone|90,50
9|-|Kildare|88,93
10|-|Meath|87,31
11|-|Galway|85,56
12|-|Derry|85,00
13|-|Roscommon|84,30
14|-|Laois|83,57
15|-|Tipperary|83,18
16|-|Down|82,14
17|-|Louth|79,14
18|-|Cavan|79,08
19|-|Wexford|76,79
20|-|Clare|76,04
21|-|Sligo|75,99
22|-|Westmeath|74,50
23|-|Longford|74,17
24|-|Fermanagh|72,87
25|-|Limerick|72,62
26|-|Antrim|70,57
27|-|Wicklow|70,05
28|-|Leitrim|69,68
29|-|Offaly|67,42
30|-|London|63,68
31|-|Carlow|63,20
32|-|Waterford|62,63
33|-|New York|57,54
*Teams with asterisk still in the championship

keane2097

How strongly favoured based on the ranking difference would Donegal be? What will happen to the rankings for various outcomes in the final?

laoisman11

keane2097 wrote: »

How strongly favoured based on the ranking difference would Donegal be? What will happen to the rankings for various outcomes in the final?

There is a rating point difference of 1.66 between the teams, which would normally translate to a 1 point win for Donegal.

However, recent results between the teams and overall form from this year's championship may also influence the prediction. I should have a bit of time later in the week/early next week to look at this in more detail.

laoisman11

Kerry (100,95) v Donegal (102,61)

And so the final approaches.

As I mentioned earlier, given the rating point difference between the 2 teams, the overall prediction is for a 1 point win for Donegal.

We can also look at more recent results between the teams to perhaps get a better idea of the possible outcome. The sides have only met on one previous occasion in the championship.

Date| Comp| Level| Stage| Team1| G1| P1| Team2| G2| P2| Venue
2012-08-05 | SFC | All | quarter-final | Donegal |1 |12 |Kerry |1 |10 |Croke Park

However, there have been numerous meetings between the sides in the League in recent years. The graph below shows all the games (the SFC game is noted) between the sides, with more recent results more heavily shaded. It is noticeable that in some of the recent meetings the rating points advantage held by Kerry did not translate into a win.



We can also look at the form in this year's championship. The graph below shows the both the normalised score and the rating points gained for each team during the course of the championship. To explain: the normalised score means the score difference after the match minus the expected score difference as calculated using the average of all games in the SFC. So in Kerry's first game, they won by 4 points less than the ranking system predicted. The red line indicates the rating points gained per game. (My computer has decided that the months of the year are to be in French.........I'm working on it!)



It seems that Kerry (apart from the Cork game) have been performing consistently, and their results do not deviate much from the expected. Donegal, apart from the Armagh blip, have been performing slightly ahead of their expected performances, with the result against Dublin being an exceptionally good result.

This seems to indicate that, on average, Donegal are operating at a level slightly higher than that indicated by the rating point difference between them and their opponents. However, the semi-final win over Dublin resulted in Donegal gaining 4,56 rating points, the largest point exchange of this year's championship, and therefore their overall rating points may be slightly over-valued. Nevertheless, even if they had not gained extra rating points for their >5 point win over Dublin, Donegal's rating points would still be higher than Kerry's.

It is difficult to draw any further concrete conclusions from the recent games between the sides or from their respective results in this year's championship. So the prediction remains: a 1 point win for Donegal.

laoisman11

Just a quick note on how the outcome of the final will affect Kerry and Donegal in terms of rating points. As I mentioned earlier, Dublin and Mayo will retain 3rd and 4th place, respectively, irrespective of the outcome of this Sunday's game.

Outcome of final| Kerry | Donegal
Kerry win by > 5 | 104.88 | 98.68
Kerry win by 5 or less | 103.57 | 99.99
Drawn game | 101.57 | 101.99
Donegal win by 5 or less | 99.57 | 103.99
Donegal win by > 5 | 98.88 | 104.68

laoisman11

Rankings after the 2014 championship..........

#|Δ|Team|Rating points
1|▲|Kerry|103,57
2|▼|Donegal|99,99
3|-|Dublin|98,27
4|-|Mayo|97,81
5|-|Monaghan|92,60
6|-|Cork|91,95
7|-|Armagh|90,93
8|-|Tyrone|90,50
9|-|Kildare|88,93
10|-|Meath|87,31
11|-|Galway|85,56
12|-|Derry|85,00
13|-|Roscommon|84,30
14|-|Laois|83,57
15|-|Tipperary|83,18
16|-|Down|82,14
17|-|Louth|79,14
18|-|Cavan|79,08
19|-|Wexford|76,79
20|-|Clare|76,04
21|-|Sligo|75,99
22|-|Westmeath|74,50
23|-|Longford|74,17
24|-|Fermanagh|72,87
25|-|Limerick|72,62
26|-|Antrim|70,57
27|-|Wicklow|70,05
28|-|Leitrim|69,68
29|-|Offaly|67,42
30|-|London|63,68
31|-|Carlow|63,20
32|-|Waterford|62,63
33|-|New York|57,54

Fr Tod Umptious

Thanks for all the insight and analysis all year laoisman11