Football ranking table

OldMrBrennan83

I think it's safe to say at this stage that John Evans hasn't worked out.

Brilliant work with all that too Laoisman.

Cavan_King

That table to me shows how unfair the provincial system is. Five of the top 12 teams in the country are in Ulster, six of the top 13 and 8 of the top 19.

threeball

Cavan_King wrote: »

That table to me shows how unfair the provincial system is. Five of the top 12 teams in the country are in Ulster, six of the top 13 and 8 of the top 19.

The provincials are a joke. A championship based off the league position is the fairest option, reduces the runners in the field and gives continuity which makes it a more appealing sport to follow for the neutral. The current system is a mess and not at all conducive to attracting attention from the casual sportsfan.

OldMrBrennan83

A fair system doesn't give a load of old suits power though.

spakman

Cavan_King wrote: »

That table to me shows how unfair the provincial system is. Five of the top 12 teams in the country are in Ulster, six of the top 13 and 8 of the top 19.

2 of the top 5 are from Connacht, more than any other province.
What's that saying about statistics...?

laoisman11

spakman wrote: »

2 of the top 5 are from Connacht, more than any other province.
What's that saying about statistics...?

And 11 of the top 33 are from Leinster

theoneeyedman

spakman wrote: »

2 of the top 5 are from Connacht, more than any other province.
What's that saying about statistics...?

3 out of the top 10 (top 9 in fact), with c. 11% of the population. Given the fact that economic activity is hugely concentrated on the East Coast, it's a remarkable achievement.

Boom__Boom

OldMrBrennan83 wrote: »

A fair system doesn't give a load of old suits power though.

Between the various provincial committee positions and those actually employed by the provincial councils, there is a serious bedrock of establishment GAA folk for whom the provincial system is a perfect system.

Any time I hear someone in the GAA establishment going on about protecting the provincial structures, I automatically wonder how they themselves have benefitted from the provincial structure or would lose out if the provincial structures (including the councils) were abolished.

If there was any proper review of the provincial councils, it would expose an awful lot of duplicated effort,waste and inefficiency. One blatant example will be seen in the next few weeks where there will be separate media launches of the Munster championship, the Ulster championship, the Connacht championship and the Leinster championship. There will also be a separate launch of the All-Ireland.

I could rant about this for ages but it just annoys me that there is so much wasted time, effort and money plus sub-optimum competition structures and the main reason for it is just so that the committee men can all have their committee positions and titles.

theoneeyedman

Boom__Boom wrote: »

Between the various provincial committee positions and those actually employed by the provincial councils, there is a serious bedrock of establishment GAA folk for whom the provincial system is a perfect system.

Any time I hear someone in the GAA establishment going on about protecting the provincial structures, I automatically wonder how they themselves have benefitted from the provincial structure....

If there was any proper review of the provincial councils, it would expose an awful lot of duplicated effort,waste and inefficiency. One blatant example will be seen in the next few weeks where there will be separate media launches of the Munster championship, the Ulster championship, the Connacht championship and the Leinster championship. There will also be a separate launch of the All-Ireland.

.

Not to mention launching Munster Hurling Championship, Leinster Hurling Championship, FBD league, Mc Kenna Cup etc etc....
Turkeys don't vote for Christmas.... Those expenses and dinners won't spend themselves you know!

conor05

Which counties Would be in the top 16 (allowing for 32 counties) in both football and hurling ranking tables??

Dublin
Galway
Cork
Clare
Laois (just about in both)
Kerry ( would their hurlers be in the top 16?) I’d imagine so.

Heraldoffreeent

conor05 wrote: »

Which counties Would be in the top 16 (allowing for 32 counties) in both football and hurling ranking tables??

Dublin
Galway
Cork
Clare
Laois (just about in both)
Kerry ( would their hurlers be in the top 16?) I’d imagine so.

Tipp? and maybe Westmeath and Carlow?

OldMrBrennan83

Heraldoffreeent wrote: »

Tipp? and maybe Westmeath and Carlow?

Carlow would be well off top 16 in football.

Heraldoffreeent

OldMrBrennan83 wrote: »

Carlow would be well off top 16 in football.

Probably true, although the Limerick Post puts them 10th!!

https://www.limerickpost.ie/2019/01/05/hurling-power-rankings-ahead-of-2019-championship/

Bonniedog

100% of the top one are Leinster.

Bonniedog

conor05 wrote: »

Which counties Would be in the top 16 (allowing for 32 counties) in both football and hurling ranking tables??

Dublin
Galway
Cork
Clare
Laois (just about in both)
Kerry ( would their hurlers be in the top 16?) I’d imagine so.

Westies.

laoisman11

I was hoping that there wouldn’t be any shocks last weekend as then I could have postponed updating the table to next week (as there wouldn’t have been any major movement), but Limerick upset the odds (and Offaly, Waterford and Wicklow were not far off either!).

• Limerick took a massive 9 rating points from Tipperary after their raid in Thurles, with Tipp dropping to their lowest ranking since July 2012
• There was a minor gain for Louth following their win over Wexford
• No rating points were exchanged after victories by either Galway, Mayo, Kildare, Clare, Meath or Tyrone

I will post a prediction output later in the week for next weekend's games.

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 107.30 | 0.00
2 | = | Tyrone | 105.54 | 0.00
3 | = | Kerry | 102.07 | 0.00
4 | = | Mayo | 101.09 | 0.00
5 | = | Galway | 100.29 | 0.00
6 | = | Monaghan | 97.44 | 0.00
7 | = | Donegal | 94.86 | 0.00
8 | = | Meath | 89.47 | 0.00
9 | = | Roscommon | 87.91 | 0.00
10 | = | Kildare | 87.49 | 0.00
11 | = | Cavan | 87.46 | 0.00
12 | = | Fermanagh | 84.86 | 0.00
13 | = | Armagh | 84.67 | 0.00
14 | = | Clare | 83.48 | 0.00
15 | = | Cork | 82.85 | 0.00
16 | = | Laois | 81.94 | 0.00
17 | = | Westmeath | 80.43 | 0.00
18 | = | Down | 80.04 | 0.00
19 | = | Derry | 76.16 | 0.00
20 | ▲ | Longford | 76.01 | 0.00
21 | ▲ | Carlow | 75.31 | 0.00
22 | ▲ | Louth | 74.26 | 0.93
23 | ▲ | Offaly | 71.79 | 0.00
24 | ▲ | Leitrim | 70.72 | 0.00
25 | ▼ 5 | Tipperary | 67.03 | -9.00
26 | ▲ 5 | Limerick | 66.83 | 9.00
27 | ▼ | Sligo | 65.73 | 0.00
28 | ▼ | Antrim | 64.63 | 0.00
29 | ▼ | Waterford | 63.26 | 0.00
30 | = | Wicklow | 59.34 | 0.00
31 | ▼ 2 | Wexford | 59.06 | -0.93
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 52.06 | 0.00

laoisman11

The first output from the prediction model for the championship of 2019 - and 2 weekends for the price of 1, it's a bargain!! PDF output attached.

Some things that stood out for me:

• Cavan have performed better than expected in 9 of their last 10 games. As they lost 7 of those, their rating score might be under-estimated
• While Sligo seem to traditionally do well against Galway, they are on a horrific run of form
• Carlow have had 10 attempts to get the better of Meath in championship - result: 9 losses and 1 draw
• Westmeath are on a good run of form this year; Laois's poor form could be explained by the fact that they were over-rated coming off last year's championship
• Kildare's recent dip in form has to be a worry but Longford have not beaten them in championship since 1967

tl;dr
Monaghan by 0.5
Galway by 9.9
Armagh by 0.2
Mayo by 6.2
Meath by 7.6
Dublin by 10.3
Tyrone by 11.6
Laois by 0.8
Kildare by 4.2
Donegal by 3.3

Charles Babbage

A win by a point in extra time for Armagh isn't too far off 0.2!

laoisman11

Another shock this weekend, although there was never going to be much in it between neighbours.

• Cavan took 4.40 rating points from Monaghan and jumped 2 places in the rankings - could they be dark horses to reach the Super 8s?; they are now at their highest position since July 2016 while Monaghan drop out of the top 6 for the first time since July 2017
• Armagh exchanged 2.67 rating points with Down following their dramatic extra-time win
• No rating points were exchanged in the Sligo-Galway game

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 107.30 | 0.00
2 | = | Tyrone | 105.54 | 0.00
3 | = | Kerry | 102.07 | 0.00
4 | = | Mayo | 101.09 | 0.00
5 | = | Galway | 100.29 | 0.00
6 | ▲ | Donegal | 94.86 | 0.00
7 | ▼ | Monaghan | 93.04 | -4.40
8 | ▲ 2 | Cavan | 91.86 | 4.40
9 | ▼ | Meath | 89.47 | 0.00
10 | ▼ | Roscommon | 87.91 | 0.00
11 | ▼ | Kildare | 87.49 | 0.00
12 | ▲ | Armagh | 87.34 | 2.67
13 | ▼ | Fermanagh | 84.86 | 0.00
14 | = | Clare | 83.48 | 0.00
15 | = | Cork | 82.85 | 0.00
16 | = | Laois | 81.94 | 0.00
17 | = | Westmeath | 80.43 | 0.00
18 | = | Down | 77.37 | -2.67
19 | = | Derry | 76.16 | 0.00
20 | = | Longford | 76.01 | 0.00
21 | = | Carlow | 75.31 | 0.00
22 | = | Louth | 74.26 | 0.00
23 | = | Offaly | 71.79 | 0.00
24 | = | Leitrim | 70.72 | 0.00
25 | = | Tipperary | 67.03 | 0.00
26 | = | Limerick | 66.83 | 0.00
27 | = | Sligo | 65.73 | 0.00
28 | = | Antrim | 64.63 | 0.00
29 | = | Waterford | 63.26 | 0.00
30 | = | Wicklow | 59.34 | 0.00
31 | = | Wexford | 59.06 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 52.06 | 0.00

Charles Babbage

Rossies to emulate Cavan and move up into the top 8.

Strabanimal

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Rossies to emulate Cavan and move up into the top 8.

I think everyone knows Roscommon are a better team than Cavan. Considerably so.

Derry are also a lot better than where they are too.

Stats dont back me up however.

Johner

Strabanimal wrote: »

I think everyone knows Roscommon are a better team than Cavan. Considerably so.

Derry are also a lot better than where they are too.

Stats dont back me up however.

Wouldn't say there's much in it at all these days.

nice_guy80

Roscommon would still be in division 1 only for a push

manofwisdom

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Roscommon would still be in division 1 only for a push

If Conor Cox had played in round 1 v Mayo...

tanko

Johner wrote: »

Wouldn't say there's much in it at all these days.

I think Roscommon are still a fair bit ahead of Cavan. They won a Connacht title two years ago and reached the super 8's last year.
I couldn't see Cavan going over to Castlebar and beating Mayo in a championship game.
The game against Armagh will show where Cavan stand, reaching an Ulster final would be a serious boost. It was great to beat Monaghan at long last but they were really poor.

Syferus

Johner wrote: »

Wouldn't say there's much in it at all these days.

I've seen enough of both and I'm not going to poor mouth you, Roscommon are a good bit ahead of Cavan.

Even with our putrid performance in Breffni we were in a dead heat until Harney got harshly sent off by David Gough. Cavan were like a D3 team in attack, incredibly wasteful even though they were under little pressure for many shots. If you think Mayo had a lot of wides on Saturday, Cavan in that game were at another level on that count.

I think Graham may bring them on a level if he's left there and gets proper financial support, but they need more guile in their link-up play and shooting before I could say we're not the better side.

laoisman11

A shock that very few saw coming lit up what otherwise might have been a dull enough weekend (although Longford might argue about that if they finish the job next weekend!)

• Roscommon took 6 rating points from Mayo and now sit behind them in the rankings
• Laois exchanged 2.7 rating points with Westmeath in a case of third time lucky
• A draw gains Longford 2.3 rating points from Kildare
• Meath’s huge win means they swap 0.25 rating points with Carlow

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 107.30 | 0.00
2 | = | Tyrone | 105.54 | 0.00
3 | = | Kerry | 102.07 | 0.00
4 | ▲ | Galway | 100.29 | 0.00
5 | ▲ | Donegal | 97.26 | 2.40
6 | ▼ 2 | Mayo | 95.09 | -6.00
7 | ▲ 3 | Roscommon | 93.91 | 6.00
8 | ▼ | Monaghan | 93.04 | 0.00
9 | ▼ | Cavan | 91.86 | 0.00
10 | ▼ | Meath | 89.72 | 0.25
11 | ▲ | Armagh | 87.34 | 0.00
12 | ▼ | Kildare | 85.19 | -2.30
13 | ▲ 3 | Laois | 84.64 | 2.70
14 | = | Clare | 83.48 | 0.00
15 | = | Cork | 82.85 | 0.00
16 | ▼ 3 | Fermanagh | 82.46 | -2.40
17 | ▲ 3 | Longford | 78.31 | 2.30
18 | ▼ | Westmeath | 77.73 | -2.70
19 | ▼ | Down | 77.37 | 0.00
20 | ▼ | Derry | 76.16 | 0.00
21 | = | Carlow | 75.06 | -0.25
22 | = | Louth | 74.26 | 0.00
23 | = | Offaly | 71.79 | 0.00
24 | = | Leitrim | 70.72 | 0.00
25 | = | Tipperary | 67.03 | 0.00
26 | = | Limerick | 66.83 | 0.00
27 | = | Sligo | 65.73 | 0.00
28 | = | Antrim | 64.63 | 0.00
29 | = | Waterford | 63.26 | 0.00
30 | = | Wicklow | 59.34 | 0.00
31 | = | Wexford | 59.06 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 52.06 | 0.00

laoisman11

Prediction model output attached, a few points below......I am off next week so not sure if I will be able to update the ranking table or give next weekend's predictions........

• Cavan's good form continued with the win over Monaghan, and they do look the form horse compared to Armagh who can be inconsistent
• Kildare have been +5 points below form in their last 4 games, can they correct this or can Longford pull off another giant slaying?

tl;dr
Cork by 9.5
Kerry by 6.9
Cavan by 1.1
Kildare by 3.7

laoisman11

Prediction model output attached for this weekend's games.......

I prepared this last week, and I gave a Kildare a 4 point win over Longford (I also prepared one where Longford beat Kildare, just in case!). As they won by more, it might have slightly affected the model output but not by so much I reckon. This is also why there is no prediction output for the Cavan-Armagh game, I wasn't expecting any replays!

Highlights for me:

• London have been doing well in 2019, maybe over-performing by 6 or 7 points per game; if Offaly are not careful, they could be caught
• Kildare haven't beaten Dublin in league nor championship since 2000
• In the 10 previous meetings of Down and Tipp (9 league, 1 championship), the record stands at Down 6, Tipp 1, and 3 draws
• Both Monaghan and Fermanagh have been below par in their last few games, but I'd expect Monaghan to gain revenge for last year's defeat
• A first ever championship meeting for Westmeath and Waterford (the league record stands at 8-0 for Westmeath), Westmeath are the form team

tl;dr
Offaly by 11.7
Leitrim by 4.8
Derry by 5.4
Louth by 3.7
Tyrone by 2.4
Meath by 3.5
Dublin by 7.6
Down by 4.7
Monaghan by 5.4
Longford by 0.5
Westmeath by 7.7

laoisman11

Things are definitely starting to heat up in the championship…..can Donegal be the ones to stop the Dubs? Can Monaghan, Tyrone and Mayo (all present in the top 10) navigate their way to the Super 8s? Do Kildare or Armagh have more to offer?

The changes below are a combination of last weekend’s and the previous weekend’s games.

• An enormous gain (7 places) for Antrim in their big win over Louth, they take 8.29 rating points, while Louth drop 5 places
• Carlow offered Longford 5.16 rating points after being heavily beaten – in doing so, Longford recovered all of the rating points (and some) lost to Kildare
• Donegal took 4.66 rating points from Tyrone and push into 3rd spot
• Meath gained 2.98 rating points after a bonus point win over Laois
• Cavan move to 7th, their highest ranking since April 2002, following their bonus point win over Armagh

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 107.30 | 0.00
2 | ▲ | Kerry | 102.07 | 0.00
3 | ▲ 2 | Donegal | 101.92 | 4.66
4 | ▼ 2 | Tyrone | 100.88 | -4.66
5 | ▼ | Galway | 100.29 | 0.00
6 | = | Mayo | 95.09 | 0.00
7 | ▲ 2 | Cavan | 94.64 | 2.78
8 | ▼ | Roscommon | 93.91 | 0.00
9 | ▼ | Monaghan | 93.32 | 0.28
10 | = | Meath | 92.70 | 2.98
11 | ▲ | Kildare | 87.63 | 2.44
12 | ▼ | Armagh | 84.56 | -2.78
13 | ▲ | Clare | 83.48 | 0.00
14 | ▲ | Cork | 82.85 | 0.00
15 | ▲ | Fermanagh | 82.18 | -0.28
16 | ▼ 3 | Laois | 81.66 | -2.98
17 | = | Longford | 81.03 | 2.72
18 | = | Westmeath | 77.73 | 0.00
19 | = | Down | 77.70 | 0.33
20 | = | Derry | 76.43 | 0.27
21 | ▲ 7 | Antrim | 72.92 | 8.29
22 | ▲ | Offaly | 71.79 | 0.00
23 | ▲ | Leitrim | 70.84 | 0.12
24 | ▼ 3 | Carlow | 69.90 | -5.16
25 | ▲ | Limerick | 66.83 | 0.00
26 | ▼ | Tipperary | 66.70 | -0.33
27 | ▼ 5| Louth | 65.97 | -8.29
28 | ▼ | Sligo | 65.73 | 0.00
29 | = | Waterford | 63.26 | 0.00
30 | = | Wicklow | 59.22 | -0.12
31 | = | Wexford | 58.79 | -0.27
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 52.06 | 0.00