Football ranking table

celt262

Tipperary have fairly dropped down from being in a semi final a few years ago.

pipelaser

Meath very much an unknown at this moment as well, I doubt they're that much better than Kildare, and I think Monaghan would beat them 8 times out of 10...
If Meath lose to Dublin by 10 points or less, do they still gain points on this scoring system?

Hammer Archer

celt262 wrote: »

Tipperary have fairly dropped down from being in a semi final a few years ago.

Down 20 places in less than 3 years by the looks of it. They were never going to be able to maintain such a high ranking given the county they are. But their loss to Limerick resulted in a huge drop for them.

tanko

pipelaser wrote: »

Meath very much an unknown at this moment as well, I doubt they're that much better than Kildare, and I think Monaghan would beat them 8 times out of 10...
If Meath lose to Dublin by 10 points or less, do they still gain points on this scoring system?

Maybe im wrong but i dont think a team ever gains any points for losing a match even by a point to Dublin. They would for a draw tho.

28064212

tanko wrote: »

Maybe im wrong but i dont think a team ever gains any points for losing a match even by a point to Dublin. They would for a draw tho.

Correct. The rankings are based off the IRB's rules

Q. Do sides earn credit for losing narrowly to higher rated opponents?
No they don't. In this system, you can't win points for losing, or lose points for winning. While it may be attractive to award points for heroic defeats, it is less appealing to deduct points from a team that has won. If the close match was an indication of a genuine shift in relative strength, this would be reflected in other results.

laoisman11

pipelaser wrote: »

Meath very much an unknown at this moment as well, I doubt they're that much better than Kildare, and I think Monaghan would beat them 8 times out of 10...
If Meath lose to Dublin by 10 points or less, do they still gain points on this scoring system?

I agree with you on the Kildare - Meath comparison, although Meath did get promoted from Div 2 while Kildare did not.

No rating points gained for losing unfortunately!

laoisman11

Musical chairs in the bottom half of the top 8 after Roscommon's surprise win in the Connacht final!

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 107.30 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 102.07 | 0.00
3 | = | Donegal | 101.92 | 0.00
4 | = | Tyrone | 100.88 | 0.00
5 | ▲ 3 | Roscommon | 98.79 | 4.88
6 | ▼ | Galway | 95.41 | -4.88
7 | ▼ | Mayo | 95.09 | 0.00
8 | ▼ | Cavan | 94.64 | 0.00
9 | = | Monaghan | 93.32 | 0.00
10 | = | Meath | 92.70 | 0.00
11 | = | Kildare | 87.63 | 0.00
12 | = | Armagh | 84.56 | 0.00
13 | = | Clare | 83.48 | 0.00
14 | = | Cork | 82.85 | 0.00
15 | = | Fermanagh | 82.18 | 0.00
16 | = | Laois | 81.66 | 0.00
17 | = | Longford | 81.03 | 0.00
18 | = | Westmeath | 77.73 | 0.00
19 | = | Down | 77.70 | 0.00
20 | = | Derry | 76.43 | 0.00
21 | = | Antrim | 72.92 | 0.00
22 | = | Offaly | 71.79 | 0.00
23 | = | Leitrim | 70.84 | 0.00
24 | = | Carlow | 69.90 | 0.00
25 | = | Limerick | 66.83 | 0.00
26 | = | Tipperary | 66.70 | 0.00
27 | = | Louth | 65.97 | 0.00
28 | = | Sligo | 65.73 | 0.00
29 | = | Waterford | 63.26 | 0.00
30 | = | Wicklow | 59.22 | 0.00
31 | = | Wexford | 58.79 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 52.06 | 0.00

laoisman11

Attached is the prediction model output for this weekend, along with what might be some interesting points below.

• Antrim have never beaten Kildare in their 6 previous league and championship meetings but which Kildare will show up this time?
• Derry seem to be on a roll recently, and home advantage should certainly help against Laois
• Can Longford continue the giant-slaying act against Tyrone? Other teams have come undone here.......but the model says NO
• Monaghan are on quite a poor run of form, but they always seem to have enough for Armagh
• A first-ever championship meeting for Clare and Leitrim
• Zero wins from 14 encounters (league and championship) for Limerick against Westmeath, I don't expect that to change here
• Meath have done better than expected in 5 of their last 6 championship run-ins with Dublin
• Donegal are really on an excellent run of form, and they seem to nearly always do well against Cavan
• Another first-time meeting, this time between Offaly and Sligo; Sligo have lost their last 10 games

tl;dr
Kerry by 5.3
Mayo by 4.9
Kildare by 4.2
Derry by 0.7
Tyrone by 6.8
Monaghan by 3.5
Clare by 3.1
Westmeath by 6.9
Dublin by 5.5
Donegal by 1.6
Offaly by 4.1

laoisman11

And so it goes; we are down to 16, with 12 vying for the last 4 places in the Super 8s!

• Armagh were the huge winners following a bonus point win away over a higher-ranked team, they gained 8.03 rating points for their efforts
• Laois took 2.55 rating points from Derry with a fine away win
• Offaly, Clare and Donegal also had gains, with Donegal moving into 2nd place, the first time in 4 years

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 107.30 | 0.00
2 | ▲ | Donegal | 103.46 | 1.54
3 | ▼ | Kerry | 102.07 | 0.00
4 | = | Tyrone | 100.88 | 0.00
5 | = | Roscommon | 98.79 | 0.00
6 | = | Galway | 95.41 | 0.00
7 | = | Mayo | 95.21 | 0.12
8 | = | Cavan | 93.10 | -1.54
9 | ▲ | Meath | 92.70 | 0.00
10 | ▲ 2 | Armagh | 92.59 | 8.03
11 | = | Kildare | 88.62 | 0.99
12 | ▼ 3 | Monaghan | 85.29 | -8.03
13 | = | Clare | 85.09 | 1.61
14 | ▲ 2 | Laois | 84.21 | 2.55
15 | ▼ | Cork | 82.85 | 0.00
16 | ▼ | Fermanagh | 82.18 | 0.00
17 | = | Longford | 81.03 | 0.00
18 | = | Westmeath | 78.06 | 0.33
19 | = | Down | 77.58 | -0.12
20 | = | Derry | 73.88 | -2.55
21 | ▲ | Offaly | 73.57 | 1.78
22 | ▼ | Antrim | 71.93 | -0.99
23 | ▲ | Carlow | 69.90 | 0.00
24 | ▼ | Leitrim | 69.23 | -1.61
25 | ▲ | Tipperary | 66.70 | 0.00
26 | ▼ | Limerick | 66.50 | -0.33
27 | = | Louth | 65.97 | 0.00
28 | = | Sligo | 63.95 | -1.78
29 | = | Waterford | 63.26 | 0.00
30 | = | Wicklow | 59.22 | 0.00
31 | = | Wexford | 58.79 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 52.06 | 0.00

laoisman11

I didn't get time to post the prediction model output last week but it went along the general lines of this weekend's results, predicting 3 point wins for Tyrone, Mayo and Laois, and a draw in the Westmeath-Clare game.

• Clare gained the most this weekend following their away win against Westmeath
• Mayo and Tyrone also increased their worth by 1.88 and 1.72 rating points, respectively
• Armagh are the highest-ranked casualty to date (10th) of this championship

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 107.30 | 0.00
2 | = | Donegal | 103.46 | 0.00
3 | ▲ | Tyrone | 102.60 | 1.72
4 | ▼ | Kerry | 102.07 | 0.00
5 | = | Roscommon | 98.79 | 0.00
6 | ▲ | Mayo | 97.09 | 1.88
7 | ▼ | Galway | 95.41 | 0.00
8 | = | Cavan | 93.10 | 0.00
9 | = | Meath | 92.70 | 0.00
10 | = | Armagh | 90.71 | -1.88
11 | ▲ 2 | Clare | 87.28 | 2.19
12 | ▼ | Kildare | 86.90 | -1.72
13 | ▼ | Monaghan | 85.29 | 0.00
14 | = | Laois | 84.48 | 0.27
15 | = | Cork | 82.85 | 0.00
16 | = | Fermanagh | 82.18 | 0.00
17 | = | Longford | 81.03 | 0.00
18 | ▲ | Down | 77.58 | 0.00
19 | ▼ | Westmeath | 75.87 | -2.19
20 | = | Derry | 73.88 | 0.00
21 | = | Offaly | 73.30 | -0.27
22 | = | Antrim | 71.93 | 0.00
23 | = | Carlow | 69.90 | 0.00
24 | = | Leitrim | 69.23 | 0.00
25 | = | Tipperary | 66.70 | 0.00
26 | = | Limerick | 66.50 | 0.00
27 | = | Louth | 65.97 | 0.00
28 | = | Sligo | 63.95 | 0.00
29 | = | Waterford | 63.26 | 0.00
30 | = | Wicklow | 59.22 | 0.00
31 | = | Wexford | 58.79 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 52.06 | 0.00

Hammer Archer

Out of interest, with Meath drawing Clare in the first championship meeting between the two, have Meath played every single team in the championship apart from London at some stage?
I think you had a list of ties that had never happened but I can't find it.

laoisman11

Hammer Archer wrote: »

Out of interest, with Meath drawing Clare in the first championship meeting between the two, have Meath played every single team in the championship apart from London at some stage?
I think you had a list of ties that had never happened but I can't find it.

The thread was here, but I need to update it as there were some errors, most notably where it says that Meath have never met Roscommon (91 All-Ireland semi-final from memory and from Liam Hayes's book).

In any case, from what I had found previously, Meath have never met Sligo nor Waterford, in addition to New York or London.

Hammer Archer

We played Sligo for the first time in 2017 in the qualifiers.
I'm pretty sure I remember us playing Waterford in the qualifiers in Navan in 2007 or 2009.

Fan of Netflix

A quick look at the rankings suggests Laois and Clare have a decent chance at beating Cork and Meath.

Dickie10

meath played waterford in 2009 and rossies again in 2006. played tipperary in an all ireland final i think

laoisman11

Hammer Archer wrote: »

We played Sligo for the first time in 2017 in the qualifiers.
I'm pretty sure I remember us playing Waterford in the qualifiers in Navan in 2007 or 2009.

Dickie10 wrote: »

meath played waterford in 2009 and rossies again in 2006. played tipperary in an all ireland final i think

I definitely need to look at this again, it seems that there were more errors than I thought!

Hammer Archer

laoisman11 wrote: »

I definitely need to look at this again, it seems that there were more errors than I thought!

Meath are down as playing Roscommon 4 times in the SFC in your table and Waterford once so I think it's pretty much spot on. Only one missing was the meeting with Sligo but that was the year you did the table.

laoisman11

Hammer Archer wrote: »

Meath are down as playing Roscommon 4 times in the SFC in your table and Waterford once so I think it's pretty much spot on. Only one missing was the meeting with Sligo but that was the year you did the table.

It seems that is depends on how the table is read, vertically and horizontally give different data.........it's a shambles

No time at all to look at this now, maybe if I get divorced.....

laoisman11

Attached the prediction model output for this weekend's games.

Some points of potential interest:

• A first-ever meeting between Laois and Cork sees Cork being tipped, even if Laois have greater rating points
• Tyrone seem to be finally picking up form, but will it last?
• On average over the last 5 meetings between Galway and Mayo, only 1 goal per game has been scored and each side has scored just over 12 points each - on only one occasion has a team managed to kick 15 points - and these were all wins for Galway!
• Another first-ever meeting, this time Meath and Clare

tl;dr
Cork by 0.9
Tyrone by 3.3
Mayo by 1.1
Meath by 3.9

Mountjoy Mugger

laoisman11 wrote: »

Attached the prediction model output for this weekend's games.

Some points of potential interest:

and these were all wins for Galway!

tl;dr

Mayo by 1.1

Eh bah gum, I hope you're right there. lad.

Charles Babbage

laoisman11 wrote: »

• Armagh are the highest-ranked casualty to date (10th) of this championship

Surely Monaghan were the highest ranked casualty in the previous round?
Certainly, if you take their position prior to the championshp.

Tyrone by 3.3

I think Cavan will perform respectably, but Tyrone will win. Hence my putting €5 on Cavan+5.

laoisman11

• Meath have hit heights not seen since Feb 2011, they now sit in 7th
• Cork’s win sees Monaghan slip to 14th, their lowest since July 2016
• Galway are the only top 8 team not in the Super 8s
• 3rd, 4th, 5th and 7th ranked are in one group of the Super 8s; 1st, 2nd, 6th and 11th in the second

For the rest of the championship, I will only show the top 16 of the table below.

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 107.30 | 0.00
2 | ▲ | Tyrone | 104.25 | 1.65
3 | ▼ | Donegal | 103.46 | 0.00
4 | = | Kerry | 102.07 | 0.00
5 | ▲ | Mayo | 99.75 | 2.66
6 | ▼ | Roscommon | 98.79 | 0.00
7 | ▲ 2 | Meath | 94.62 | 1.92
8 | ▼ | Galway | 92.75 | -2.66
9 | ▼ | Cavan | 91.45 | -1.65
10 | = | Armagh | 90.71 | 0.00
11 | ▲ 4 | Cork | 87.84 | 4.99
12 | = | Kildare | 86.90 | 0.00
13 | ▼ 2 | Clare | 85.36 | -1.92
14 | ▼ | Monaghan | 85.29 | 0.00
15 | ▲ | Fermanagh | 82.18 | 0.00
16 | ▲ | Longford | 81.03 | 0.00
17 | ▼ 3 | Laois | 79.49 | -4.99
18 | = | Down | 77.58 | 0.00
19 | = | Westmeath | 75.87 | 0.00
20 | = | Derry | 73.88 | 0.00
21 | = | Offaly | 73.30 | 0.00
22 | = | Antrim | 71.93 | 0.00
23 | = | Carlow | 69.90 | 0.00
24 | = | Leitrim | 69.23 | 0.00
25 | = | Tipperary | 66.70 | 0.00
26 | = | Limerick | 66.50 | 0.00
27 | = | Louth | 65.97 | 0.00
28 | = | Sligo | 63.95 | 0.00
29 | = | Waterford | 63.26 | 0.00
30 | = | Wicklow | 59.22 | 0.00
31 | = | Wexford | 58.79 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 52.06 | 0.00

laoisman11

Prediction model output attached.

• Roscommon's last 3 results have been really excellent, with them performing 6-7 points better than expected, while Tyrone's last 2 wins were approx. 10 points higher than expected. Something has to give, and Tyrone have not yet lost to Roscommon after 4 championship match-ups
• Dublin have been purring so far, and while Cork had huge wins over Limerick and Laois, they will face a different animal in Croke Park
• Donegal are the form team of this year, over-performing in their last 6 games. Games between Donegal and Meath have been tight for the last few years (2 points or less between them), but I think that Donegal could potentially run riot here
• The 2 league results against Mayo stand out as a black mark in Kerry's copybook and one that they would surely like to put right here. Mayo skated on thin ice in last year's qualifiers before eventually going under, but seemed slightly more assured in their navigation this year, overcoming arguably tougher challenges. A very tough one to call

tl;dr
Tyrone by 2.6
Dublin by 7.6
Donegal by 2.4
Kerry by 2.2

laoisman11

• Both Kerry and Tyrone gained well from their wins at home and away, respectively, last weekend and close the gap to Dublin
• Donegal also picked up a few crumbs in their win over Meath, but nothing for Dublin (discrimination, I know......;) )
• A bonus point win for either Kerry or Donegal this weekend might result in them pipping Dublin and breaking their stranglehold on 1st place in the rankings!

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 107.30 | 0.00
2 | = | Tyrone | 106.76 | 2.51
3 | ▲ | Kerry | 104.97 | 2.90
4 | ▼ | Donegal | 104.41 | 0.95
5 | = | Mayo | 96.85 | -2.90
6 | = | Roscommon | 96.28 | -2.51
7 | = | Meath | 93.67 | -0.95
8 | = | Galway | 92.75 | 0.00
9 | = | Cavan | 91.45 | 0.00
10 | = | Armagh | 90.71 | 0.00
11 | = | Cork | 87.84 | 0.00
12 | = | Kildare | 86.90 | 0.00
13 | = | Clare | 85.36 | 0.00
14 | = | Monaghan | 85.29 | 0.00
15 | = | Fermanagh | 82.18 | 0.00
16 | = | Longford | 81.03 | 0.00

laoisman11

Attached is the prediction model output for this weekend's games.....

• Tyrone's great run of form continues......who can stop them?
• Dublin are also on a great run in the championship and have not lost to Roscommon in their 3 previous championship meetings (and have won the last 7 games between the sides, stretching back to 2002)
• Donegal are another in-form team, and it remains to be seen if Kerry's performance against Mayo was a blip on the chart (as it appears to be currently) or if they have really discovered their touch. This for me is going to be an extremely intriguing contest
• Played 7, won 1, drew 1, lost 5 is Mayo's record against Meath. Both teams going in with poor enough form and surprisingly little between them in rating points

tl;dr
Tyrone by 5.2
Dublin by 6.6
Kerry by 2.4
Mayo by 2.1

beggars_bush

laoisman11 wrote: »

Attached is the prediction model output for this weekend's games.....

• Tyrone's great run of form continues......who can stop them?
• Dublin are also on a great run in the championship and have not lost to Roscommon in their 3 previous championship meetings (and have won the last 7 games between the sides, stretching back to 2002)
• Donegal are another in-form team, and it remains to be seen if Kerry's performance against Mayo was a blip on the chart (as it appears to be currently) or if they have really discovered their touch. This for me is going to be an extremely intriguing contest
• Played 7, won 1, drew 1, lost 5 is Mayo's record against Meath. Both teams going in with poor enough form and surprisingly little between them in rating points

tl;dr
Tyrone by 5.2
Dublin by 6.6
Kerry by 2.4
Mayo by 2.1

Last time Roscommon beat Dublin it was 2002 in Parnell Park.
Have never beaten them in their new home ground of Croker.

laoisman11

There seems to be a bit of a rift opening between the top 5 and the remaining teams, including the other 3 teams in the Super 8s

• Mayo's big win over Meath sees them gain 3.55 rating points, Meath drop 3 places to 10th
• Dublin finally pick up some rating points this year (I don't think that they have picked up any since last year's All-Ireland final!)
• Donegal made minor gains following their draw with Kerry
• No rating points were exchanged in the Tyrone-Cork game

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 107.59 | 0.29
2 | = | Tyrone | 106.76 | 0.00
3 | = | Kerry | 104.86 | -0.11
4 | = | Donegal | 104.52 | 0.11
5 | = | Mayo | 100.40 | 3.55
6 | = | Roscommon | 95.99 | -0.29
7 | ▲ | Galway | 92.75 | 0.00
8 | ▲ | Cavan | 91.45 | 0.00
9 | ▲ | Armagh | 90.71 | 0.00
10 | ▼ 3 | Meath | 90.12 | -3.55
11 | = | Cork | 87.84 | 0.00
12 | = | Kildare | 86.90 | 0.00
13 | = | Clare | 85.36 | 0.00
14 | = | Monaghan | 85.29 | 0.00
15 | = | Fermanagh | 82.18 | 0.00
16 | = | Longford | 81.03 | 0.00

laoisman11

• Donegal have been the model of consistency this championship, kicking approximately 4-5 points more than what the rating model has predicted; Mayo have been slightly erratic (poor result against Kerry followed by a big win against Meath) but home form has to mean something (even if Castlebar is not a fortress) – this has all the makings of a draw
• Meath have conceded some big scores this year, and with an exuberant attacking platform, Kerry will plan to continue that script
• Hard to call the 2 dead-rubbers as the prediction model (attached) is not made for these scenarios – Cork might have home pride to play for; Tyrone might have an eye on the semi-final one week later. Two more draws??

tl;dr
Mayo by 1.8
Kerry by 3.5
Cork by 0.1
Dublin by 0.1

laoisman11

• It may be unfair on Tyrone that they lost the most rating points this weekend, considering that they played their 2nd fifteen. But then again, saving their key players for an All-Ireland semi-final was probably more important than breaking Dublin's championship-winning streak and temporarily replacing them at the top of the rankings!
• Gains also for Mayo, Roscommon and Kerry as we narrow down to the last 4

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 112.74 | 5.15
2 | ▲ | Kerry | 105.84 | 0.98
3 | ▲ 2 | Mayo | 103.62 | 3.22
4 | ▼ 2 | Tyrone | 101.61 | -5.15
5 | ▼ | Donegal | 101.30 | -3.22
6 | = | Roscommon | 97.96 | 1.97
7 | = | Galway | 92.75 | 0.00
8 | = | Cavan | 91.45 | 0.00
9 | = | Armagh | 90.71 | 0.00
10 | = | Meath | 89.14 | -0.98
11 | ▲ | Kildare | 86.90 | 0.00
12 | ▼ | Cork | 85.87 | -1.97
13 | = | Clare | 85.36 | 0.00
14 | = | Monaghan | 85.29 | 0.00
15 | = | Fermanagh | 82.18 | 0.00
16 | = | Longford | 81.03 | 0.00

laoisman11

Apart from the 2015 replay, Dublin have had real trouble putting Mayo away like they have done with almost every other team. It looks like the rating model can pick up on this, as they are predicting a pretty nervy win - Dublin by 3.6

Kerry seem to mix the good with the bad, whereas Tyrone's recent form has been more steady (with the exception of Cork who put in better than expected showings against everyone, and with the exception of the last Super 8s game, which didn't mean anything). Looking at all previous meetings between these teams, rating difference doesn't appear to at all matter, so the model is probably taking an average of all games involving all teams - Kerry by 2