Football ranking table

laoisman11

Minor re-arranging of the deck chairs before the final (or maybe that has been the story of the last few years?). The rankings won't change should Dublin win as expected.

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 113.60 | 0.86
2 | = | Kerry | 107.99 | 2.15
3 | = | Mayo | 102.76 | -0.86
4 | ▲ | Donegal | 101.30 | 0.00
5 | ▼ | Tyrone | 99.46 | -2.15
6 | = | Roscommon | 97.96 | 0.00
7 | = | Galway | 92.75 | 0.00
8 | = | Cavan | 91.45 | 0.00

laoisman11

I would have liked to have more time to go into depth on this year's final, but time is not on my side unfortunately.

There are surely some interesting points to be pulled from the high scoring averages between Dublin and Kerry from recent meetings, and whether this might indicate a closer game than Dublin have experienced so far this year.

There might also be something on the average winning margin on the way to an All-Ireland, or on events preceding the eventual demise of 5-in-a-row seeking teams.

Also, Dublin's use of substitutes, long appreciated as the keystone of their success, appears to have changed somewhat this year, but only a proper analysis would help to separate fact from guesswork.

The prediction model output is attached; the model is going for a surprisingly low winning margin, but then again, it is always conservative. Dublin by 1.9!

laoisman11

A nice little gain for Kerry in rating points after the drawn All-Ireland final, inching them closer to the top. Of course, a win on Saturday week would see them take top spot from Dublin, who have been perched there for quite a while.

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 111.88 | -1.72
2 | = | Kerry | 109.71 | 1.72
3 | = | Mayo | 102.76 | 0.00
4 | = | Donegal | 101.30 | 0.00
5 | = | Tyrone | 99.46 | 0.00
6 | = | Roscommon | 97.96 | 0.00
7 | = | Galway | 92.75 | 0.00
8 | = | Cavan | 91.45 | 0.00

laoisman11

Not much more to add from the analysis prior to the drawn game, except that Kerry have done better than predicted in 5 of their previous 6 meetings with Dublin. The prediction model (full output attached) is still going with Dublin.

Dublin by 1.6.

laoisman11

Now that the championship dust has settled, and before the pre-league preparation begins, it is time to make a review of the winners and losers from 2019.

Big winners

1. Mayo gained 12.1 rating points, re-establishing themselves in the top 4 with a league victory and championship semi-final place after a year’s sabbatical
2. Roscommon’s Connacht final victory made up for their relegation from Division 1, and they gained 9.6 rating points in an overall successful year
3. Meath returned to the big time, getting promoted from Division 2 and reaching the Super 8s for the first time. Consequentially, they improved their worth by 8.8 rating points and 6 ranking places

Other notable mentions: Cavan, Kerry and Antrim all gained more than 6 rating points in 2019

Big losers

1. Monaghan lost 18.9 rating points and a huge 11 ranking places, losing 5 games in Division 1 and losing 2 from 2 in the championship
2. Tipperary, Carlow and Sligo all dropped between 10.2 and 11.3 rating points; between them, they won 3 of their 21 games in the league, and lost 6 from 6 in the championship

Notable mentions to: Galway, Tyrone and Laois all dropped more than 6 rating points

And finally, a special mention to Dublin, the first ever five-in-a-row champions, they have now overtaken Kerry as having held the number one rank for the longest duration in modern times (Kerry's record from the '78-'82 period was 1407 days; Dublin record, as of the 14th of September 2019 is an amazing 1470 days!).

Rank|Team|Δ Rating|Δ Ranking
1 | Dublin | 0.50 | 0
2 | Kerry | 6.08 | 2
3 | Mayo | 12.12 | 4
4 | Donegal | 5.96 | 2
5 | Tyrone | -6.83 | -3
6 | Roscommon | 9.63 | 3
7 | Galway | -6.96 | -2
8 | Cavan | 6.50 | 5
9 | Armagh | 4.03 | 1
10 | Meath | 8.80 | 6
11 | Kildare | -3.24 | -3
12 | Cork | 0.28 | 0
13 | Clare | 1.24 | 1
14 | Monaghan | -18.88 | -11
15 | Fermanagh | -1.34 | 0
16 | Longford | 1.49 | 2
17 | Laois | -6.73 | -6
18 | Down | 0.14 | 2
19 | Westmeath | 3.82 | 3
20 | Derry | 3.93 | 5
21 | Offaly | 1.48 | 2
22 | Antrim | 6.07 | 4
23 | Carlow | -10.22 | -6
24 | Leitrim | -1.21 | 0
25 | Tipperary | -11.28 | -6
26 | Limerick | 5.60 | 4
27 | Louth | 2.71 | 0
28 | Sligo | -10.18 | -7
29 | Waterford | 0.26 | -1
30 | Wicklow | -1.49 | 1
31 | Wexford | -2.49 | -2
32 | New York | 0.00 | 0
33 | London | 0.21 | 0

laoisman11

I started last year’s league preview wondering if Dublin could make it 6 from 7 and whether Mayo would avoid the drop. Crystal ball my ar$e.

No mad predictions this year, except that I am tipping Galway to win the league......

As in previous years, I have ranked teams in each division based on their rating points. This has been previously shown to give some indication of whether a team will finish in relegation/promotion territory.

2020 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin |115|Roscommon|98|Cork|86|Antrim|72
Kerry |107|Cavan|91|Longford|81|Carlow|70
Mayo|103|Armagh|91|Down|78|Limerick|67
Donegal|101|Kildare|87|Derry|74|Sligo|64
Tyrone|99|Clare|85|Offaly|73|Waterford|63
Galway|93|Fermanagh|82|Leitrim|69|Wicklow|59
Meath|89|Laois|79|Tipperary|67|Wexford|59
Monaghan|85|Westmeath|76|Louth|66|London|52

• Many expect Kerry to continue their push from last year and to go well in this league, and why not? Galway are quite lowly-rated compared to others but a new manager and new playing style might change that. However, it is difficult to gauge the appetite of other teams for this Division 1, except for the desire to stay there. Meath and Monaghan have most to fear
• In Division 2, Roscommon appear to have a clear head-start over the rest of the field, but consistency has never been their strong point. Cavan’s squad has changed a lot recently and they will do well to challenge Armagh and Kildare for a possible 2nd promotion spot. Hard to call between Clare, Fermanagh, Laois and Westmeath for the drop
• Top of Division 3 has higher rating points than bottom of Division 1! Cork appear destined to make their stay in this division a short one – Longford, Down and Derry will also be in the hunt for promotion and a guarantee of Tier 1 status for the championship. Leitrim, Tipperary (although they may be artificially low after a disastrous 2019) and Louth to battle for relegation
• Division 4 appears to be a three-horse race between Antrim, Carlow and Limerick. Sligo and Waterford might create a shock or two along the way

Previous year's finishes: tables are sorted by rating or ranking position prior to start of the league, colour indicate top 2 finish (green) or bottom 2 finish (red)

2019 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin | 114|Donegal|95|Laois|86|Leitrim|70
Tyrone |106|Kildare|90|Carlow|80|Derry|70
Monaghan|104|Armagh|87|Longford|80|Antrim|66
Kerry|100|Cork|86|Down|77|Waterford|63
Galway|100|Clare|84|Sligo|74|Wexford|61
Mayo|91|Fermanagh|84|Westmeath|72|Limerick|61
Roscommon|88|Meath|80|Offaly|72|Wicklow|61
Cavan|85|Tipperary|78|Louth|63|London|52

2018 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin | 111|Roscommon|91|Armagh|91|Carlow|73
Mayo |104|Cork|88|Westmeath|81|Laois|73
Kerry|101|Tipperary|85|Derry|79|Antrim|69
Tyrone|100|Clare|85|Longford|78|Limerick|65
Monaghan|93|Meath|83|Sligo|77|Leitrim|65
Galway|93|Down|82|Fermanagh|75|Waterford|57
Kildare|90|Cavan|82|Offaly|73|Wicklow|56
Donegal|88|Louth|69|Wexford|71|London|54

2017 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin | 111 | Clare | 91| Tipperary | 92| Westmeath | 84
Kerry | 103 | Galway | 89 | Longford | 80| Wexford | 72
Mayo | 103 | Cork | 88| Laois | 78| Limerick | 71
Tyrone | 97 | Derry| 85 | Offaly | 77| Carlow | 64
Donegal | 96| Kildare | 84 | Sligo | 75| Leitrim | 63
Monaghan | 84| Fermanagh| 84| Armagh | 74 | Wicklow | 59
Roscommon | 83 | Meath | 82| Louth | 73 | London | 58
Cavan| 83 | Down | 73|Antrim | 68 | Waterford | 57

2016 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin | 109 | Tyrone | 96 | Kildare | 93 | Wexford | 76
Kerry | 104 | Galway | 90 | Westmeath | 81 | Antrim | 72
Mayo | 100 | Fermanagh| 89 | Sligo | 81 | Louth | 70
Donegal | 96 | Derry| 86 | Tipperary | 79 | Leitrim | 65
Monaghan | 96 | Meath | 83 | Longford | 78 | Wicklow | 61
Cork | 89 | Armagh | 83 | Clare | 73 | London | 61
Roscommon | 84 | Cavan | 75 | Limerick | 72 | Carlow | 61
Down| 77 | Laois | 72 | Offaly | 71 | Waterford | 56

2015 NFL
Div 1| Rank| Div 2| Rank| Div 3| Rank| Div 4| Rank
Kerry | 1 | Kildare | 9 | Armagh | 7 | Longford | 22
Donegal | 2 | Meath | 10 | Tipperary | 15 | Antrim | 26
Dublin | 3 | Galway | 11 | Louth | 18 | Wicklow | 27
Mayo | 4 | Roscommon | 13 | Wexford | 19 | Leitrim | 28
Monaghan | 5 | Laois | 14 | Clare | 20 | Offaly | 29
Cork | 6 | Down | 16 | Fermanagh | 23 | London | 30
Tyrone | 8 | Cavan | 17 | Limerick | 24 | Carlow | 31
Derry | 12 | Westmeath | 21 | Sligo | 25 | Waterford | 32

2014 NFL
Div 1| Rank| Div 2| Rank| Div 3| Rank| Div 4| Rank
Dublin | 1 | Donegal | 6 | Cavan | 12 | Tipperary | 20
Mayo | 2 | Monaghan | 7 | Wexford | 17 | Antrim | 26
Kerry | 3 | Meath | 9 | Roscommon | 19 | Clare | 27
Tyrone | 4 | Down | 10 | Limerick | 21 | Wicklow | 28
Cork | 5 | Laois | 11 | Fermanagh | 22 | London | 29
Kildare | 8 | Galway | 14 | Longford | 23 | Waterford | 30
Derry | 13 | Louth | 15 | Offaly | 24 | Leitrim | 31
Westmeath | 18 | Armagh | 16 | Sligo | 25 | Carlow | 32

2013 NFL
Div 1| Rank| Div 2| Rank| Div 3| Rank| Div 4| Rank
Donegal | 1 | Laois | 9 | Meath | 10 | Limerick | 17
Cork | 2 | Armagh | 11 | Sligo | 15 | Tipperary | 20
Mayo | 3 | Wexford | 12 | Monaghan | 19 | Clare | 25
Kerry | 4 | Derry | 13 | Roscommon | 21 | Offaly | 27
Dublin | 5 | Galway | 14 | Antrim | 22 | Leitrim | 28
Tyrone | 6 | Westmeath | 16 | Cavan | 24 | Carlow | 29
Kildare | 7 | Longford | 18 | Wicklow | 26 | Waterford | 31
Down | 8 | Louth | 23 | Fermanagh | 30 | London | 33

The trend since 2013 is starting to balance out, especially with 3 Munster teams finishing in the bottom 2 of their divisions in 2019.

Finishes per province (2013-2019 combined)

Province| Top 2 | Bottom 2
Leinster | 21 | 24
Ulster | 18 | 16
Connacht | 6 | 9*
Munster | 9 | 5
*Connacht's 9 bottom 2 finishes are not helped by London finishing last in Div 4 during 6 of the last 7 years.[/QUOTE]

seligehgit

Any predictions?

seligehgit

Matchday predictions that is?

laoisman11

seligehgit wrote: »

Matchday predictions that is?

In the pools thread - although I do change some of the predictions when I know that half a team is missing.

If enough people are interested, I can post up the models predictions here.....

Charles Babbage

Cavan on the slide here.

BonnieSituation

laoisman11 wrote: »

In the pools thread - although I do change some of the predictions when I know that half a team is missing.

If enough people are interested, I can post up the models predictions here.....

Always interested of course

CrabRevolution

Hmmm. Looking ominous for Meath that the bottom 2 ranked teams in Div 1. getting relegated seems to be the most consistent annual occurrence.

In the last 5 years only 1 team has been ranked in the bottom 2 and survived Div 1. By contrast, in the other 3 divisions not once have the bottom 2 ranked teams both been relegated!

laoisman11

Here are the predictions for the first round of games:

Game|Prediction
Donegal vs Mayo | Draw game
Dublin vs Kerry | Dublin by 3.7
Armagh vs Cavan | Draw game
Derry vs Leitrim | Derry by 5
Cork vs Offaly | Cork by 6.7
Carlow vs Wicklow | Carlow by 4.4
Waterford vs Limerick | Draw game
Tyrone vs Meath | Tyrone by 4.8
Galway vs Monaghan | Galway by 4.6
Westmeath vs Clare | Clare by 2.2
Roscommon vs Laois | Roscommon by 8.4
Kildare vs Fermanagh | Kildare by 4.2
Longford vs Louth | Longford by 6.1
Tipperary vs Down | Down by 4.2
Antrim vs Wexford | Antrim by 6.9
London vs Sligo | Sligo by 7.3

laoisman11

And the rankings after the first round of the league.....lots of rating points exchanged but little movement overall.

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 113.72 | -1.11
2 | = | Kerry | 107.87 | 1.11
3 | = | Mayo | 102.91 | 0.15
4 | = | Donegal | 101.15 | -0.15
5 | = | Tyrone | 99.63 | 0.17
6 | = | Roscommon | 96.45 | -1.50
7 | = | Galway | 93.20 | 0.45
8 | ▲ | Armagh | 92.62 | 1.91
9 | ▼ | Cavan | 89.54 | -1.91
10 | = | Meath | 88.97 | -0.17
11 | = | Kildare | 87.63 | 0.73
12 | = | Cork | 85.87 | 0.00
13 | ▲ | Monaghan | 84.84 | -0.45
14 | ▼ | Clare | 83.21 | -2.15
15 | = | Fermanagh | 81.45 | -0.73
16 | = | Longford | 81.03 | 0.00
17 | = | Laois | 81.00 | 1.50
18 | ▲ | Westmeath | 78.02 | 2.15
19 | ▼ | Down | 76.79 | -0.79
20 | ▲ | Offaly | 73.31 | 0.00
21 | ▼ | Derry | 73.12 | -0.76
22 | = | Antrim | 71.93 | 0.00
23 | = | Carlow | 70.03 | 0.13
24 | = | Leitrim | 69.99 | 0.76
25 | ▲ | Limerick | 67.98 | 1.48
26 | ▼ | Tipperary | 67.50 | 0.79
27 | = | Louth | 65.97 | 0.00
28 | = | Sligo | 64.86 | 0.92
29 | = | Waterford | 61.78 | -1.48
30 | = | Wicklow | 59.08 | -0.13
31 | = | Wexford | 58.79 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 51.14 | -0.92

Hawkeye9212

Is not unfair to put New York above London? They only play one game a year whereas London play a minimum of 9 games a year. A fair comparison can't be made.

BonnieSituation

Hawkeye9212 wrote: »

Is not unfair to put New York above London? They only play one game a year whereas London play a minimum of 9 games a year. A fair comparison can't be made.

Nah. I like seeing them in there. It's gas watching London and over the years, Waterford languishing below them.

laoisman11

Hawkeye9212 wrote: »

Is not unfair to put New York above London? They only play one game a year whereas London play a minimum of 9 games a year. A fair comparison can't be made.

It's possibly incorrect but unfair is an objective measure.

It's true that New York have many less opportunities to gain/lose points than all other teams and their movement will be more erratic. If they ever do get a win in Connacht, they will get a massive bounce, but only a loss to Leitrim, as the ratings currently stand, will see them lose rating points.

laoisman11

Prediction model output for this weekend:

Game|Prediction
Mayo vs Dublin | Dublin by 3.2
Kerry vs Galway | Kerry by 7.7
Laois vs Armagh | Armagh by 4
Cavan vs Westmeath | Cavan by 7.3
Down vs Derry | Down by 2.2
Wexford vs Carlow | Carlow by 1.7
Monaghan vs Tyrone | Tyrone by 4.7
Meath vs Donegal | Donegal by 2.9
Clare vs Kildare | Kildare by 1.7
Fermanagh vs Roscommon | Roscommon by 5.3
Louth vs Tipperary | Louth by 1.6
Leitrim vs Cork | Cork by 7.3
Offaly vs Longford | Longford by 0.9
Limerick vs London | Limerick by 9.8
Wicklow vs Waterford | Wicklow by 1.1
Sligo vs Antrim | Antrim by 2.3

celt262

Cavan vs Westmeath Cavan by 7.3

I think the model will need a reboot after this weekend in relation to Cavan.

laoisman11

A few shock results the weekend gone by have changed the pecking order for some.........

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 114.80 | 1.08
2 | = | Kerry | 107.87 | 0.00
3 | ▲ | Donegal | 102.02 | 0.87
4 | ▼ | Mayo | 101.83 | -1.08
5 | = | Tyrone | 96.95 | -2.68
6 | = | Roscommon | 93.75 | -2.70
7 | = | Galway | 93.20 | 0.00
8 | ▲ | Cavan | 89.59 | 0.05
9 | ▼ | Armagh | 89.08 | -3.54
10 | = | Meath | 88.10 | -0.87
11 | ▲ 2 | Monaghan | 87.52 | 2.68
12 | = | Cork | 86.19 | 0.32
13 | ▼ 2 | Kildare | 85.99 | -1.64
14 | = | Clare | 84.85 | 1.64
15 | ▲ 2 | Laois | 84.54 | 3.54
16 | ▼ | Fermanagh | 84.15 | 2.70
17 | ▼ | Longford | 80.56 | -0.47
18 | = | Westmeath | 77.97 | -0.05
19 | = | Down | 77.62 | 0.83
20 | = | Offaly | 73.78 | 0.47
21 | = | Derry | 72.29 | -0.83
22 | = | Antrim | 70.02 | -1.91
23 | ▲ | Leitrim | 69.67 | -0.32
24 | ▲ 2 | Tipperary | 69.15 | 1.65
25 | = | Limerick | 67.98 | 0.00
26 | ▲ 2 | Sligo | 66.77 | 1.91
27 | ▼ 4 | Carlow | 66.54 | -3.49
28 | ▼ | Louth | 64.32 | -1.65
29 | ▲ 2 | Wexford | 62.28 | 3.49
30 | = | Wicklow | 61.29 | 2.21
31 | ▼ 2 | Waterford | 59.57 | -2.21
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 51.14 | 0.00

laoisman11

Model output for this weekend's games:
Game|Prediction
Dublin vs Monaghan | Dublin by 12.6
Armagh vs Kildare | Armagh by 2
Waterford vs Wexford | Wexford by 1.2
Meath vs Mayo | Mayo by 4.3
Donegal vs Galway | Donegal by 4
Tyrone vs Kerry | Kerry by 3.9
Westmeath vs Fermanagh | Fermanagh by 1.3
Laois vs Cavan | Cavan by 1.9
Roscommon vs Clare | Roscommon by 6
Derry vs Tipperary | Derry by 4.3
Longford vs Leitrim | Longford by 6
Louth vs Offaly | Offaly by 2.2
Cork vs Down | Cork by 4.9
Carlow vs Limerick | Draw game
Wicklow vs Sligo | Sligo by 1.2
London vs Antrim | Antrim by 10.5

laoisman11

celt262 wrote: »

Cavan vs Westmeath Cavan by 7.3

I think the model will need a reboot after this weekend in relation to Cavan.

Past performance is not an indicator of future success.

laoisman11

Lots of rating points exchanged but little movement overall after Round 3.

What did stand out though was that Limerick are at their highest ranking since September 2015….…..and that Louth had never descended as low as 29th place in the rankings before !

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 113.30 | -1.50
2 | = | Kerry | 105.58 | -2.29
3 | ▲ | Mayo | 102.26 | 0.43
4 | ▼ | Donegal | 99.34 | -2.68
5 | = | Tyrone | 99.24 | 2.29
6 | ▲ | Galway | 95.88 | 2.68
7 | ▼ | Roscommon | 94.21 | 0.46
8 | = | Cavan | 91.53 | 1.94
9 | = | Armagh | 90.42 | 1.34
10 | ▲ | Monaghan | 89.02 | 1.50
11 | ▼ | Meath | 87.67 | -0.43
12 | = | Cork | 86.53 | 0.34
13 | = | Kildare | 84.65 | -1.34
14 | = | Clare | 84.39 | -0.46
15 | = | Laois | 82.60 | -1.94
16 | = | Fermanagh | 82.33 | -1.82
17 | = | Longford | 80.73 | 0.17
18 | = | Westmeath | 79.79 | 1.82
19 | = | Down | 77.28 | -0.34
20 | = | Offaly | 74.63 | 0.85
21 | = | Derry | 73.18 | 0.89
22 | = | Antrim | 70.02 | 0.00
23 | ▲ 2 | Limerick | 69.64 | 1.66
24 | ▼ | Leitrim | 69.50 | -0.17
25 | ▼ | Tipperary | 68.26 | -0.89
26 | = | Sligo | 65.02 | -1.75
27 | = | Carlow | 64.88 | -1.66
28 | ▲ | Wexford | 63.81 | 1.53
29 | ▼ | Louth | 63.47 | -0.85
30 | = | Wicklow | 63.04 | 1.75
31 | = | Waterford | 58.04 | -1.53
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 51.14 | 0.00

laoisman11

Prediction model output for this weekend's games.

Game|Prediction
Dublin vs Donegal | Dublin by 7.3
Fermanagh vs Cavan | Cavan by 3.5
Down vs Longford | Down by 1
Tipperary vs Cork | Cork by 7.5
Sligo vs Waterford | Sligo by 5
Kerry vs Meath | Kerry by 8.6
Galway vs Tyrone | Draw game
Monaghan vs Mayo | Mayo by 5.2
Clare vs Laois | Clare by 1.2
Westmeath vs Armagh | Armagh by 4.3
Kildare vs Roscommon | Roscommon by 2.1
Derry vs Louth | Derry by 5
Leitrim vs Offaly | Offaly by 2.1
Wexford vs London | Wexford by 9.3
Limerick vs Wicklow | Limerick by 2.9
Antrim vs Carlow | Antrim by 5.2

seligehgit

Wow that Mayo Monaghan prediction is a bit of an outlier based on current form.:)

jj72

seligehgit wrote: »

Wow that Mayo Monaghan prediction is a bit of an outlier based on current form.:)

The form that sees both on 3 points?

seligehgit

jj72 wrote: »

The form that sees both on 3 points?

Mayo were blessed to get anything in Ballybofey and got out of jail in Navan.

Monaghan lost by the minimum to Galway.Put Tyrone to the sword and were unlucky to not get the win in Croker.

Big difference in the form line IMO.

seligehgit

seligehgit wrote: »

Mayo were blessed to get anything in Ballybofey and got out of jail in Navan.

Monaghan lost by the minimum to Galway.Put Tyrone to the sword and were unlucky to not get the win in Croker.

Big difference in the form line IMO.

This is just going on results though isn’t it?

tayto lover

Meath are due to take a big scalp, they usually do.

White lighting

tayto lover wrote: »

Meath are due to take a big scalp, they usually do.

I would be very surprised if Meath won any game in the League. Poor side made poorer by loads of injuries and a poor manager who is not up to it.