Football ranking table

laoisman11

Prediction model output for this weekend's games.............will Dublin's losing streak continue, can Armagh and Limerick continue to climb the table???

Breifne Blue

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118637703#Comment_118637703

You put in Antrim twice and left out Cavan.

laoisman11

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118640167#Comment_118640167

That's a major faux pas! Thanks for pointing this out, I had copied the fixtures from the Hoganstand website :-(

I will re-run it again this evening.

laoisman11

Updated predictions (with Cavan included this time!)

Breifne Blue

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118641856#Comment_118641856

No bother Laoisman! I'm a big fan of your rankings system I must say. The match predictions can be tough as so many variables but it's certainly a good guide and it's hard to argue against the rankings table for any teams!

laoisman11

The weather caused serious carnage to this weekend's schedule but there was some significant movement in the table nonetheless:

• Mayo solidify their place at number 1 after a solid win over the Dubs
• Derry are at their highest since 2016 following a bonus-point win over Cork
• Antrim climb to 20th, their best ranking since March 2013

CrabRevolution

Is it even possible for Cavan to gain any points? They're so far ahead of everyone in the division in terms of points.

laoisman11

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118672739#Comment_118672739

At a quick glance, your assumption is correct - if they win all their games, they will not gain any points as they are way ahead of all other teams. But if they lose or draw a game, they will suffer! And their 2 wins to date have not been as comfortable as the prediction model suggested.......

laoisman11

Prediction model output for this weekend's games - apparently, if your team is playing at home, it's not a good omen!

Treble double

Wouldn't like to have been using that predictor for a few cheeky bets

laoisman11

• Kildare, Louth and Donegal went against the prediction model's home team's losing trend, and these surprise wins gained them all more than 2.4 rating points
• We have to go back to June 2017 to see Louth so high and Longford so low in the ranking table

laoisman11

Prediction model output for this weekend's 5 postponed games:

laoisman11

Minor movements at the bottom of the ranking table after this weekend's 5 postponed games, with Laois now at their lowest ranking since June 2015.

laoisman11

Prediction model output for this weekend's games:

laoisman11

I was going to start this post by saying that prediction model did quite well for round 5 of the league, based on the Kerry-Mayo and Roscommon-Derry games. But then I had a closer look: only those 2 games had the correct score and 1 other game was correct within plus or minus 2 points. Improvements to be made I reckon.

Ranking table updated below, the big news is that following their win over Mayo, Kerry have now taken the number 1 spot for the first time since August 2015! Tipp were the big winners of the weekend, with a solid win over a Cavan team that are consistently not performing according to their relatively-high ranking place.

theoneeyedman

@laoisman11 a query....

How did Derry make a small gain and Roscommon a slight loss after their draw, is it due to the venue?

laoisman11

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118791309#Comment_118791309

Correct; home advantage adds 3 rating points to your rating score in the calculation of the rating exchange, so it would have been Roscommon (93.1) vs Derry (91.4). Because Roscommon didn't win, they made a slight loss.

laoisman11

Prediction model output for this weekend's games:

laoisman11

Much better performance from the prediction model this weekend, with 5 games predicted within 2 points and 11 games predicted within 4 points.

Lots of minor movement after Round 6, with Kildare, Wicklow and Tyrone recording excellent wins. Kildare are now at their highest since August 2018, while Louth, who have climbed 6 places in the rankings since the start of the year, are now at their highest since April 2017.

laoisman11

Prediction model output for this weekend - where 1 (or both) teams have little to play for, the predictions come with a health warning 😉

laoisman11

Only 2 of the 16 games played this weekend did not result in rating points being exchanged.......

Longford, Monaghan and Roscommon all picked up more than 2 rating points with relegation-saving and promotion-earning wins

Four games were correctly predicted within 2 points, and 7 within 4 points.

Lemlin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118853829#Comment_118853829

Thanks for the stats. When was the last time Cavan were as low as 15th?

laoisman11

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118860565#Comment_118860565

Back in 2018 on a few occasions they were at 15th, even touched 16th momentarily.......

laoisman11

Prediction model output for this weekend below. I still think that Cavan's rating is overinflated based on their results during this league - if they do lose on Saturday, this will be (partly?) corrected.............

Charles Babbage

In the overall ranking there is little between the top 3, the Dubs are inbetween, then you have Donegal, Galway, Armagh and Monaghan. The final will certainly involve one of the top three, possibly two. But the top teams could be caught out by someone in the second grouping, even if the latter do not actually win the title they could affect the destination of Sam.

Lemlin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118861774#Comment_118861774

That’s surprising because in 2018 we were promoted to Division 1. We would have beaten Meath and Cork and drew with Roscommon in the League. Roscommon also went up with us.

laoisman11

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/107067684#Comment_107067684

@Lemlin Cavan were 10th after a good league campaign in 2018 but a heavy loss to Donegal, after which they were were leap-frogged by Fermanagh, saw them slip back to 16th. However, it has to be acknowledged that the mid-table was heavily congested in 2018, with less than 5 rating points separating 9th and 19th (80-85 rating points). Only 3 teams sit between 80 and 85 rating points today, with Cavan still being one of them!

laoisman11

Update after the league finals...I will do up an "end-of-league" summary between now and the middle of next week.

laoisman11

End of league review 2022!

The big winners were (drumroll!).......

• An unbeaten run in Division 2, coupled with a league final win over Galway helped Roscommon to gain 9.55 rating points. With a relatively easy run to the Connacht final, they surely aim to go further this year
• Despite losing their first round fixture to Laois, Louth weren't beaten again on their way to a well-merited Div 3 title. An increase of 9.43 rating points - is there more to come in the Leinster SFC?
• Honorable mentions to Derry, Armagh and Kerry who all increased their worth by more than 5 rating points

And the big losers......

• No surprises that 5 losses for a once unbeatable team would see them slip - Dublin dropped 8.97 rating points as they plunge to Div 2. They can, and probably will, bounce back up the table in the championship
• A solitary draw was all Down had to show for an abysmal league campaign; 7.14 rating points lost. A first-round Ulster SFC win over Monaghan would certainly help them..........
• Dishonorable mentions to Tyrone, Longford, Cork and Laois who all gave up more than 5 rating points over their league campaigns

theoneeyedman

Keep up the good work @laoisman11, ratings always interesting and as good a way of rating teams as any I've seen.

And to top it all, you've finally copped on that the Rossies are the bestest foot ball team ever in the whole wide world ever!!