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Football ranking table

1679111229

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,710 ✭✭✭ahlookit


    nice_guy80 wrote: »
    Roscommon won the AI Junior and then WW2 broke out
    That's when Roscommon seem to do well

    Roscommon won minor titles in 39 & 41, then seniors in 43 & 44.

    As for nice_guy80's comments, with Boris Johnsons appointment as UK Foreign Secretary, hopes are rising throughout the county....


  • Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    • A bonus point win over Longford resulta in Cork moving back up to where they were before the Tipp defeat and gained them 5.13 rating points
    • Galway jump up 3 places to 4th, their highest rank since June 2009
    • Derry gain 4 places and narrowly rejoin the top 8
    • A remarkable run for Clare sees them continue to amass rating points; they now stand in 9th, their highest position since June 1997
    • Tyrone sneak nearer to Kerry after a hard-fought win over Donegal
    • Mayo continue their voyage in the qualifiers, picking up 1.49 rating points from Kildare
    • In terms of downwards movers, Cavan (-7), Longford (-5) and Roscommon (-4) were the big losers
    • No rating points were exchanged as a result of the Leinster final

    Teams in bold still involved in the SFC
    #|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
    1 | = | Dublin | 111.55 | 0.00
    2 | = | Kerry | 102.98 | 0.00
    3 | = | Tyrone | 101.03 | 2.60
    4 | ▲ 3 | Galway | 95.59 | 4.66
    5 | = | Mayo | 94.01 | 1.49
    6 | ▼ 2 | Donegal | 93.83 | -2.60
    7 | ▲ 2 | Cork | 90.91 | 5.13
    8 | ▲ 4 | Derry | 89.01 | 4.08
    9 | ▲ 5 | Clare | 88.12 | 3.47
    10 | ▼ 4 | Roscommon | 86.80 | -4.66
    11 | ▼ | Westmeath | 85.50 | 0.00
    12 | ▲ 2 | Monaghan | 84.02 | 0.00
    13 | ▼ 2 | Kildare | 83.99 | -1.49
    14 | ▲ 2 | Fermanagh | 83.85 | 0.00
    15 | ▼ 7 | Cavan | 83.23 | -4.08
    16 | ▲ | Tipperary | 82.92 | 0.00
    17 | ▲ | Meath | 81.64 | 0.00
    18 | ▼ 5 | Longford | 79.75 | -5.13
    19 | ▲ | Laois | 77.86 | 0.00
    20 | ▲ | Offaly | 76.94 | 0.00
    21 | ▼ 2 | Sligo | 74.74 | -3.47
    22 | = | Armagh | 74.35 | 0.00
    23 | = | Down | 72.94 | 0.00
    24 | = | Louth | 72.90 | 0.00
    25 | = | Wexford | 71.59 | 0.00
    26 | = | Limerick | 70.80 | 0.00
    27 | = | Antrim | 67.62 | 0.00
    28 | = | Carlow | 63.64 | 0.00
    29 | = | Leitrim | 63.28 | 0.00
    30 | = | Wicklow | 59.36 | 0.00
    31 | = | London | 57.61 | 0.00
    32 | = | New York | 57.17 | 0.00
    33 | = | Waterford | 56.82 | 0.00


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,045 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    While I do enjoy reading this thread, perhaps the jumps after results can be too severe? Longford rising 6 places by beating Monaghon and then dropping 5 by losing to Cork being a prime example.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,388 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    Even if Tyrone win the all Ireland we can't go above Dublin I'd say.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,826 ✭✭✭✭padd b1975


    Jayop wrote: »
    Even if Tyrone win the all Ireland we can't go above Dublin I'd say.

    If Dublin lose their quarter final, you should go close with some big wins.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,549 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    L'prof wrote: »
    While I do enjoy reading this thread, perhaps the jumps after results can be too severe? Longford rising 6 places by beating Monaghon and then dropping 5 by losing to Cork being a prime example.

    The table is good as an end of year ranking of teams.

    Using it as a indication of status or ranking of teams on any given week is futile as the championship structure does not lend itself to making such rankings easy to calibrate.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,388 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    padd b1975 wrote: »
    If Dublin lose their quarter final, you should go close with some big wins.

    Not going to happen but even thinking it'd be possible warms my cockles.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,826 ✭✭✭✭padd b1975


    Jayop wrote: »
    Not going to happen but even thinking it'd be possible warms my cockles.

    It's all about the silverware!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 335 ✭✭HanaleiJ5N


    An other way of looking at Longford is that their last two games resulted in a net gain of one position. Started the year in 18th and are now.... 18th. In terms of league they're a D4 side so that ranking may appear high but they did knock two D1 sides (albeit one relegated) out of the championships, and both times away from home.

    Best not to take this on a game by game basis!

    The championship structure poses a problem. A bad league season can result in Played 7, lost 7, and 7 opportunities to lose points. A bad championship can mean played 2, lost 2. Most teams will only take a hit twice. So it has to be weighted accordingly, there will be some interesting moves throughout the championship but by and large things even themselves out as the season runs it's course.


  • Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Just realised that I hadn't posted up this week's games.........

    Clare (88.12) vs Roscommon (86.80)
    A first ever championship meeting for these sides who have been in action the 2 previous weekends. Clare have been making their way steadily through the qualifiers, accounting for Laois and Sligo while Roscommon stuttered their way through the Connacht championship before imploding in the replayed final. Roscommon have had a short turn-around from last Sunday and with the records of short-turn-around-losing-provincial-finalists not being the best, they will be under severe pressure to keep their dreams alive. Nevertheless, they had been playing at a much higher level than Clare during the league, and this could stand to them. Prediction: Roscommon by 2

    Derry (89.01) vs Tipperary (82.92)
    Another first-time championship meeting! Derry have turned their season around with good wins over Louth, Meath and Cavan but it is still difficult to rate the quality of the opposition they faced on this journey. Tipp will have been disappointed with their showing against Kerry and this, along with an extended break, will surely help their cause here. I'm finding it difficult to call, but the prediction model has no such problem. Derry by 4

    Cork (90.91) vs Donegal (93.83)
    The toughest possible draw for Cork? Possibly, but they will surely savour a crack off of Donegal suffering a hangover from a sapping Ulster final defeat. Both teams appear to have full selections to pick from. I have a sneaking suspicion for Donegal here, but it is going to be tight. Too tight to call for the prediction model. Draw

    Mayo (94.01) vs Westmeath (85.50)
    Fifteen years since the one and only championship meeting of these teams (which I remember well, I'm still shaking the cold out of my bones from the fridge that is Dr. Hyde Park), and Mayo have a chance to avenge that defeat. Kildare is the common denominator here, Westmeath snuck by them by 1 point while Mayo had 9 to spare over them in their most recent win. It could be a good indication of what might happen on Sunday. Prediction: Mayo by 6


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,455 ✭✭✭✭PARlance


    Cork vs Donegal and Mayo vs Westmeath are on this day week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    PARlance wrote: »
    Cork vs Donegal and Mayo vs Westmeath are on this day week.

    I'm getting ahead of myself........


  • Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Two huge results today, which see 4 Munster teams sitting (albeit temporarily) in the top 10.
    • Clare hit their highest ever position in the rankings (dating from 1930!) after their impressive bonus point win over Roscommon
    • Tipperary jump 7 places to 9th, their highest placement since August 1944


    Teams in bold still involved in the SFC
    #|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
    1 | = | Dublin | 111.55 | 0.00
    2 | = | Kerry | 102.98 | 0.00
    3 | = | Tyrone | 101.03 | 0.00
    4 | = | Galway | 95.59 | 0.00
    5 | = | Mayo | 94.01 | 0.00
    6 | = | Donegal | 93.83 | 0.00
    7 | ▲ 2 | Clare | 92.22 | 4.10
    8 | ▼ | Cork | 90.91 | 0.00
    9 | ▲ 7 | Tipperary | 87.14 | 4.22
    10 | ▲ | Westmeath | 85.50 | 0.00
    11 | ▼ 3 | Derry | 84.79 | -4.22
    12 | = | Monaghan | 84.02 | 0.00
    13 | = | Kildare | 83.99 | 0.00
    14 | = | Fermanagh | 83.85 | 0.00
    15 | = | Cavan | 83.23 | 0.00
    16 | ▼ 6 | Roscommon | 82.70 | -4.10


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,388 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    Only two Ulster teams in the top ten reflects a bad season for Ulster.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,286 ✭✭✭seligehgit


    Jayop wrote: »
    Only two Ulster teams in the top ten reflects a bad season for Ulster.

    Not a bad spread amongst the provinces,who would have expected there to be 4 counties from Munster in the top 10?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 975 ✭✭✭J Cheever Loophole


    Jayop wrote: »
    Only two Ulster teams in the top ten reflects a bad season for Ulster.

    Monaghan are undoubtedly a top ten team. The fact that they're not currently listed there is a reflection of the inadequacies of our football championship, rather than the excellence of Laoisman's work.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,826 ✭✭✭✭padd b1975


    A rough couple of weeks for the Rossies.
    Two defeats have cost them the thick end of nine points.

    Surely there's an anomaly there that needs looking at?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,388 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    padd b1975 wrote: »
    A rough couple of weeks for the Rossies.
    Two defeats have cost them the thick end of nine points.

    Surely there's an anomaly there that needs looking at?

    If they are being beat by teams way lower then they deserve to lose those points.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,781 ✭✭✭✭keane2097


    Roscommon gained a load of points for being at full tilt when the rest of Division 1 was still in hibernation, getting tanked by Galway and Clare should 100% be costing them a ton of points.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,826 ✭✭✭✭padd b1975


    There wasn't a whole lot between themselves and Galway, seems a little punitive.....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,781 ✭✭✭✭keane2097


    padd b1975 wrote: »
    There wasn't a whole lot between themselves and Galway, seems a little punitive.....

    There was 17 points between them at one stage.


  • Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    (first 2 games copied from what i had posted last week)

    Cork (90.91) vs Donegal (93.83)
    The toughest possible draw for Cork? Possibly, but they will surely savour a crack off of Donegal suffering a hangover from a sapping Ulster final defeat. Both teams appear to have full selections to pick from. I have a sneaking suspicion for Donegal here, but it is going to be tight. Too tight to call for the prediction model. Draw

    Mayo (94.01) vs Westmeath (85.50)
    Fifteen years since the one and only championship meeting of these teams (which I remember well, I'm still shaking the cold out of my bones from the fridge that is Dr. Hyde Park), and Mayo have a chance to avenge that defeat. Kildare is the common denominator here, Westmeath snuck by them by 1 point while Mayo had 9 to spare over them in their most recent win. It could be a good indication of what might happen on Saturday evening. Prediction: Mayo by 6

    Kerry (102.98) vs Clare (92.22)
    Kerry had 12 points to spare over Clare 7 weekends ago and 10 to spare over Tipp 3 weeks later. They should be well rested here and looking forward to a semi-final spot. Clare's run through the qualifiers to come to an end, although not by as much as the bookies are predicting. Prediction: Kerry by 7

    Galway (95.59) vs Tipperary (87.14)
    Few would have predicted these 2 playing off for a semi-final spot. Both teams could consider themselves to have had a successful year so far: Tipperary beating Cork and Derry, with Galway taking the scalps of Mayo and Roscommon to win the Nestor Cup for the first time since 2008. It is fair to say that Galway have taken the bigger scalps, and for this reason their stock is higher. The prediction model sees it that way too: Galway by 5


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Looking forward to seeing this now after today's games.


  • Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    This weekend we had the greatest shock in this year's championship in terms of rating points gained in a match……..
    • Tipperary gained 7.04 rating points and move up 3 places to 6th, their highest position since 1932
    • Galway drop 4 places and will finish the year just ahead of Cork
    • Donegal close in on Tyrone but a huge gap exists between themselves and Dublin
    • Mayo solidify their 5th place after having seen off Westmeath who drop 4 places to 14th (the large drop is due to a large group of teams around the 83-84 rating point range)
    • Kerry gained 1.27 rating points after a solid if unspectacular bonus point win over Clare
    • Munster will finish the year with 4 teams in the top 8, an impressive achievement

    #|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
    1 | = | Dublin | 111.55 | 0.00
    2 | = | Kerry | 104.25 | 1.27
    3 | = | Tyrone | 101.03 | 0.00
    4 | ▲ 2 | Donegal | 96.25 | 2.42
    5 | = | Mayo | 95.96 | 1.95
    6 | ▲ 3 | Tipperary | 94.18 | 7.04
    7 | = | Clare | 90.95 | -1.27
    8 | ▼ 4 | Galway | 88.55 | -7.04
    9 | ▼ | Cork | 88.49 | -2.42
    10 | ▲ | Derry | 84.79 | 0.00
    11 | ▲ | Monaghan | 84.02 | 0.00
    12 | ▲ | Kildare | 83.99 | 0.00
    13 | ▲ | Fermanagh | 83.85 | 0.00
    14 | ▼ 4 | Westmeath | 83.55 | -1.95
    15 | = | Cavan | 83.23 | 0.00
    16 | = | Roscommon | 82.70 | 0.00


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 255 ✭✭mooonpie


    Thanks for the continued effort laoisman ... only came across this thread a couple of weeks ago and find it very interesting.

    It's quite amazing to see how rankings can change drastically from game to game, but even out a bit over the course of a season.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,388 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    The top 6 are all in it. 2 of them have to get pushed this weekend. Love this time of the year, sh1t gets real!


  • Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Have to say that I'm really looking forward to these 2 games tomorrow......

    Tyrone (101.03) vs Mayo (95.96)
    Apart from the Galway loss, Mayo have been consistently hitting 20-24 points per game, without ever looking very fluid in their attacking moments. The quality of the defense faced up till now however will pale into comparison when Tyrone take to the field. Tyrone appear to be able to adapt to varying situations (sneaking wins in low scoring encounters or out-gunning others and racking up huge totals). Which system they opt for will likely define whether we have a free-flowing or tightly-marshalled game. Mayo's tenacity in the tackle and ability to turn over ball could swing the contest towards the latter. I have a slight leaning towards Tyrone here, but even given their superior rating point difference (+5.07) the prediction model says Mayo will prevail. Mayo by 2

    Dublin (111.55, at home) vs Donegal (96.25)
    Dublin are so far ahead of Donegal in the ratings that not even a bonus-point win for Dublin will increase their total rating points. Donegal bounced back well against Cork last weekend but I have a feeling they have not fully shown their hand. McBrearty was unmarkable and a continuation of that form along with an improvement from those around him surely has to provide Dublin with some serious questions, questions which do not seem to have been posed in quite some time. Do Dublin know where they are in terms of their performance? Do they have enough fight to retain their title? Tomorrow will tell. The prediction model (unsurprisingly) sees it only one way. Dublin by 6


  • Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    • Mayo jump 2 places and knock Tyrone from 3rd place, gaining 4.01 rating points
    • No rating points were exchanged in the Dublin-Donegal game

    #|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
    1 | = | Dublin | 111.55 | 0.00
    2 | = | Kerry | 104.25 | 0.00
    3 | ▲2 | Mayo | 99.97 | 4.01
    4 | ▼ | Tyrone | 97.02 | -4.01
    5 | ▼ | Donegal | 96.25 | 0.00
    6 | = | Tipperary | 94.18 | 0.00
    7 | = | Clare | 90.95 | 0.00
    8 | = | Galway | 88.55 | 0.00


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,977 ✭✭✭TheDoctor


    laoisman11 wrote: »
    • Tipperary gained 7.04 rating points and move up 3 places to 6th, their highest position since 1932

    God, I remember it well....


  • Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    TheDoctor wrote: »
    God, I remember it well....

    Ye doctors are well known for yere longevity, fair play to ya.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,388 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    I've been saying for ages that this table is a load of rubbish and completely meaningless /bitter rant



    (joking obvs)


  • Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Mayo (99.97) vs Tipperary (94.18)
    An unlikely semi-final, as Matt Cooper is just after saying as I started typing this. And that it is. Taking into consideration that they couldn't manage promotion from Division 3 (and that it wasn't considered a major shock), Tipp now find themselves one step away from an All-Ireland final appearance. They have played an attractive open brand of football which results in them being the only team to have 3 players in the top 30 scorers in this year's championship (Michael Quinlivan 2-20; Kevin O'Halloran 1-22; Conor Sweeney 3-07). They had an excellent win over Galway and showed great resolve earlier on, in taking out Derry and Cork. The Kerry game was not so pretty however.

    Mayo find themselves in a great position. Of the 3 possible opponents in an All-Ireland semi-final, they have drawn the easiest of them. They have slowly been gathering pace this season, and their quarter-final win over Tyrone is, in my opinion, their season defining moment. Their intensity, work-rate and turn-over capacity are first class, and I don't see Tipperary getting the same space and latitude as they received against some of the more generous teams in this year's championship. It might be tight for long stretches as Mayo think of All-Ireland final day, but I feel that Tipperary will squander too many chances in front of the posts to truly trouble Mayo. Prediction: Mayo by 6


  • Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Mayo will be happy to have that game done and dusted and can now prepare for the big day. They have plenty of work to do, but a victory like yesterday's is in my opinion better preparation than if they had won by 15+.

    #|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
    1 | = | Dublin | 111.55 | 0.00
    2 | = | Kerry | 104.25 | 0.00
    3 | = | Mayo | 101.81 | 1.84
    4 | = | Tyrone | 97.02 | 0.00
    5 | = | Donegal | 96.25 | 0.00
    6 | = | Tipperary | 92.34 | -1.84
    7 | = | Clare | 90.95 | 0.00
    8 | = | Galway | 88.55 | 0.00


  • Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Dublin (111.55, at home) vs Kerry (104.25)

    Work is getting in the way, I'm going to have to keep it short this week but I'll do up a decent preview for the final.

    The model's output is in points, but personally I think that for this prediction, it should be in goals. Prediction: Dublin by 3


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,386 ✭✭✭✭DDC1990


    laoisman11 wrote:
    The model's output is in points, but personally I think that for this prediction, it should be in goals. Prediction: Dublin by 3


    ****! That confident about a Dublin win? By "in goals" do you mean by 9 points?

    I put a lot of stock in your prediction model and it's proven itself to be very accurate in the main part.

    Not the news I wanted to hear!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 255 ✭✭mooonpie


    I read it as the model says Dublin by 3 points, but laoisman's personal opinion is it should be 3 goals


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,286 ✭✭✭seligehgit


    DDC1990 wrote: »
    ****! That confident about a Dublin win? By "in goals" do you mean by 9 points?

    I put a lot of stock in your prediction model and it's proven itself to be very accurate in the main part.

    Not the news I wanted to hear!

    Must say I misread that!3 goals!!:eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    seligehgit wrote: »
    Must say I misread that!3 goals!!:eek:

    mooonpie has it right, model says 3, I say 9. Points!


  • Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    laoisman11 wrote: »
    mooonpie has it right, model says 3, I say 9. Points!

    And that's why I can't get rich.......great effort by Kerry, they asked some serious questions there and were not that far off a serious result.
    • Dublin have now amassed the highest rating points total (previously set by Kerry in 1978).
    • Kerry will finish the year in 2nd or 3rd, depending on the result of the final


    #|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
    1 | = | Dublin | 112.49 | 0.94
    2 | = | Kerry | 103.31 | -0.94
    3 | = | Mayo | 101.81 | 0.00
    4 | = | Tyrone | 97.02 | 0.00
    5 | = | Donegal | 96.25 | 0.00
    6 | = | Tipperary | 92.34 | 0.00
    7 | = | Clare | 90.95 | 0.00
    8 | = | Galway | 88.55 | 0.00


  • Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Dublin (112.49, at home) vs Mayo (101.81)

    Dublin are so far ahead of Mayo in the ratings that Mayo might as well not show up. A huge 13.68 points separate the sides (including Dublin's home advantage). We have to go all the way back to the 1958 final where Dublin held a 16.33 point lead over Derry and subsequently dispatched them by 6 points (there was a difference of 13.43 between Dublin and Armagh in the 8 goal final of 1977, which didn't turn out too well for the Orchardmen either).

    Some might say that Mayo have not shown their hand to this point in the championship. After an early slip up against Galway, they did what they had to to get through the qualifiers. They made their statement in the Tyrone game (but how good were Tyrone?) and easily overcame Tipp. They are hitting an average of 19 points per game, including just over 1.5 goals per game. Nineteen points will hardly be enough to topple the Dubs.

    Mayo's path to the final| |||
    Mayo | 0-12 | Galway | 1-12 | Castlebar
    Mayo | 2-14 |Fermanagh |1-12 | Castlebar
    Mayo |2-17 | Kildare | 0-14 | Castlebar
    Mayo |3-15 |Westmeath |1-15 |Croke Park
    Mayo | 2-16 | London | 0-09 | Ruislip
    Mayo | 0-13 | Tyrone | 0-12| Croke Park
    Mayo | 2-13 |Tipperary | 0-14| Croke Park

    Others might say that Mayo don't have a hand to show. Their build-up play in attack has appeared ponderous and laboured. Diarmuid O'Connor was on fire early on in the year, but he looked very rusty against Tipperary where Cillian stepped into the breach somewhat. Cilian is the top scorer for Mayo on 2-28 (26% of Mayo's team score) followed by Evan O'Regan on 1-16. They are relatively tight at the back though, with an average of 0.4 goals conceded per game.

    Per game||||||
    Team|Goals sc.|Points sc.|Total sc.|Goals conc.|Points conc.|Total conc.
    Dublin | 1.0 | 19.6| 22.6|1.0|11.0|14.0
    Mayo | 1.6 | 14.3 | 19.0 | 0.4| 12.6|13.9

    Dublin have to be fairly sure of where they are after the semi-final. To come back from 5 points down at half-time, draw level, fall 3 behind with 10 to go and still win by 2 shows tremendous character and ability. They have been winning games by an average of 8.6 points this year and apart from Kerry and perhaps 20 minutes near the end of the Donegal game, they have never looked troubled.

    Dublin's path |to |the final| |
    Dublin |2-21 | Laois | 2-10 |Nowlan Park
    Dublin | 0-21 | Meath | 0-11 | Croke Park
    Dublin | 2-19| Westmeath | 0-10 | Croke Park
    Dublin | 1-15 | Donegal | 1-10 | Croke Park
    Dublin | 0-22 | Kerry | 2-14 | Croke Park

    Dean Rock has hit an amazing 1-45 for Dublin in the championship this year, accounting for 42% of Dublin's scores. Diarmuid Connolly follows him with 1-14.

    Looking back at previous meetings, Dublin have held the upper hand. The sides have met on 9 occasions, with 3 draws (all replay subsequently won by Dublin); Mayo only have the 2006 and 2012 victories to look back on. That being said, there has been very little between the 2 teams and Mayo will know that they are not far away.

    1955 All-Ireland semi-final | Dublin | 0-07 | Mayo | 1-04 | Croke Park
    1955 All-Ireland semi-final replay |Dublin | 1-08 | Mayo| 1-07 | Croke Park
    1955 All-Ireland semi-final |Dublin | 1-13 | Mayo |1-13 | Croke Park
    1985 All-Ireland semi-final replay |Dublin | 2-12 | Mayo | 1-07 | Croke Park
    2006 All-Ireland semi-final | Dublin | 2-12 | Mayo | 1-16 | Croke Park
    2012 All-Ireland semi-final | Dublin | 0-16 | Mayo | 0-19 | Croke Park
    2013 All-Ireland final | Dublin | 2-12 | Mayo | 1-14 | Croke Park
    2015 All-Ireland semi-final | Dublin| 2-12 | Mayo | 1-15 |Croke Park
    2015 All-Ireland semi-final replay |Dublin | 3-15 | Mayo | 1-14 |Croke Park

    When we look at the previous meetings and take into account the rating points difference at the time, we see the following:

    281ztol.png

    Little evidence of a trend there (compared to last year's final), except that when Dublin have had a superior rating point score to Mayo, they have never lost. Personally, my heart is for Mayo but they are going to have to put in one hell of an effort to get close to Dublin. And then hope Dublin have an off day.

    Based on current standings and previous results, the prediction model falls heavily in favour of the Dubs. Prediction: Dublin by 5


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 926 ✭✭✭homewardbound11


    Fairly Daming evidence there . Looking forward to the underdog title we firmly have . It served us well in 06 and to a lesser extent 12 .


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,286 ✭✭✭seligehgit


    Oh dear laoisman11 for once I hope your excellent predictive model is proven wrong.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 926 ✭✭✭homewardbound11


    Well I guess Laoisman does do draws


  • Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    After a thrilling game, Mayo make up some ground on Dublin in the ratings. The result on Saturday (unless it's a draw) will determine who finishes no. 1 for 2016.

    #|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
    1 | = | Dublin | 109.75 | -2.74
    2 | ▲ | Mayo | 104.55 | 2.74
    3 | ▼ | Kerry | 103.31 | 0.00
    4 | = | Tyrone | 97.02 | 0.00
    5 | = | Donegal | 96.25 | 0.00
    6 | = | Tipperary | 92.34 | 0.00
    7 | = | Clare | 90.95 | 0.00
    8 | = | Galway | 88.55 | 0.00


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,388 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    Some jump from 4th with a massive gap to potentially 1st.


  • Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Dublin (109.75, at home) vs Mayo (104.55)

    I don't have much to add since the report of 2 weeks ago, except the following: each teams "form" in this year's championship. Effectively I wanted to show how the result of the game compared to what the prediction model predicted. This can be useful to show inconsistencies, shock results but also could indicate that a team was over- or under-valued by the rating system.

    x4oejb.png

    mj1t9l.png

    Given the difference in rating points, and recent results, the prediction model is sticking by its guns. Dublin by 4


  • Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    And so it finishes for another year..........Mayo fans could probably feel aggrieved that they are below Kerry, but I'm sure that will be down the list of their concerns for a while......

    I will post up the winners/losers from this year's championship later, but one observation already stands out - the top 5 is identical to that after last year's championship!

    #|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
    1 | = | Dublin | 111.11 | 1.36
    2 | ▲ | Kerry | 103.31 | 0.00
    3 | ▼ | Mayo | 103.19 | -1.36
    4 | = | Tyrone | 97.02 | 0.00
    5 | = | Donegal | 96.25 | 0.00
    6 | = | Tipperary | 92.34 | 0.00
    7 | = | Clare | 90.95 | 0.00
    8 | = | Galway | 88.55 | 0.00
    9 | = | Cork | 88.49 | 0.00
    10 | = | Derry | 84.79 | 0.00
    11 | = | Monaghan | 84.02 | 0.00
    12 | = | Kildare | 83.99 | 0.00
    13 | = | Fermanagh | 83.85 | 0.00
    14 | = | Westmeath | 83.55 | 0.00
    15 | = | Cavan | 83.23 | 0.00
    16 | = | Roscommon | 82.70 | 0.00
    17 | = | Meath | 81.64 | 0.00
    18 | = | Longford | 79.75 | 0.00
    19 | = | Laois | 77.86 | 0.00
    20 | = | Offaly | 76.94 | 0.00
    21 | = | Sligo | 74.74 | 0.00
    22 | = | Armagh | 74.35 | 0.00
    23 | = | Down | 72.94 | 0.00
    24 | = | Louth | 72.90 | 0.00
    25 | = | Wexford | 71.59 | 0.00
    26 | = | Limerick | 70.80 | 0.00
    27 | = | Antrim | 67.62 | 0.00
    28 | = | Carlow | 63.64 | 0.00
    29 | = | Leitrim | 63.28 | 0.00
    30 | = | Wicklow | 59.36 | 0.00
    31 | = | London | 57.61 | 0.00
    32 | = | New York | 57.17 | 0.00
    33 | = | Waterford | 56.82 | 0.00


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,597 ✭✭✭patmac


    laoisman11 wrote: »
    And so it finishes for another year..........Mayo fans could probably feel aggrieved that they are below Kerry, but I'm sure that will be down the list of their concerns for a while......

    I will post up the winners/losers from this year's championship later, but one observation already stands out - the top 5 is identical to that after last year's championship!

    #|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
    1 | = | Dublin | 111.11 | 1.36
    2 | ▲ | Kerry | 103.31 | 0.00
    3 | ▼ | Mayo | 103.19 | -1.36
    4 | = | Tyrone | 97.02 | 0.00
    5 | = | Donegal | 96.25 | 0.00
    6 | = | Tipperary | 92.34 | 0.00
    7 | = | Clare | 90.95 | 0.00
    8 | = | Galway | 88.55 | 0.00
    9 | = | Cork | 88.49 | 0.00
    10 | = | Derry | 84.79 | 0.00
    11 | = | Monaghan | 84.02 | 0.00
    12 | = | Kildare | 83.99 | 0.00
    13 | = | Fermanagh | 83.85 | 0.00
    14 | = | Westmeath | 83.55 | 0.00
    15 | = | Cavan | 83.23 | 0.00
    16 | = | Roscommon | 82.70 | 0.00
    17 | = | Meath | 81.64 | 0.00
    18 | = | Longford | 79.75 | 0.00
    19 | = | Laois | 77.86 | 0.00
    20 | = | Offaly | 76.94 | 0.00
    21 | = | Sligo | 74.74 | 0.00
    22 | = | Armagh | 74.35 | 0.00
    23 | = | Down | 72.94 | 0.00
    24 | = | Louth | 72.90 | 0.00
    25 | = | Wexford | 71.59 | 0.00
    26 | = | Limerick | 70.80 | 0.00
    27 | = | Antrim | 67.62 | 0.00
    28 | = | Carlow | 63.64 | 0.00
    29 | = | Leitrim | 63.28 | 0.00
    30 | = | Wicklow | 59.36 | 0.00
    31 | = | London | 57.61 | 0.00
    32 | = | New York | 57.17 | 0.00
    33 | = | Waterford | 56.82 | 0.00

    Up:
    Clare by 15!
    Tipperary by 11!
    Cavan, Offaly by 6,
    Laois by 5.
    Down:
    Armagh by 8
    Monaghan, Kildare, Sligo by 5.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,388 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    2015
    laoisman11 wrote: »

    Rank|Team|Δ Rating points|Δ Rank
    1 | Dublin | 10.50 | 2
    2 | Kerry | -4.97 | -1
    3 | Mayo | 1.86 | 1
    4 | Tyrone | 7.32 | 4
    5 | Donegal | -8.85 | -3
    6 | Monaghan | 1.19 | 0
    7 | Kildare | 4.10 | 3
    8 | Galway | 2.32 | 3
    9 | Fermanagh | 18.56 | 16
    10 | Cork | -1.66 | -3
    11 | Derry | 1.23 | 2
    12 | Roscommon | -1.94 | 0
    13 | Meath | -5.95 | -4
    14 | Armagh | -12.03 | -9
    15 | Westmeath | 8.35 | 7
    16 | Sligo | 9.37 | 8
    17 | Tipperary | -4.72 | -3
    18 | Longford | 4.79 | 3
    19 | Down | -1.97 | -3
    20 | Wexford | 0.51 | 0
    21 | Cavan | -1.84 | -3
    22 | Clare | -1.88 | -3
    23 | Limerick | 1.12 | 0
    24 | Laois | -10.87 | -9
    25 | Antrim | 3.37 | 2
    26 | Offaly | 4.98 | 3
    27 | Louth | -7.64 | -10
    28 | Leitrim | -4.02 | -2
    29 | Wicklow | -6.28 | -1
    30 | London | -3.23 | 0
    31 | Carlow | 0.49 | 0
    32 | New York | 0.00 | 1
    33 | Waterford | -2.21 | -1

    2016
    laoisman11 wrote: »

    #|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
    1 | = | Dublin | 111.11 | 1.36
    2 | ▲ | Kerry | 103.31 | 0.00
    3 | ▼ | Mayo | 103.19 | -1.36
    4 | = | Tyrone | 97.02 | 0.00
    5 | = | Donegal | 96.25 | 0.00
    6 | = | Tipperary | 92.34 | 0.00
    7 | = | Clare | 90.95 | 0.00
    8 | = | Galway | 88.55 | 0.00
    9 | = | Cork | 88.49 | 0.00
    10 | = | Derry | 84.79 | 0.00
    11 | = | Monaghan | 84.02 | 0.00
    12 | = | Kildare | 83.99 | 0.00
    13 | = | Fermanagh | 83.85 | 0.00
    14 | = | Westmeath | 83.55 | 0.00
    15 | = | Cavan | 83.23 | 0.00
    16 | = | Roscommon | 82.70 | 0.00
    17 | = | Meath | 81.64 | 0.00
    18 | = | Longford | 79.75 | 0.00
    19 | = | Laois | 77.86 | 0.00
    20 | = | Offaly | 76.94 | 0.00
    21 | = | Sligo | 74.74 | 0.00
    22 | = | Armagh | 74.35 | 0.00
    23 | = | Down | 72.94 | 0.00
    24 | = | Louth | 72.90 | 0.00
    25 | = | Wexford | 71.59 | 0.00
    26 | = | Limerick | 70.80 | 0.00
    27 | = | Antrim | 67.62 | 0.00
    28 | = | Carlow | 63.64 | 0.00
    29 | = | Leitrim | 63.28 | 0.00
    30 | = | Wicklow | 59.36 | 0.00
    31 | = | London | 57.61 | 0.00
    32 | = | New York | 57.17 | 0.00
    33 | = | Waterford | 56.82 | 0.00


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  • Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    So - who were the winners and losers after this year's league and championship?

    As previously noted, there was no change in the top 5, however there was some serious movement below.

    Big winners:
    1. Clare - Division 3 league winners and a great run to the last 8 resulted in Clare gaining 17.5 rating points and 15 places in the rankings
    2. Tipperary - That All-Ireland semi-final will be long remembered in Tipp, can they keep up the good work? 13.35 rating points and 11 ranking places gained in 2016
    3. Cavan - moved up 6 places largely driven by promotion to Division 1
    4. Offaly - also moved up 6 places following a good run in Division 3

    Big losers:
    1. Armagh - dropped 8 places and 8.29 rating points after dropping to Division 3 and failing to win a game in the SFC
    2. Monaghan, Kildare, Sligo and Wexford all dropped 5 ranking places, although Monaghan did drop 11.6 rating points

    Rank end 2016|Team|Δ Rating points|Δ Rank
    1 | Dublin | 1.68 | 0
    2 | Kerry | -0.31 | 0
    3 | Mayo | 2.73 | 0
    4 | Tyrone | 0.57 | 0
    5 | Donegal | 0.54 | 0
    6 | Tipperary | 13.35 | 11
    7 | Clare | 17.50 | 15
    8 | Galway | -1.15 | 0
    9 | Cork | -0.87 | 1
    10 | Derry | -0.73 | 1
    11 | Monaghan | -11.60 | -5
    12 | Kildare | -8.85 | -5
    13 | Fermanagh | -5.54 | -4
    14 | Westmeath | 2.99 | 1
    15 | Cavan | 7.96 | 6
    16 | Roscommon | -0.99 | -4
    17 | Meath | -1.38 | -4
    18 | Longford | 1.52 | 0
    19 | Laois | 6.06 | 5
    20 | Offaly | 5.70 | 6
    21 | Sligo | -5.80 | -5
    22 | Armagh | -8.29 | -8
    23 | Down | -4.33 | -4
    24 | Louth | 2.45 | 3
    25 | Wexford | -4.19 | -5
    26 | Limerick | -1.50 | -3
    27 | Antrim | -4.08 | -2
    28 | Carlow | 2.73 | 3
    29 | Leitrim | -1.28 | -1
    30 | Wicklow | -1.93 | -1
    31 | London | -3.46 | -1
    32 | New York | 0.00 | 0
    33 | Waterford | 0.50 | 0

    Full description of rating model attached as PDF to post 373


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