Ebola virus outbreak

snubbleste

Senegal has it's first ebola case from a person travelling from Guinea
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/08/29/us-health-ebola-senegal-idUKKBN0GT1CD20140829

ceadaoin.

A statement from MSF today calling for military to be sent to west Africa to help contain the outbreak. The situation described sounds pretty grim tbh.

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/sep/02/ebola-outbreak-call-send-military-curb-epidemic

Military teams should be sent to west Africa immediately if there is to be any hope of controlling the Ebola epidemic, doctors on the frontline told the United Nations on Tuesday, painting a stark picture of health workers dying, patients left without care and infectious bodies lying in the streets.

The international president of Médecins sans Frontières (MSF), Dr Joanne Liu, told member states that although alarm bells had been ringing for six months, the response had been too little, too late and no amount of vaccinations and new drugs would be able to prevent the escalating disaster.


"In west Africa, cases and deaths continue to surge," she said. "Riots are breaking out. Isolation centres are overwhelmed. Health workers on the frontline are becoming infected and are dying in shocking numbers.

"Others have fled in fear, leaving people without care for even the most common illnesses. Entire health systems have crumbled."

She said Ebola treatment centres had been reduced to places where people went to die alone.

"It is impossible to keep up with the sheer number of infected people pouring into facilities. In Sierra Leone, infectious bodies are rotting in the streets," she said. "Rather than building new Ebola care centres in Liberia, we are forced to build crematoria."

Joe Doe

Liberia, already hardest-hit by the Ebola epidemic sweeping West Africa, should be prepared for thousands of new cases in coming weeks, the World Health Organization has warned.

Some sort of vamp-ired recovered donor bold / magic monkey vaccine* seems be on the way though, so another vaccine on the way for the developing world.
*not sure what it is but most trails were successful apparently.

ceadaoin.

Just saw this story. I hope it doesn't turn out to be an attempt to deliberately infect someone with ebola :eek:

The FBI and CDC are investigating a person who allegedly attacked a federal air marshal, injecting him with a syringe of an unknown substance at the airport in Lagos, Nigeria on Sunday.

The air marshal, who was scheduled to board a United Airlines flight to Houston there, was given precautionary medications and flown with the rest of his teams and the syringe used in the attack back to the U.S., ABC News reports.

Upon his return to Houston, the marshal was put in quarantine due to concerns that the syringe may have contained the Ebola virus. Such an infection would not be immediately contagious.

old_aussie

Ebola spreading exponentially in Liberia.

And with the approach of the malaria season people will be afraid to go to hospitals to seek treatment.

More health workers are being infected even with full body protection and health workers are afraid to go to infected regions.

Troops are being sent in to stop people leaving or entering some towns.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/ebola-spreading-exponentially-in-liberia-20140909-10e68d.html

old_aussie

Looks like it will be....Die where you are, in attempt to stop ebola.

This will cause widespread panic in Sierra leone

During Sierra Leone's bloody 11-year civil war from 1991 to 2002 there were no government-imposed lockdowns, even though people would often hide in their homes out of fear of reprisal from the rebels.

But now, thanks to the Ebola outbreak, the government has announced a -day mandatory lockdown. From September 18 to 21, citizens of the country will not be allowed to leave their homes in an attempt to stop the spread of Ebola and isolate new cases.

http://www.vox.com/2014/9/7/6117199/sierra-leone-lockdown-Ebola-virus

ceadaoin.

The death rate for the epidemic is higher than previously thought.

World Health Organization researchers issued a dire new forecast for
the Ebola epidemic Tuesday, one that sees 20,000 cases by November, much sooner than previous estimates. And 70 percent of patients are dying.

That's a big increase over the previous estimates of a 50 percent fatality rate.

“These data indicate that without drastic improvements in control measures, the numbers of cases of and deaths from Ebola virus disease are expected to continue increasing from hundreds to thousands per week in the coming months,” the WHO Ebola Response Team, led by Dr. Christopher Dye, wrote in a report rushed into print by the New England Journal of Medicine.

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/ebola-death-rate-70-percent-who-says-dire-new-forecast-n209226

However, the CDC has issued a forecast predicting a possible 20,000 cases by the end of this month. I guess they just don't know how it will go because an epidemic of this size has never happened.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/health/ebola-cases-could-reach-14-million-in-4-months-cdc-estimates.html?smid=tw-bna&_r=1

WakeUp

ceadaoin. wrote: »

The death rate for the epidemic is higher than previously thought.


http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/ebola-death-rate-70-percent-who-says-dire-new-forecast-n209226

the WHO knew along that the number was wrong or nor entirely accurate I cant see how they couldnt have. so either they have been incompetent with their arithmetic or they misinformed on purpose. they are trained professionals I find it hard to believe that they dont know the difference between cfr and pfc...

______________________________________________________________________

"Case fatality rate" - or CFR - is a term that's been tossed around a lot lately in the context of the 2014 West African Ebola outbreak… But what does it really mean?

The CFR – which is calculated by dividing the number of deaths that have occurred due to a certain condition by the total number of cases – is actually a measure of risk. For infectious disease, CFR is a very important epidemiological measure to estimate because it tells us the probability of dying after infection. If estimated properly in the middle of an outbreak, it can even help us examine the efficacy of interventions as they take place.

Because different outbreaks of the same disease can demonstrate different CFRs, there’s usually a range of possible CFRs for a given disease. In the past, outbreaks caused by Zaire ebolavirus have demonstrated a mean end-of-outbreak CFR of 80% [1]... But based off of the WHO's most recent report, it seems that only about 53% of reported Ebola cases thus far have ended in death since the 2014 outbreak began.

However, if we want to be particular, that 53% isn't really a CFR; it's actually the proportion of fatal cases - or PFC. This is a critical distinction. Because the outbreak in West Africa is still ongoing, we can't calculate end-of-outbreak CFR yet. We don’t know how many people will die from Ebola in the weeks ahead or how many total cases will ultimately accumulate by the end of the outbreak. So, for the time being, we have to make do with the PFC, which is essentially the number of deaths thus far divided by the number of cases to date.

At first glance, it might seem then that only 53% of Ebola cases have been dying during this outbreak - a good deal less than the 80% we've seen prior... But what it really means is that only 53% of Ebola cases have died as of September 8th. We have no way of knowing whether all the people who were still hospitalized as of September 8th will survive the disease. Because of this, mid-outbreak PFC - as we've defined it thus far - doesn't tell us much about the likelihood of dying

Below is a chart that shows both unadjusted and lag-adjusted PFC over time for Ebola in West Africa [5]. The lag-adjusted PFC - about 80-85% - is significantly higher than the unadjusted PFC but is consistent with recent fatality estimates by Médecins Sans Frontières [6]. This finding reiterates the magnitude of this outbreak – not only in terms of scale, but also lethality. In light of this new estimate, a stronger global effort is all the more imperative -
http://healthmap.org/site/diseasedaily/article/estimating-fatality-2014-west-african-ebola-outbreak-91014

ardinn

Great - Ebola Zombies!

I new this would happen!!

/http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/hysteria-among-villagers-nimba-after-two-ebola-victims-rise-dead-1467312

Rucking_Fetard

First confirmed case in the US

Peist2007

Case reported in Dallas now. Seems to have been confirmed in past few minutes. Recently flew in from Liberia and came into hospital exhibiting symptoms. CDC have sent in a team to Dallas already. Who knows how long the man was amongst the general population suffering from the disease. The above details subject to coreection as this is breaking

Edit: beaten to it by a Rucking Fetard :-)

Rucking_Fetard

Peist2007 wrote: »

Edit: beaten to it by a Rucking Fetard :-)

:P

ceadaoin.

Rucking_Fetard wrote: »

First confirmed case in the US

Well it was only a matter of time. He has been back in the US since the 20th so could have infected others. Hopefully they will be able to trace anyone he may have been in contact with and isolate them.

Just saw some more about this on CNN. Apparently he sought medical care on the 24th but it wasn't until the 28th that he was isolated, despite showing ebola symptoms and having recently arrived from Liberia. Isn't the 'superior healthcare' in developed countries supposed to stop these kind of mistakes happening? I'd be surprised if others haven't been infected tbh.

My name is URL

Peist2007 wrote: »

Case reported in Dallas now. Seems to have been confirmed in past few minutes. Recently flew in from Liberia and came into hospital exhibiting symptoms. CDC have sent in a team to Dallas already. Who knows how long the man was amongst the general population suffering from the disease. The above details subject to coreection as this is breaking

Edit: beaten to it by a Rucking Fetard :-)

Unless he was riding them all or spitting in their faces I wouldn't worry too much about it yet.

Peist2007

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Well it was only a matter of time. He has been back in the US since the 20th so could have infected others. Hopefully they will be able to trace anyone he may have been in contact with and isolate them.

Just saw some more about this on CNN. Apparently he sought medical care on the 24th but it wasn't until the 28th that he was isolated, despite showing ebola symptoms and having recently arrived from Liberia. Isn't the 'superior healthcare' in developed countries supposed to stop these kind of mistakes happening? I'd be surprised if others haven't been infected tbh.

If he was 3 or 4 days amongst the population then it is easy to fear the worst

ceadaoin.

My name is URL wrote: »

Unless he was riding them all or spitting in their faces I wouldn't worry too much about it yet.

Or vomiting/having diarrhea in public restrooms, not washing his hands, using public transport, sneezing or coughing near people etc. all these things could lead to people coming into contact with infected bodily fluids.

shruikan2553

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Well it was only a matter of time. He has been back in the US since the 20th so could have infected others. Hopefully they will be able to trace anyone he may have been in contact with and isolate them.

Just saw some more about this on CNN. Apparently he sought medical care on the 24th but it wasn't until the 28th that he was isolated, despite showing ebola symptoms and having recently arrived from Liberia. Isn't the 'superior healthcare' in developed countries supposed to stop these kind of mistakes happening? I'd be surprised if others haven't been infected tbh.

Welcome to the US, where a trip to the hospital can end with losing your house.

Does seem like a massive cock up. Man who was in place with ebola, showing ebola like symptoms, that should be grand.

Smidge

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Or vomiting/having diarrhea in public restrooms, not washing his hands, using public transport, sneezing or coughing near people etc. all these things could lead to people coming into contact with infected bodily fluids.

Also, using restaurants that didnt clean down ever single thing with disinfectants after he left(a wipe of a cloth i'm sure wouldn't be enough to kill any trace of ebola left on a chair etc he used).

Peist2007

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Or vomiting/having diarrhea in public restrooms, not washing his hands, using public transport, sneezing or coughing near people etc. all these things could lead to people coming into contact with infected bodily fluids.

Or even exhaling. The disease is not airborne but any time we exhale we emit droplets outwards. Thinking of all that recycled air on that plane.

Peist2007

Smidge wrote: »

Also, using restaurants that didnt clean down ever single thing with disinfectants after he left(a wipe of a cloth i'm sure wouldn't be enough to kill any trace of ebola left on a chair etc he used).

Ebola lives on hard surfaces for up to 60 days (so i have read)

ceadaoin.

shruikan2553 wrote: »

Welcome to the US, where a trip to the hospital can end with losing your house.

Does seem like a massive cock up. Man who was in place with ebola, showing ebola like symptoms, that should be grand.

Especially considering hospitals had recently been briefed about ebola and what protocol to follow if people arrive showing symptoms who have recently travelled to west Africa. Somebody dropped the ball big time here.

There is a sizeable population in the US who don't seek treatment when they are sick because they can't afford it. Or who go into work sick because they can't afford to lose a days pay. Even if you have insurance it can still be expensive. I'm not sure even the top insurance package would cover 3 weeks in quarantine?

Smidge

Peist2007 wrote: »

Or even exhaling. The disease is not airborne but any time we exhale we emit droplets outwards. Thinking of all that recycled air on that plane.

Kinda the point I was trying to make in relation to URL's post.
If this disease was as easy to contain as simply "not riding everyone or spitting in their faces", well I guess it would have been contained by now.
Decent incubation period with little or no symptoms on this disease hence its virulence sadly.

Smidge

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Especially considering hospitals had recently been briefed about ebola and what protocol to follow if people arrive showing symptoms who have recently travelled to west Africa. Somebody dropped the ball big time here.

There is a sizeable population in the US who don't seek treatment when they are sick because they can't afford it. Or who go into work sick because they can't afford to lose a days pay. Even if you have insurance it can still be expensive. I'm not sure even the top insurance package would cover 3 weeks in quarantine?

That's exactly what is worrying about cases cropping up in the US.
So many people can't afford to see a Dr. over there, so the just don't.
And considering that Ebola first resembles flu symptoms well....it just doesn't bear thinking about

ProfessorPlum

Peist2007 wrote: »

Or even exhaling. The disease is not airborne but any time we exhale we emit droplets outwards. Thinking of all that recycled air on that plane.

As you said, the virus isn't airborne, so recycled air isn't a risk. Also modern aircraft have pretty good HEPA filters which are estimated to remove at least 99% of bacteria and viruses. The air on the plane is therefore a lot cleaner than air in pretty much any other enclosed space.

I'm sure the CDC are tracing and assessing all his contacts as we speak. At least I hope they are.

Sea Sharp

If he felt the need to the hospital it's unlikely he was out and about shaking hands with the general population.

jamesbere

All the doomsday preppers in the US will be scrambling to their bunkers on hearing this news

My name is URL

Sea Sharp wrote: »

If he felt the need to the hospital it's unlikely he was out and about shaking hands with the general population.

You shut up. He was all over the place, shitting on door handles and vomiting in water fountains. Everyone's gonna die

Smidge

My name is URL wrote: »

You shut up. He was all over the place, shitting on door handles and vomiting in water fountains. Everyone's gonna die

And this is exactly the type of ignorance to the disease that has enabled its spread in Africa :rolleyes:

My name is URL

Smidge wrote: »

And this is exactly the type of ignorance to the disease that has enabled its spread in Africa :rolleyes:

No.. uneducated and frightened, panicked populations; hiding bodies and sick people, and blaming evil western conspiracies & spirits are to blame for that.

Smidge

My name is URL wrote: »

No.. uneducated and frightened, panicked populations; hiding bodies and sick people, and blaming evil western conspiracies & spirits are to blame for that.

They also thought that it could only be contracted by the methods you described.
Also, from this post you obviously have a clear understanding of the disease so why were you so flippant and facetious in your other comments here?
They may be "only" poor Africans who are dying in their droves...still no need for the casual disregard.