Ebola virus outbreak

Peist2007

Spring Onion wrote: »

This AH thread provides another fascinating insight into the human psyche. You can almost witness the angry mob forming.

I think you're just a little miffed that you have been wrong about this outbreak all along

In Lonesome Dove

Deleted User wrote: »

I can imagine the Irish hospitals treating an Ebola patient on a trolley in the corridor of A&E for a couple of days while waiting for a bed to become available.

This comment is brilliant, I laughed so much at it.

gozunda

In Lonesome Dove wrote: »

This comment is brilliant, I laughed so much at it.

Alas - true situation

A relative once ended up in isolation in the Mater in Dublin after not been seen by a doctor for approximately 18 hours in A&E. They were eventually placed in isolation - but only health staff were using protective medical gear - visiting family members were told 'ah sure your probably already been in contact"'

Luckily it turned out not to be an infectious condition ...

If Ebola does arrive we are shafted tbh ...

davo2001

Avalynn Microscopic Rocker wrote: »

I'd choose that over racism.

Then you're an idiot, I seriously hope you are joking.

Kunkka

youtube! wrote: »

This is how I see it .

1) More people become infected.

2) Some will get treatment and some of those will survive.

3) Some won't survive because they won't be strong enough even with treatment.

4) Others who probably could survive won't be able to get treatment as the health service becomes innundated .

5) So those people along with all the others will die.

6) Now the general population is at risk so many more will contract.

7) Thousands of untreated Ebola victims will roam the streets desperate for help

8) Many will die on the streets but not before infecting even more people.

9) A state of emergency and Martial law will be imposed.

10) At this stage camps will be set up to cope but of course all too late, in effect we will witness a Zombie Apocalypse .


Sorry if that all sounds a bit negative but I honestly believe it could play out like that unless we take drastic action NOW.

The way the disease is at the moment this is extremely dramatic.

The reason that it is has spread so quickly in the areas that it has is due to the close proximity of each infected person along with a lot of human error. The nurse in Spain that contracted it got it apparently from touching her face with gloves after treating a patient..... in all due respect to her and her family that is just insanity in that environment if that was indeed the case.

It's not airborne as it stands & the viciousness of the virus works in the world's favor as people die too quickly to spread it to others. I'll start to worry if the virus somehow mutates and becomes airborne which is very unlikely but possible...

I was in one of the first 500 cases of swine flu in Ireland when it came about years ago so if anyone was to be paranoid it would be me trust me(on a side note that was absolutely horrible, took me months for my breathing to recover fully)! The health service done a pretty good job of containing that in fairness to them. I know Ebola is much more serious if you become infected but that's an example of the health service dealing with something serious like that while under pressure.

wazky

Bird flu and pig flu were supposed to kill me before, now it's this sh1t, bring it on you arse bleeders.

FullblownRose

About the Spanish nurse touching her face. That would be much easier to do than we might realise. Scratching at an itch or reflexively brushing your hand over your face (or anywhere you feel a tickle or itch on your skin) or rubbing at it, they are automatic reactions we make, a throw back to a time when we might have been more at risk of being bitten or stung by somothing venomous or smoething that could transmit infection through a sting into human skin. Maybe that involuntary tendency to brush at the skin is an even stronger urge when you've been close to someone with something dangerous like Ebola, as subconsciously you more would be wary of the danger of infection than usual so you might react without thinking to a hair brushing your own face for example, and try to rub it away.

I reckon I touch my face countless times a day. I do it without thinking, and when I'm concentrating on something too. Makeup rarely stays put for long! So, it does interest me to know how great the risk of unwittingly touching a hard surface that's been coughed or sneezed on by an infected person, and transferring the virus to the face.

I know Ebola doesn't cause sneezing but ordinary things that an infected erson might be subect to, like dry air from central heating, dust, pre existing sinus problems or allergies and ordinary colds, do.

FullblownRose

I had swine flu and barely knew i had it. it sounds like i was lucky!

FullblownRose

And will soe people be less inclined to wash their hands because of the water charges :O

littlemac1980

It's all about the Benjamins.

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2014/10/08/ebola-new-world-bank-group-study-forecasts-billions-in-economic-loss-if-epidemic-lasts-longer-spreads-in-west-africa

littlemac1980

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Here's a useful map applet that allows you to scroll through the timeline of the reported cases Ebola Outbreak.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-31/ebola-timeline-deadliest-outbreak/5639060

You'll see that the shocking rate at which the number of infected is growing.

From:

17.04.2014 - 18.05.2014 - the number of cases grew from 249 to 305.

18.05.2014 - 16.06.2014 - 305 to 666

16.06.2014 - 12.07.2014 - 666 to 967

12.07.2014. - 11.08.2014 - 967 to 1977

11.08.2014 - 07.09.2014 - 1977 to 4392

07.09.2014 - 01.10.2014 - 4392 to 7492.

Analysing the above figures a little more shows us the corresponding increase in the daily rate of infection over those time periods.

Of course it must be borne in mind - that the above figures represent the characteristics of contagion of the disease at an early stage and may not be absolutely accurate in terms of demonstrating the "exponent" of increase.

Also it must be considered a likely factor that the number of new cases may have artificially jumped/or stalled in certain periods due to the fact that "new cases" really means "new cases detected" and would be influenced by greater or lesser efforts to detect.

The accuracy of the figures is obviously limited by both the limited range of data available and the stage at which the contagion is at (very early stage), it would obviously be much better to have a number of years data of this strain and the numbers of people affected to give more accurate figures, nevertheless the rate of growth is a cause for concern should a serious increase in efforts to contain this virus and stall or reverse the spread not be implemented ASAP.

17.04.2014 - 18.05.2014 - 31 days - 56 new cases - 1.8 new cases per day.

18.05.2014 - 16.06.2014 - 29 days - 361 new cases - 12.45 new cases per day.

16.06.2014 - 12.07.2014 - 26 days - 301 new cases - 11.58 new cases per day.

12.07.2014. - 11.08.2014 - 30 days - 1010 new cases - 33.67 new cases per day.

11.08.2014 - 07.09.2014 - 27 days - 2415 new cases - 89.44 new cases per day.

07.09.2014 - 01.10.2014 - 24 days - 3100 new cases - 129.17 new cases per day.

realweirdo

This reason for the rapid expansion in new numbers would be largely down to the fact the countries in question can deal with small numbers but eventually they reach a tipping point where they can't isolate people or track their contacts. That tipping point has been reached and the numbers will continue to grow exponentially without a serious international effort. So far there has been no serious international effort.

People still think this outbreak is the same as previous ones, if a bit more serious, but eventually the Africans will get it under control largely by themselves. They won't. This looks like the big one.

littlemac1980

realweirdo wrote: »

This reason for the rapid expansion in new numbers would be largely down to the fact the countries in question can deal with small numbers but eventually they reach a tipping point where they can't isolate people or track their contacts. That tipping point has been reached and the numbers will continue to grow exponentially without a serious international effort. So far there has been no serious international effort.

People still think this outbreak is the same as previous ones, if a bit more serious, but eventually the Africans will get it under control largely by themselves. They won't. This looks like the big one.

Yes - that's likely another factor. There would be many, and each would affect the accuracy of projecting what might happen in the future, and in different circumstances with different factors and weights.

Nevertheless you have to work with what's available and unfortunately in 12-18 months time the projections may be much more accurate, but by then, if nothing serious is done now, the projections might be purely academic in terms of assistance.

realweirdo

I think the exponential model of growth is probably the most accurate going forward. 1 person infects on average 2 more and so on. So if this was followed, 3000 new cases this month, 5-6000 new cases next moth, 10-12000 the month after. And so on. In 6 months you could be talking 100,000 new cases a month.

People are saying, yeh but, they will get it under control. However, they've already lost the point where it can be controlled. It can only be controlled if you isolate sick patients almost immediately and track down and monitor their contacts. In Liberia and Sierra Leone they have reached the stage where that is no longer possible. In other words, its out of control.

snubbleste

Spanish newspaper 'finds' her mobile number and calls her..
El Mundo - 'I don't know how I caught Ebola'

also she is deteriorating fast
http://www.elmundo.es/madrid/2014/10/08/54346601e2704e35598b4571.html

littlemac1980

realweirdo wrote: »

I think the exponential model of growth is probably the most accurate going forward. 1 person infects on average 2 more and so on. So if this was followed, 3000 new cases this month, 5-6000 new cases next moth, 10-12000 the month after. And so on. In 6 months you could be talking 100,000 new cases a month.

People are saying, yeh but, they will get it under control. However, they've already lost the point where it can be controlled. It can only be controlled if you isolate sick patients almost immediately and track down and monitor their contacts. In Liberia and Sierra Leone they have reached the stage where that is no longer possible. In other words, its out of control.

Oh its definitely exponential - there's no doubt about that - a linear model of growth couldn't apply to any such situation. The question is what is the relevant exponent.

It's likely not fixed and most likely will be a complex function itself dependant on the number of cases itself.

The global rate of growth would obviously be much different than a local rate of growth and local rates of growth would be heavily influenced by health care standards and population densities, and social factors, infrastructure etc.

Without intervention both local and global rates of growth will tend to converge, but the question is at what rate such convergence takes places, and where are the critical points in isolated local contagions which must be prevented to stop a local infection materially affecting the exponential of global rate.

fedor.2.

At what stage, if any, should we panic like?

littlemac1980

snubbleste wrote: »

Spanish newspaper 'finds' her mobile number and calls her..
El Mundo - 'I don't know how I caught Ebola'

also she is deteriorating fast
http://www.elmundo.es/madrid/2014/10/08/54346601e2704e35598b4571.html

Yeah I found it a little too convenient that somehow they "discovered" she had contracted the Virus from a specific instance she touched her face with her glove.

In fact other news reports simply stated "She may have contracted the disease in such manner."

I think the Spanish authorities are under a lot of pressure both nationally and internationally to explain what went wrong and to an extent this reminds me of the Thai Police parading the two alleged "murderers" around the beach in Thailand recently - anyone with a bit of sense would view the situation with a certain amount of skepticism at least in the absence of clearer objective evidence.

littlemac1980

fedor.2. wrote: »

At what stage, if any, should we panic like?

I'd be inclined to say as soon as there is a confirmed case in Ireland take precautions not to expose yourself unnecessarily to any risk of infection.

If there are more than one case its up to yourself - but I for one will probably take my chances with a few books and some quality home time until I see what happens.

Unfortunately, I'm not a pessimistic person, but I tend to agree with most posters here that suggest that Ireland's health system is totally incapable of dealing with this Virus.

The cynic in me would even go so far as to suggest that a case of Ebola here would be exactly what the Unions have been waiting for and you'd see strikes of Nurses and Junior doctors all over the place. Kind of like the Train Strike for All-Ireland weekend - a good opportunity to put a gun to the governments head and get a pay rise.

fedor.2.

littlemac1980 wrote: »

I'd be inclined to say as soon as there is a confirmed case in Ireland take precautions not to expose yourself unnecessarily to any risk of infection.

If there are more than one case its up to yourself - but I for one will probably take my chances with a few books and some quality home time until I see what happens.

Unfortunately, I'm not a pessimistic person, but I tend to agree with most posters here that suggest that Ireland's health system is totally incapable of dealing with this Virus.

The cynic in me would even go so far as to suggest that a case of Ebola here would be exactly what the Unions have been waiting for and you'd see strikes of Nurses and Junior doctors all over the place. Kind of like the Train Strike for All-Ireland weekend - a good opportunity to put a gun to the governments head and get a pay rise.

Sh1t, that does not sound good at all

Sclosages

How is it passing on then?

Sclosages

Are all patients shagging/kissing/pissing/bleeding on each other? How have so so many people, medical professionals with space suits on them contracting it?
That is what worries me!

FullblownRose

Sclosages wrote: »

Are all patients shagging/kissing/pissing/bleeding on each other? How have so so many people, medical professionals with space suits on them contracting it?
That is what worries me!

The suits in the Spanish case were only designed for grade 2 disease protection when they needed a higher grade of protective suit for dealing with Ebola.

Sclosages

FullblownRose wrote: »

The suits in the Spanish case were only designed for grade 2 disease protection when they needed a higher grade of protective suit for dealing with Ebola.

I expect Ireland will have grade 1 then lol.

wildefalcon

Sclosages wrote: »

Are all patients shagging/kissing/pissing/bleeding on each other? How have so so many people, medical professionals with space suits on them contracting it?
That is what worries me!

Working in protective gear is not very nice, it's hot, uncomfortable, itchy and smelly.

If you have an itch on your nose, what do you do? Go into decon and remove the suit for disposal, scratch and get a new suit on? Fine, if there are unlimited resources, but if there are no new suits? Some people will just lift the mask and scratch their nose.

Ever had a nose Itch? See how long you could go without scratching it!

FullblownRose

fedor.2. wrote: »

At what stage, if any, should we panic like?

Wait for the results of the testing of anyone currently being monitored after being in contact with the ones who actually have ebola (the man in texas who caught it in liberia, or the spanish nurse who caught it from the repatriated missionary)

. If any of the people being monitired, have caught it, wait and see what the explanation is for how they caught it.

Only if someone catches it without there being an obvious reason such as having touched a patient who was vomiting or handling medical waste without protection, then it would be a worry and I would personally start taking it *more* seriously.

FullblownRose

Sclosages wrote: »

I expect Ireland will have grade 1 then lol.

Eh, yes, probably :O Who knows?

nyarlothothep

Norovirus isn't airborne except for vomit particulates afaik yet it spreads like wildfire. I'd imagine it's comparable in this sense for ebola.

Spring Onion

Peist2007 wrote: »

I think you're just a little miffed that you have been wrong about this outbreak all along

Yes of course - let's have a retrospective in 2015 and see who was over-hyping the situation. To be honest I find this thread absolutely fascinating. There is a thesis here for sure!
Some lad just suggested that the nurses and doctors will strike for more money to deal with ebola. You cant make this stuff up, well actually most of you can.

Streetwalker

fedor.2. wrote: »

At what stage, if any, should we panic like?

No need for panic but it is worrying. I simply don't believe the "it isn't airborne" argument at this stage. That's not to say if you are in the same room as someone who has it you will catch it but yeah if they are couching/sneezing beside you I think you are in trouble.

Problem is worldwide I see no leadership in taking on the problem.