Ebola virus outbreak

Canis Lupus

CelticRambler wrote: »

Actually, I do. Having training in statistics and disease epidemiology comes in handy sometimes. :cool:

All "epidemics" have exponential growth when people first start taking them seriously - even non-infectious non-disease epidemics - so the fact that we're seeing more cases now than a year ago is perfectly normal. It doesn't mean it's going to continue into the future. For that, you need to look at the basic reproduction number (R0)

For Ebola, the R0 value is more than one, so it won't die out, but less than 2 which puts it lower than 'flu, SARS, HIV and way way way way way lower than measles (R0=12-18).

Did our mothers all panic and run around like headless chickens when we got measles? No they didn't ... or at least my generation's mothers didn't. There's a sizeable chunk of the boards.ie population that's never even seen a case of measles because ye were all vaccinated, and I'm sure there are some on here who object to having their own children vaccinated because they think measles is a mild illness.

So l'll stand by my earlier comment: there is no Ebola crisis - it's just an interesting spike in an otherwise ordinary virus's life, but it makes great "reality" TV news.

Now just wait for someone to tell you it could go airborne.....

Karl Stein

Canis Lupus wrote: »

Now just wait for someone to tell you it could go airborne.....

Or when it gets hungry for living flesh it can burst out of the deceased victim and attach itself to an uninfected host.

I just listened to the reverse 911 call the neighbours of nurse received early this morning . Kind of creepy. Can't link but the recording is available on wfaa Dallas. They say the woman's pet will be handled by animal welfare. Unlike Spanish authorities who put down Spanish nurses dog

My name is URL

Jake1 wrote: »

Can't link but the recording is available on wfaa Dallas.

Jesus that fcuking horrible. I'd sooner get ebola than navigate my way through that website.

jacksie66

This post has been deleted.

Joe Doe

Just spotted link for newsnow feed to news about some folks called 'alison' offering free 'ebola prevention course', based in Galway apparently offering free e-learning. Not sure about the name for an educational co.

think requires pre-reg:
http://alison.com/courses/Understanding-the-Ebola-Virus-and-How-You-Can-Avoid-It

Might brush up on the aul C+ and perhaps take the free Chinese diploma too, maybe Diploma in Business Process Management after that, sounds good (if free) like it says...

WakeUp

CelticRambler wrote: »

Actually, I do. Having training in statistics and disease epidemiology comes in handy sometimes. :cool:

All "epidemics" have exponential growth when people first start taking them seriously - even non-infectious non-disease epidemics - so the fact that we're seeing more cases now than a year ago is perfectly normal. It doesn't mean it's going to continue into the future. For that, you need to look at the basic reproduction number (R0)

For Ebola, the R0 value is more than one, so it won't die out, but less than 2 which puts it lower than 'flu, SARS, HIV and way way way way way lower than measles (R0=12-18).

Did our mothers all panic and run around like headless chickens when we got measles? No they didn't ... or at least my generation's mothers didn't. There's a sizeable chunk of the boards.ie population that's never even seen a case of measles because ye were all vaccinated, and I'm sure there are some on here who object to having their own children vaccinated because they think measles is a mild illness.

So l'll stand by my earlier comment: there is no Ebola crisis - it's just an interesting spike in an otherwise ordinary virus's life, but it makes great "reality" TV news.

with all due respect tell the people in those affected countries there is no ebola crisis and Im sure they would disagree with you. there is nothing perfectly normal about this outbreak , its unprecedented, 7 or 8 thousand confirmed cases of ebola and that number is thought to be understated. its gone from rural villages into urban cities. its traveled continents. that isnt normal not sure how you can say it is. and I dont think you can compare ebola to flu or sars or hiv and certainly not the measles. as Im sure you aware unless we get ahead of the curve ( last estimate I seen was 70% of cases need to be in treatment before xmas) this will continue on an exponential curve. or is that a fair comment?? because on one hand you say that doesnt mean infection rates will continue yet on the other with regard to the reproduction number say it isnt going to die out. certainly is no need to panic but certainly stay on our toes and be aware of what is going on. normalicy bias isnt going to help anyone the reality of the situation means it needs watching closely. anything else in my opinion would be negligent and possibly dangerous.

ceadaoin.

CelticRambler wrote: »

So l'll stand by my earlier comment: there is no Ebola crisis - it's just an interesting spike in an otherwise ordinary virus's life, but it makes great "reality" TV news.

Well the WHO disagree with you on that. I guess you know better though?

Streetwalker

CelticRambler wrote: »

Actually, I do. Having training in statistics and disease epidemiology comes in handy sometimes. :cool:

All "epidemics" have exponential growth when people first start taking them seriously - even non-infectious non-disease epidemics - so the fact that we're seeing more cases now than a year ago is perfectly normal. It doesn't mean it's going to continue into the future. For that, you need to look at the basic reproduction number (R0)

For Ebola, the R0 value is more than one, so it won't die out, but less than 2 which puts it lower than 'flu, SARS, HIV and way way way way way lower than measles (R0=12-18).

Did our mothers all panic and run around like headless chickens when we got measles? No they didn't ... or at least my generation's mothers didn't. There's a sizeable chunk of the boards.ie population that's never even seen a case of measles because ye were all vaccinated, and I'm sure there are some on here who object to having their own children vaccinated because they think measles is a mild illness.

So l'll stand by my earlier comment: there is no Ebola crisis - it's just an interesting spike in an otherwise ordinary virus's life, but it makes great "reality" TV news.

Reality TV news wtf?? 4000 people have died this is no joke.

ProfessorPlum

CelticRambler wrote: »

Actually, I do. Having training in statistics and disease epidemiology comes in handy sometimes. :cool:

All "epidemics" have exponential growth when people first start taking them seriously - even non-infectious non-disease epidemics - so the fact that we're seeing more cases now than a year ago is perfectly normal. It doesn't mean it's going to continue into the future. For that, you need to look at the basic reproduction number (R0)

For Ebola, the R0 value is more than one, so it won't die out, but less than 2 which puts it lower than 'flu, SARS, HIV and way way way way way lower than measles (R0=12-18).

Did our mothers all panic and run around like headless chickens when we got measles? No they didn't ... or at least my generation's mothers didn't. There's a sizeable chunk of the boards.ie population that's never even seen a case of measles because ye were all vaccinated, and I'm sure there are some on here who object to having their own children vaccinated because they think measles is a mild illness.

So l'll stand by my earlier comment: there is no Ebola crisis - it's just an interesting spike in an otherwise ordinary virus's life, but it makes great "reality" TV news.

I can only hope you learned your 'disease epidemiology' in a maths/stats setting and not a health care one. Because the blindingly obvious point you seem to have missed, is the unusually high mortality rate and lack of immunity in the general population. That is what makes this current outbreak a crisis, not it's communicability. Do you think our mothers would have been panicking if 70% of children died from measles? Eh, yeah, I think they might. In the same way that. somewhere around 70% of people are infected with the virus CMV, but as it almost always causes absolutely no problem (except in pregnant women, infected during pregnancy), nobody's panicking about that either. Do you see the 'subtle' difference?

I think you point is a shining verification of miss no stars point earlier in the thread that stats are less than useless when missapplied.

Spring Onion

jacksie66 wrote: »

It's another bird flu/swine flu esc panic. Lots of noise about it now but when the media gets bored of it you'll hear very little about it..

I think that's happening already. Now they are printing this garbage.

http://www.independent.ie/sport/leftfield/former-chelsea-star-michael-essien-denies-twitter-rumour-that-he-has-ebola-30658988.html

Akrasia

CelticRambler wrote: »

Actually, I do. Having training in statistics and disease epidemiology comes in handy sometimes. :cool:

All "epidemics" have exponential growth when people first start taking them seriously - even non-infectious non-disease epidemics - so the fact that we're seeing more cases now than a year ago is perfectly normal. It doesn't mean it's going to continue into the future. For that, you need to look at the basic reproduction number (R0)

For Ebola, the R0 value is more than one, so it won't die out, but less than 2 which puts it lower than 'flu, SARS, HIV and way way way way way lower than measles (R0=12-18).

Did our mothers all panic and run around like headless chickens when we got measles? No they didn't ... or at least my generation's mothers didn't. There's a sizeable chunk of the boards.ie population that's never even seen a case of measles because ye were all vaccinated, and I'm sure there are some on here who object to having their own children vaccinated because they think measles is a mild illness.

So l'll stand by my earlier comment: there is no Ebola crisis - it's just an interesting spike in an otherwise ordinary virus's life, but it makes great "reality" TV news.

it's all about resources. Containing ebola takes a lot of resources. Patients have to be treated in isolation units, and for every patient with a confirmed case, contact tracing needs to happen and others need to be closely observed for symptoms.

When the numbers are small, this is not a big deal, but as more people get infected, the resource requirements increase exponentially and when the capacity of the health services are reached, then where do the infected receive their treatment? We know how dangerous it is to treat infected patients even when the very best facilities are available.

If ebola gets into densly populated shanty towns, we will lose any ability to contain the infection. These are over crowded places with very poor sanitation.

People will panic and try to get out of the infected areas, some of these people may carry the infection with them and will be motivated to avoid authorities while they are asymptomatic. Millions of potential disease vectors in places with nowhere near the resources required to treat and isolate people do not lead to a happy ending.

I'm not saying we should panic, but we absolutely should not be complacent about this.

Putinovsky

lol the skeptics keep getting proven wrong time and time again.

Akrasia

Putinovsky wrote: »

lol the skeptics keep getting proven wrong time and time again.

Everyone should be skeptical, especially about emotive topics like this, but skeptical thinking involves critically assessing the evidence and seeking out the best quality information before forming your opinion.

The experts in this situation are the WHO and the CDC and they are stating that we need to take this threat seriously and we should really be sending more resources to assist Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone to contain the epidemic before it gets completely out of control

ThinkAboutIt

Whats the real chances of it coming to Ireland?

smash

jacksie66 wrote: »

It's another bird flu/swine flu esc panic. Lots of noise about it now but when the media gets bored of it you'll hear very little about it..

It would be great if it was another bird flu/swine flu panic but it's not. Lets face it, it's by far the biggest threat to humanity.

wildefalcon

Moderate, I'd say, in the short term. Not much traffic between there and here.

If it gets a hold in a major western city, then that changes.

RobertKK

A professor at Purdue University in the US who studied Ebola since 2003, says it is important to get Ebola under control quickly,as the longer it takes, the higher the chances it could mutate and become airborne.

http://www.theindychannel.com/news/local-news/purdue-professor-says-ebola-primed-to-go-airborne

handlemaster

What have the health boards shown that they can contain this if it arises. Eg man/woman gets off plane and actually says to someone. .. i have a fever etc etc. Whats the plan ? Is everyone trained on what to do. Is the equipment in the air port? What of the other passengers.... or is it sure we will be grand ! As seen from the US a slight F..Up and were in it big time.

Spring Onion

ThinkAboutIt wrote: »

Whats the real chances of it coming to Ireland?

Slim but if it does arrive (remember Spain imported it), I suspect only a small number of people will be affected and the mortality rate to be < 50%. If there over 5 cases by 2015, I would be very surprised.

Spring Onion

smash wrote: »

It would be great if it was another bird flu/swine flu panic but it's not. Lets face it, it's by far the biggest threat to humanity.

The highs and lows of this thread are classic!
I suspects lots of WUMs.

run_Forrest_run

we give Africa Geldof and they give us Ebola, he may be an annoying clown but it still doesn't seem a fair deal.

Streetwalker

wildefalcon wrote: »

Moderate, I'd say, in the short term. Not much traffic between there and here.

If it gets a hold in a major western city, then that changes.

Doesn't have to be a major western city. Lagos or Dehli for example and we are all in deep dog s h i t.

MadYaker

smash wrote: »

It would be great if it was another bird flu/swine flu panic but it's not. Lets face it, it's by far the biggest threat to humanity.

Christ.....

Putinovsky

MadYaker wrote: »

Christ.....

Could you tell me a bigger threat at the moment?

ISIS? lol

Spring Onion

Putinovsky wrote: »

Could you tell me a bigger threat at the moment?

Stupid humans.

smash

Spring Onion wrote: »

The highs and lows of this thread are classic!
I suspects lots of WUMs.

MadYaker wrote: »

Christ.....

It's true. If it goes airborne then we're pretty fcuked.

Peist2007

Spring Onion wrote: »

Slim but if it does arrive (remember Spain imported it), I suspect only a small number of people will be affected and the mortality rate to be < 50%. If there over 5 cases by 2015, I would be very surprised.

Why would the mortality rate of the disease decrease as it crosses the Irish border?

MadYaker

Putinovsky wrote: »

Could you tell me a bigger threat at the moment?

ISIS? lol

A bigger threat to your immediate safety? Do you drive a car, because that's a lot more likely to kill you than ebola is.

A bigger threat to humanity? Climate Change, loss of biodiversity, diminishing availability of fresh water causing wars, asteroid impact. All these are more of a threat to humanity than ebola.

The reality is that humans are more of a threat to humans than anything else and when humanity eventually ends it will most likely be our own doing. Not ebola.

Akrasia

smash wrote: »

It's true. If it goes airborne then we're pretty fcuked.

And if it turns into a computer virus it could infect the entire internet in a matter of hours!!