Ebola virus outbreak

CelticRambler

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

I can only hope you learned your 'disease epidemiology' in a maths/stats setting and not a health care one. Because the blindingly obvious point you seem to have missed, is the unusually high mortality rate and lack of immunity in the general population. That is what makes this current outbreak a crisis, not it's communicability.

I'm sorry to dash your hopes, but yes, it's in a health-care setting, with my qualificiations (and authority to call in the dogs of war) last validated in July. 50% mortality is not high. The diseases that I and my colleagues watch out for and keep from the shores of Erin and other parts of Europe typically have mortality rates of around 100% ... and even if they don't, we sometimes implement variations of JapaneseLove's strategy anyway, just to make sure the problem is contained and ye can all sleep soundly in your beds.

Mortality is almost always high when new, virulent microbes appear, and once a sufficient number of individuals is affected, immunity develops. As someone else has pointed out, mortality rates in much of Africa have little to do with the causal agent and a lot to do with resources, infrastructure and religious/supersitious beliefs. Of course, we in the west would much rather fund-raise 200000€ to send one sick European child to the US for an operation with a 50-50 chance of success than spend the same on a bunch of African orphans.

Streetwalker

littlemac1980 wrote: »

US urges other countries to step up to the plate and get involved ASAP.

Seems that there is still a $300 million shortfall in what the UN are looking for at this stage.



It's John Kerry's statement - there's a certain amount of the typical rhetoric you expect in Political statements, but in this case I think it rings true:

"Providing this money is a critical component of our ability to be able to meet this challenge, and we need people to step up now. Now is the time for action, not words. And frankly, there is not a moment to waste in this effort."

It's actually frightening how slow the response of the world is to Ebola.

ProfessorPlum

CelticRambler wrote: »

I'm sorry to dash your hopes, but yes, it's in a health-care setting, with my qualificiations (and authority to call in the dogs of war) last validated in July. 50% mortality is not high. The diseases that I and my colleagues watch out for and keep from the shores of Erin and other parts of Europe typically have mortality rates of around 100% ... and even if they don't, we sometimes implement variations of JapaneseLove's strategy anyway, just to make sure the problem is contained and ye can all sleep soundly in your beds.

Mortality is almost always high when new, virulent microbes appear, and once a sufficient number of individuals is affected, immunity develops. As someone else has pointed out, mortality rates in much of Africa have little to do with the causal agent and a lot to do with resources, infrastructure and religious/supersitious beliefs. Of course, we in the west would much rather fund-raise 200000€ to send one sick European child to the US for an operation with a 50-50 chance of success than spend the same on a bunch of African orphans.

You think that 50% mortality isn't high? I think most of the civilian medical population would disagree with you.
I would hope that aquired immunity will come about by a vaccination program rather than waiting for the populous to become infected and half of them die before we see any useful levels of immunity in the population.
Glad to know that you're keeping us safe from the other nasties you mention. Is be interested to hear about them. Keep collecting those CME points btw.

WakeUp

CelticRambler wrote: »

I'm sorry to dash your hopes, but yes, it's in a health-care setting, with my qualificiations (and authority to call in the dogs of war) last validated in July. 50% mortality is not high. The diseases that I and my colleagues watch out for and keep from the shores of Erin and other parts of Europe typically have mortality rates of around 100% ... and even if they don't, we sometimes implement variations of JapaneseLove's strategy anyway, just to make sure the problem is contained and ye can all sleep soundly in your beds.

Mortality is almost always high when new, virulent microbes appear, and once a sufficient number of individuals is affected, immunity develops. As someone else has pointed out, mortality rates in much of Africa have little to do with the causal agent and a lot to do with resources, infrastructure and religious/supersitious beliefs. Of course, we in the west would much rather fund-raise 200000€ to send one sick European child to the US for an operation with a 50-50 chance of success than spend the same on a bunch of African orphans.

just as a matter of interest what infectious diseases would these be?..and if you are as you say in a position and responsible for looking out for such things why arent you and your colleagues keeping an eye out for ebola? or at least aware/concerned about the possibility of it reaching here. that seems lax bordering on negligent to me. if that is indeed true may I respectfully suggest that you and your colleagues get the phuckin finger out. how can you say a 50% mortality rate isnt high. its hardly low is it. how does that work?..that are a couple of other things in what you are saying here that Im not to be sure about either. so dont keep an eye on ebola because what. because we will develop an immunity for it. is that what you are saying...

ProfessorPlum

ceadaoin. wrote: »

I know, it's ridiculous. It's more likely got to do with the fact that he was uninsured, not his race. Did he actually disclose that he had been in contact with someone who had ebola? If not, why not? I'm sure if he had been upfront from the start he would have been admitted and isolated straight away.

According to the reports I've read, he volunteered that he had recently arrived from Liberia. That together with his symptoms should have set the hospitals protocol into action. That didn't happen, so the family have every right to be angry. Turning it into a 'race' issue is another story and potentially very dangerous. Jessie Jackson should know better.

FullblownRose

CelticRambler wrote: »

we sometimes implement variations of JapaneseLove's strategy anyway, just to make sure the problem is contained and ye can all sleep soundly in your beds.

Hmmm..?

ProfessorPlum

Reminds me of Col. Nathan R Jessoup (Jack Nicholson) in 'A Few Good Men'!

"And my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves lives. You don't want the truth because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that wall, you need me on that wall"


"I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very freedom that I provide, and then questions the manner in which I provide it."

Id hate to be flying in the US right now with all the scares. More passengers stuck n runway this time Bostons Loan. They have been on the runway waiting to get off for 2 1/2 hrs .Id go bananas

Emirates flight from Dubai . They had just been at Mecca. Reported Flu symptoms

They removed 5 sick passengers. Full hazmat routine.
Wouldnt SERS or MES be more of a concern considering the location


http://www.wcvb.com/live/25817004

read tweet, which claimed passengers had to wear Tyvek suits. How true that is, I dont know

ceadaoin.

Jake1 wrote: »

Id hate to be flying in the US right now with all the scares. More passengers stuck n runway this time Bostons Loan. They have been on the runway waiting to get off for 2 1/2 hrs .Id go bananas

Emirates flight from Dubai . They had just been at Mecca. Reported Flu symptoms

They removed 5 sick passengers. Full hazmat routine.
Wouldnt SERS or MES be more of a concern considering the location


http://www.wcvb.com/live/25817004

read tweet, which claimed passengers had to wear Tyvek suits. How true that is, I dont know

I wonder how much it costs each time they are sending these hazmat teams to meet planes? It's pretty common for passengers to be ill on planes. I'm sure it's unsustainable in the long term to keep doing this.

Although mers is a possibility in this case so it would be good if that was caught straight away.

CelticRambler

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

Reminds me of Col. Nathan R Jessoup (Jack Nicholson) in 'A Few Good Men'!

"And my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves lives. You don't want the truth because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that wall, you need me on that wall"


"I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very freedom that I provide, and then questions the manner in which I provide it."

Absolutely right. Especially the bit about "grotesque" - people think they want to know, but start talking at a party about how the pus shot out of that lymph node you were cutting through a few hours ago and ...

WakeUp wrote: »

just as a matter of interest what infectious diseases would these be?..and if you are as you say in a position and responsible for looking out for such things why arent you and your colleagues keeping an eye out for ebola?

Google "notifiable diseases" and you'll get the list. And d'you know what - some of us are keeping an eye out for things like this ... but our advice isn't always welcomed by know-better-boardsies (and who cares about the French anyway. It's not like they're Irish) :cool:

(Oh, and in case you're wondering, no, we haven't yet recorded a 'native' infection of chikungunya, but we did see a first case of 'native' dengue fever a few months ago. Anyone for a bottle of European mosquito repellent? )

WakeUp

CelticRambler wrote: »

Absolutely right. Especially the bit about "grotesque" - people think they want to know, but start talking at a party about how the pus shot out of that lymph node you were cutting through a few hours ago and ...



Google "notifiable diseases" and you'll get the list. And d'you know what - some of us are keeping an eye out for things like this ... but our advice isn't always welcomed by know-better-boardsies (and who cares about the French anyway. It's not like they're Irish) :cool:

(Oh, and in case you're wondering, no, we haven't yet recorded a 'native' infection of chikungunya, but we did see a first case of 'native' dengue fever a few months ago. Anyone for a bottle of European mosquito repellent? )

so who is "we" and "our"? are you speaking on behalf of yourself or a collection of people? you need to clarify that. your link doesnt work. I had a look at the list as per your original claim can you please point out the "100%" mortality rate infections that apparently you and your colleagues are more concerned with.

FullblownRose

I think some people are watching too much medical drama on t.v.

gozunda

CelticRambler wrote: »

Absolutely right. Especially the bit about "grotesque" - people think they want to know, but start talking at a party about how the pus shot out of that lymph node you were cutting through a few hours ago and ...

Google "notifiable diseases" and you'll get the list. And d'you know what - some of us are keeping an eye out for things like this ... but our advice isn't always welcomed by know-better-boardsies (and who cares about the French anyway. It's not like they're Irish) :cool:

(Oh, and in case you're wondering, no, we haven't yet recorded a 'native' infection of chikungunya, but we did see a first case of 'native' dengue fever a few months ago. Anyone for a bottle of European mosquito repellent? )

I think PP may have posted that as an ironic response from your supposition that 'you don't want to know the truth - cos you can't handle the truth' .... :rolleyes:

smash

The World Health Organisation has warned the epidemic is the "most severe... health emergency in modern times".

http://news.sky.com/story/1352495/ebola-enhanced-screening-starts-at-uk-airports

Creative Juices

smash wrote: »

The World Health Organisation has warned the epidemic is the "most severe... health emergency in modern times".

Why would the WHO use 3 dots to describe something?

mathie

smash wrote: »

The World Health Organisation has warned the epidemic is the "most severe... health emergency in modern times".

http://news.sky.com/story/1352495/ebola-enhanced-screening-starts-at-uk-airports

"Hordes of panicky people seem to be evacuating the town for some unknown reason. Professor, without knowing precisely what the danger is, would you say it's time for our viewers to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside?"

smash

Creative Juices wrote: »

Why would the WHO use 3 dots to describe something?

Go ask sky news, they reported it. But I also heard it on the radio this morning too.

gozunda

smash wrote: »

Go ask sky news, they reported it. But I also heard it on the radio this morning too.

+ Irish Independent - small ed pp25

'Ebola most serious health crisis in modern times' the World Health Organisation had warned

Lol - The WHO are sh/ting bricks and the Irish Health authorities are saying 'arhh sure - it's grand' ... :rolleyes:

uck51js9zml2yt

Just heard on the radio that a un worker in germany has died from Ebola. He was working in west africa

asteroids over berlin

gozunda wrote: »

+ Irish Independent - small ed pp25

'Ebola most serious health crisis in modern times' the World Health Organisation had warned

Lol - The WHO are sh/ting bricks and the Irish Health authorities are saying 'arhh sure - it's grand' ... :rolleyes:

Just to put up the official statement of that line by WHO, as you left out an important word 'acute'


The World Health Organization described it as the "the most severe, acute health emergency seen in modern times"

gozunda

asteroids over berlin wrote: »

Just to put up the official statement of that line by WHO, as you left out an important word 'acute'


The World Health Organization described it as the "the most severe, acute health emergency seen in modern times"

Link?

'acute' left out by the Indo ...

ProfessorPlum

Well 'acute' just means thats it's happening right now - there's nothing to say that it could't become "the most severe, chronic health emergency seen in modern times". Not that I'm saying it will...

SpaceTime

I'm not really sure why they're just assuming that it'll magically go away. We need to be working a lot more rapidly towards a vaccine.

Creative Juices

smash wrote: »

Go ask sky news, they reported it. But I also heard it on the radio this morning too.

I tend to avoid Sky News but the link you shared also shows "..." which makes the statement pointless. How did they represent "..." on the radio verbally i.e. what are the missing words?

FullblownRose

Creative Juices wrote: »

I tend to avoid Sky News but the link you shared also shows "..." which makes the statement pointless. How did they represent "..." on the radio verbally i.e. what are the missing words?

Could be anything..for example ''without exception'', or ''after 'x' disease or other health threat''..or it could have been filler words with little significance.

Creative Juices

FullblownRose wrote: »

Could be anything..for example ''without exception'', or ''after 'x' disease or other health threat''..or it could have been filler words with little significance.

I know that, without the full statement, I would not have printed it or stuck it on a forum. It's meaningless.

smash

Creative Juices wrote: »

I tend to avoid Sky News but the link you shared also shows "..." which makes the statement pointless. How did they represent "..." on the radio verbally i.e. what are the missing words?

As has been said above, the missing word was "acute". Still, they're treating it as a threat. UK are opening advanced screening at their airports today and are expecting at least 10 confirmed cases over the next few weeks.

I don't see what's so hard to believe about ebola being a threat.

Creative Juices

smash wrote: »

As has been said above, the missing word was "acute". Still, they're treating it as a threat. UK are opening advanced screening at their airports today and are expecting at least 10 confirmed cases over the next few weeks.

I don't see what's so hard to believe about ebola being a threat.

So the full statement is ""most severe acute health emergency in modern times". Thanks.
Strange that Sky would remove one word for 3 dots.

Who doesn't believe ebola isn't a threat?

hiFidelity

Some years ago I used to watch the FEMA detention camps conspiracy videos on Youtube.

People were speculating as to why these camps were being built across the US; Martial Law and all that. Now I am beginning to wonder.


I know, I know; CT forum ->>

Canis Lupus

Creative Juices wrote: »

Who doesn't believe ebola isn't a threat?

Depends on where you live. If I was a West African I'd be very scared. If I lived in Ireland I wouldn't care so much and here in Australia I'm equally blase about it. As long as it's on the 'radar' and our respective government take the relevant steps then I don't think there's much to worry about as a population.

You simply can't compare the modern world both in terms of resources and general education of the public to a lot of the African people. Hell the previous president of South Africa was virtually an AIDS denier and the current one has said in the past that AIDS can be prevented by showering after sex. These are people that put more faith in juju men than real doctors and if you can have leaders of state thinking such things then you can only imagine the education level of the remainder.

I'm not saying that this isn't a crisis, it is, for Africa and arguably for populous poor states like India etc but I don't think there's any particular cause for panic for us in 1st world countries. Any possible outbreak as unlikely as it is would be contained very quickly.