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Ebola virus outbreak

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    #1802
    wexie
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,480 ✭✭✭wexie


    Beano wrote: »
    But given that we dont dump dead bodies in the streets in this country i dont think we would ever face a situation where we had 3000 infected.

    We don't at the moment, what about though (have a think about this) if the dead bodies required very specialised equipment and care to be properly disposed of without causing any further infection.

    Quite how many ambulance teams with the right equipment and training do you suppose there are in Ireland that could do this? And how many of those outside of Dublin/Cork/Limerick/Galway?

    Half of the HSE goes on strike when there's a report they might have to start using cheaper toilet paper. What do you think would happen when they need to start dealing with this kinda stuff?


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    #1803
    littlemac1980
    Registered Users Posts: 1,073 ✭✭✭littlemac1980


    Health officials have interviewed the latest patient to quickly identify any contacts or potential exposures, and those people will be monitored," the health department said. "The type of monitoring depends on the nature of their interactions and the potential they were exposed to the virus."

    But the pool of contacts could be small, since Ebola can only be transmitted when an infected person shows symptoms. Less than a day passed between the onset of the worker's symptoms and isolation at the hospital

    http://edition.cnn.com/2014/10/15/health/texas-ebola-outbreak/

    It looks like - thankfully - they may have caught this case fairly quick, and given the timeframe between the onset of symptoms and the "interrogation" regarding contacts, one would hope a fairly accurate list of potential contacts can be made.

    Still - it's not clear if the person was working or semi-isolated what their routine was since the monitoring - that's not particularly helpful from a public information POV.

    Less than a day is a lot better than 6 days out and about - but it all depends on context.


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    #1804
    Beano
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,357 ✭✭✭Beano


    littlemac1980 wrote: »
    I think you've missed my point. Nevermind.

    I understood your point completely. We are facing a totally different situation in Ireland. The situation in sierra leone and other countries needs to be addressed immediately. This outbreak cannot be contained while bodies are being dumped in the streets.


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    #1805
    RobertKK
    Registered Users Posts: 33,749 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Maximus Alexander wrote: »
    Annual HIV deaths: ~1,600,000
    Annual Malaria deaths: ~627,000
    Annual Influenza deaths: 250,000 - 500,000

    Ebola deaths to date: < 5500

    It's time to crack open our skulls and feast on the goo inside!

    Two problems with those stats.

    Ebola is infecting more and more people, the spread rate is increasing, combined with the death rate for the virus increasing from 50% to 70%.
    If we get to 10,000 new infections per week by December, we could have 7,000 people a week dying from Ebola.


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    #1806
    littlemac1980
    Registered Users Posts: 1,073 ✭✭✭littlemac1980


    Beano wrote: »
    I understood your point completely. We are facing a totally different situation in Ireland. The situation in sierra leone and other countries needs to be addressed immediately. This outbreak cannot be contained while bodies are being dumped in the streets.
    :rolleyes:


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    #1807
    wildefalcon
    Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭wildefalcon


    How many trained health workers would 3,000 people infected with this plague need to be treated without causing further infection?

    Allowing for down time, weekends, sickness cover and lab work/back office? Incineration, safe funeral arrangements etc.


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    #1808
    littlemac1980
    Registered Users Posts: 1,073 ✭✭✭littlemac1980


    wildefalcon wrote: »
    How many trained health workers would 3000 people need to be treated without causing further infection?

    Allowing for down time, weekends, sickness cover and back office?

    Personally, I believe in a Country the size of Ireland, and with our limited resources, way way more than are available.


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    #1809
    Maximus Alexander
    Registered Users Posts: 13,080 ✭✭✭✭Maximus Alexander


    littlemac1980 wrote: »
    Apples and Oranges, and unnecessary repetition of a silly point made previously by many who (understandably) don't understand the uniqueness and seriousness of this cirsis.

    I suggest you take some time to read this thread.

    Rubbish. Ebola has about the same reproductive rate as HIV and a similar mode of transmission. The western world has been rife with HIV carriers for a couple of decades now, and instead of dying or becoming non-contagious in a matter of weeks, they stick around for years or even decades.

    Have you managed to avoid HIV so far?


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    #1810
    Beano
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,357 ✭✭✭Beano


    wexie wrote: »
    We don't at the moment, what about though (have a think about this) if the dead bodies required very specialised equipment and care to be properly disposed of without causing any further infection.

    Quite how many ambulance teams with the right equipment and training do you suppose there are in Ireland that could do this? And how many of those outside of Dublin/Cork/Limerick/Galway?

    Half of the HSE goes on strike when there's a report they might have to start using cheaper toilet paper. What do you think would happen when they need to start dealing with this kinda stuff?

    the dead bodies require no more specialised treatment than a live patient with ebola. they dont suddenly become more infectious when they die.


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    #1811
    wexie
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,480 ✭✭✭wexie


    Beano wrote: »
    the dead bodies require no more specialised treatment than a live patient with ebola. they dont suddenly become more infectious when they die.

    well....no they don't of course. My point was that if someone were to die at home, who's going to come collect the body?

    You can be damn sure that all the trained and equipped healthcare workers will be in hospital trying to take care of the people still alive.

    While you're probably right in saying it's not likely to happen in Ireland it's certainly not unthinkable.


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    #1812
    littlemac1980
    Registered Users Posts: 1,073 ✭✭✭littlemac1980


    Maximus Alexander wrote: »
    Rubbish. Ebola has about the same reproductive rate as HIV and a similar mode of transmission. The western world has been rife with HIV carriers for a couple of decades now, and instead of dying or becoming non-contagious in a matter of weeks, they stick around for years or even decades.

    Have you managed to avoid HIV so far?

    Yeah - you're 100% correct

    Ebola and HIV can be compared in real real simple terms, hahaha.... :rolleyes:

    I'm not gonna waste any time trying to convincing you.

    There's one or two like you on here every couple days. Just read some the thread and some articles.


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    #1813
    Beano
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,357 ✭✭✭Beano


    wexie wrote: »
    well....no they don't of course. My point was that if someone were to die at home, who's going to come collect the body?

    You can be damn sure that all the trained and equipped healthcare workers will be in hospital trying to take care of the people still alive.

    While you're probably right in saying it's not likely to happen in Ireland it's certainly not unthinkable.

    why would somebody be dying at home in ireland from ebola?


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    #1814
    Beano
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,357 ✭✭✭Beano


    littlemac1980 wrote: »
    :rolleyes:

    happy to see that reasoned debate is not a lost art.


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    #1815
    RobertKK
    Registered Users Posts: 33,749 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Maximus Alexander wrote: »
    Rubbish. Ebola has about the same reproductive rate as HIV and a similar mode of transmission. The western world has been rife with HIV carriers for a couple of decades now, and instead of dying or becoming non-contagious in a matter of weeks, they stick around for years or even decades.

    Have you managed to avoid HIV so far?

    People with HIV survive thanks to companies like Gilead Sciences who found a treatment that works for people infected with HIV.
    Then there are drugs to stop pregnant mothers infecting their unborn child.

    With Ebola there is currently no known treatment that has passed tests to be proven to work.
    Though I would guess within weeks or months we will have either/both a vaccine and a treatment for Ebola.


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    #1816
    nyarlothothep
    Registered Users Posts: 5,177 ✭✭✭nyarlothothep


    Maximus Alexander wrote: »
    Rubbish. Ebola has about the same reproductive rate as HIV and a similar mode of transmission. The western world has been rife with HIV carriers for a couple of decades now, and instead of dying or becoming non-contagious in a matter of weeks, they stick around for years or even decades.

    Have you managed to avoid HIV so far?

    Dude, ebola does not have a similar mode of transmission, unless you want to categorise it under the label fluid transmission which misses the finer details that are important! For example HIV is transmitted through sex or needles ie drug use in most cases. Ebola...well all you have to do is touch the surface of an object that may have the virus, (perhaps someone got sick etc didn't wash their hands properly) and you're already infected. In the case of HIV the transmission is almost specialised and there are treatments for it, whereas with Ebola we don't even know for sure whether Zmapp works, and there's not enough of it anyway.


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    #1817
    wexie
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,480 ✭✭✭wexie


    Beano wrote: »
    why would somebody be dying at home in ireland from ebola?

    Why not? People are found dead in their homes most weeks.

    If there were to be a major outbreak here then the hospitals, ambulance service etc. etc. would all be overloaded pretty quickly.

    There probably would only be a few hospitals properly equipped to take the patients to start with.


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    #1818
    ectoraige
    Registered Users Posts: 2,100 ✭✭✭ectoraige


    madcabbage wrote: »
    Coughing is though. I'd imagine sweat and diarrhoea are the problematic symptoms. Public toilets would be a big no no if that's the case.

    Just with regard to sweat, it's not clear how much of a problem sweat is actually. Whole live samples of the Ebola virus haven't been isolated in sweat to date, that's not to say it's not a possible vector, but it doesn't appear that sweat or saliva would have anywhere near the viral loading of blood, urine, or faeces.

    I suspect the risk of transmission through the sweat of an asymptomatic carrier isn't much higher than the risk to your health caused by the anxiety of worrying about it.


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    #1819
    Beano
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,357 ✭✭✭Beano


    wexie wrote: »
    Why not? People are found dead in their homes most weeks.

    If there were to be a major outbreak here then the hospitals, ambulance service etc. etc. would all be overloaded pretty quickly.

    There probably would only be a few hospitals properly equipped to take the patients to start with.

    so you have already assumed that there is a major outbreak then? The point i am making is that we would never get to that stage.


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    #1820
    Maximus Alexander
    Registered Users Posts: 13,080 ✭✭✭✭Maximus Alexander


    littlemac1980 wrote: »
    There's one or two like you on here every couple days. Just read some the thread and some articles.

    Only one or two people a week who aren't alarmist doomsayers? God help us.


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    #1821
    RobertKK
    Registered Users Posts: 33,749 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    On CNN, they said two vaccines worked on non human primates about 10 years ago but the trials did not move any further into human trials, but they are now. One of the vaccines tested back then was developed by the US military.


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    #1822
    littlemac1980
    Registered Users Posts: 1,073 ✭✭✭littlemac1980


    Maximus Alexander wrote: »
    Only one or two people a week who aren't alarmist doomsayers? God help us.

    zzzzzzzz.......


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    #1823
    Maximus Alexander
    Registered Users Posts: 13,080 ✭✭✭✭Maximus Alexander


    littlemac1980 wrote: »
    zzzzzzzz.......

    How can you sleep and panic at the same time?


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    #1824
    wexie
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,480 ✭✭✭wexie


    Beano wrote: »
    so you have already assumed that there is a major outbreak then? The point i am making is that we would never get to that stage.

    Let's hope so, but the point I am trying to make is that it's not unthinkable.
    I would suspect that our health services will be hopelessly underequipped to deal with even a few cases.

    We're now hearing reports of infections happening inside hospitals, you think that couldn't happen here? (and likely hospitals with far better equipment and training than most of ours)

    The CDC have promised to have ebola teams on standby to fly to reported cases in the US. Where would our ebola teams come from?

    How many healthcare workers in Ireland are there that have experience in dealing with something like this?


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    #1825
    Beano
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,357 ✭✭✭Beano


    Let's hope so, but the point I am trying to make is that it's not unthinkable.
    I would suspect that our health services will be hopelessly underequipped to deal with even a few cases.

    We're now hearing reports of infections happening inside hospitals, you think that couldn't happen here? (and likely hospitals with far better equipment and training than most of ours)
    [/QUOTE]

    why would you assume that other countries hospitals would have better equipment and training than our own?

    A nurse was infected. Why were none of her colleagues infected? Does that not point to her not following protocols correctly?

    wexie wrote: »

    The CDC have promised to have ebola teams on standby to fly to reported cases in the US. Where would our ebola teams come from?

    How many healthcare workers in Ireland are there that have experience in dealing with something like this?

    I have no idea how many. Do you?


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    #1826
    ProfessorPlum
    Registered Users Posts: 1,811 ✭✭✭ProfessorPlum


    Beano wrote: »
    why would you assume that other countries hospitals would have better equipment and training than our own?

    A nurse was infected. Why were none of her colleagues infected?(they were) Does that not point to her not following protocols correctly?






    Well it's two nurses in Texas, and one in Spain. That would point to there being some weakness in the protocols being used.
    A good protocol should not have such a high number of failures.


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    #1827
    wexie
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,480 ✭✭✭wexie


    Beano wrote: »
    why would you assume that other countries hospitals would have better equipment and training than our own?

    well....err....mostly because I've been in hospitals in other countries and I've been in hospitals here. I was chatting to a foreign (german) doctor one day who told me that some of the equipment he's seen in hospitals here they had gotten rid of at home already (sent to Africa interestingly enough.....)
    Beano wrote: »
    A nurse was infected. Why were none of her colleagues infected? Does that not point to her not following protocols correctly?

    It does indeed point to her not following protocols correctly and that's how you go from a single sick (contained) patient to an outbreak.... :rolleyes:


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    #1828
    Beano
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,357 ✭✭✭Beano


    ProfessorPlum wrote: »
    Well it's two nurses in Texas, and one in Spain. That would point to there being some weakness in the protocols being used.
    A good protocol should not have such a high number of failures.

    why just these and not the rest of their colleagues? A protocol is only as good as those that try to follow it.


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    #1829
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,420 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Maximus Alexander wrote: »
    Rubbish. Ebola has about the same reproductive rate as HIV and a similar mode of transmission. The western world has been rife with HIV carriers for a couple of decades now, and instead of dying or becoming non-contagious in a matter of weeks, they stick around for years or even decades.

    Have you managed to avoid HIV so far?
    And this is why a single ebola patient in the U.S. has managed to infect two healthworkers despite them using the best available biohazard equipment?

    Aids is a global catastrophy, If ebola was 'just' as dangerous as Aids, it would still be a massive crisis, but the method of transmission is not the same as Ebola.

    Aids victims can have physical contact with other people without infecting them because they are not actively shedding the virus.

    Ebola is a hemorrhagic illness, the internal organs liquify and late stage ebola patients suffer acute diahorrea, vomiting, bleeding from all orifices and open sores in their skin.

    Physical contact with anyone experiencing symptoms of ebola poses a risk of infection, but the greatest risk is at late stages where the viral loads are enormous and any physical contact at all with the patient can pass on the virus and even after the patient dies as the body is still highly infectious after death. Aids is bad, don't get me wrong, but ebola poses a different kind of a threat because it is more contagous but for a shorter period of time.


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    #1830
    MadYaker
    Registered Users Posts: 12,218 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    nyarlothothep wrote: »
    Dude, ebola does not have a similar mode of transmission, unless you want to categorise it under the label fluid transmission which misses the finer details that are important! For example HIV is transmitted through sex or needles ie drug use in most cases. Ebola...well all you have to do is touch the surface of an object that may have the virus, (perhaps someone got sick etc didn't wash their hands properly) and you're already infected. In the case of HIV the transmission is almost specialised and there are treatments for it, whereas with Ebola we don't even know for sure whether Zmapp works, and there's not enough of it anyway.

    Almost completely false. HIV and Ebola both survive in bodily fluids. Ebola spreads a bit easier than HIV but not much. It is destroyed by exposure to UV light (sunlight) so it doesn't really last outside the body for very long.


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    #1831
    ProfessorPlum
    Registered Users Posts: 1,811 ✭✭✭ProfessorPlum


    Beano wrote: »
    why just these and not the rest of their colleagues? A protocol is only as good as those that try to follow it.

    A good protocol should be clear and and simple to follow as possible. If there are multiple failures in the protocol, you need to go back and look at the protocol itself, training and equipment provided etc. It's the lazy approach (and the wrong and least helpful one) to immediately blame the users for failure.


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