Ebola virus outbreak

My name is URL

Woman tests negative for Ebola at Mater Hospital

http://www.thejournal.ie/african-woman-being-treated-for-ebola-in-mater-1735040-Oct2014/

Maybe next time, doom-merchants

Akrasia

They've already ruled ebola out. Just reported on the 1 o clock news

SEPT 23 1989

so close:(

Peist2007

Great news. Expect a lot of these cases to crop up as we hit flu season

Creative Juices

Peist2007 wrote: »

Great news. Expect a lot of these cases to crop up as we hit flu season

Did you hear about Nigeria? They beat it!

eigrod

I think Ebola had one look at tonight's weather forecast and said, feck this, I'm out of here.

Creative Juices

Nigeria beat ebola.
Senegal beat ebola
Congo are close to beating ebola.

That just leaves 3 countries as the battle ground; Sierra Leone, Guinea & Liberia.

Thanks to the USA and Spain exposure, the international aid efforts have increased exponentially (I know people love that word) and vaccines will be available for the next outbreak.

It's all good news folks.

Akrasia

Creative Juices wrote: »

Nigeria beat ebola.
Senegal beat ebola
Congo are close to beating ebola.

That just leaves 3 countries as the battle ground; Sierra Leone, Guinea & Liberia.

Thanks to the USA and Spain exposure, the international aid efforts have increased exponentially (I know people love that word) and vaccines will be available for the next outbreak.

It's all good news folks.

Good news indeed, but the bad news is that by December, there will be 10,000 new cases of ebola a week across the 3 affected countries and there are serious questions about how these can be treated or contained. The WHO say that the virus will continue to spread unless at least 70% of cases are treated in adequate isolation units. I don't think these countries have anywhere near the facilities required to treat 7000 new cases per week. I doubt even the U.S. would have those capabilities.

When the R0 dips below 1, then we can start to breath easier, but at the moment, the R0 is between 1.5 and 2, and this is an exponential increase with a doubling of the number of new infections every 4 weeks
10,000 new cases a week in december, 20,000 a week in January, 40,000 a week by February and it just gets worse and worse from there.

Does africa have the resources to contain this virus?

Creative Juices

Akrasia wrote: »

Good news indeed, but the bad news is that by December, there will be 10,000 new cases of ebola a week across the 3 affected countries and there are serious questions about how these can be treated or contained.

Does africa have the resources to contain this virus?

You should thank the good news

Not "there will be 10,000 etc", there are projections not predictions. I reckon those projections need to be reassessed based on the ramp up on aid etc. It will not be easy to contain/eliminate ebola in the 3 affected countries but I absolutely expect it to happen and I think Africa does have or will have the resources to beat ebola, again.

Peist2007

Creative Juices wrote: »

You should thank the good news

Not "there will be 10,000 etc", there are projections not predictions. I reckon those projections need to be reassessed based on the ramp up on aid etc. It will not be easy to contain/eliminate ebola in the 3 affected countries but I absolutely expect it to happen and I think Africa does have or will have the resources to beat ebola, again.

I think we'll listen to the experts on these issues thanks

Turtwig

Akrasia wrote: »

Does africa have the resources to contain this virus?

The three affected countries? No they're fcked. Never had the resources and didn't get the help when it was needed months ago. Now the virus is just going to run its course until there are not enough bodies left for it to keep it spreading. Hence the dire 10,000 cases per week projection.

Creative Juices

Turtwig wrote: »

The three affected countries? No they're fcked. Never had the resources and didn't get the help when it was needed months ago. Now the virus is just going to run its course until there are not enough bodies left for it to keep it spreading. Hence the dire 10,000 cases per week projection.

This is a recent update from Liberia, it seems there is progress being made;

18 October
A WHO report states Foya district may be on its way to controlling the spread of Ebola. The significant impact of controlling Ebola appears to have been achieved by "working with communities". Several measures such as avoiding physical contact while greeting one another, seeking help when sick and accepting Ebola as a disease and "...not a curse" and "...not a government plot" have played an important role. The report names a WHO representative whose efforts have been commenable in bringing about this change. The MSF Ebola clinic at Foya is planning to reduce the number of beds by 100 from the current total of 140.

youtube!

Akrasia wrote: »

Good news indeed, but the bad news is that by December, there will be 10,000 new cases of ebola a week across the 3 affected countries and there are serious questions about how these can be treated or contained. The WHO say that the virus will continue to spread unless at least 70% of cases are treated in adequate isolation units. I don't think these countries have anywhere near the facilities required to treat 7000 new cases per week. I doubt even the U.S. would have those capabilities.

When the R0 dips below 1, then we can start to breath easier, but at the moment, the R0 is between 1.5 and 2, and this is an exponential increase with a doubling of the number of new infections every 4 weeks
10,000 new cases a week in december, 20,000 a week in January, 40,000 a week by February and it just gets worse and worse from there.

Does africa have the resources to contain this virus?

So that means that by Xmas 2015 we are looking at a potential 40,960,000!!

Now considering the combined population of those 3 countries adds up to about 20 million I think that model can be discounted, it's impossible to accurately measure how the virus will spread,one thing for certain though is those countries need a lot more help.

ceadaoin.

Creative Juices wrote: »

Nigeria beat ebola.
Senegal beat ebola
Congo are close to beating ebola.

That just leaves 3 countries as the battle ground; Sierra Leone, Guinea & Liberia.

Thanks to the USA and Spain exposure, the international aid efforts have increased exponentially (I know people love that word) and vaccines will be available for the next outbreak.

It's all good news folks.

Do you have a link about the aid increasing? All I've seen are statements by the UN and WHO asking for more aid as what they have currently is woefully inadequate.

For example this from just 3 days ago.

Ban Ki-moon has launched another urgent appeal for funds to help fight Ebola after a United Nations drive for donations fell short of its target.

The UN chief said a $1bn trust fund he launched in September has received just $100,000 (£62,000) so far.

He joins a growing chorus of world leaders criticising the global effort to tackle the Ebola outbreak.

Creative Juices

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Do you have a link about the aid increasing? All I've seen are statements by the UN and WHO asking for more aid as what they have currently is woefully inadequate.

For example this from just 3 days ago.

Google is your friend ("ebola aid efforts"). I cannot post links yet.

The Cubans are really coming up trumps. "Cuba has sent 165 doctors to Sierra Leone and plans to send 296 more to Liberia and Guinea, the largest commitment of medical personnel so far."

7 mins ago; The Ontario government announced on Monday it is donating $3-million to two Canadian organizations helping to fight the Ebola outbreak in West Africa.

17th Oct: British Army medics are due to arrive in Sierra Leone today to help in the fight against Ebola, as global leaders promise to step up the international community's efforts to halt the spread of the killer disease. A team of 91, including nurses, doctors and infectious disease consultants, will join 40 soldiers already in the west African country to work at a UK-supported treatment centre

19-Oct: The first of 17 U.S.-built Ebola treatment centers in West Africa will open in a few weeks, the top commander of U.S. troops in the region told USA TODAY on Sunday. Maj. Gen. Darryl Williams also said new mobile laboratories have cut the time it takes to process blood samples of suspected Ebola victims to two or three hours from three days.

16th Oct (Prevention): "The World Health Organisation is increasing its efforts to help 15 African countries defend themselves against the spread of the Ebola virus."

Creative Juices

Peist2007 wrote: »

I think we'll listen to the experts on these issues thanks

Yeah fair enough but I don't think realweirdo or Wakeup finish lessons until 4pm.

ceadaoin.

Creative Juices wrote: »

Google is your friend ("ebola aid efforts"). I cannot post links yet.

The Cubans are really coming up trumps. "Cuba has sent 165 doctors to Sierra Leone and plans to send 296 more to Liberia and Guinea, the largest commitment of medical personnel so far."

7 mins ago; The Ontario government announced on Monday it is donating $3-million to two Canadian organizations helping to fight the Ebola outbreak in West Africa.

17th Oct: British Army medics are due to arrive in Sierra Leone today to help in the fight against Ebola, as global leaders promise to step up the international community's efforts to halt the spread of the killer disease. A team of 91, including nurses, doctors and infectious disease consultants, will join 40 soldiers already in the west African country to work at a UK-supported treatment centre

19-Oct: The first of 17 U.S.-built Ebola treatment centers in West Africa will open in a few weeks, the top commander of U.S. troops in the region told USA TODAY on Sunday. Maj. Gen. Darryl Williams also said new mobile laboratories have cut the time it takes to process blood samples of suspected Ebola victims to two or three hours from three days.

16th Oct (Prevention): "The World Health Organisation is increasing its efforts to help 15 African countries defend themselves against the spread of the Ebola virus."

None of that, except the Canadian one, is new. The US military plan was announced months ago. The aid effort certainly isn't increasing exponentially along with the disease. We seem to be seeing lots of 'promises', but not much actual effort. It's still nowhere near enough.

Fair play to Cuba though, they really are punching above their weight when it comes to helping with the ebola crisis in Africa. If only some EU countries would do the same.

Peist2007

Creative Juices wrote: »

Yeah fair enough but I don't think realweirdo or Wakeup finish lessons until 4pm.

I was referring to you choosing to ignore experts projections and stating your preference for your own instead. In fairness to the two posters you have mentioned i am yet to see them do anything like that. I remember another poster who was just like you and stopped posting on this thread a couple of days before you started. Interesting

Creative Juices

Peist2007 wrote: »

I was referring to you choosing to ignore experts projections and stating your preference for your own instead. In fairness to the two posters you have mentioned i am yet to see them do anything like that. I remember another poster who was just like you and stopped posting on this thread a couple of days before you started. Interesting

I don't have any projections, I was just saying we cannot speak of projections as fact until we see the actuals. And projections do change in response to input variables.

Yes, I am interesting

Peist2007

Creative Juices wrote: »

I don't have any projections, I was just saying we cannot speak of projections as fact until we see the actuals. And projections do change in response to input variables.

Yes, I am interesting

And what are your qualifications? If experts are using projections then i think that is the way to go. I think anyone would know that projections are not facts.

Creative Juices

Peist2007 wrote: »

And what are your qualifications? If experts are using projections then i think that is the way to go. I think anyone would know that projections are not facts.

Buddy, you're still not getting it. I was only saying that this line "by December, there will be 10,000 new cases of ebola a week across the 3 affected countries" should be written as a projection not a fact e.g. "by December, it is projected by WHO that there will be 10,000 new cases of ebola a week across the 3 affected countries"

Peist2007

Creative Juices wrote: »

Buddy, you're still not getting it. I was only saying that this line "by December, there will be 10,000 new cases of ebola a week across the 3 affected countries" should be written as a projection not a fact e.g. "by December, it is projected by WHO that there will be 10,000 new cases of ebola a week across the 3 affected countries"

Buddy, i think that what you are reading was a projection. I dont think the WHO are making factual statements about events yet to take place in the future.

Here's a tip: anything said about December 2014 in October 2014 can only ever be a projection, not a fact. Ok?

Creative Juices

Peist2007 wrote: »

Buddy, i think that what you are reading was a projection. I dont think the WHO are making factual statements about events yet to take place in the future.

ok

Creative Juices

Peist2007, are you delighted Nigeria beat ebola?

Creative Juices

ceadaoin. wrote: »

None of that, except the Canadian one, is new. The US military plan was announced months ago. The aid effort certainly isn't increasing exponentially along with the disease. We seem to be seeing lots of 'promises', but not much actual effort. It's still nowhere near enough.

Fair play to Cuba though, they really are punching above their weight when it comes to helping with the ebola crisis in Africa. If only some EU countries would do the same.

Cuba are fantastic alright. I have heard great things about their healthcare system and approach.
And you can always count on Canada.

My name is URL

Creative Juices wrote: »

Cuba are fantastic alright. I have heard great things about their healthcare system and approach.
And you can always count on Canada.

Cuba provides more medical personnel to the developing world than all the G8 countries combined

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_medical_internationalism

That's pretty stunning really.

gozunda

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Do you have a link about the aid increasing? All I've seen are statements by the UN and WHO asking for more aid as what they have currently is woefully inadequate ...

Ban Ki-moon was doing the usual sounding off imo.

The problems in the current three affected counties will not be fixed by simply dumping financial aid on the current situation. As already outlined many countries and international organisation are providing significant aid and infrastructure in the management of the Ebola outbreak

The three countries currently afflicted are all exceedingly poor and plagued by various levels of instability and dysfunction. Guinea, the only one to have avoided civil war following independence, has been plagued by military coups and civil strife. In Sierra Leone many public institutions had only just started to be rebuilt after the civil war that finished over a decade ago.

The wounds of Liberia’s civil war are fresher and deeper. Foreign peacekeepers maintain public security; many institutions barely exist. At the start of the crisis the countries had only a few hundred doctors between them. Many of those doctors, including Sheik Umar Khan, who led Sierra Leone’s response, have since died of the disease. In an echo of the way that, inside the body, it targets the immune system first, in the community Ebola hits health-care workers hardest.

Providing the infrastructure for a better response is thus a matter for outsiders. Some help has come from governments, some from non-governmental organisations such as Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), an NGO which has provided about two-thirds of the isolation beds used to treat Ebola patients so far. Expansion moves apace.

Beneath the looming Peninsula Mountains to the south of Sierra Leone’s capital, Freetown, the sleepy village of Kerry Town is the scene of frantic activity, as more than 200 construction workers sweat through the night to complete the first of six Ebola clinics to be set up in the country by the British army (some snatch a nap on the table in the morgue).

Solar panels are being installed, a borehole drilled for water, a concrete access road laid to link up with the coastal highway. The centre will hold 90 beds, with an additional 12 set aside in a ward for the health workers. A military spokesman says the site should be completed by the end of the month.

The 70-bed Ebola treatment unit in Bong County, Liberia, was built by Save the Children, an NGO; it took about four weeks to build. Chris Skopec of International Medical Corps, the NGO that runs it, describes it as “something in between a tent and a concrete structure”. But it has all the necessary features: quarantine rooms, decontamination areas and large toilet spaces (patients suffering from vomiting and diarrhoea may pass out). It is close enough to villages for people to reach, not so close for them to protest at its presence.

These efforts are impressive. Liberia’s capacity to treat Ebola victims has nearly doubled in the past two weeks, and America has promised to build 17 100-bed units in the coming months. However, thanks again to the power of exponential growth, if the number of beds can be doubled only at more or less the same rate that the virus doubles the number of cases, the disease’s head start will grow ever more overwhelming. For the caseloads predicted for late November and December, the 70% treatment level seen as needed to bring things under control corresponds to tens of thousands of beds.

Various countries have promised substantial aid, but not yet on that scale. America has pledged $350m and set aside another $1 billion to fund the activities of its soldiers in the area. Britain has committed $200m. The World Bank has set up a $400m financing scheme; the first $105m reached the governments of the affected countries in just nine days. The UN, of which the WHO is part, has taken in about a third of the $1 billion it says it needs to fund its own efforts in the region; all told, though, Ban Ki-Moon, the UN secretary-general, sees a need for much more than that—“a 20-fold surge” in assistance.

Money is of little use without staff. China has sent some 170 medical workers to the affected countries. Cuba, long focused on medical work overseas, has sent a similar number, and has plans for 300 more.

....

....

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-ebola-crisis-much-worse-to-come-2014-10

gozunda

Akrasia wrote: »

They don't know for certain, but it's highly likely that you'll be immune to this strain of the virus as your body will have developed the antibodies required to fight if off before an infection takes hold.

It's not guaranteed due to the fact that some virus mutations can affect the ability of the immune system to detect and attack an infection and some viruses can persist in the body and occasionally flare up (eg the herpes virus) but the evidence from previous ebola outbreaks is that once someone has survived an ebola infection, the virus is eradicated from the person's body and will not flare-up again. (thank feck)

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

I get that it hasn't been scientifically proven, but from a logical standpoint I'd assume you're immune to the strain for a while at least. I mean I wouldn't bet my life on it, but they claim, for example, that the virus is still present in semen for up to 3 weeks after recovery yet it doesn't reinfect the host.

....

Did ye read the link I posted ?

The link details Will Pooley medical team have stated that -

Although it is widely assumed that a person cannot contract Ebola twice, this is not scientifically proven and Pooley has been warned that he still faces a risk. “They have told me I very likely have immunity, at least for the near future, to this strain of Ebola. I have also been told it’s a possibility that I don’t, so I will just have to act as if I don’t ,” he told the Guardian.

It would be nice to think we can't get viral infections twice - I personally had chicken pox twice in my lifetime however as Ebola is largely an unknown no one can make this presumption at this stage

The issue is compounded by the fact that more than one strain of Ebola has been identified in the current outbreak

Peist2007

Creative Juices wrote: »

Peist2007, are you delighted Nigeria beat ebola?

I didnt know they were playing. Was that on over the weekend?

youtube!

Peist2007 wrote: »

I didnt know they were playing. Was that on over the weekend?

:D:D You missed a great match! Nigeria 2 Ebola 1