CSO - Dublin House prices fall in Feb 2014, 2nd month in a row

Idbatterim

firstly the sample size as has been mentioned is tiny and given the paltry amount of sales, a few big or small ones can skew the numbers easily enough. I know of a guy looking to buy for the past few years, cash buyer, he should have jumped years ago, he was out looking at loads of houses towards the end of the year, now he doesnt feel the urgency anymore, whatever good value was out there, has well and truly disappeared, so where is the rush, he might just decide at these prices, that renting is the better option...

I mean, I'll be happy if prices continue to fall in one way, but if you offered me a grand on whether houses prices in dublin would be higher or lower than at present, this time next year, it would be going on higher, no doubt about it...

lima

It's funny people saying that month-on-month doesn't matter or that there are not many transactions etc. - they were raving about monthly rises when they were happening, why are they not taking the data into account now that prices are falling in Dublin?

lima

Belfunk wrote: »

The market in Dublin 3,5 and 9 is going crazy.

Last Friday the asking on this was already at 200k.

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/13-hawthorn-terrace-east-wall-dublin-3/2759857

This went on the market last week @ 300k, quickly changed to 350k Monday morning and today it has an offer of 400k 360k

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-brookwood-road-artane-dublin-5/2775915

Here seriously though, don't let EA's random and arbitrary asking price rises and falls into account. They are just playing the market and know exactly what they are doing. I'm sure they have a complex plan for example they may put up a property at 250k for a few weeks, get a few viewings and already know quite well they will raise the asking up to 300k, stoking the fire from pent up demand. They are clever and know people get emo about property in Ireland.

Sand Wedge

lima wrote: »

It's funny people saying that month-on-month doesn't matter or that there are not many transactions etc. - they were raving about monthly rises when they were happening, why are they not taking the data into account now that prices are falling in Dublin?

If this month-on-month decrease happens later in year it will matter. But when the month-on month decrease at the start of the year is what happens normally then that is why people are not taking the price falls into account.

I for one hope that prices will level off this year and only increase in line with inflation.

handlemaster

lima wrote: »

Here seriously though, don't let EA's random and arbitrary asking price rises and falls into account. They are just playing the market and know exactly what they are doing. I'm sure they have a complex plan for example they may put up a property at 250k for a few weeks, get a few viewings and already know quite well they will raise the asking up to 300k, stoking the fire from pent up demand. They are clever and know people get emo about property in Ireland.

Most shocking statement yet EA are clever .. next they will be able to control the market !!

jon1981

lima wrote: »

Here seriously though, don't let EA's random and arbitrary asking price rises and falls into account. They are just playing the market and know exactly what they are doing. I'm sure they have a complex plan for example they may put up a property at 250k for a few weeks, get a few viewings and already know quite well they will raise the asking up to 300k, stoking the fire from pent up demand. They are clever and know people get emo about property in Ireland.

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-brookwood-road-artane-dublin-5/2775915

this is 380k now

handlemaster

jon1981 wrote: »

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-brookwood-road-artane-dublin-5/2775915

this is 380k now

Would think that's high for that house

jon1981

handlemaster wrote: »

Would think that's high for that house

given the work needed in side, i'd agree. 2 houses sold on that road 40-50k shy of that, one needs serious work, the other walk in condition. I guess nice area, good transport options, family house...etc. just what ppl are looking for right now.

bombs away

it's a bloody rip off for that house to be honest, not even that decent an area. Anyone who pays that needs their head examined

jon1981

house literally around the corner went for 400-500k. I know this will make ppls heads spin but in the "good times" you were looking at over 500k for houses on that road. I know that area pretty well as I was looking all around there during our house hunt last year.

jon1981

this is becoming a joke

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-brookwood-road-artane-dublin-5/2775915?utm_source=MyHomeie&utm_medium=Email&utm_content=PropertyAlerts&utm_campaign=ResidentialForSalePropertyAlert

400k now, that's 2 price rises in a day

stevedublin

jon1981 wrote: »

this is becoming a joke

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-brookwood-road-artane-dublin-5/2775915?utm_source=MyHomeie&utm_medium=Email&utm_content=PropertyAlerts&utm_campaign=ResidentialForSalePropertyAlert

400k now, that's 2 price rises in a day

buy now before it goes to 420k

jay0109

jon1981 wrote: »

this is becoming a joke

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-brookwood-road-artane-dublin-5/2775915?utm_source=MyHomeie&utm_medium=Email&utm_content=PropertyAlerts&utm_campaign=ResidentialForSalePropertyAlert

400k now, that's 2 price rises in a day

This must be what Enda Kenny referred to recently!
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/taoiseach-says-pent-up-demand-causing-sharp-property-price-rises-1.1729997

who_ru

jon1981 wrote: »

this is becoming a joke

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-brookwood-road-artane-dublin-5/2775915?utm_source=MyHomeie&utm_medium=Email&utm_content=PropertyAlerts&utm_campaign=ResidentialForSalePropertyAlert

400k now, that's 2 price rises in a day

Nobody has to pay those prices, why they are is anyone's guess. The Dublin housing market is a rigged game, more so than ever now. Little or no supply, vendors ripping it up with asking prices, EAs getting 10,20,30 couples to a viewing and a bidding war breaks out. The 'must buy now' mentality is very strong still, panic is still very much part of the decision making process, media spin on asking prices, management of nationalised banks on the one hand writing off debt for some mortgage holders, while at the same time putting 5% + interest rates on new mortgage holders. It's a trap I'd prefer to avoid.

harpsman

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/market-bounces-back-as-mortgage-approvals-up-33pc-30133841.html

handlemaster

harpsman wrote: »

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/market-bounces-back-as-mortgage-approvals-up-33pc-30133841.html

I'm all for been positive but the indo would say anything to give a positive spin on property in Ireland they are long pass any kind of credibility.

handlemaster

harpsman wrote: »

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/market-bounces-back-as-mortgage-approvals-up-33pc-30133841.html

I'm all for been positive but the indo would say anything to give a positive spin on property in Ireland they are long pass any kind of credibility.

jon1981

http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/03/2832014-irish-mortgages-approvals.html

Number of new mortgages approved is running well below the trend, so improvement in February is driven by something other than market growth. Instead, it is driven (as argued below) by extraordinary volatility in approvals around the end of 2012 - beginning of 2013, which was down to expiration of tax breaks at the end of 2012.
Average mortgage approved is on-trend and the trend is down not up. So things are getting worse, not better.

I notice how the Indo won't allow comments under that article...

who_ru

Charlie Weston is the Paul Reynolds of financial reporting, totally biased and totally unbelievable.

Jaybor

I get the feeling that all of the people coming out with the sarcastic little slogans (eg "Quick buy now before they go up again", "Have we learned nothing") that slate the people buying or who have bought houses, may actually end up being the ones who are sorry in the end.

Do a quick calculation of how much you need to live on when you retire if you are renting and if you own your house by then.

Then go to pensionsboard.ie and calculate how much more its going to cost you to make up the shortfall in extra pension payments. Scary.

DoesNotCompute

Roger_007 wrote: »

The housing market in Dublin is in danger of grinding to a halt completely because of lack of supply both for sale and for rent.

One could argue that this lack of supply is driving house prices in Dublin up.

EDIT: Also, people are throwing around generalised statements such as "house prices in Dublin are increasing / decreasing", but they don't specify what type of property. Are we talking about houses or apartments?

And these figures only monitor mortgage drawdown data. They don't take into account the fact that around 50% of the market is cash-in-hand.

who_ru

Jaybor wrote: »

I get the feeling that all of the people coming out with the sarcastic little slogans (eg "Quick buy now before they go up again", "Have we learned nothing") that slate the people buying or who have bought houses, may actually end up being the ones who are sorry in the end.

Do a quick calculation of how much you need to live on when you retire if you are renting and if you own your house by then.

Then go to pensionsboard.ie and calculate how much more its going to cost you to make up the shortfall in extra pension payments. Scary.

You do realise that approx 50% of workers in Ireland have little or no pension provision at all. At what if you were to divert large chunks of your salary into a pension instead of paying a mortgage at interest? Also getting tax relief of up to 40% on pension payments. Not everyone is paying rent of €1500 p.m. either.

Jaybor

who_ru wrote: »

You do realise that approx 50% of workers in Ireland have little or no pension provision at all. At what if you were to divert large chunks of your salary into a pension instead of paying a mortgage at interest? Also getting tax relief of up to 40% on pension payments. Not everyone is paying rent of €1500 p.m. either.

A man can only help himself. He can help the who country prepare for their retirement. So just do the sums for yourself and where you would like to be living in your old age. Most people have no idea until they actually go and do the sums. Then they get a huge shock. Too late getting that shock when you are in your 50s. Maybe even too late in your 40s.
Have you any idea at all how much you'll have to divert into your pension (even at 41% tax relief) to make up that shortfall between renting and owning in your retirement? As well as paying rent until then too. Wait til you see what it costs you. Much, much more than a mortgage.

Yes some people will be only able to afford to pay rent on a bedsit in their retirement. And some will be happy in just a bedsit.
But I think most people would prefer to live somewhere other than a bedsit. Somewhere with room for hobbies and having children and grandchildren stay over.

And yes everyone should really have a pension, over and above the state pension, but they dont - for whatever reason. Well they'll be the ones living in bedsits.

gaius c

handlemaster wrote: »

Its funny reading the posters who have the. dark cloud over their heads no matter what the weather. Negative the whole time and will never buy as there is no such thing as a perfect time to buy.

Tempting and all that it is to make broad generalisations, why don't you try rebutting them with facts & figures, fundamentals even?

Belfunk wrote: »

The market in Dublin 3,5 and 9 is going crazy.

Last Friday the asking on this was already at 200k.

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/13-hawthorn-terrace-east-wall-dublin-3/2759857

This went on the market last week @ 300k, quickly changed to 350k Monday morning and today it has an offer of 400k 360k

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-brookwood-road-artane-dublin-5/2775915

Bear in mind that the vendor might not actually want to sell or have so many strings attached that the house is effectively not for sale despite being advertised as such.

Sentiments in this thread are an excellent example.

lima

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/financial-services/lending-to-irish-households-fell-to-2005-levels-in-february-1.1744692

Mortgage Lending down again.

Looks like less mortgage lending is assisting the price drops we are seeing in Dublin all year so far.

It seems the banks are taking turns promoting the fact that they are lending, but it doesn't seem to be working.

Are the cash buyers drying up in Dublin and moving on elsewhere in Ireland? If so we should see continued declines in the Dublin property market this year.

who_ru

lima wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/financial-services/lending-to-irish-households-fell-to-2005-levels-in-february-1.1744692

Mortgage Lending down again.

Looks like less mortgage lending is assisting the price drops we are seeing in Dublin all year so far.

It seems the banks are taking turns promoting the fact that they are lending, but it doesn't seem to be working.

Are the cash buyers drying up in Dublin and moving on elsewhere in Ireland? If so we should see continued declines in the Dublin property market this year.

Banks slashing lending ahead of new stress tests later this year by the ECB. Mario Draghi in a letter to Michael McGrath of FF, indicated that a lot of issues remain in Irish banks and that the outcome of the stress tests may be further recapitalisation.

Cuddlesworth

lima wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/financial-services/lending-to-irish-households-fell-to-2005-levels-in-february-1.1744692

Mortgage Lending down again.

Looks like less mortgage lending is assisting the price drops we are seeing in Dublin all year so far.

It seems the banks are taking turns promoting the fact that they are lending, but it doesn't seem to be working.

Are the cash buyers drying up in Dublin and moving on elsewhere in Ireland? If so we should see continued declines in the Dublin property market this year.

Realistically for the vast majority of earners, Dublin does not appear to be a great market for a mortgage. Cash rules at the moment.

OMD

lima wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/financial-services/lending-to-irish-households-fell-to-2005-levels-in-february-1.1744692

Mortgage Lending down again.

Looks like less mortgage lending is assisting the price drops we are seeing in Dublin all year so far.

It seems the banks are taking turns promoting the fact that they are lending, but it doesn't seem to be working.

Are the cash buyers drying up in Dublin and moving on elsewhere in Ireland? If so we should see continued declines in the Dublin property market this year.

I think you have misinterpreted the figures. The article is essentially saying people are paying off more of their mortgage and other loans rather than saving.
I have to add, anyone who thinks prices are falling in Dublin is very misinformed.

who_ru

OMD wrote: »

I think you have misinterpreted the figures. The article is essentially saying people are paying off more of their mortgage and other loans rather than saving.
I have to add, anyone who thinks prices are falling in Dublin is very misinformed.

I expect that overall mortgage lending in 2014 will be less than 2013 as a result of the stress tests, and remember 2013 was a year in which mortgage lending was lower than 2012. See the pattern here? According to those in the property business cash buyers account for more than 50% of all sales, I'd expect that percentage to increase this year.

MouseTail

who_ru wrote: »

I expect that overall mortgage lending in 2014 will be less than 2013 as a result of the stress tests, and remember 2013 was a year in which mortgage lending was lower than 2012. See the pattern here.

There is no pattern, as its just your expectation.