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CSO - Dublin House prices fall in Feb 2014, 2nd month in a row

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    #62
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,285 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Wasn't there a figure of 3.4 billion for 2014 mortgage loans circulated somewhere recently? Does anyone know where this was- I'd like to read it again.


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    #63
    who_ru
    Registered Users Posts: 2,033 ✭✭✭who_ru


    MouseTail wrote: »
    There is no pattern, as its just your expectation.

    Lending is already down at this stage of the year, not just mortgages but to SMEs as well. did you read the article in the times? It's a fact not fiction. The stress tests are also fact, and Irish banks will not increase the size of their loan books ahead that.


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    #64
    who_ru
    Registered Users Posts: 2,033 ✭✭✭who_ru


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    Wasn't there a figure of 3.4 billion for 2014 mortgage loans circulated somewhere recently? Does anyone know where this was- I'd like to read it again.

    Here maybe?
    http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/financial-services/mortgage-lending-down-last-year-1.1702778


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    #65
    lima
    Registered Users Posts: 1,239 ✭✭✭lima


    OMD wrote: »
    I think you have misinterpreted the figures. The article is essentially saying people are paying off more of their mortgage and other loans rather than saving.
    I have to add, anyone who thinks prices are falling in Dublin is very misinformed.


    I'm pretty sure it says that demand for mortgages continue to decline.

    I am informed about prices falling in Dublin from the CSO figures. Can you inform me about more reliable data?


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    #66
    MouseTail
    Registered Users Posts: 1,663 ✭✭✭MouseTail


    lima wrote: »
    I'm pretty sure it says that demand for mortgages continue to decline.

    I am informed about prices falling in Dublin from the CSO figures. Can you inform me about more reliable data?

    The Property Price Register is more reliable data as it includes all sales.


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    #67
    maryishere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,549 ✭✭✭maryishere


    Property is still over-valued in Dublin compared to the rest of the country. You could buy a fine house for 120k in some parts of the country which would cost 4 or 5 times that in Dublin. Companies are realising that now. They can give employees a higher standard of living and better quality of life if they locate in areas where housing does not cost an arm an a leg. Expect Dublin prices to fall further as banks have a lot of unresolved debt.


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    #68
    OMD
    Registered Users Posts: 2,458 ✭✭✭OMD


    lima wrote: »
    I'm pretty sure it says that demand for mortgages continue to decline.
    We'll it doesn't
    lima wrote: »
    I am informed about prices falling in Dublin from the CSO figures. Can you inform me about more reliable data?

    You are using the cso figures comparing month to month which it was never meant to do. You need to compare year on year.
    You also need to look at new mortgages http://www.ibf.ie/gns/media-centre/news/14-03-27/Year-on-Year_Increase_in_New_Mortgage_Approvals_Continues.aspx which again show a year on year increase.
    You could also look at reports such as the daft report https://c1.dmstatic.com/536/report/Daft-House-Price-Report-Q1-2014.pdf which again shows a year on year increase in prices.
    Cherry picking monthly figures is useless especially when you pick the months with the lowest sales. Look at 2013 figures. Prices dropped in Jan, Feb and March yet overall prices rose in 2013 by 15%. http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2014/


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    #69
    moxin
    Registered Users Posts: 1,203 ✭✭✭moxin


    MouseTail wrote: »
    The Property Price Register is more reliable data as it includes all sales.

    Do you have an analysis of the PPR data?


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    #70
    MouseTail
    Registered Users Posts: 1,663 ✭✭✭MouseTail


    moxin wrote: »
    Do you have an analysis of the PPR data?

    you wont get an accurate view on q1 yet from the register. Posters on the pin are very good at analysing the data when it becomes available.


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    #71
    jay0109
    Registered Users Posts: 2,670 ✭✭✭jay0109


    never mind the CSO, here's the real reports

    http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/dublin-property-prices-now-rising-by-5-000-a-month-survey-finds-1.1745750
    Dublin house prices are now rising by €5,000 a month, according to real estate agent Douglas Newman Good (DNG).

    http://www.daft.ie/report/?utm_source=daft.ie&utm_medium=strap_line&utm_campaign=strap_102_
    This latest Daft.ie House Price Report shows that annual inflation in Dublin list prices rose to 15% in early 2014, compared to a rise of just 0.5% 12 months previously. The rate of inflation is also accelerating - the average list price in the capital rose by 5.7% in the first three months of 2014, equivalent to the entire increase between July and December last year.

    http://media.myhome.ie/content/barometer/MyHomeBarometerQ12014.pdf
    The national trend contrasts with the trend in Dublin which continues to show asking price growth. The average mix-adjusted asking price now stands at €244,480, which represents an increase of 1.3% in the quarter


    Can you smell it.....thats a boom, that is. We're roaring back baby!


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    #72
    lima
    Registered Users Posts: 1,239 ✭✭✭lima


    jay0109 wrote: »
    never mind the CSO, here's the real reports

    http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/dublin-property-prices-now-rising-by-5-000-a-month-survey-finds-1.1745750


    http://www.daft.ie/report/?utm_source=daft.ie&utm_medium=strap_line&utm_campaign=strap_102_


    http://media.myhome.ie/content/barometer/MyHomeBarometerQ12014.pdf

    Can you smell it.....thats a boom, that is. We're roaring back baby!

    Lol, and people thought that vested interests were putting spin on the situation


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    #73
    Jaybor
    Registered Users Posts: 124 ✭✭Jaybor


    Prices might bounce up and down a little for a while yet.
    I dont think they will be going down by any significant amount anytime soon.
    They are more likely to go up than down over the next few years.

    But if anyone really does want to buy, but wants to wait it out to see what happens, I hope they realize that they are betting.

    If the price of the house they want goes up by €20000 then they are going to be paying €40000 more over the life of the mortgage. And may not even get the mortgage.

    If they go down by €20000 they will be paying less over the life of the mortgage and will most likely find it easier to get the mortgage.

    Its a tough call if you are on the borderline of affordability right now.


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    #74
    lima
    Registered Users Posts: 1,239 ✭✭✭lima


    Jaybor wrote: »
    Prices might bounce up and down a little for a while yet.
    I dont think they will be going down by any significant amount anytime soon.
    They are more likely to go up than down over the next few years.

    But if anyone really does want to buy, but wants to wait it out to see what happens, I hope they realize that they are betting.

    If the price of the house they want goes up by €20000 then they are going to be paying €40000 more over the life of the mortgage. And may not even get the mortgage.

    If they go down by €20000 they will be paying less over the life of the mortgage and will most likely find it easier to get the mortgage.

    Its a tough call if you are on the borderline of affordability right now.


    Unfortunately the stock issue is more concerning. I have been able to afford since sept 2012 but I have held off since there is nothing available that I would like to own. I could panic buy now and get something that may go up in value but my quality of life would go down compared to the property I am currently renting. Since I am saving over 1k a month and I go halves with my OH on the e1100pcm rent it really doesn't bother me that something I could have bought is worth 10-20k more now. I'd have spent that time living in a dusty 500sqft shoebox in the suburbs compared to a light and airy D6 apartment.

    I'm sure some people have 'missed the boat' but other people are happy to stand by and wait for more stock to arrive before making a huge purchase like this. It really is all about Quality of Life.


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    #75
    who_ru
    Registered Users Posts: 2,033 ✭✭✭who_ru


    With supply almost dead, in the form of new builds, no repossessions despite vast numbers in arrears...
    http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1027362.shtml
    Executor sales accounting for almost most homes on the market, especially in Dublin, then in that context I think prices will continue to increase, but there is very little new mortgage approval going on, so the market is more dependent than ever on cash buyers in order to prevent flatlining completely.

    Many would probably like to buy now if the could, but can't secure credit. Ironically it was reported yesterday that the ECB is worried about deflation setting in across the euro zone, and was contemplating cutting the ECB rate from .25% to perhaps 0%. Unprecedented stuff.


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    #76
    Glenbhoy
    Registered Users Posts: 1,853 ✭✭✭Glenbhoy


    MouseTail wrote: »
    The Property Price Register is more reliable data as it includes all sales.

    It is, but it doesn't give any info on the type of property, it's only useful if you know the structure and make-up of a property. The CSO figures are based on a weighted average of different types of properties, so technically (supposedly) it allows comparison from month to month.

    It really shouldn't be that big a leap though for the CSO data to start incorporating actual sales figures as used to compile the PPR.


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    #77
    Glenbhoy
    Registered Users Posts: 1,853 ✭✭✭Glenbhoy


    Jaybor wrote: »
    If the price of the house they want goes up by €20000 then they are going to be paying €40000 more over the life of the mortgage. And may not even get the mortgage.

    And if they don't get the mortgage, who will? If nobody who is interested qualifies for the mortgage which will buy the house at the vendor's desired price what happens?

    A knight in shining armour with a pot of cash under his arm? Indeed, for a trophy home in Ailesbury road that might be the case, but for a 3 bed semi in Donabate, hmm......


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    #78
    who_ru
    Registered Users Posts: 2,033 ✭✭✭who_ru


    Glenbhoy wrote: »
    And if they don't get the mortgage, who will? If nobody who is interested qualifies for the mortgage which will buy the house at the vendor's desired price what happens?

    A knight in shining armour with a pot of cash under his arm? Indeed, for a trophy home in Ailesbury road that might be the case, but for a 3 bed semi in Donabate, hmm......

    'Buy now or you're ****ed' mentality is alive and well it seems with some posts in this thread.


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    #79
    Jaybor
    Registered Users Posts: 124 ✭✭Jaybor


    Glenbhoy wrote: »
    And if they don't get the mortgage, who will? If nobody who is interested qualifies for the mortgage which will buy the house at the vendor's desired price what happens?

    A knight in shining armour with a pot of cash under his arm? Indeed, for a trophy home in Ailesbury road that might be the case, but for a 3 bed semi in Donabate, hmm......

    It would seem that at the moment there is a buyer for most houses, hence the price rises.
    Thats not going to change any time soon, but you never know what will happen in another few years.

    If you are sure that prices are going to fall or that the property that you want to buy is going to become available and affordable then, If you can wait it out then I would do so.

    If it doesnt work out then no harm done. Nothing wrong with continuing to rent if that suits you better than a mortgage noose (if thats what you feel it is) around your neck.

    I wouldnt take any notice of reports stating asking prices either. Asking prices mean nothing at the end of the day.


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    #80
    Cuddlesworth
    Registered Users Posts: 13,995 ✭✭✭✭Cuddlesworth


    who_ru wrote: »
    'Buy now or you're ****ed' mentality is alive and well it seems with some posts in this thread.

    Never left, just the outcome changed.


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    #81
    gaius c
    Registered Users Posts: 3,528 ✭✭✭gaius c


    OMD wrote: »
    We'll it doesn't


    You are using the cso figures comparing month to month which it was never meant to do. You need to compare year on year.
    You also need to look at new mortgages http://www.ibf.ie/gns/media-centre/news/14-03-27/Year-on-Year_Increase_in_New_Mortgage_Approvals_Continues.aspx which again show a year on year increase.
    You could also look at reports such as the daft report https://c1.dmstatic.com/536/report/Daft-House-Price-Report-Q1-2014.pdf which again shows a year on year increase in prices.
    Cherry picking monthly figures is useless especially when you pick the months with the lowest sales. Look at 2013 figures. Prices dropped in Jan, Feb and March yet overall prices rose in 2013 by 15%. http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2014/

    You do realise that the index is reset every year?


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    #82
    lima
    Registered Users Posts: 1,239 ✭✭✭lima


    Lolz 5k a month haha

    http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/property-prices-in-capital-climb-5000-a-month-30146793.html

    http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/property-recovery-spreading-nationwide-at-last-30138465.html

    I've seen many decreases on myhome, plus CSO says that prices FELL all year so far.

    Where are these vested-interest crazies getting the balls to self-promote these lies??


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    #83
    MysticalRain
    Registered Users Posts: 1,428 ✭✭✭MysticalRain


    The Irish media have a lot to answer for.


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    #84
    OMD
    Registered Users Posts: 2,458 ✭✭✭OMD


    gaius c wrote: »
    You do realise that the index is reset every year?

    How does that effect what I said?


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    #85
    Merli
    Registered Users Posts: 22 ✭Merli


    MysticalRain wrote: »
    The Irish media have a lot to answer for.

    As do the people sheeple of this country who can't think for themselves.


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    #86
    jay0109
    Registered Users Posts: 2,670 ✭✭✭jay0109


    lima wrote: »
    Lolz 5k a month haha

    http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/property-prices-in-capital-climb-5000-a-month-30146793.html

    http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/property-recovery-spreading-nationwide-at-last-30138465.html

    I've seen many decreases on myhome, plus CSO says that prices FELL all year so far.

    Where are these vested-interest crazies getting the balls to self-promote these lies??

    In fairness, I have been saying for some time that I felt the prices in the areas of SCD that I am looking at are going up 20% or so a year since early 2012. People initially thought I was totally OTT, but around 5k a month is whats happening and has been like that for 2 years now


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    #87
    moxin
    Registered Users Posts: 1,203 ✭✭✭moxin


    jay0109 wrote: »
    In fairness, I have been saying for some time that I felt the prices in the areas of SCD that I am looking at are going up 20% or so a year since early 2012. People initially thought I was totally OTT, but around 5k a month is whats happening and has been like that for 2 years now

    SCD is a minority market in Dublin.


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    #88
    lima
    Registered Users Posts: 1,239 ✭✭✭lima


    jay0109 wrote: »
    In fairness, I have been saying for some time that I felt the prices in the areas of SCD that I am looking at are going up 20% or so a year since early 2012. People initially thought I was totally OTT, but around 5k a month is whats happening and has been like that for 2 years now

    I've noticed prices in Santry going down, so even if there were rises of that amount its only in a niche area of dublin.

    Its highly unlikely though since these are vested interests talking about asking prices (correct me if im wrong ) which they themselves make up. For e.g they can put a property up for sale for 200k and raise it a month later to 240k... oh my god its a 20% rise in a month!! They make up their own stats and then report it to a vested interest sensationalist tabloid like the independent.


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    #89
    jay0109
    Registered Users Posts: 2,670 ✭✭✭jay0109


    http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/bank-of-ireland-to-pay-stamp-duty-for-firsttime-buyers-30148751.html
    Bank of Ireland to pay stanmp duty on behalf of 1st time buyers
    However, Karl Deeter of Irish Mortgage Brokers said: “That a bank is willing to pay a persons stamp duty has the hallmarks of the kind of thing we used to see in the run up to the boom.
    “Clawing back lost market share in this manner would be better served by giving people greater choice as opposed to paying them off.”


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    #90
    jay0109
    Registered Users Posts: 2,670 ✭✭✭jay0109


    moxin wrote: »
    SCD is a minority market in Dublin.

    true, but a big minority. And as thats the area I'm looking at, I'm just reporting what I have seen


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    #91
    jay0109
    Registered Users Posts: 2,670 ✭✭✭jay0109


    lima wrote: »
    I've noticed prices in Santry going down, so even if there were rises of that amount its only in a niche area of dublin.

    Its highly unlikely though since these are vested interests talking about asking prices (correct me if im wrong ) which they themselves make up. For e.g they can put a property up for sale for 200k and raise it a month later to 240k... oh my god its a 20% rise in a month!! They make up their own stats and then report it to a vested interest sensationalist tabloid like the independent.

    Yes, they make up figures to suit their agenda. But don't let your own biases get in your way either.
    If someone said to me 2 odd years ago that prices would be going like they are now, I would have laughed in their face. But it's happening....houses in areas that I am interested in and which were going for close to 450k in 2011 are now getting 650k or thereabouts.
    Totally blown me out of the market


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