CSO - Dublin House prices fall in Feb 2014, 2nd month in a row

who_ru

lima wrote: »

I've noticed prices in Santry going down, so even if there were rises of that amount its only in a niche area of dublin.

Its highly unlikely though since these are vested interests talking about asking prices (correct me if im wrong ) which they themselves make up. For e.g they can put a property up for sale for 200k and raise it a month later to 240k... oh my god its a 20% rise in a month!! They make up their own stats and then report it to a vested interest sensationalist tabloid like the independent.

Correct. That is in essence what is happening.

moxin

jay0109 wrote: »

true, but a big minority. And as thats the area I'm looking at, I'm just reporting what I have seen

I think it has been quite established here that SCD is in a different planet to the rest of most of Dublin, it does contain the wealthier parts of the entire country.

The Spider

Merli wrote: »

As do the people sheeple of this country who can't think for themselves.

Ah haven't been here for a while, seems the gnashing of teeth and blaming the people and the media has begun.

FYI a lot of people sat out the boom and saw the bottom in 2011/2012, like me for instance after watching the last rises.

Fact is 2012 was the bottom, there was a thread that went for a year about a glut of repossessed houses depressing the market, guess what it din'y happen.

Sure prices may drop, but it wont be for another 10 years at least, that's what happened last time.

And if they do drop, the prices'll still be higher than they are today, after the crash in 2007 prices were still higher than they were in 1997.

You lads'll still be talking about this, next year.

lima

The Spider wrote: »

Ah haven't been here for a while, seems the gnashing of teeth and blaming the people and the media has begun.

FYI a lot of people sat out the boom and saw the bottom in 2011/2012, like me for instance after watching the last rises.

Fact is 2012 was the bottom, there was a thread that went for a year about a glut of repossessed houses depressing the market, guess what it din'y happen.

Sure prices may drop, but it wont be for another 10 years at least, that's what happened last time.

And if they do drop, the prices'll still be higher than they are today, after the crash in 2007 prices were still higher than they were in 1997.

You lads'll still be talking about this, next year.

FYI, We are talking about the recent price falls in dublin as per the CSO stats. Twice in two months prices are falling in Dublin.

The Spider

lima wrote: »

FYI, We are talking about the recent price falls in dublin as per the CSO stats. Twice in two months prices are falling in Dublin.

Yeah they seem to be going through the floor :rolleyes:

http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/dublin-property-prices-now-rising-by-5-000-a-month-survey-finds-1.1745750

gmisk

The Spider wrote: »

Yeah they seem to be going through the floor :rolleyes:

http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/dublin-property-prices-now-rising-by-5-000-a-month-survey-finds-1.1745750

Report by DNG

The defense rests

The Spider

gmisk wrote: »

Report by DNG

The defense rests

Ha, rest away, but guaranteed, you lads are clutching at straws.

I could just as easily say:

"A bunch of people on an internet forum who haven't bought houses, who now see prices rising are outraged at this development, they demand action by the government to reduce prices, at least until they've bought theirs, then prices can continue on their upward trajectory!"

lima

The Spider wrote: »

Yeah they seem to be going through the floor :rolleyes:

http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/dublin-property-prices-now-rising-by-5-000-a-month-survey-finds-1.1745750

Again, it would be better to trust a government source than someone who's bread and butter is property price rises.

Prices haven't fell through the floor but have been falling all year according to a source more reliable than EA's.

As a house seeker it's cheaper to buy now than in December.

minusthebear

this forum is making for painful reading with the same people repeating themselves time and time again

lima

The Spider wrote: »

Yeah they seem to be going through the floor :rolleyes:

http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/dublin-property-prices-now-rising-by-5-000-a-month-survey-finds-1.1745750

Again, it would be better to trust a government source than someone who's bread and butter is property price rises.

Prices haven't fell through the floor but have been falling all year according to a source more reliable than EA's.

As a house seeker it's cheaper to buy now than in December.

moxin

The Spider wrote: »

Ha, rest away, but guaranteed, you lads are clutching at straws.

I've started a thread on one specific middle class area in Dublin - Glasnevin.
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057181666 A simple analysis of whats been happening in 2014 so far regarding prices, using the PPR and Google as my tools.

Can you do the same for your areas too, perhaps SCD? It might help us give an insight as to what is going in in each specific area.

OMD

lima wrote: »

.

As a house seeker it's cheaper to buy now than in December.

You don't know that. An educated guess would say that buying a house now would cost more than if you bought in December but either way it is only a guess.

CSO figures are based on the actual sale. I.e. The actual date of the transaction. So you see a house in December, agree a price, house is taken off the market, sale takes the normal 6-8 weeks to go through, sale is counted as a February sale even though you bought it in December. You won't know April figures until June. If prices in June are not higher than the last CSO figures from February I will admit you are correct and never post on this forum again.
If prices in June are higher will you stop posting?

lima

OMD wrote: »

You don't know that. An educated guess would say that buying a house now would cost more than if you bought in December but either way it is only a guess.

CSO figures are based on the actual sale. I.e. The actual date of the transaction. So you see a house in December, agree a price, house is taken off the market, sale takes the normal 6-8 weeks to go through, sale is counted as a February sale even though you bought it in December. You won't know April figures until June. If prices in June are not higher than the last CSO figures from February I will admit you are correct and never post on this forum again.
If prices in June are higher will you stop posting?

To be honest I expect prices to be higher in June.

I'm just posting the same way as bulls were doing at the first sign of rising but then again the media is not interested in making falling prices a self fulfilling prophesy.

Also, do you believe DNG over CSO? If so, why?

who_ru

The Spider wrote: »

Ah haven't been here for a while, seems the gnashing of teeth and blaming the people and the media has begun.

FYI a lot of people sat out the boom and saw the bottom in 2011/2012, like me for instance after watching the last rises.

Fact is 2012 was the bottom, there was a thread that went for a year about a glut of repossessed houses depressing the market, guess what it din'y happen.

Sure prices may drop, but it wont be for another 10 years at least, that's what happened last time.

And if they do drop, the prices'll still be higher than they are today, after the crash in 2007 prices were still higher than they were in 1997.

You lads'll still be talking about this, next year.

i like your reasoning behind the claim that prices won't fall for another 10 years at least. Nobody can argue with it.

OMD

lima wrote: »

To be honest I expect prices to be higher in June.

I'm just posting the same way as bulls were doing at the first sign of rising but then again the media is not interested in making falling prices a self fulfilling prophesy.

Also, do you believe DNG over CSO? If so, why?

I believe CSO. I just don't believe your interpretation of the figures.

CSO figures are always going to be lower in Jan & Feb. this reflects sales over Christmas period which tends to be extraordinarily quiet. People with choices do not sell in December.

Idbatterim

Bank of Ireland to pay stamp duty for first time buyers!

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/bank-of-ireland-to-pay-stamp-duty-for-firsttime-buyers-30148751.html

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sites-lie-idle-while-cities-suffer-lack-of-family-homes-30140431.html

jmayo

Idbatterim wrote: »

Bank of Ireland to pay stamp duty for first time buyers!

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/bank-of-ireland-to-pay-stamp-duty-for-firsttime-buyers-30148751.html

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sites-lie-idle-while-cities-suffer-lack-of-family-homes-30140431.html

Useless bank.

AIB actually pay your mortgage.

Mr.McLovin

jmayo wrote: »

Useless bank.

AIB actually pay your mortgage.

:pac:

ted1

Idbatterim wrote: »

Bank of Ireland to pay stamp duty for first time buyers!

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/bank-of-ireland-to-pay-stamp-duty-for-firsttime-buyers-30148751.html

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sites-lie-idle-while-cities-suffer-lack-of-family-homes-30140431.html

No doubt revenue will be ensuring that this is declared so that it can be taxed.

jay0109

OMD wrote: »

I believe CSO. I just don't believe your interpretation of the figures.

CSO figures are always going to be lower in Jan & Feb. this reflects sales over Christmas period which tends to be extraordinarily quiet. People with choices do not sell in December.

Are the CSO figures for January related to actual deals in january itself, or a few months earlier but just were closed in january?

The_Conductor

The Spider wrote: »

Ah haven't been here for a while, seems the gnashing of teeth and blaming the people and the media has begun.

FYI a lot of people sat out the boom and saw the bottom in 2011/2012, like me for instance after watching the last rises.

Fact is 2012 was the bottom, there was a thread that went for a year about a glut of repossessed houses depressing the market, guess what it din'y happen.

Sure prices may drop, but it wont be for another 10 years at least, that's what happened last time.

And if they do drop, the prices'll still be higher than they are today, after the crash in 2007 prices were still higher than they were in 1997.

You lads'll still be talking about this, next year.

For your information- I can show you several properties in Dublin West, both commercial and residential, which sold for more in 1997-1998, than they have made recently. The bubble commenced in 1994- and was being commented on by pundits as soon as 1996- and shortly afterwards we had the ill fated series of reports by Peter Bacon........

I don't know whether you realise it or not- but you are coming across as gloating and antagonistic- some people might even deem it fairly high grade trolling. If you want to debate with people- fine- but do so based on facts, not the hyperbole you've become well known for in these parts.

Regards

The_Conductor

gaius c

gmisk wrote: »

Report by DNG

The defense rests

Interesting that the Times were able to report that and give it such high profile.

It was very difficult to find the article in their paper reporting the second monthly CSO drop in a row.

MouseTail

The_Conductor wrote: »

For your information- I can show you several properties in Dublin West, both commercial and residential, which sold for more in 1997-1998, than they have made recently. The bubble commenced in 1994- and was being commented on by pundits as soon as 1996- and shortly afterwards we had the ill fated series of reports by Peter Bacon........

I disagree that the bubble started in 1994. We did have rising house prices, but they were fuelled by dual incomes, sustainable growth, immigration, and housing shortage. Investors started piling in from 98. Had Bacons recommendations been adopted in 1999....

mr_seer

It can be very difficult to make a dispassionate assessment of whether or not property prices will continue to rise. It seems to me though that with unemployment still extraordinarily high and 120k+ households in severe mortgage distress, the mortgage arrears crisis is nowhere near resolved. I cannot imagine a scenario in which it gets solved without a lot of additional property coming on the market. Demand will stay subdued relative to historic norms because people's credit ratings have been destroyed and incomes have been subdued.

Jaybor

mr_seer wrote: »

It can be very difficult to make a dispassionate assessment of whether or not property prices will continue to rise. It seems to me though that with unemployment still extraordinarily high and 120k+ households in severe mortgage distress, the mortgage arrears crisis is nowhere near resolved. I cannot imagine a scenario in which it gets solved without a lot of additional property coming on the market. Demand will stay subdued relative to historic norms because people's credit ratings have been destroyed and incomes have been subdued.

What you can do now though is use real selling prices from the register and compare year on year prices for the same type properties in the same area and you will be able to see the real trend.
I see some people comparing asking prices to sale prices, as if that actually has any meaning at all. They should be comparing real sale prices.

jmayo

Jaybor wrote: »

What you can do now though is use real selling prices from the register and compare year on year prices for the same type properties in the same area and you will be able to see the real trend.
I see some people comparing asking prices to sale prices, as if that actually has any meaning at all. They should be comparing real sale prices.

I agree, but I think the comparison of asking to actual also is a useful tool at the moment.
It actually shows whether real prices are meeting those expected.
If we were having increasing prices (or the would be bubble some are talking up) then real prices would not be below asking prices in the numbers they are, unless of course the sellers were totally off their heads in the first place.

Granted seeing some of the asking prices out there that is a distinct possibility in some cases.

Jaybor

I think people need to look consider their understanding of a bubble.
ITs the most misused word in property these days.

lima

Looks like the vested interests of Independent are trying to make the CSO out to be liars:

http://www.independent.ie/lifestyle/property-homes/conflicting-q1-stats-make-everyone-look-foolish-30153405.html

This bit made me laugh:

"Prior to the CSO index, we had the Permanent TSB/ESRI index – run essentially on the basis of data provided by a vested interest – by Ireland's then largest mortgage provider."

...and what, so DNG and Sherry FitzGerald are not vested interests?

MouseTail

lima wrote: »

Looks like the vested interests of Independent are trying to make the CSO out to be liars:

That article states no such thing, it states what we have discussed many times on here, that the CSO data excludes cash sales. Where does it make them out to be liars?

Cuddlesworth

MouseTail wrote: »

That article states no such thing, it states what we have discussed many times on here, that the CSO data excludes cash sales. Where does it make them out to be liars?

The whole article doesn't once mention the PPR. You know, the database of sales figures for specific houses.