CSO - Dublin House prices fall in Feb 2014, 2nd month in a row

moxin

ted1 wrote: »

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexapril2014/#.U4YB9XJdVXG

moxin any thoughts?

Think i'll use your excuses from before http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=89217320&postcount=10

If these Sale Agreeds likely occurred in the months of Jan and Feb, it was very quiet in the market back then, sample would be too small.

Wish they release the figures on cash buyers, still waiting.

The CSO is currently examining Stamp Duty returns to the Revenue Commissioners, made via the Revenue Online Service (ROS), with a view to assessing both the extent of cash-based full market price transactions and any potential bias in the RPPI that might accrue from their exclusion.

PixelTrawler

The CSO figures dont count cash sales. But does the property price register cover all sales? Although with cash sales youd just never know Id guess.

Bigcheeze

PixelTrawler wrote: »

The CSO figures dont count cash sales. But does the property price register cover all sales? Although with cash sales youd just never know Id guess.

Register covers all sales. There's no way around it as property can't be transferred without stamp duty being paid.

Daft did an analysis of CSO vs ppr when it first came out and found the price movements were highly correlated. I.e the CSO data is a fair reflection of what's going on in the market.

anto9

Everyone just concentrates on Dublin property .Houses outside Dublin dropped in value in April and are just 1.3% above what they were the same month last year .

Theboinkmaster

anto9 wrote: »

Everyone just concentrates on Dublin property .Houses outside Dublin dropped in value in April and are just 1.3% above what they were the same month last year .

Rightly so - it's the capital where most people live.

gaius c

Rother wrote: »

Well that worked out

Just wait till next month!!!

Ted1. Poor form using published stats to go "ra ra my team is winning". Can you not just look at them as they are in a clear-headed manner and leave emotion to one side?

dublin runner

We are selling the family home in Artane, D5. With very few houses on sale in our area the question now is to sell now, when the supply is limited, or sell late in the year when the house might sell for more but the supply may be greater. I reckon there are a lot of people holding out and waiting for there house to reach xxx,xxx before putting it up for sale.

jay0109

dublin runner wrote: »

We are selling the family home in Artane, D5. With very few houses on sale in our area the question now is to sell now, when the supply is limited, or sell late in the year when the house might sell for more but the supply may be greater. I reckon there are a lot of people holding out and waiting for there house to reach xxx,xxx before putting it up for sale.

eventually, these prices will entice folk to sell up for fear of missing out. I'm even thinking of selling my now-too-small-family-home and cashing in....getting a decent rental and for a good length of time is the problem though

Frank Lee Midere

The Spider wrote: »

Economy is on the up, apart from that, there needs to be a certain amount of houses bought and sold every year to keep the market functioning.

Because of the crash no one sold any houses for over 5 years, creating a backlog of demand. People still wont sell their houses until the prices rise to wipe out the negative equity incurred.

No houses have been built either and at the moment building a house wont cover the costs.

The only way for more houses to become available is for prices to rise, that way sellers can sell, make a profit and not end up owing money on their houses, builders can build houses and make a profit selling them.

(I'll wait for the inevitable post about repossessions and people not paying their mortgage, this is a small amount of people in the grand scheme of things. The fact is most people in negative equity are paying their mortgages, the issue is none of them are selling their properties to either retire downsize or whatever, because the return is either too low, or they'll end up owing the bank money.)

So you see the only way there will ever be enough houses to meet demand in Dublin is for the prices to rise.

You really need to get over the idea that we will ever see boom time figures again. So in your view none of these people will sell their houses. We'll see.

There are a few factors at work here.

1) The government has allowed a CGT holiday for 2013/2014. Thats criminal but there you have it. Cash is flowing in and if it didn't the market would collapse.
2) Bedsits being banned has increased rental prices and therefore yield.
4) There probably hasn't been enough housing in Dublin but people are massively over-estimating that. Last year the natural increase was 40,000 across the country, immigration was net negative and therefore the increase was about 10,000. Of course a lot of that is babies born to houses where there are actual houses already. WE don't need the 30K a year so beloved of the construction industry.

This won't last, despite what Spider thinks houses will and are profitable at the present prices. There are 500 being built near me for instance, and a few thousand down the road. Thats the construction sector drinking the kool aid once again.

dublin runner

jay0109 wrote: »

eventually, these prices will entice folk to sell up for fear of missing out. I'm even thinking of selling my now-too-small-family-home and cashing in....getting a decent rental and for a good length of time is the problem though

Agreed. People who say we are not in a bubble (Dublin) are mistaken. The only way prices will stop increasing at the rate they are is if supply increases. I can't see this happening in the near future as house completion rates are still rock bottom.

anto9

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Rightly so - it's the capital where most people live.

Really .Dublin has approx one million people ,so that leaves 3 million living outside the Capital .I come originally from Dublin myself ,and i can kind of understand people thinking its their whole World .
I think more people should do what i did and get out of Dublin .Selling my small 2 bed in Central Dublin enabled me to buy a 4 bedroom bungalow with half an acre in Wexford .Granted you need to be self employed (like myself) ,work from home or be retired .The quality of life can be so much better outside the Capital .I have since moved to S.E.Asia to live but my argument stands .

Mezcita

anto9 wrote: »

Really .Dublin has approx one million people ,so that leaves 3 million living outside the Capital ..

"Population/Demographics
• The County Dublin population is 1,273,069.
• The population of the Greater Dublin Area (GDA) is 1,804,156 which accounts for 39% of the State’s population.
• The GDA’s population is expanding rapidly, and it is estimated by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) that it will reach 2.1 million by 2020,"

http://www.dubchamber.ie/policy/economic-profile-of-dublin

anto9

Mezcita wrote: »

"Population/Demographics
• The County Dublin population is 1,273,069.
• The population of the Greater Dublin Area (GDA) is 1,804,156 which accounts for 39% of the State’s population.
• The GDA’s population is expanding rapidly, and it is estimated by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) that it will reach 2.1 million by 2020,"

http://www.dubchamber.ie/policy/economic-profile-of-dublin[/QU

OK,but that kind of backs up my argument of too many people concentrated in one area .I found living in my Bungalow ,4 km outside Wexford town i had the best of both worlds .
IE,I was surrounded by open fields ,and within 10 minutes drive of many beaches ,yet had all the shops ,bars and services a large town can offer .Again its all relative though .With the money from selling in Wexford i have been able to buy several properties over here in S.E.Asia ,and the cost of living is far cheaper .They do have Water charges over here but they are small ,averaging 60 euros a year ,and the price has stayed the same for the last 10 years that i know of .

Rother

OK,but that kind of backs up my argument of too many people concentrated in one area .I found living in my Bungalow ,4 km outside Wexford town i had the best of both worlds .
IE,I was surrounded by open fields ,and within 10 minutes drive of many beaches ,yet had all the shops ,bars and services a large town can offer .Again its all relative though .With the money from selling in Wexford i have been able to buy several properties over here in S.E.Asia ,and the cost of living is far cheaper .They do have Water charges over here but they are small ,averaging 60 euros a year ,and the price has stayed the same for the last 10 years that i know of .[/QUOTE]


That would be great if everyone else in Dublin wanted to live in SE Asia or Wexford. Im sure they would follow you there and buy their houses.

But im guessing that everyone living in Dublin wants or needs to be living in Dublin.

I would love to live in Wexford, but the commute would kill me to my job. And if I change job, I will probably only get another job in Dublin But I may retire to Wexford some day.

harpsman

anto9 wrote: »

Really .Dublin has approx one million people ,so that leaves 3 million living outside the Capital .I come originally from Dublin myself ,and i can kind of understand people thinking its their whole World .
I think more people should do what i did and get out of Dublin .Selling my small 2 bed in Central Dublin enabled me to buy a 4 bedroom bungalow with half an acre in Wexford .Granted you need to be self employed (like myself) ,work from home or be retired .The quality of life can be so much better outside the Capital .I have since moved to S.E.Asia to live but my argument stands .

how are the ladyboys?

handlemaster

Prices are still rising. No sign of a cool off Just yet

murphaph

anto9 wrote: »

Really .Dublin has approx one million people ,so that leaves 3 million living outside the Capital .I come originally from Dublin myself ,and i can kind of understand people thinking its their whole World .
I think more people should do what i did and get out of Dublin .Selling my small 2 bed in Central Dublin enabled me to buy a 4 bedroom bungalow with half an acre in Wexford .Granted you need to be self employed (like myself) ,work from home or be retired .The quality of life can be so much better outside the Capital .I have since moved to S.E.Asia to live but my argument stands .

The vast majority of people are employees and even self employed usually have to live near their customer base, so it isn't feasible to suggest that people just leave Dublin and move to some rural location. Also check out the broadband forum for some downsides to rural life.

Balmed Out

murphaph wrote: »

The vast majority of people are employees and even self employed usually have to live near their customer base, so it isn't feasible to suggest that people just leave Dublin and move to some rural location. Also check out the broadband forum for some downsides to rural life.

True but you would be surprised how many people can and do work from home and how many move to rural areas. Plenty of rural areas with excellent broadband.

DoesNotCompute

handlemaster wrote: »

Prices are still rising. No sign of a cool off Just yet

Depends where you are looking at. Houses outside of Dublin have been dropping in price for the last two months.

murphaph

Balmed Out wrote: »

True but you would be surprised how many people can and do work from home and how many move to rural areas. Plenty of rural areas with excellent broadband.

And even more without. Like I said...go look at the Broadband forums. People moving out to the sticks and then complaining that they have no broadband and bemoaning the state for not subsidising the provision of it to them!

Living in a one off house in rural Ireland must have some drawbacks...otherwise houses would cost more than the cities, but they cost less.

I can work from home in my job and do some days but let's be realistic...most people can't. Even in industries where it's technically possible is is not widely allowed on a permanent basis (I'm thinking software development, which is what I work in). Most jobs require the person's physical presence to be able to work effectively or at all.

harpsman

Prices in dublin up 4% last month-i see the Cassandras have gone very quiet.

bombs away

everything that goes up must come down, I predict this will end pretty badly.......

again :P

jay0109

harpsman wrote: »

Prices in dublin up 4% last month-i see the Cassandras have gone very quiet.

4%...wow, thats good, great even....isn't it?;)

The_Conductor

harpsman wrote: »

Prices in dublin up 4% last month-i see the Cassandras have gone very quiet.

Its a localised price rise- based on asking prices- and the increase is focused firmly on Dublin West- with the largest increase in Tallaght.

Nationally- the various surveys are in disagreement with one another- Myhome.ie is reporting continued falls, other than in Cork and Galway- whereas Daft.ie is suggesting price increases across the board- with some startling rises in the Portlaoise area (and continued falls only in Longford and Louth).

It really is a mixed bucket- read into it what you will- there isn't an 'Irish' property market- there isn't even a 'Dublin' property market- its fragmented all over the place- and trying to look at overall figures is deeply misguided.

harpsman

jay0109 wrote: »

4%...wow, thats good, great even....isn't it?;)

As always, people who have bought will be delighted(i know this constant boom and bust is bad for us all long term but its human nature); people who havent will be disgusted.

jay0109

Not neccessarily...If my home was going up 20% a year (or even around 5%), I would'nt be happy. Because to me, that means another bust is on the way and/or it means that my friends/family/children in the future may not be able to afford to buy.

Plus the small little matter of Property Tax....higher house prices = more property tax on your next bill.

So I doubt anyone with half a brain who bought recently will be too happy if prices keep roaring ahead at 4% a month

Glenbhoy

The_Conductor wrote: »

Its a localised price rise- based on asking prices- and the increase is focused firmly on Dublin West- with the largest increase in Tallaght.

Nationally- the various surveys are in disagreement with one another- Myhome.ie is reporting continued falls, other than in Cork and Galway- whereas Daft.ie is suggesting price increases across the board- with some startling rises in the Portlaoise area (and continued falls only in Longford and Louth).

It really is a mixed bucket- read into it what you will- there isn't an 'Irish' property market- there isn't even a 'Dublin' property market- its fragmented all over the place- and trying to look at overall figures is deeply misguided.

not to mention the very significant time lag before a sale is accounted for in the CSO figures. Those figures likely to reflect Jan sale agreeds at the latest.