Australia

razorhead

Free Eagle was brought home safely that day,wasn't a well horse

UrbanSea

Not necessarily that straight forward though

tryfix

Channel 4's Jim McGrath ( the Timeform one ) has selected Australia for the 2,000 Guineas, and Jim is no mug punter.

BumperD

He often selects horses. They don't always win.

UrbanSea

BumperD wrote: »

He often selects horses. They don't always win.

He would know more than most. There's a reason Timeform can charge 3 pound a day subscription, if he thinks he can get a mile I'd listen more than most on here

BumperD

I am fully aware of who Jim McGrath is.

He often selects horses on C4. They don't always win

jimjamcos

UrbanSea wrote: »

He would know more than most. There's a reason Timeform can charge 3 pound a day subscription, if he thinks he can get a mile I'd listen more than most on here

Yes, but what's he basing it on? The same as what I've seen Cunningham and Blake say, no doubt - the flood of homework reports from Ballydoyle.

tryfix

BumperD wrote: »

He often selects horses. They don't always win.

Correct, and I don't particularly expect Australia to win, but I do respect the fact that while he's prepping for the Derby by trying to win or place in the Guineas today that he's the stables number one choice despite them having the Dewhurst winner in the race.

UrbanSea

And Bumper can you point out where I said he would. I respect his opinion

UrbanSea

Sure Camelot can't win the Guineas, lay of the century. A Montjeu guineas winner

UrbanSea

King man very strong again

BumperD

UrbanSea wrote: »

King man very strong again

Who you on Urban? 13/8 a bit short but I took 2/1 as I thought it was about right. Always nervous with the build up to these big races with young horses.

UrbanSea

BumperD wrote: »

Who you on Urban? 13/8 a bit short but I took 2/1 as I thought it was about right. Always nervous with the build up to these big races with young horses.

No one Bumper looking forward to the race though. Australia seriously strong all of a sudden, 4.9 into 3.85 in about ten minutes

UrbanSea

Australia the one to take from that I would say. Done very short in the run

jimjamcos

UrbanSea wrote: »

Australia the one to take from that I would say. Done very short in the run

7/4 best price for Derby, evens with some.

UrbanSea

Won't back at that price but he really could be top class. Easily beat his own side

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

Australia the one to take from that I would say. Done very short in the run

Yeah, he made up a lot of ground in the closing stages and may even have won if he was in the Kingman group.

I'd be more interested in the unplaced horses as betting prospects in the future, four unplaced Group 1 winners in behind who could bounce back at very nice prices in the future. Toormore and War Command would be interesting Irish Guineas, St James Palace Stakes types.

Can't make my mind up about Kingman, could be Ravens pass improvement in him, but I think he's probably fragile enough and quite possibly a brilliant Sprinter with give in the ground.

Gringo180

Kingston Hill wasn't beaten far I think he could be a big improver with a step up in distance.

sting60

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Lol. You actually haven't a notion or you are trolling

Wow.

sting60

Australia will not win the Derby Imo.Looks as good as he is bred.

BumperD

sting60 wrote: »

Australia will not win the Derby Imo.Looks as good as he is bred.

Was delighted to see him beaten today. I never follow hype and Australia was all about hype. I wouldn't be surprised if the winner Night of Thunder hurt himself today near the finish. He won this day last yr and hannon has another 2yr old in the same race at Donny this evening.

UrbanSea

How could you say it is hype yet, that was a brilliant run.

NewApproach

sting60 wrote: »

Wow.

What's this all about?

sting60

UrbanSea wrote: »

How could you say it is hype yet, that was a brilliant run.

Urban explain your comments.

Goldcupfav

BumperD wrote: »

Was delighted to see him beaten today. I never follow hype and Australia was all about hype. I wouldn't be surprised if the winner thunder strike hurt himself today near the finish. He won this day last yr and hannon has another 2yr old in the same race at Donny this evening.

Night of Thunder won today not Thunder Strike. Night of Thunder won his maiden at Goodwood.

the groutch

to only finish 1/2L back, over an inadequate trip, on the wrong side of the course pace wise, and without the benefit of a run this season that the first two had, is an incredibly good run.

kiers47

It's early days yet. But surely Australia is the one to take from the race. A worthy derby favourite on all things considered!!

Gringo180

sting60 wrote: »

Australia will not win the Derby Imo.Looks as good as he is bred.

He's just came third in one of the hottest Guineas in years over a trip that would be on the short side for him, are you for real or what

sting60

Gringo180 wrote: »

He's just came third in one of the hottest Guineas in years over a trip that would be on the short side for him, are you for real or what

Did you post pre 2,000g ,need to see your knowledge,if ok.

UrbanSea

sting60 wrote: »

Urban explain your comments.

It's self explanatory what a run, beat his group easily flew home. Could be anything up in trip

Gringo180

sting60 wrote: »

Did you post pre 2,000g ,need to see your knowledge,if ok.

Yes. I thought Kingman would of won. But he was beaten by the better horse today in Night of Thunder who would of won by more if he didn't veer half way across the track. But to write Australia off in the Derby a trip he will love after that run today is frankly..... laughable!

sting60

UrbanSea wrote: »

It's self explanatory what a run, beat his group easily flew home. Could be anything up in trip

No do not agree,if you back him you will lose Imo to win a Derby.I need you to make money.

Mostly Harmless

I was quite sceptical about Australia pre-race, but as others have outlined, he has probably run as well as he could have done without winning the race. Looks a worthy fav for the Derby for me at this point in time, albeit that I would not want to get involved at the current odds.

UrbanSea

What was bad about his run sting considering you said he had no chance

sting60

Every person bar non slagged me about my take on O Briens best ever horse Australia.His form was not solid imo and his breeding is suspect to say the least.7/4 to win a Derby based on what we saw today and unexposed horses that will run over the next few weeks,my god.

diomed

What I get from the race is Australia is on course for the Derby. Before today his form was questionable. If he gets 12f, which is likely, and handles Epsom he will feature.

I read there was a headwind today of about 5 to 10 mph. If that is true then Fallon probably did Night Of Thunder a favour by keeping him covered up until very late.
Fwiw I checked the Racing Post Weekender to see if anyone tipped the winner. One person did, Kieran Fallon, but he tips everything he rides.

Gringo180

sting60 wrote: »

Every person bar non slagged me about my take on O Briens best ever horse Australia.His form was not solid imo and his breeding is suspect to say the least.7/4 to win a Derby based on what we saw today and unexposed horses that will run over the next few weeks,my god.

Whats wrong with his breeding? He is out of 2 champion middle distance horses.

BumperD

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Night of Thunder won today not Thunder Strike. Night of Thunder won his maiden at Goodwood.

Sorry, I had a brain fart earlier, mixed up the names.

sting60

Gringo180 wrote: »

Whats wrong with his breeding? He is out of 2 champion middle distance horses.

Do your homework.

paddy no 11

Stings already said she's a cack brood mare and has set himself up against from day 1. looking forward to the derby now, sting versus the rest!

Gringo180

sting60 wrote: »

Do your homework.

I think he gets all his talent from his sires side of the family. You don't pay 500k+ for a badly bred horse.

sting60

paddy no 11 wrote: »

Stings already said she's a cack brood mare and has set himself up against from day 1. looking forward to the derby now, sting versus the rest!

Am i wrong , but that is asking to much of your knowledge of breeding Imo.

paddy no 11

sting60 wrote: »

Am i wrong , but that is asking to much of your knowledge of breeding Imo.

Where have I said I know sweet f all about breeding or disagreed with your viewpoint?

Nonoperational

sting60 wrote: »

No do not agree,if you back him you will lose Imo to win a Derby.I need you to make money.

Jesus your attitude is something. Yes he was beaten today, in a messy race where he was in the opposite group to the winner, over a trip that looks short of his optimum, on his first run of the season closing nicely at the end. He was beaten a head by your 2/1 fancy Kingman and frankly I know who I'd be on if they met again.

Like it was a nice run today. He may have won a lesser Guineas and honestly I can't see how he emerges with anything but credit today. I didn't back him because I don't like hype and short prices, but he's the obvious Derby fav.

tryfix

sting60 wrote: »

Am i wrong , but that is asking to much of your knowledge of breeding Imo.

She's thrown a few decent foals and this excellent 2,000 Guineas 3rd, who's seen as a star in a very very powerful stable of exquisitely bred animals.

Ouija Board's progeny.

1st foal Our Voodoo Prince OR 95 won 6 races one of them a Group 3 in Australia and placed in a listed race in the UK.

2nd Foal Aegaeus, a dual winner by Monsun with a ridiculously stoute pedigree ( DI 0.44 ) who still managed to rate at 90 before he was exported to Germany.

3rd Foal Filia Regina won only one modest race by 8l in a single year career.

4th Foal Australia. Group winning 2yo, 2,000 Guineas placed and favourite for the Derby.

So Australia is not poorly bred because his Dam has produced the goods already, although Ouija Board's dam produced plenty of quantity rather than quality, she still produced Ouija Board and Star Selection who ran in Erhaab's Derby. She produced a host of winners who won on the flat before going National Hunt racing. It's a tough gutsy family, that upgrades itself, which actually bodes well for Australia's ability to take his racing.

newuser89

The form of the guineas will be solid I think
Toormore beat the grey gatsby a similar distance to last time so he showed no improvement from his first run

convert

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Lol. You actually haven't a notion or you are trolling

If you've a problem with a post, then report it rather than taking matters into your own hands.

Gringo180

Nice form boost for Australia with Kingfisher winning the Derby trial at Chester there.

Goldcupfav

Gringo180 wrote: »

Nice form boost for Australia with Kingfisher winning the Derby trial at Chester there.

More of a form boost for FASCINATING ROCK imo. FASCINATING ROCK runs in the Derrinstown trial on Sunday at Leopardstown. PP have priced him up at 3/1 for the race. On what the horse has done so far this season it should be 6/4 fav. Ive had a nice bet at 3/1 as i doubt that price will last. Sorry if this is off topic just very surprised that 3/1 is available.

Pat power

Goldcupfav wrote: »

More of a form boost for FASCINATING ROCK imo. FASCINATING ROCK runs in the Derrinstown trial on Sunday at Leopardstown. PP have priced him up at 3/1 for the race. On what the horse has done so far this season it should be 6/4 fav. Ive had a nice bet at 3/1 as i doubt that price will last. Sorry if this is off topic just very surprised that 3/1 is available.

Il have a few quid on him m8,slightly off topic but do any of ye think true story is a good thing for the dante at 5/4?