Australia

Pat power

Goldcupfav wrote: »

More of a form boost for FASCINATING ROCK imo. FASCINATING ROCK runs in the Derrinstown trial on Sunday at Leopardstown. PP have priced him up at 3/1 for the race. On what the horse has done so far this season it should be 6/4 fav. Ive had a nice bet at 3/1 as i doubt that price will last. Sorry if this is off topic just very surprised that 3/1 is available.

Il have a few quid on him m8,slightly off topic but do any of ye think true story is a good thing for the dante at 5/4?

Pat power

Goldcupfav wrote: »

More of a form boost for FASCINATING ROCK imo. FASCINATING ROCK runs in the Derrinstown trial on Sunday at Leopardstown. PP have priced him up at 3/1 for the race. On what the horse has done so far this season it should be 6/4 fav. Ive had a nice bet at 3/1 as i doubt that price will last. Sorry if this is off topic just very surprised that 3/1 is available.

Il have a few quid on him m8,slightly off topic but do any of ye think true story is a good thing for the dante at 5/4?

Itziger

Well, well, well.

Yes, yes, yes.

Johner

Aidan O'Brien is still pinching himself at training a horse of the "exceptional" quality of Australia as he builds towards the Investec Derby on June 7.

A son of Galileo out of the brilliant racemare Ouija Board, Australia burst onto the scene with a scintillating victory at Leopardstown last September and despite his stout breeding, was strongly fancied for the Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket earlier this month.

Although he came up just short on the Rowley Mile, beaten three-quarters of a length into third behind the Kieren Fallon-ridden Night Of Thunder, he ran a perfect trial and is the red-hot favourite for Epsom.

Speaking at a press morning at Ballydoyle, the trainer said: "He's a Derby horse we've not had the like of before.

"I thought Camelot was the best horse we had for the Derby, but this horse is another step up. The very first time he worked as a two-year-old we knew he was exceptional and the lads always rated him.

"I've never had a horse like this. I'm not trying to blow him up, I'm just saying how it is. A lot of things have to go right, though. For a horse by Galileo to be doing what he's doing, we've never had that before.

"The reason we were excited before the Guineas (was that) his lead horse was Oklahoma City and he was treating him with contempt every day.

"Even in March and April (last year), he was doing half-speeds with horses he shouldn't have been able to go with.

"What pricked everyone's ears was one morning he did four furlongs and it was 11 seconds a furlong for each furlong.

"I can't remember a two-year-old doing that before. It's very unusual and when he pulls up he would be yawning!

"When Frankie (Dettori) was over last year, he jumped off the ground after he sat on him. He's very uncomplicated, very relaxed. He has a great cruising speed, a great mind and has speed.

"He's also bred to get the trip well and that makes him exceptional."

It has been a relatively slow start to the season for Ballydoyle team, with O'Brien revealing some of his string were under the weather earlier in the year.

For that reason, he is expecting Australia to improve considerably for his comeback run at Newmarket.

"At the start of the year we were struggling a bit, it hasn't been straightforward. We had a bit of a cough around for a long time. I think it's more or less gone now, we're happy with where the horses are now. We've trained our way gently through it," said the trainer.

"If the horses are going to a Classic, they have to run in a prep race. We're not complaining about it, everyone gets a run of it sometimes.

"Australia was sick six weeks before the Guineas - he was probably the first horse to show signs of the cough and then it spread like wildfire through the yard."

Of the Guineas, which saw the field split into two, with Australia in the near-side group, O'Brien said: "At Newmarket it would obviously have been better if the horses had all been in a bunch. We knew from halfway he was behind so he had to make a move early. Therefore he was getting there early and had to keep going.

"It was only in the last half-furlong he spotted Kieren's horse coming. It was great for Richard Hannon, though, who did a great job."

Does O'Brien never get tired of saying the exact same thing every year. :pac:

BumperD

Evidently, not.

chinguetti

Good of them too to tell everyone that the yard was coughing in the last few weeks.

Francie Barrett

chinguetti wrote: »

Good of them too to tell everyone that the yard was coughing in the last few weeks.

Yea but everything is alright now, what a joke.

UrbanSea

Ye are gullible lads. Aidan always quick to blame himself or something else for his horses being beat. I wouldn't be surprised if there was no cough

LutherBlissett

It's amazing the way there is so much pressure on him re the horses' breeding and so on that he would literally rather take the blame for losing the race than have it on the horses' shoulders. You do not see that often.

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

Itziger

LutherBlissett wrote: »

It's amazing the way there is so much pressure on him re the horses' breeding and so on that he would literally rather take the blame for losing the race than have it on the horses' shoulders. You do not see that often.

Not sure, Luther. The bloke gets a big wad of cash each year with the understanding that he doesn't diss the horses for the obvious future breeding reason. After that he can say what he wants. Sometimes the "it was my fault" line rings fake to me. It's not just O'Brien who does that and not only in Racing do you see it.

You can't be saying that all the bleeding time of course!!

diomed

11.41 seconds was Australia's fastest furlong in the 2000 Guineas! What happened the 11 second furlongs?
I assume Aidan was counting anything under 12 seconds as an 11 second furlong.

chinguetti

Ok we all know that they spin all these stories like mad and everything is aimed at the stallion end of things but they'll always be an excuse if they don't win. Its just getting sillier every year and you would think that O'Brien knows he's looking foolish but has little choice.

But does anyone pick their stallion for their mare on the comments that a trainer/jockey make and not on the bloodlines/racing performance of the stallion in question?

The comment I found odd by O'Brien (and again a pinch of salt is required here) that the 'lads' see the times for the gallops that the horses have done in training before the trainer does.

Johnny_Fontane

so I have him backed from July at 20/1 (tip from mate). never layed a horse before, and have €20 on him. If I wanted to hedge my bets here, how would I go about it?

diomed

Johnny_Fontane wrote: »

so I have him backed from July at 20/1 (tip from mate). never layed a horse before, and have €20 on him. If I wanted to hedge my bets here, how would I go about it?

Open a Betfair account, deposit the amount of money you want to lay, go to Horse Racing/Antepost/GB/Epsm 7th June/The Derby and click the Lay button beside the horse Australia.
You should lay an amount equal to the amount you would win if Australia wins.

UrbanSea

20 quid would you not just let it run

Johnny_Fontane

UrbanSea wrote: »

20 quid would you not just let it run

probably right, nothing like the satisfaction of taking hundreds of euros off the bookies in cash

might just back a couple of outsiders. If australia doesnt win, who else is looking like they have a shot?

UrbanSea

You could lay say 200 at around evens to ensure 200 profit either way

Gringo180

Johnny_Fontane wrote: »

. If australia doesnt win

He will win.

Nonoperational

UrbanSea wrote: »

20 quid would you not just let it run

UrbanSea wrote: »

You could lay say 200 at around evens to ensure 200 profit either way

Your second point is the better course of action in my opinion. Guaranteeing yourself €200 is not a bad pay day. Nothing is nothing.

sting60

Gringo180 wrote: »

He will win.

Why.Based on form he looks Imo a very ordinary horse.The major problem is there is nothing around but that is not to say something from Ballydoyle can beat him.What a very very poor 3yr old crop this year.No mention from anywhere how badly bred he is,astonishing from some bought journalists.

UrbanSea

Sting your continued use of that line is irritating you'd swear he was a tenth goal out of a maiden who is yet to produce a winner

Francie Barrett

UrbanSea wrote: »

Sting your continued use of that line is irritating you'd swear he was a tenth goal out of a maiden who is yet to produce a winner

I wouldn't be going anywhere near the horse at that price, but I too just can't understand how it's a badly bred horse.

sting60

UrbanSea wrote: »

Sting your continued use of that line is irritating you'd swear he was a tenth goal out of a maiden who is yet to produce a winner

The facts are there to understand.If a top TV female journo is not allowed to dissect Australias form because of fear of Ballydoyle pulling the plug on any info or interviews.

sting60

UrbanSea wrote: »

Sting your continued use of that line is irritating you'd swear he was a tenth goal out of a maiden who is yet to produce a winner

Very sorry, so block me and we are finished.

Francie Barrett

sting60 wrote: »

Very sorry, so block me and we are finished.

No one is disagreeing with you. The question that is being asked is why the horse is bred so badly? I for one am not trying to be smart. For me, Australia looks like it has impeccable Derby breeding. I just don't understand how you can say otherwise.

sting60

Francie Barrett wrote: »

No one is disagreeing with you. The question that is being asked is why the horse is bred so badly? I for one am not trying to be smart. For me, Australia looks like it has impeccable Derby breeding. I just don't understand how you can say otherwise.

Francie,Please look at what she has thrown .She is related to a hurdler.Last of four shocking matings was to Galileo and she reached a high of 65 [poor seller].Now dont do the hype.

UrbanSea

Sting what I'm saying is he is no way near as well bred as some of the others they have, especially Bracelet or the guineas winner today he just isn't as woefully bred as you are implying. Though you can see how people are getting ahead of themselves because he is by an Oaks winner out of a derby winner. When was the last oaks winner to produce a derby winner

sting60

A very lot of eggs/basket in my opinion.

curioser

UrbanSea wrote: »

he is by an Oaks winner out of a derby winner.

Maybe it is because it is Sunday night but is this statement biologically suspect?

diomed

I posted this on the Betfair Derby forum

His dam, Ouiuja Board, hasn't produced another good runner:
Filia Regina (filly) by Galileo: four 7th places, one win in a 0-60 handicap at Yarmouth, from five starts.
Our Voodoo Prince (colt) by Kingmambo: 4 wins from 18 starts, earnings £89k, most of it £49k in his last (18th) race (10f win) at Caulfield, Australia.
Aegaeus (gelding) by Monsun: 2 wins from 15 starts for £11k. A maiden win, and a 0-85 handicap win over 12f on Kempton AW "allowed to dictate moderate pace".
Australia (colt) by Galileo: 2 wins from 4 starts, a maiden win and a 4 runner Group 3.

abarkie

Judging by the last few posts on this thread, Australia will be 6/4 this time tomorrow

diomed

Favourites in the Derby for the last 50 years.

1964_Santa Claus________won 15/8_[was 1 of 17]
1965_Sea-Bird___________won 7/4_[was 1 of 22]
1966_Right Noble____________9/2_[was 9 of 25]
1966_Pretendre______________9/2_[was 2 of 25]
1967_Royal Palace_______won 7/4_[was 1 of 22]
1968_Sir Ivor___________won 4/5_[was 1 of 13]
1969_Ribofilio______________7/2_[was 5 of 26]
1970_Nijinsky___________won 11/8_[was 1 of 11]
1971_Mill Reef__________won 100/30_[was 1 of 21]
1972_Roberto____________won 3/1_[was 1 of 22]
1973_Ksar_______________5/1_[was 4 of 25]
1974_Nonoalco_______________9/4_[was 7 of 18]
1975_Green Dancer___________6/4_[was 6 of 18]
1976_Wollow_______________11/10_[was 5 of 23]
1977_Blushing Groom_________9/4_[was 3 of 22]
1978_Inkerman_______________4/1_[was 21 of 25]
1979_Ela-Mana-Mou___________9/2_[was 4 of 23]
1980_Nikoli_______________4/1_[was 8 of 24]
1981_Shergar____________won 10/11_[was 1 of 18]
1982_Golden Fleece______won 3/1_[was 1 of 18]
1983_Teenoso____________won 9/2_[was 1 of 21]
1984_El Gran Senor__________8/11_[was 2 of 17]
1985_Slip Anchor________won 9/4_[was 1 of 14]
1986_Dancing Brave__________2/1_[was 2 of 17]
1987_Reference Point____won 6/4_[was 1 of 19]
1988_Red Glow_______________5/2_[was 4 of 14]
1989_Nashwan____________won 5/4_[was 1 of 12]
1990_Razeen_______________9/2_[was 14 of 18]
1991_Toulon_______________4/1_[was 9 of 13]
1991_Corrupt_______________4/1_[was 6 of 13]
1992_Rodrigo de Triano______13/2_[was 9 of 18]
1993_Tenby_______________4/5_[was 10 of 16]
1994_Erhaab_____________won 7/2_[was 1 of 25]
1995_Pennekamp______________11/8_[was 11 of 15]
1996_Dushyantor_____________9/2_[was 2 of 20]
1997_Entrepreneur___________4/6_[was 4 of 13]
1998_Cape Verdi_____________11/4_[was 9 of 15]
1999_Dubai Millennium_______5/1_[was 9 of 16]
2000_Beat Hollow____________7/2_[was 3 of 15]
2001_Galileo____________won 11/4_[was 1 of 12]
2001_Golan_______________11/4_[was 2 of 12]
2002_Hawk Wing______________9/4_[was 2 of 12]
2003_Refuse To Bend_________11/4_[was 13 of 20]
2004_North Light________won 7/2_[was 1 of 14]
2004_Snow Ridge_____________7/2_[was 7 of 14]
2005_Motivator__________won 3/1_[was 1 of 13]
2006_Visindar_______________2/1_[was 5 of 18]
2007_Authorized_________won 5/4_[was 1 of 17]
2008_Casual Conquest________7/2_[was 3 of 16]
2009_Fame And Glory_________9/4_[was 2 of 12]
2010_Jan Vermeer____________9/4_[was 4 of 12]
2011_Carlton House__________5/2_[was 3 of 13]
2012_Camelot____________won 8/13_[was 1 of 9]
2013_Dawn Approach__________5/4_[was 12 of 12]

Gringo180

sting60 wrote: »

Why.Based on form he looks Imo a very ordinary horse.The major problem is there is nothing around but that is not to say something from Ballydoyle can beat him.What a very very poor 3yr old crop this year.No mention from anywhere how badly bred he is,astonishing from some bought journalists.

He was a close 3rd in what looks like the best 2000 Guineas in years, on his first run of the season (the first 2 had the benefit of a run) at a trip that is on the sharp side for him. Based on form he is a Group 1 animal and potentially a superstar in the making.

Francie Barrett

diomed wrote: »

I posted this on the Betfair Derby forum

His dam, Ouiuja Board, hasn't produced another good runner:
Filia Regina (filly) by Galileo: four 7th places, one win in a 0-60 handicap at Yarmouth, from five starts.
Our Voodoo Prince (colt) by Kingmambo: 4 wins from 18 starts, earnings £89k, most of it £49k in his last (18th) race (10f win) at Caulfield, Australia.
Aegaeus (gelding) by Monsun: 2 wins from 15 starts for £11k. A maiden win, and a 0-85 handicap win over 12f on Kempton AW "allowed to dictate moderate pace".
Australia (colt) by Galileo: 2 wins from 4 starts, a maiden win and a 4 runner Group 3.

Cheers for that.

If you're going to be harsh on Australia's breeding though, then what could win here that has shown form and has fit that breeding criteria? Geoffrey Chaucer has worse breeding and True Story's form just got badly smashed up. Fascinating Rock should not stay and that in turns puts Ebanoran's form into question.

I have just backed the horse with the worst breeding in the race (Toast of New York) at 33/1, so go figure. Horse might just be a freak of nature.

diomed

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Cheers for that.

If you're going to be harsh on Australia's breeding though, then what could win here that has shown form and has fit that breeding criteria? Geoffrey Chaucer has worse breeding and True Story's form just got badly smashed up. Fascinating Rock should not stay and that in turns puts Ebanoran's form into question.

I have just backed the horse with the worst breeding in the race (Toast of New York) at 33/1, so go figure. Horse might just be a freak of nature.

Geoffrey Chaucer is by Montjeu, who has sired four Derby winners in the last 9 years.
His dam, Helsinki, is the dam of French 2000 Guineas and Derby winner Shamardal, and she is a full sister to sire Street Cry. But Helsinki's other eight foals have not been exciting.

My money is on Geoffrey Chaucer at 21s, and small on Our Channel at 308. The prices are part of the decision.
GC has not run any fast times, all his three runs were very slow. And he has run against fewer horses to date than any other in the race.

I rate all Derby and Oaks entries on 7 pedigree items.
The last 64 Derbys 1950-2013: 7 points (21 winners); 6 (23); 5 (4); 4 (3); 3(5); 2(4);1(4).
Unfortunately in 2014, 25 of 27 entries have 7,6,5 points, so this year it is not helpful. Almost all the field are good on pedigree.

I use other pedigree analysis that I prefer not to discuss.

Australia's dam, Ouija Board, had a good pedigree imo, in that her dam, Selection Board has a highly inbred pedigree. Often a highly inbred mare is a bad runner, but produces top horses at stud. But Selection Board is Ouija Board's dam, and I question if her influence carries to Australia.
I do not really find a flaw in Australia, but the Derby has punctured a few balloons. If he does not win, I think he will have the speed, but there is a slight chance he may run out of stamina.

Doogs27

cant get my head around why they (Ballydoyle/AOB) would hype this horse up more than any of the hype horses in the recent past if they genuinely didnt think he was the real deal. Fair enough, if he had some kind of injury or shortened career and went straight to stud then they find a selling point in the whole ''Best AOB has ever trained'' . But he will be there for the world to see in a couple of weeks and theyll end up with egg on their faces should he not deliver.

MY biggest regret is not launching Camelot in a poor derby. Wont have that regrets again, He's as close to a banker as I'll ever call a Derby horse imo.

diomed

Aidan O'Brien has had 54 runners in the Derby in the 16 years from 1998 to 2013. A €1 on each would return a loss of €36.14 or -67%.

His four winners were Galileo 11/4; High Chaparral 7/2; Camelot 8/13; Ruler Of The World 7/1.

Notable Failures:
Second Empire 9/2 8th and King Of Kings 11/2 15th;
Aristotle 5/1 10th;
Hawk Wing 9/4 2nd;
Brian Boru 9/2 16th;
Gypsy King 7/2 5th;
Horatio Nelson 11/2 PU;
Eagle Mountain 6/1 2nd and Archipenko 13/2 17th;
Fame And Glory 9/4 2nd and Rip Van Winkle 6/1 4th;
Jan Vermeer 9/4 4th and Midas Touch 6/1 5th;
Recital 5/1 6th and Seville 13/2 10th;
Astrology 13/2 3rd; Battle Of Marengo 11/2 4th.

Best ever? Did he put the 50 losers into the race saying they all had a chance?

54 horses: 4x1st; 6x2nd; 3x3rd; 4x4th; 6x5th; 3x6th; 2x7th; 4x8th; 2x9th; 7x10th; 2x11th; 5x12th; 1x14th; 2x15th; 1x16th; 1x17th; 1xPU.

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

Aidan O'Brien has had 54 runners in the Derby in the 16 years from 1998 to 2013. A €1 on each would return a loss of €36.14 or -67%.

His four winners were Galileo 11/4; High Chaparral 7/2; Camelot 8/13; Ruler Of The World 7/1.

Notable Failures:
Second Empire 9/2 8th and King Of Kings 11/2 15th;
Aristotle 5/1 10th;
Hawk Wing 9/4 2nd;
Brian Boru 9/2 16th;
Gypsy King 7/2 5th;
Horatio Nelson 11/2 PU;
Eagle Mountain 6/1 2nd and Archipenko 13/2 17th;
Fame And Glory 9/4 2nd and Rip Van Winkle 6/1 4th;
Jan Vermeer 9/4 4th and Midas Touch 6/1 5th;
Recital 5/1 6th and Seville 13/2 10th;
Astrology 13/2 3rd; Battle Of Marengo 11/2 4th.

Best ever? Did he put the 50 losers into the race saying they all had a chance?

54 horses: 4x1st; 6x2nd; 3x3rd; 4x4th; 6x5th; 3x6th; 2x7th; 4x8th; 2x9th; 7x10th; 2x11th; 5x12th; 1x14th; 2x15th; 1x16th; 1x17th; 1xPU.

[SIZE=-1]Yes, but lets compare like with like. O'Brien's first string English 2,000 Guineas horses who went on to run at Epsom.

King Of Kings DI = 1.78 CD = 0.64[/SIZE] 1st Newmarket 2,000 Guineas. Didn't stay, flopped at Epsom.

[SIZE=-1] Hawk Wing DI = 2.00 CD = 0.63[/SIZE] 2nd Newmarket 2,000 Guineas. Stayed but not that well 2nd Epsom.

Eagle Mountain [SIZE=-1] DI = 1.12 CD = 0.06 [/SIZE]5th Newmarket 14/1, 2nd Epsom stayed.

Rip Van Winkle [SIZE=-1]DI = 1.10 CD = 0.27 - 4th Newmarket 9/2, 4th Epsom in a very hot Derby.[/SIZE]

Camelot [SIZE=-1]DI = 0.68 CD = -0.06 - 1st Newmarket, 1st Epsom.

[/SIZE]Australia [SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1]DI = 1.00 CD = 0.19- 3rd Newmarket, ? Epsom.



The speedily bred Hawk Wing and King Of Kings weren't the Derby types that the more stoutly bred Camelot was.

When O'Brien sends a hyped Derby type horse to Newmarket as his first string in the 2,000 Guineas, like he did with Camelot and St Nicholas Abbey then they're the real deal. It'll take a really good one to beat Australia.
[/SIZE][/SIZE]

diomed

For completeness let's add in some other Aidan O'Brien 2000 Guineas horses

1999 Saffron Walden 7th at Epsom, 1st in the Irish 2000 Guineas. (DI 1.38)
2005 Oratorio 10th at Epsom, 2nd in Irish 2000, 4th in English 2000. (DI 1.24)
2013 Mars, 6th at Epsom, 6th in the English 2000 Guineas. (DI 1.29)

A couple of these have form better than Australia, had low dosage index numbers, and were well beaten.

Australia winning at Epsom is not a penalty kick. As you say it will take a good one to beat him, but then the winner is always a good one.

St Nicholas Abbey didn't run in the Epsom Derby.

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

For completeness let's add in some other Aidan O'Brien 2000 Guineas horses

1999 Saffron Walden 7th at Epsom, 1st in the Irish 2000 Guineas. (DI 1.38)
2005 Oratorio 10th at Epsom, 2nd in Irish 2000, 4th in English 2000. (DI 1.24)
2013 Mars, 6th at Epsom, 6th in the English 2000 Guineas. (DI 1.29)

A couple of these have form better than Australia, had low dosage index numbers, and were well beaten.

Australia winning at Epsom is not a penalty kick. As you say it will take a good one to beat him, but then the winner is always a good one.

St Nicholas Abbey didn't run in the Epsom Derby.

None of those were O'Briens Winter Derby horse sent to Newmarket as his first string in an effort to win or place there on the way to their Derby.

St Nicholas Abbey was specifically targetting the English 2,000 guineas and Epsom Derby double. His subsequent form showing that if he had turned up at Epsom that he would have been up to winning such a race.

There is zero wrong with Australia's 2,000 Guineas form. Form which has been franked since, his two year old form having been franked by Kingfisher's Derby Trial win.

The question with Australia is one of his having the pedigree to win a Derby. He lacks a bit there, but he is a beautifully uncomplicated unfussy horse who gets better the further he goes and who's clearly been Balldoyle's Winter Derby horse.

Personally I think he'll win easily if the ground dries out despite his pedigree.

If the ground remains soft then it's time for some serious value hunting in the pack.

Doogs27

So where would you rank Australia in terms of Camelot at this stage in their careers. Both impressive guineas runs, Camelot showing a great kick at the end when delivered late, Australia's more of a constant acceleration a la So You Think.
Would you be more or less confident in Australia in the Derby than you were Camelot.

andyman

Think this Derby is a good bit better than Camelots Derby. Camelot's was god awful

faoile@n

Doogs27 wrote: »

So where would you rank Australia in terms of Camelot at this stage in their careers. Both impressive guineas runs, Camelot showing a great kick at the end when delivered late, Australia's more of a constant acceleration a la So You Think.
Would you be more or less confident in Australia in the Derby than you were Camelot.

Camelot won a stink RP Trophy and a terrible renewal of the 2000 Guineas.

In spite of not winning in Newmarket Australias form is significantly better than Camelots going into the Derby.

Australias achilles heel is his ability to stay the derby trip.

I suspect his stablemate Geoffrey Chaucer is the biggest danger and I wouldn't put it past Ballydoyle to re-route him to France :eek:

BumperD

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Cheers for that.

If you're going to be harsh on Australia's breeding though, then what could win here that has shown form and has fit that breeding criteria? Geoffrey Chaucer has worse breeding and True Story's form just got badly smashed up. Fascinating Rock should not stay and that in turns puts Ebanoran's form into question.

I have just backed the horse with the worst breeding in the race (Toast of New York) at 33/1, so go figure. Horse might just be a freak of nature.

Toast nr

Slattsy

Ground on the soft side. Wonder will it improve, anyone got an idea what the forecast is like?

Doogs27

Supposed to rain on the Friday and pick up into the twenties on Saturday.

UrbanSea

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Cheers for that.

If you're going to be harsh on Australia's breeding though, then what could win here that has shown form and has fit that breeding criteria? Geoffrey Chaucer has worse breeding

The fact that they keep on talking up Australia ahead of Geoffrey Chaucer must say something. Geoffrey is quite easily the best bred colt Ballydoyle have this year, if they won a derby with him it would be massive that is a proper stallion's pedigree, That is a top class Darley family and Street Cry being one of the best US stallions in the last twenty years.

That is hands down a better stallion pedigree than a cape cross whose dam has a hurdle winning sibling but it's not necessarily that straight forward

Gringo180

UrbanSea wrote: »

The fact that they keep on talking up Australia ahead of Geoffrey Chaucer must say something. Geoffrey is quite easily the best bred colt Ballydoyle have this year, if they won a derby with him it would be massive that is a proper stallion's pedigree, That is a top class Darley family and Street Cry being one of the best US stallions in the last twenty years.

That is hands down a better stallion pedigree than a cape cross whose dam has a hurdle winning sibling but it's not necessarily that straight forward

Could be hyping Australia up so if GC beats him they can hype up this Montjeu colt even more :pac:

If it comes up soft I will be backing Gosdens colt Romsdal (if supplemented), he ran a nice race last time out just failing to peg back Orchestra and a faster run race will suit him much better. He really stuck his head out and tried the last day so he has a good attitude which is a plus.

diomed

Epsom dries very quickly. If it is soft on Wednesday of Derby week and it doesn't rain it would likely be good on the day. You can see the pieces of chalk in the soil on any broken ground near the course e.g. grass footpaths, car parks.

I am reading Lord Derby and His Horses by Quintin Barry and the going in the early 20th century is often described as hard.