Australia

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

The fact that they keep on talking up Australia ahead of Geoffrey Chaucer must say something. Geoffrey is quite easily the best bred colt Ballydoyle have this year, if they won a derby with him it would be massive that is a proper stallion's pedigree, That is a top class Darley family and Street Cry being one of the best US stallions in the last twenty years.

That is hands down a better stallion pedigree than a cape cross whose dam has a hurdle winning sibling but it's not necessarily that straight forward

Geoffrey Chaucer is a half brother to the top sire Shamardal. It's a top stallions pedigree. If he's up to winning the Derby, he'd be worth big bucks to them.

With Montjeu as his sire it's a classic stamina laden Derby pedigree.

PS: The rest of his siblings are worse performers than Australia's siblings are.

TheMilkyPirate

Diomed and Tryfix are a credit to this forum, Love reading your posts.

diomed

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Diomed and Tryfix are a credit to this forum, Love reading your posts.

Someone once said on the poker forum when I got into a discussion that got a bit lengthy
"Its like watching Serie A, highly skilled defensive play, and a little boring."

Slattsy

Speculation that ground will be on the soft side going by the forecasts.

Not good for Australia ap backers (me) lol

TheCitizen

Australia drifting in the market to 5to4, about what price to people think he becomes decent value again? He should've won the guineas, very unsatisfactory the way that race is run a lot of the time with the field splitting.

Maybe something like Kingston Hill e/w is a better bet?

diomed

I don't think Australia would have won the 2000 Guineas in any circumstances. He had a clear run.
From the sectional times these were the positions over the last few furlongs.
It shows the first and second had speed he didn't have.

Horse_____________3f out__2f out___1f out__WP
Night Of Thunder______13_____13_____7_____1
Kingman_____________14______9_____3_____2
Australia______________8______4_____1_____3
Shifting Power_________3______3_____4_____4

andyman

Western Hymn is the value bet here, surely?

king Henry 14

Hi guys, have had a few nice wins on fascinating rock this year and was thinking of having a nice e/w bet on him on Saturday. Do ye think he will be out of his depth in this company. Stable form is excellent and he looks like he will get the mile and a half. Would appreciate yer opinion guys.:)

nuckeythompson

king Henry 14 wrote: »

Hi guys, have had a few nice wins on fascinating rock this year and was thinking of having a nice e/w bet on him on Saturday. Do ye think he will be out of his depth in this company. Stable form is excellent and he looks like he will get the mile and a half. Would appreciate yer opinion guys.:)

Not at all. He will be my bet , only thing is will he be shorter or longer odds on Saturday. Australia is very overhyped but to his credit has some ability.
Fascinating Rock ran very well in the derrinstown(i think it was that) and will have improved upon that. Should Australia have an off day Fascinating Rock is a very good bet in my opinion.

king Henry 14

nuckeythompson wrote: »

Not at all. He will be my bet , only thing is will he be shorter or longer odds on Saturday. Australia is very overhyped but to his credit has some ability.
Fascinating Rock ran very well in the derrinstown(i think it was that) and will have improved upon that. Should Australia have an off day Fascinating Rock is a very good bet in my opinion.

Cheers man. I think the mile and a half will be ideal. 14s at the moment. Bet now or wait till Saturday? Choices choices.

UrbanSea

Not sure why people would be so quick to assume he will reverse form with Oxx's colt I thought he was lucky to get it in the stewards room last time. Call me skeptical but I can't see a Fastnet Rock Derby winner but maybe I'm wrong

faoile@n

I'm not sure how people are so convinced that Fascinating Rock will stay 1m4f around Epsom.

I'd fancy Ebanoran & Geoffrey Chaucer to finish in front of him in the Derby.

Gringo180

Gringo180 wrote: »

If it comes up soft I will be backing Gosdens colt Romsdal (if supplemented), he ran a nice race last time out just failing to peg back Orchestra and a faster run race will suit him much better. He really stuck his head out and tried the last day so he has a good attitude which is a plus.

I see Gosden has supplemented Romsdal. I think he could run a big race, was very impressed with the way he finished at Chester behind Orchestra, didnt look to really handle the track and was about 4 or 5 lengths behind O Briens colt at the furlong pole but finished like an absolute train and was only beat a short head but was about a length or 2 ahead a few strides after the winning post. He may be more of a Leger horse (Although it was a very slow run race that day)but hes one to side with each way at around 16/1. Be interesting to see who Buick chooses to ride.

andyman

Buick is on board Western Hymn

Slattsy

Geoffrey wins on soft ground.

Gringo180

andyman wrote: »

Buick is on board Western Hymn

Source?

Edit - Just seen that there with a quick Google.

Johner

Buick told ATR today in his blog.

Hughes is on Romsdal.

Gringo180

Johner wrote: »

Buick told ATR today in his blog.

Hughes is on Romsdal.

Yeah just reading that now, hes more hopeful than confident that he has picked the right one. When Gosden suplements a horse at a cost of 70 grand you should take notice.

slaneylad

Can anyone tell me do the coolmore lads own Ladbrokes or are they only share holders? Tabor owns betvictor. Are they share holders in any other bookies?

nuckeythompson

slaneylad wrote: »

Can anyone tell me do the coolmore lads own Ladbrokes or are they only share holders? Tabor owns betvictor. Are they share holders in any other bookies?

share holders of ladbrokes, not sure of any other betting firm

nuckeythompson

faoile@n wrote: »

I'm not sure how people are so convinced that Fascinating Rock will stay 1m4f around Epsom.

I'd fancy Ebanoran & Geoffrey Chaucer to finish in front of him in the Derby.

based on last two runs over 1.2 seemed he had something left in the tank IMO

UrbanSea

Slattsy wrote: »

Geoffrey wins on soft ground.

I hate when people talk in certainties. He does have to reverse the form with two horses. Not impossible I'd like to see him win it myself

nuckeythompson

UrbanSea wrote: »

Not sure why people would be so quick to assume he will reverse form with Oxx's colt I thought he was lucky to get it in the stewards room last time. Call me skeptical but I can't see a Fastnet Rock Derby winner but maybe I'm wrong

I think and hope he does reverse it. Also think it was the right decision in the stewards room

UrbanSea

He was touched alright but thought he had every chance. He got level and wouldn't go by

nuckeythompson

UrbanSea wrote: »

He was touched alright but thought he had every chance. He got level and wouldn't go by

just watched it again, def correct decision by the stewards. touched but FR was improving until he was touched
must admit the stewards probably would not have looked at it had it been a handicap or similar/ or due to the trainers

Goldcupfav

Derrinstown was a farce of a race. No pace in the race at all turned into a 3 furlong sprint coming around the bend at Leopardstown. Gary O'Brien interviewed Pat Smullen and Dermot Weld after the race on ATR. Smullen said it was a joke of a race with no pace at all in it he said himself he knew riding in the race that it was going to turn out that way. He was actually surprised at how much speed Fasinating Rock showed during the race. He also said he was a proper horse and wouldnt swap him for any other in the race. Weld's view was that they were training the horse at home to switch off during his races and that he thought F.R. lost his balance turning in at Leopardstown due to the sprint the race turned into. It took Pat awhile to get him back balanced and get him fully into stride. This isnt word for word what was said in the interviews just mostly what i remember.

Maybe Urban you could setup a Derby Thread as dont want be derailing this one in the build up to Saturday?

nuckeythompson

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Derrinstown was a farce of a race. No pace in the race at all turned into a 3 furlong sprint coming around the bend at Leopardstown. Gary O'Brien interviewed Pat Smullen and Dermot Weld after the race on ATR. Smullen said it was a joke of a race with no pace at all in it he said himself he knew riding in the race that it was going to turn out that way. He was actually surprised at how much speed Fasinating Rock showed during the race. He also said he was a proper horse and wouldnt swap him for any other in the race. Weld's view was that they were training the horse at home to switch off during his races and that he thought F.R. lost his balance turning in at Leopardstown due to the sprint the race turned into. It took Pat awhile to get him back balanced and get him fully into stride. This isnt word for word what was said in the interviews just mostly what i remember.

Maybe Urban you could setup a Derby Thread as dont want be derailing this one in the build up to Saturday?

what do you think was the best derby trial in your opinion?

Goldcupfav

nuckeythompson wrote: »

what do you think was the best derby trial in your opinion?

2000 Guineas looks like it could be one of the strongest in a long time. Derrinstown looked to have alot of quality to it but the way the race was run wasnt good as a trial. Hard to nail down a certain trial imo.

Slattsy

The Guineas is always the best trial.

tryfix

Glad to see Australia prove the doubters wrong, he would have thrashed them by 5l if the pace had been slower. The race was fast by 1.07 sec. He stays 12f but the second and third were very stoutly bred and it showed.

It was a hard race for him, hope it hasn't bottomed him.

Slattsy

Slattsy wrote: »

The Guineas is always the best trial.

+1

Itziger

tryfix wrote: »

Glad to see Australia prove the doubters wrong, he would have thrashed them by 5l if the pace had been slower. The race was fast by 1.07 sec. He stays 12f but the second and third were very stoutly bred and it showed.

It was a hard race for him, hope it hasn't bottomed him.

It wasn't a slog though. He was asked to go at about the 3 furlong pole, maybe 2 and 1/2, I'd have to see it again. He got a few smacks and went clear and then had to be kept up to his work as they say.

Ground wasn't too testing either it seems, so I'd be hopeful it hasn't emptied him. They might give him a little break alright. Would they go for 10 furlongs in the future, or keep him to 12?

Slattsy

Joey asked him at the 2f pole.
Didnt use the whip until the furlong pole.
Wasnt an overly tough race.

tryfix

Itziger wrote: »

It wasn't a slog though. He was asked to go at about the 3 furlong pole, maybe 2 and 1/2, I'd have to see it again. He got a few smacks and went clear and then had to be kept up to his work as they say.

Ground wasn't too testing either it seems, so I'd be hopeful it hasn't emptied him. They might give him a little break alright. Would they go for 10 furlongs in the future, or keep him to 12?

I think they said he wasn't going to the Curragh, so I'd imagine it'll be onto the Coral Eclipse and or the King George and then the Champion stakes at Leopardstown finishing the season with a crack at the Arc/Breeders Cup Classic double.

You get the impression they'd like a crack at 1 mile again but nah, best to avoid Kingman like the plague.

I take your point about his cruising through the race, he did pick up again after the line in relation to the second so I think he'd take that horse again if they meet.

Gringo180

Gringo180 wrote: »

I see Gosden has supplemented Romsdal. I think he could run a big race, was very impressed with the way he finished at Chester behind Orchestra, didnt look to really handle the track and was about 4 or 5 lengths behind O Briens colt at the furlong pole but finished like an absolute train and was only beat a short head but was about a length or 2 ahead a few strides after the winning post. He may be more of a Leger horse (Although it was a very slow run race that day)but hes one to side with each way at around 16/1. Be interesting to see who Buick chooses to ride.

This horse will win the Leger!

Gringo180

.

allthedoyles

Australia

kencoo

he was sold as a yearling for circa 550k which is relatively cheap considering his parents. anyone know why?

faoile@n

kencoo wrote: »

he was sold as a yearling for circa 550k which is relatively cheap considering his parents. anyone know why?

His dam had bred flute all to date but considering the stud fee minus the sale price Coolmore got an absolute bargain.

Staggering really.

razorhead

razorhead wrote: »

Chatting a guy who saw the back of Australia and he wouldn't have him at all, but keep an eye on Free Eagle later in the year!!! take from it what you may....

Well he's back today. will be interesting to see how he goes.

hawkeyethenoo

tryfix wrote: »

Glad to see Australia prove the doubters wrong, he would have thrashed them by 5l if the pace had been slower. The race was fast by 1.07 sec. He stays 12f but the second and third were very stoutly bred and it showed.

It was a hard race for him, hope it hasn't bottomed him.

he is overrated, plain and simple.

FIVE2_THREE

hawkeyethenoo wrote: »

he is overrated, plain and simple.

The horse is far from overrated. the race was lost at the start where he is a liability. he needs every bit of 12f and not 10f

andyman

hawkeyethenoo wrote: »

he is overrated, plain and simple.

Like I said about Taghrooda, it's very easy to say this after the race has been lost.

hawkeyethenoo

FIVE2_THREE wrote: »

The horse is far from overrated. the race was lost at the start where he is a liability. he needs every bit of 12f and not 10f

andyman wrote: »

Like I said about Taghrooda, it's very easy to say this after the race has been lost.

he is a top class horse no doubt about it but yes he is overrated by o brien and lots of people on this forum. needs every bit of 12f yet lots of people say he has the speed to trouble kingman over a mile. as i said top class horse but still overrated.

FIVE2_THREE

hawkeyethenoo wrote: »

he is a top class horse no doubt about it but yes he is overrated by o brien and lots of people on this forum. needs every bit of 12f yet lots of people say he has the speed to trouble kingman over a mile. as i said top class horse but still overrated.

O'Brien is his trainer. do you expect him to get on TV and say "OH HE IS THE WORST I'VE EVER TRAINED'' Com on man stop depending on what trainers say

tryfix

hawkeyethenoo wrote: »

he is overrated, plain and simple.

He's overrated by O'Brien, but not by the public or handicapper. He ran well today, I would estimate that he ran to about 126 today, he's rated 127 but Joseph rode a very stupid race and was weak in the finish.

You can't go running around way out on the outside of the bends all the way around Leopardstown and then expect to do a Dancing Brave unless you're on a Dancing Brave which Australia ain't.

The winner is underrated, was underrated for his Juddmonte second and is entitled to be champion 3yo based on this performance. Ryan Moore won the race by his good race riding just as surely as Joseph lost it by his poor riding, but Australia doesn't deserve to rated above The Grey Gatsby until he beats him again.

On ratings, Kingman is another horse who's got something to prove, both beaten horses in the GP2 mile today at Leopardstown, Darwin boosted from 112 to a laughable OR 119 for his 1 1/4l proximity to Kingsman and Mustajeeb who was Kingman's Irish 2,000 guineas victim who was subsequently given a silly rating of 119 for his 1l Jersey stakes win over a 114 rated horse are proof that there's a bit of shenanigans going on re efforts in boosting Kingman if at all possible.

I'd fancy Australia for the Arc if he ran in it on good ground and with a better Jockey, there's no way a Jockey of the caliber of Moore, Murtagh or Kinane would have been beaten on Australia today..

Time to dump Junior and get real for Coolmore.

Gringo180

Will the Grey Gatsy go for the Arc now. No doubt about it he is a serious animal. .

jimjamcos

Will Coolmore grab the bull by the horns now and target British Champion/Arc to rebuild the reputation, or take easy option out, claim injury and retire him? 50/50 I think

tryfix

Gringo180 wrote: »

Will the Grey Gatsy go for the Arc now. No doubt about it he is a serious animal. .

The Qipco Champion Stakes is likely to be the next target for The Grey Gatsby and Ryan ( trainer ) said: "I'm immensely proud of the horse and it was a great ride. Now the horse will get the credit he deserves because he hasn't had it yet.
"He saved a lot of ground on the inside and was passing horses without doing a lot. When I saw him picking up I thought he'd go close.
"He won't go for the Arc. He might go to Ascot for the Champion Stakes if he runs again but he stays in training next year when he'll start off in the Duty Free in Dubai."

http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=3255324&category=0

paddyisreal

Gringo180 wrote: »

Will the Grey Gatsy go for the Arc now. No doubt about it he is a serious animal. .

No chance of winning this arc imo. Treve, just a way, avertin certin are a class above the first two today