Good economic news thread

beeno67

Godge wrote: »

Those are incredible figures.

Income tax up 4% y-o-y after the cuts in the budget implies a growth rate in the domestic economy of around 5% (stripping out the distortion effects of the MNCs.). People should be feeling this good news in their pockets now as pay increases, it can't just be new employment.

In fairness the timings matter a lot here. Figures good, but not as good as they appear to be. We will have a better picture next month.

Dave!

Godge wrote: »

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0204/677759-cso-live-register/

An so it continues, unemployment down even further to 10.5%.

We are now down 20% from the peak.

It is now very difficult to argue against the idea that the domestic economy has started a strong recovery.

I'd recommend you avoid Twitter, because you'll find no shortage of people (still) pointing to emigration and Jobbridge as the reason for the continuing drop in unemployment – even with income tax takes increasing. In the mind of the doom merchants, the only jobs being created are toilet cleaning internships. Meanwhile, in the real world...

http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0204/677753-eircom-jobs-apprentice-graduate/

Eircom to create 375 apprentice and graduate jobs over next five years

Eircom has launched new apprentice and graduate programmes which will create 375 new jobs in the company over the next five years.

The Group says the initiative is part of a €18m investment aimed at enhancing the company's skills base.

Eircom says this is the first large-scale sustained recruitment programme by the company in almost 30 years.

300 jobs will be created through an apprentice programme which will run over five years, recruiting 60 apprentices per year.

A further 75 jobs will be created through a graduate programme which will also run over five years, recruiting 15 honours graduates a year.

Applications are open from today and both programmes will run for two years from September.

Godge

Dave! wrote: »

I'd recommend you avoid Twitter, because you'll find no shortage of people (still) pointing to emigration and Jobbridge as the reason for the continuing drop in unemployment – even with income tax takes increasing.

Oh I tried Twitter for a short while, it made boards.ie seem like a haven of intellectualism.

The CSO National Household Survey backs up the employment numbers.

I wouldn't be surprised if 2015 saw a return to net immigration, it certainly is a possibility for 2016.

Dave!

I had more or less assumed that we had net immigration now – are there any stats floating about on migration?

Calibos

Great. When does the credit crunch end though?? Ya, know the thing that started the dominos falling in the first place.
Suppliers cant access credit, thus have massively tightened credit to us. The bank has tightened credit to the degree that one more cut in our overdraft limit and its the end of us despite turnover, margins and profit levels at the same level as 2004 when we and they were happy as pigs in the proverbial. ie. Yes Turnover and profits are back down 30% from the highs of 2007 but to 2004 levels when there was no problem accessing credit. Bloody seasonal cashflow is going to kill us now that the banks don't want to accommodate it anymore. Someone needs to tell the banks that converting overdrafts into term loans and then cutting overdraft limits is not increasing credit to SME's like they claim they are doing.

ezra_pound

Dave! wrote: »

I had more or less assumed that we had net immigration now – are there any stats floating about on migration?

We've had positive net migration since the mid nineties. 2010 was net neutral but every other year this millennium there's been more immigration than emigration.

Godge

Calibos wrote: »

Great. When does the credit crunch end though?? Ya, know the thing that started the dominos falling in the first place.
Suppliers cant access credit, thus have massively tightened credit to us. The bank has tightened credit to the degree that one more cut in our overdraft limit and its the end of us despite turnover, margins and profit levels at the same level as 2004 when we and they were happy as pigs in the proverbial. ie. Yes Turnover and profits are back down 30% from the highs of 2007 but to 2004 levels when there was no problem accessing credit. Bloody seasonal cashflow is going to kill us now that the banks don't want to accommodate it anymore. Someone needs to tell the banks that converting overdrafts into term loans and then cutting overdraft limits is not increasing credit to SME's like they claim they are doing.

That is the last remaining obstacle to growth.

During the 2000s the banks lost the capacity to judge businesses and identify those that were worthy of capital. This was exacerbated by the early retirement schemes in the last years of the decade that were used to shed staff. It will take a while before banks build up the ability to make those judgments. Until then they will rely on computers telling them what to do.

carzony

I read an article the other day that said 100 odd businesses are staring up everyday in Ireland and business liquidation is the lowest it's been in many years.

Has anyone else noticed how busy it's become though? particularly in the city centre. You can really see a difference in the number of people on the streets and cars on the road.

We are going in the right direction alright

Nothing scientific or anything, but speaking to the bus driver a few weeks ago he told me his route is now taking him an extra 40 mins every morning and the bus is once again packed with people.

Kermit.de.frog

I noticed on the DART line the other day old warehouses being knocked and new buildings being built. Good sign.

Rightwing

There is no doubt the recovery is gathering momentum, in many respects the economy is healthier now than ever before (apart from rural Ireland). Government mustn't get complacent though with pay and services etc.

ardmacha

Ireland fastest growth in EU
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0205/678006-eu-euro-growth/

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-15-4085_en.htm

Godge

Rightwing wrote: »

There is no doubt the recovery is gathering momentum, in many respects the economy is healthier now than ever before (apart from rural Ireland). Government mustn't get complacent though with pay and services etc.

The problem for rural Ireland is that no rural community in the world is experiencing economic growth. We can't expect to buck the trend.

It was only possible to do so in the boom because the boom was false. The explosion of building and construction in rural places without services and facilities was the froth on the froth of the boom. Those places will pay for years.

Rightwing

Godge wrote: »

The problem for rural Ireland is that no rural community in the world is experiencing economic growth. We can't expect to buck the trend.

It was only possible to do so in the boom because the boom was false. The explosion of building and construction in rural places without services and facilities was the froth on the froth of the boom. Those places will pay for years.

I tend to agree with this.

However, Noonan has said the recovery will spread to rest of the country this year. I fail to see how this can happen for the reasons you have outlined.

Godge

Rightwing wrote: »

I tend to agree with this.

However, Noonan has said the recovery will spread to rest of the country this year. I fail to see how this can happen for the reasons you have outlined.

It is possible that places like Cork, Galway, Limerick, Waterford and some of the larger towns like Sligo, Carlow, Athlone, Tralee, Kilkenny etc. will see growth, but beyond that the prospects are bleak.

If you are talking about the likes of Mountmellick, Mountrath, Mallow, Macroom, Moneygall, Monaghan, Malin, Midleton, Milford or Maum, to use towns just starting with "M", then you would be very optimistic if you saw growth in them.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

Godge

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

The public sector saw pay cuts last year, the private sector saw pay rises last year, so that is hardly true.

The private sector economy in Dublin is doing very well. Restaurants, shops and pubs are busy again, construction has restrarted.

The divide isn't between public and private (why do some people always bring it back to that?), it is between urban and rural.

Urban economic development will power ahead for the next ten years, as is happening worldwide. Rural economic development will stagnate at best, despite schemes like rural broadband etc. It just cannot compete.

ardmacha

However, encourage of enterprise and not just dropping in FDI with limited links to the economy would be a wise move and would have a better spread of development.

Godge

ardmacha wrote: »

However, encourage of enterprise and not just dropping in FDI with limited links to the economy would be a wise move and would have a better spread of development.

The policy of dropping in FDI with limited links to the economy is an old one - Fruit of the Loom in Donegal being one example of it in action, MBNA in Carrick another.

The main policy nowadays is towards clustering companies. Pharmaceutical companies are concentrated in Cork. The local university and IOT are geared up for co-operation with them.

beeno67

Godge wrote: »

The public sector saw pay cuts last year, the private sector saw pay rises last year, so that is hardly true.
.

Average pay for private sector and public sector fell in the 12 months up to Q3 2014 which are the most recent figures. Why do you persist with this kind of post and then immediately follow up with
"The divide isn't between public and private (why do some people always bring it back to that?)"
You are the one bringing it back to that. Anyway it is pointless as in the Public Sector last year there was no actual cut to pay for the vast majority so it is a bit disingenuous to suggest the public sector had pay cuts. I am not saying it is wrong as strictly speaking it is true.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

Rightwing

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

You are spot on here, but so is the other poster, there is a massive urban/rural divide now. (And by urban I mean the 4 main cities). The 2 points are interlinked of course, as most of the FDI are concentrated in these cities.

Godge

http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0223/682120-apple-investment-galway/

Another 300 jobs.


"The company says 300 jobs will be created over the multiple phases of the development process, from construction to operation."

Phoebas

Godge wrote: »

http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0223/682120-apple-investment-galway/

Another 300 jobs.


"The company says 300 jobs will be created over the multiple phases of the development process, from construction to operation."

If you were to believe some of the contributors over on this thread, this investment is terrible news altogether.

FreudianSlippers

Phoebas wrote: »

If you were to believe some of the contributors over on this thread, this investment is terrible news altogether.

Can't access (presumably After Hours?) what's the objection generally?

Arsemageddon

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Can't access (presumably After Hours?) what's the objection generally?

Feck all objections really, some posters are pointing out that after construction is complete a data centre doesn't really need many staff to keep it operating

Geuze

Godge wrote: »

The divide isn't between public and private (why do some people always bring it back to that?), it is between urban and rural.

Urban economic development will power ahead for the next ten years, as is happening worldwide. Rural economic development will stagnate at best, despite schemes like rural broadband etc. It just cannot compete.

Indeed.

I have been saying for the last year that there are "two Irelands".

Dublin/Cork/Galway and the rest.

House prices rises in Dub and Galway have been huge, but no so outside.

Phoebas

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Can't access (presumably After Hours?) what's the objection generally?

It'll only take a couple of people to run it (on low wages). It will consume energy. A forestry development needs to be moved to facilitate it. It's operated by a cult (Apple).

FreudianSlippers

Phoebas wrote: »

It'll only take a couple of people to run it (on low wages). It will consume energy. A forestry development needs to be moved to facilitate it. It's operated by a cult (Apple).

Ah the usual!

I thought that both proposed centres were going to be carbon neutral and reintroduce native trees or something like that.

Ren2k7

Arsemageddon wrote: »

Feck all objections really, some posters are pointing out that after construction is complete a data centre doesn't really need many staff to keep it operating

Data centres are largely automated, barring the odd bit of maintenance and security staff to keep the place from being stripped down by Tinkers. Not sure where Apple are getting that 300 figure from.

Sheldons Brain

Could the waste heat from this place be used for a greenhouse or something? Environmentally sound and a few extra jobs locally.

antoobrien

Ren2k7 wrote: »

Not sure where Apple are getting that 300 figure from.

300 during construction, 100 permanent.

ardmacha

Employment increase
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/numbers-in-employment-rise-by-29-100-in-q4-of-2014-1.2116822

Unemployment decrease

Quin_Dub

antoobrien wrote: »

300 during construction, 100 permanent.

Wonder how many of that 100 will actually need to be in Athenry though?

100 jobs is a 100 jobs so all good in the overall scheme of things, but given that most Data centre admin is done remotely, I wonder about the benefits to the local economy after construction..

antoobrien

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Wonder how many of that 100 will actually need to be in Athenry though?

100 jobs is a 100 jobs so all good in the overall scheme of things, but given that most Data center admin is done remotely, I wonder about the benefits to the local economy after construction..

Even if the site in Athenry is administered remotely, there will be physical maintenance, security and other onsite work required. To put it in a bit of context, it's in essence a 166,000 sq m foot factory - almost 5 times as big as the Ikea in Ballymun (35,000 sq m).

It will be hosting realtime data, so 24/7 access will be required, so take your day office numbers by 4 (e.g. 3 shifts and weekends).

Also data centers are considered security risks by companies like apple (security doesn't exist if you have physical access), so there will be higher level of security than your average warehouse.

Phoebas

I presume Apple will pay rates to Galway CoCo on the back if this development.

Kermit.de.frog

ardmacha wrote: »

Employment increase
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/numbers-in-employment-rise-by-29-100-in-q4-of-2014-1.2116822

Unemployment decrease

The problems in terms of the fall in unemployment really start from here though. I'd be concerned given the numbers of people now unemployed so long that they are practically unemployable and also the social welfare traps are there too.

Good progress made but a long way to go.

KingBrian2

Europe is facing a chronic unemployment problem and we are no different. These jobs are very good for Athenry and the whole west of the country. Infrastructure connecting Dublin with cities and towns in the midlands, south east and north east has now to be worked out for greater efficiency so that all these places can benefit from these job boosts.

http://www.greentraveller.co.uk/content/how-travel-ireland-without-flying

Kermit.de.frog

I agree but what we are seeing now is the froth being taken off unemployment but as we get down to 9% unemployment then you are hitting the buffer of three distinct groups.

1. Those in welfare traps that stand to lose financially from returning to work
2. Long term unemployed
3. Generational unemployment and those that have no intention of working

These are the core groups that will be more difficult to shift in to work or back to the workforce. Question is what percentage of the 10.4% make up those groups?

We will hit the wall eventually - hopefully it's mid single figures and not high single figures. It's easier to get unemployment from 15% to 10% than it is to get unemployment from 10% to 8%.

hfallada

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I agree but what we are seeing now is the froth being taken off unemployment but as we get down to 9% unemployment then you are hitting the buffer of three distinct groups.

1. Those in welfare traps that stand to lose financially from returning to work
2. Long term unemployed
3. Generational unemployment and those that have no intention of working

These are the core groups that will be more difficult to shift in to work or back to the workforce. Question is what percentage of the 10.4% make up those groups?

We will hit the wall eventually - hopefully it's mid single figures and not high single figures. It's easier to get unemployment from 15% to 10% than it is to get unemployment from 10% to 8%.

Well I think when we had 'full employment'. We had about 3% unemployment. So you can assume some of the 10%, never unemployed as they werent employed in the first place.

Hopefully we the economy is recovering and we have plenty of jobs. The Government will start to slash welfare and get people back to work. Even Labour is hinting that we need some serious welfare reforms eg more contributions to pensions, unemployment benefit. I cant imagine us having a huge amount of people no working if their welfare benefits were like the UK

Actually due to the multiplier effect. Its far easier to get UE to 8% than from 15% to 10%. The lower the UE rate, the higher the consumer confidence, people willingness to lend. There will be upward pressure on wages( more incentive to work).

dearg lady

hfallada wrote: »

Hopefully we the economy is recovering and we have plenty of jobs. The Government will start to slash welfare and get people back to work. Even Labour is hinting that we need some serious welfare reforms eg more contributions to pensions, unemployment benefit. I cant imagine us having a huge amount of people no working if their welfare benefits were like the UK
.

Unfortunately what will probably happen is they will put welfare UP, as they did the last time the economy was doing well. There's even talk of reinstating the Christmas 'bonus' already

hfallada

dearg lady wrote: »

Unfortunately what will probably happen is they will put welfare UP, as they did the last time the economy was doing well. There's even talk of reinstating the Christmas 'bonus' already

I cant see it happening TBH. With middle income earners pissed with the fact, they are paying huge amounts of tax and getting little in services back. While some on welfare are having a higher standard of living than most low income workers. The fact all the election promises are tax cuts and not the usual welfare increases. It looks like we might see some welfare cuts in the next few years

Ren2k7

hfallada wrote: »

I cant see it happening TBH. With middle income earners pissed with the fact, they are paying huge amounts of tax and getting little in services back. While some on welfare are having a higher standard of living than most low income workers. The fact all the election promises are tax cuts and not the usual welfare increases. It looks like we might see some welfare cuts in the next few years

Lol. Yeah good luck with that. Budget 2015 saw small SW increases FFS.

FreudianSlippers

hfallada wrote: »

I cant see it happening TBH. With middle income earners pissed with the fact, they are paying huge amounts of tax and getting little in services back. While some on welfare are having a higher standard of living than most low income workers. The fact all the election promises are tax cuts and not the usual welfare increases. It looks like we might see some welfare cuts in the next few years

I would vote for any party that cut Social Welfare and cut taxes. It would incentivise people to work rather than collect and allow us to more fairly distribute more support to those who are in genuine need.

ardmacha

Lots more pay generally, but feck all more if you serve the public
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/dan-obrien/pay-increases-are-finally-here-and-consumers-are-opening-their-wallets-again-31026036.html

OMD

ardmacha wrote: »

More pay, unless you serve the public
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/dan-obrien/pay-increases-are-finally-here-and-consumers-are-opening-their-wallets-again-31026036.html

The statistics you refer to also say public sector pay increased last year but hey why look at facts when bull**** smell better.

ardmacha

OMD wrote: »

The statistics you refer to also say public sector pay increased last year but hey why look at facts when bull**** smell better.

OK, I've edited my post to reflect the fact that there was a small, perhaps even statistically insignificant increase in PS pay, while general pay increased 7.5 times that amount.

Sheldons Brain

Dan O'Brien upbeat this week
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/dan-obrien/after-a-long-wait-normal-service-is-finally-about-to-resume-31030404.html

micosoft

Never thought I'd see this but the BBC News today....

Ireland's manufacturing sector buoys eurozone output

Manufacturing output in Ireland has risen to its highest level in more than 15 years, according to the Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).

Accelerated growth in both new orders and production pushed Ireland's PMI to 57.5 in February. A figure above 50 suggests expansion.

Overall eurozone manufacturing PMI held steady in February at 51.0.

France's manufacturing sector contracted to 47.6, the lowest score in the eurozone.

Manufacturing in the eurozone matched January's figure, even though new orders rose to a seven month-high.

Meanwhile, lower oil prices have reduced manufacturing input costs, said Markit.

'Key test'

Ireland's manufacturing growth seems to be resilient, said Investec's chief economist Philip O'Sullivan, but "any uncertainty ahead of the upcoming UK election - given that Ireland's closest neighbour has repeatedly been identified by manufacturers as a key source of demand - is likely to put that to the test".

Job creation in Ireland's manufacturing sector reached its highest since May 1998, Markit said.

Greece, France and Austria all saw their manufacturing sectors contract in February.

France's manufacturing PMI fell as sharp declines in output, new orders and employment weighed on the index.

"France is the most worrying, not just because it trails behind all other countries, but it is also the only country seeing a steepening downturn," said Markit's chief economist Chris Williamson.

Pretty astonishing that the Irish Economy has an impact on the entire Eurozone specifically on manufacturing and puts a lie to all those critics who would lead us to believe we are simply some tax haven with misleading stats.

keane2097

ardmacha wrote: »

OK, I've edited my post to reflect the fact that there was a small, perhaps even statistically insignificant increase in PS pay, while general pay increased 7.5 times that amount.

How significant is 7.5 times insignificant?

ardmacha

keane2097 wrote: »

How significant is 7.5 times insignificant?

Pretty significant. Private sector pay is clearly growing, PS pay is not.