Good economic news thread

Phoebas

ardmacha wrote: »

David McWilliams has called it

Yeah, but he doesn't have a snappy title for it, so it doesn't count.

Gumbo

Good news, I don't know........people currently queuing to buy new homes in Swords, not going on sale until 2pm Saturday!

Idbatterim

The alternative, wait and see prices rise another 25k per year + the interest it will ad and current rent. People have now decided its time to jump and whether you think they are crazy lemmings or right to go for it, once group think sets in, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy...

Villa05

The credit union for sourcing the deposit is being considered by some - but there is no bubble - Repeat until people believe it

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/home-economics-answering-your-property-questions-30545336.html

Gumbo

Idbatterim wrote: »

The alternative, wait and see prices rise another 25k per year + the interest it will ad and current rent. People have now decided its time to jump and whether you think they are crazy lemmings or right to go for it, once group think sets in, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy...

More people added to the que last night. I think they are right if the price is right and time is right, especially if looking for new build with such few new units coming to the market at the moment.

I went to view a house in Finglas the other day for a friend, and there was a que to get into the open viewing. This house needed about 50k put into it after purchase. It's mad out there alright.

mariaalice

Villa05 wrote: »

The credit union for sourcing the deposit is being considered by some - but there is no bubble - Repeat until people believe it

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/home-economics-answering-your-property-questions-30545336.html

Most credit union are members of the ICB and banks and building societies will check with the ICB before a mortgage offer is made it will show up very quickly if you are using a credit union loan as a deposit and you will be turned down for a mortgage. Things have become a lot different.

1huge1

Ireland must learn from Scandinavian recovery - Noonan
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/ireland-must-learn-from-scandinavian-recovery-noonan-30560608.html

He makes a good point, though I doubt Ireland has the patience to manage the economy like the Scandinavians, its not in our nature

Godge

More interest rate cuts

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0904/641354-ecb-meeting/

Good news for those on tracker loans and good news for those in debt. The bad news is that is shows there is significant worry about deflation.

micosoft

Purchasing Manufacturing Index very positive!

the groutch

Godge wrote: »

More interest rate cuts

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0904/641354-ecb-meeting/

Good news for those on tracker loans and good news for those in debt. The bad news is that is shows there is significant worry about deflation.

bad news for anyone on variable rate mortgages, as the variable rate will likely rise to cover the cost of tracker cuts.

Rightwing

CBs are lining economies up for a great depression. It's impossible to win with their policies, as the US exits its stimulus packages, that will be the acid test.

Valetta

the groutch wrote: »

bad news for anyone on variable rate mortgages, as the variable rate will likely rise to cover the cost of tracker cuts.

Banks are actually making money on most trackers now, as they can borrow the funds very cheaply.

I don't see variable rates increasing as competition is now hotting up between the banks.

Hopefully the regulator is keeping a sharp eye on them.

Sheldons Brain

1huge1 wrote: »

Ireland must learn from Scandinavian recovery - Noonan
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/ireland-must-learn-from-scandinavian-recovery-noonan-30560608.html

He makes a good point, though I doubt Ireland has the patience to manage the economy like the Scandinavians, its not in our nature

More likely he is paying lip service to one thing and doing another. The likes of Sweden has quite high levels of taxes, properly staffed public services, but those who work there are expected to perform, likewise it has generous welfare provision but people are not allowed remain unemployed for long periods without being strongly encouraged to work. Ireland has public services run on a political whim where there is no commitment to service and a welfare system where you get more the longer you are in it.

Gumbo

Sheldons Brain wrote: »

More likely he is paying lip service to one thing and doing another. The likes of Sweden has quite high levels of taxes, properly staffed public services, but those who work there are expected to perform, likewise it has generous welfare provision but people are not allowed remain unemployed for long periods without being strongly encouraged to work. Ireland has public services run on a political whim where there is no commitment to service and a welfare system where you get more the longer you are in it.

Jesus, I take offence to that. Some public servants actually have pride on what they do and tribe to help the public on every occasion. Why don't you tar everybody with the same brush there, might be handier for you!

Sheldons Brain

kceire wrote: »

Jesus, I take offence to that. Some public servants actually have pride on what they do and tribe to help the public on every occasion. Why don't you tar everybody with the same brush there, might be handier for you!

Please don't take offence, you have misunderstood what I said. I did not imply any lack of commitment on the part of individuals in the PS, quite the reverse. My reference to properly staffed public services was inspired by today's news that 9000 children at risk have no social worker, this is an example of the government deciding that particular children need a social worker, but failing to actual provide any staff. They have no shame about this, I don't expect Noonan to stand up on budget day and say that tax cuts would be nice but that 9000 children at risk are more important and that he is going to staff the service.

Sheldons Brain

Back to the late 90s?

THE economy grew by 1.5pc between April and June and 7.7pc year-on-year new figures show.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/budget-boost-as-economy-grows-by-over-7pc-so-far-this-year-30596909.html

"The CSO figures for the second quarter show that the Irish Economy grew by 7.7pc in GDP terms and by 9pc in GNP terms year on year," said Finance Minister Michael Noonan."

antoobrien

Sheldons Brain wrote: »

Back to the late 90s?

THE economy grew by 1.5pc between April and June and 7.7pc year-on-year new figures show.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/budget-boost-as-economy-grows-by-over-7pc-so-far-this-year-30596909.html

"The CSO figures for the second quarter show that the Irish Economy grew by 7.7pc in GDP terms and by 9pc in GNP terms year on year," said Finance Minister Michael Noonan."

Link to the CSO figures: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/na/quarterlynationalaccountsquarter22014/#.VBrPsvldXCk

Times commentary: http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-economy-now-growing-at-its-fastest-rate-in-seven-years-1.1933398

Godge

antoobrien wrote: »

Link to the CSO figures: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/na/quarterlynationalaccountsquarter22014/#.VBrPsvldXCk

Times commentary: http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-economy-now-growing-at-its-fastest-rate-in-seven-years-1.1933398

And rte

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0918/644662-cso-economy/


And seamus coffey


http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2014/09/18/quarterly-national-accounts-3/

Sierra Oscar

That economic news is fantastic. It can't be denied that economic recovery is well underway. The biggest task for the government is to ensure that the recovery is spread across society.

The left / oppose all parties will be in trouble if those figures continue over the next 18 months.

Godge

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

That economic news is fantastic. It can't be denied that economic recovery is well underway. The biggest task for the government is to ensure that the recovery is spread across society.

The left / oppose all parties will be in trouble if those figures continue over the next 18 months.

If those figures continue over the next 18 months, the next election will be very interesting.

Sierra Oscar

Godge wrote: »

If those figures continue over the next 18 months, the next election will be very interesting.

It sure will be. If those figures continue I can't really see any other outcome other than a return of the government. They will have reduced seats of course considering that GE2011 was a pretty exceptional election.

Rightwing

The huge levels of debt will keep a lid on things.

Godge

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

It sure will be. If those figures continue I can't really see any other outcome other than a return of the government. They will have reduced seats of course considering that GE2011 was a pretty exceptional election.

They will have reduced seats even if they repeated the GE2011 performance because of the reduced number of constituencies.

If you are right the big question will be who becomes the biggest opposition party.

Godge

Rightwing wrote: »

The huge levels of debt will keep a lid on things.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ireland/government-debt-to-gdp

123% ratio to GDP in 2013.



http://www.financedublin.com/debtclock.php

According to this, it is down to 107%.

It may well be lower by the end of the year, once the full GDP figures are in.

Jumboman

I asked this question in another thread.


Does anyone here think this is the beginning of the Celtic Tiger Mark 2 ?

fxotoole

Jumboman wrote: »

I asked this question in another thread.


Does anyone here think this is the beginning of the Celtic Tiger Mark 2 ?

I wouldn't say there's enough momentum there to call it Celtic Tiger Mark 2 just yet.

antoobrien

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The left / oppose all parties will be in trouble if those figures continue over the next 18 months.

Unfortunately they don't seem to have that problem, there were already calls to get rid of the water charges (which are badly needed if only to facilitate the cleaning up of the mess of a network we have).

I also heard of calls for the SW "Christmas Bonus" to be reinstated and the unions to be central in the jobbridge scheme (which it seems they want to kill anyways).

They're already forming a not so orderly queue for money we don't actually have yet.

Rightwing

Jumboman wrote: »

I asked this question in another thread.


Does anyone here think this is the beginning of the Celtic Tiger Mark 2 ?

No. Too much debt now at national and individual level.

Godge

Monthly dose of good news

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/1001/649219-live-register/

11.1%, below the EU average of 11.5% and still coming down.

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/1001/649128-manufacturing-pmi/

Manufacturing growing still, not quite as fast though.

Exchequer figures should be available in the next day or two.

Godge

http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/1001/649131-limerick-jobs/


More jobs, even some for Limerick!!!

Godge

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/1003/649731-central-bank/

And the good news keeps on rolling.

"The Central Bank has nearly doubled its prediction for economic growth this year, largely due to a higher than expected level of exports."

Rightwing

How can they get this is so badly wrong. Double their growth forecasts in 3 months ?

andrew

Rightwing wrote: »

How can they get this is so badly wrong. Double their growth forecasts in 3 months ?

Unexpectedly good export figures for the first half of the year. Usually, Export growth will track demand growth in the countries to whom we export. This time, export growth exceeded demand in these countries, which wouldn't have been anticipated. It'll probably revert to the mean in the next quarter.

Rightwing

andrew wrote: »

Unexpectedly good export figures for the first half of the year. Usually, Export growth will track demand growth in the countries to whom we export. This time, export growth exceeded demand in these countries, which wouldn't have been anticipated. It'll probably revert to the mean in the next quarter.

I think you are being overly kind to them Andrew. That's a massive miss.

andrew

Rightwing wrote: »

I think you are being overly kind to them Andrew. That's a massive miss.

I appreciate how incredibly difficult it is to forecast this kind of thing. I'd never expect a forecast to be anything other than a very general "this is the range of figures we're expecting" estimate. Maybe I just have lower expectations. In any case, as far as 'misses' go it's the largest upward revision the CBI has had, so it's not like it's a very regular thing to miss by that amount.

Rightwing

andrew wrote: »

I appreciate how incredibly difficult it is to forecast this kind of thing. I'd never expect a forecast to be anything other than a very general "this is the range of figures we're expecting" estimate. Maybe I just have lower expectations. In any case, as far as 'misses' go it's the largest upward revision the CBI has had, so it's not like it's a very regular thing to miss by that amount.

True enough, a bit like weather forecasting, not a whole lot of accuracy involved.

It's not just the Irish though, e.g.. I see the same in the US. Their forecasts for NFP & GDP can be shockingly wide off the mark.

andrew

Rightwing wrote: »

True enough, a bit like weather forecasting, not a whole lot of accuracy involved.

It's not just the Irish though, e.g.. I see the same in the US. Their forecasts for NFP & GDP can be shockingly wide off the mark.

Yeah, economic forecasting is very hit and miss. Mostly miss. Here's a really good FT article about why this can be case. Hopefully it's not behind a paywall.

Slozer

Can somebody tell me if illegal economic activity is being added to GDP under the new EU guidelines?

If so how much of a percentage is being added?

For instance, the huge drug haul off the coast within the past 2 weeks. Is this added to the GDP? if so, how much?

andrew

Slozer wrote: »

Can somebody tell me if illegal economic activity is being added to GDP under the new EU guidelines?

If so how much of a percentage is being added?

For instance, the huge drug haul off the coast within the past 2 weeks. Is this added to the GDP? if so, how much?

Black market activity is included due to the implementation of ESA 10. But previous GDP figures have been adjusted to take this into account, and so the forecast growth on previous year isn't because the black market is only now being taken into account.

The drug haul wouldn't be included because they weren't sold or consumed. Otherwise, they'd show up as individual consumption (and probably a bunch of other places too).

Godge

Rightwing wrote: »

How can they get this is so badly wrong. Double their growth forecasts in 3 months ?

i don't know. Maybe you can tell us.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=92421747&postcount=22

Can you define the not too distant future? Then maybe we can tell how much better at predicting you are.

Rightwing

Godge wrote: »

i don't know. Maybe you can tell us.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=92421747&postcount=22

Can you define the not too distant future? Then maybe we can tell how much better at predicting you are.

I told you on that thread, well within the next decade.

SupaNova2

Given that debt to gdp is often used as an indicator of sustainable debt, why add something to gdp calculation that will lower debt to gdp levels and give the false appearance of more sustainability? If drugs, prostitution etc. were legalised and taxed it would make more sense. I guess knowing the size of black market transactions can't hurt though, or maybe it can as government can see what tax is left on the table.

Godge

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/1007/650522-ibec-forecast/

"Employers group Ibec has upgraded its growth outlook for the year to 6.1% in GDP terms on the back of what it called "remarkably positive trends right across the economy".


If that is true, then it will do wonders for the debt/GDP ratio and the budget deficit.

AlmightyCushion

Godge wrote: »

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/1007/650522-ibec-forecast/

"Employers group Ibec has upgraded its growth outlook for the year to 6.1% in GDP terms on the back of what it called "remarkably positive trends right across the economy".


If that is true, then it will do wonders for the debt/GDP ratio and the budget deficit.

Ibec have been trying to get the government to cut taxes so it could be the case that they are putting out positive figures before the budget to put pressure on the government to reduce taxes.

Phoebas

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Ibec have been trying to get the government to cut taxes so it could be the case that they are putting out positive figures before the budget to put pressure on the government to reduce taxes.

Could be, but the Department of Finance are mirroring the view that it is a broad recovery, fuelled mainly by domestic demand. That's really good news.
They are predicting 4.7% growth, which is still pretty impressive.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-s-recovery-now-being-driven-by-domestic-demand-1.1955194

NIMAN

Can someone answer me this one?

I heard a guy from the ERSI on the radio the other day, saying he expects to see 5% growth this year and next for us. Fair enough, exports are booming apparently.

Well this morning on the Business News on Rising Time on RTE radio I listened to how the US, German, Japanese, Chinese and Brazilian economies are all showing poor enough data, and that they are downgrading some of their growth forecasts etc.

So if the worlds biggest economies are downgrading, how come a tiny country like us are claiming we are going to be booming the next couple of years. We need people to be buying what we're selling.

Could these 5% figures be about to go belly up over the next year or so?

Rightwing

NIMAN wrote: »

Can someone answer me this one?

I heard a guy from the ERSI on the radio the other day, saying he expects to see 5% growth this year and next for us. Fair enough, exports are booming apparently.

Well this morning on the Business News on Rising Time on RTE radio I listened to how the US, German, Japanese, Chinese and Brazilian economies are all showing poor enough data, and that they are downgrading some of their growth forecasts etc.

So if the worlds biggest economies are downgrading, how come a tiny country like us are claiming we are going to be booming the next couple of years. We need people to be buying what we're selling.

Could these 5% figures be about to go belly up over the next year or so? [/ QUOTE]

Of course they could. These punters (and that's all they are) are basically guessing.

Get Real

Rightwing wrote: »

NIMAN wrote: »

Can someone answer me this one?

I heard a guy from the ERSI on the radio the other day, saying he expects to see 5% growth this year and next for us. Fair enough, exports are booming apparently.

Well this morning on the Business News on Rising Time on RTE radio I listened to how the US, German, Japanese, Chinese and Brazilian economies are all showing poor enough data, and that they are downgrading some of their growth forecasts etc.

So if the worlds biggest economies are downgrading, how come a tiny country like us are claiming we are going to be booming the next couple of years. We need people to be buying what we're selling.

Could these 5% figures be about to go belly up over the next year or so? [/ QUOTE]

Of course they could. These punters (and that's all they are) are basically guessing.

What I don't get is that the current government criticized the previous one because they ignored warnings and cut taxes/increased spending at an unsustainable rate. They then excused this saying they've found a new way to run the economy.

While the current news is good news, the government are doing the exact same. We still have huge amounts of debt, and at the first sign of things looking good, its ideas being floated about:

Tax cuts

Reversal of public sector pay cuts

A phased reintroduction of the social welfare Christmas bonus

That we've "cracked" the boom bust cycle (a natural cycle in economics)

That Ireland will grow positively for the next ten years.


Now, if I get a bit more money in the next budget, I won't complain. But thats the problem, nobody will, then in 5 or ten years we'll be out protesting again should another recession arise. I say, keep it as is for now, see how it goes for another year or two, if they really cared and it wasn't just about votes.

Godge

Get Real wrote: »

What I don't get is that the current government criticized the previous one because they ignored warnings and cut taxes/increased spending at an unsustainable rate. They then excused this saying they've found a new way to run the economy.

While the current news is good news, the government are doing the exact same. We still have huge amounts of debt, and at the first sign of things looking good, its ideas being floated about:

Tax cuts

Reversal of public sector pay cuts

A phased reintroduction of the social welfare Christmas bonus

That we've "cracked" the boom bust cycle (a natural cycle in economics)

That Ireland will grow positively for the next ten years.


Now, if I get a bit more money in the next budget, I won't complain. But thats the problem, nobody will, then in 5 or ten years we'll be out protesting again should another recession arise. I say, keep it as is for now, see how it goes for another year or two, if they really cared and it wasn't just about votes.

It looks like the government will be able to do some or all of the above and still finish well within the Troika targets.

Godge

Rightwing wrote: »

Of course they could. These punters (and that's all they are) are basically guessing.

The ESRI, IBEC, Central Bank and the Department of Finance are all punters?