Good economic news thread

Godge

Rightwing wrote: »

Nonsense. You have to delve deeper to get a true picture.

Portugese youth unemployment is substantially up now (35%) that in 2010 (26%).
Someone getting 3 hours work comes off live register, the figures you quoted, that masks the real figures.

It's youth unemployment that has the EU shaking.

Portugal crashed later and harder than us and that explains the discrepancy.

Youth unemployment is still very high, but is falling from 35.6% to 32.2%.

Sheldons Brain

Godge wrote: »

In the last two months I have been surprised at the amount of new construction that has started. Office buildings, houses etc.

With the range of announcements with the web summit, the IT sector seems likely to employ more. The restoration of normality in construction will employ others and the multiplier effect will increase employment in retail, hospitality etc. Perhaps it is really 1994!

creedp

ardmacha wrote: »

Construction has been well below its wrong term trend. I imagine by next summer it will not be and this will bring people into employment. I suspect too the Xmas season may be better than some recent years with consequent temporary employment.

Talking to a builder who has just refurned from a 2 year stint in Canada and he was bemoaning the state of the industry here. He said the problem was the pay rates which wouldn't incentivise people off the dole. He said he has been talking to a few friends who are only getting 3 to 4 days work a week but won't come of the dole and work offiically until until pay rate improve dramatically. Probably skews the unemployment figures somewhat.

Godge

http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/1126/662688-unemployment-cso/

"New Central Statistics Office figures show that the number of people in employment is now at its highest level since the end of 2009."

"There was an annual increase in employment of 1.5% or 27,000 in the year to the third quarter of 2014, bringing total employment to 1,926,900."

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/number-of-people-at-work-up-again-but-rate-of-increase-eases-30776167.html

"The rise in employment is dominated by an increase in the numbers in a full time job, which has risen by 26,100. There was an increase of those in part-time work of 1,500"

The question was asked in this thread a couple of times as to whether the decrease in unemployment was due to emigration. Well these figures seem to answer this question conclusively. The number of jobs, real proper full-time jobs is on the increase and is steadily rising.

Long-term unemployment numbers are also down giving hope to everyone out there who wants a job.

ressem

Sheldons Brain wrote:

With the range of announcements with the web summit, the IT sector seems likely to employ more. The restoration of normality in construction will employ others and the multiplier effect will increase employment in retail, hospitality etc. Perhaps it is really 1994!

Seems to be scientific and profession, rather than IT. 5500 new construction jobs but

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/qnhs/quarterlynationalhouseholdsurveyquarter32014/ wrote:

The greatest rates of decline were recorded in the Information and communication (-3.3% or -2,700) and Industry (-1.3% or –3,200) sectors. See table 2 and figure 2 above.

I'm to be the grouch and parrot the finfacts blog on the figures.

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1028483.shtml

The key sectors contributing to growth have been hotels and restaurants (+7,900), professional and scientific (+7,800) and construction (+5,500)

• The official number unemployed is 239,500 with an unemployment rate of 11.1% - adding the 75,600 in public schemes gives a rate of 14.6%;
• ...
• The rise of 28,000 jobs in the 12 months to September 2014, comprises: 14,000 full-time employees; 4,000 part-time employees; 4,000 in one-person self employment; 3,000 in public schemes and a net of 1,000 in other self-employment.
• Since the current governing coalition came to power in 2011, 85,000 jobs have been added: 34,000 full-time employees have been added; 10,000 part-time staff; 27,000 in one-person self employment; 15,000 in public schemes and a net -1,000 in other categories.

Rightwing

Good news for many in that there's a massive fall in oil price. Brent crude down a whopping 7.2%, trading at just over $72 a barrell.

Kermit.de.frog

ressem wrote: »

Seems to be scientific and profession, rather than IT. 5500 new construction jobs but



I'm to be the grouch and parrot the finfacts blog on the figures.

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1028483.shtml

You could say the same thing about every other western country. They all do the exact same thing.

To be perfectly honest the guy that runs that site seems to have issues with Ireland in general. He never has anything positive to say. Everything has to be knocked and undermined.

I guess he has a chip on the shoulder. He doesn't even live here AFAIK.

Bloc Party!

Hi folks, I'm a bit stuck on an assignment I have to do. The topic is "Using the most recent ESRI quarterly report (www.esri.ie), Discuss the short term outlook for the Irish economy over the next year in relation to monetary sector developments" Im not to sure where to start with it. I know it might seem like laziness on my part but honestly have no clue which direction I'm going with it. Any small but of help would be greatly appreciated. Thanks

ardmacha

Tax up 8% on last year.
http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/tax-take-ahead-of-expectations-noonan-confirms-653152.html

AlmightyCushion

ardmacha wrote: »

Tax up 8% on last year.
http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/tax-take-ahead-of-expectations-noonan-confirms-653152.html

Does anyone know what is it based on projections? That's the really important bit. The article says it's up on projections but not by how much.

Saipanne

Bloc Party! wrote: »

Hi folks, I'm a bit stuck on an assignment I have to do. The topic is "Using the most recent ESRI quarterly report (www.esri.ie), Discuss the short term outlook for the Irish economy over the next year in relation to monetary sector developments" Im not to sure where to start with it. I know it might seem like laziness on my part but honestly have no clue which direction I'm going with it. Any small but of help would be greatly appreciated. Thanks

You need the Economics forum.

Sheldons Brain

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Does anyone know what is it based on projections? That's the really important bit. The article says it's up on projections but not by how much.

as per RTÉ, 3% up on projections

Exchequer figures for November were €35m (0.6%) ahead of target according to the Department of Finance, with almost €6.2bn taken in by the State last month.
This put the total tax take in the first 11 months of the year at almost €38.16bn, €1.13bn (3%) more than had been forecast in last year’s Budget.
Income tax take was the main driver of this excess, with €70m (2.7%) more taken in during the month than had been forecast.

AlmightyCushion

Sheldons Brain wrote: »

as per RTÉ, 3% up on projections

Exchequer figures for November were €35m (0.6%) ahead of target according to the Department of Finance, with almost €6.2bn taken in by the State last month.
This put the total tax take in the first 11 months of the year at almost €38.16bn, €1.13bn (3%) more than had been forecast in last year’s Budget.
Income tax take was the main driver of this excess, with €70m (2.7%) more taken in during the month than had been forecast.

That's great news. An extra billion more than we had planned is excellent. Hopefully that continues for the next few years.

Godge

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Does anyone know what is it based on projections? That's the really important bit. The article says it's up on projections but not by how much.

http://www.finance.gov.ie/sites/default/files/End%20November%20Net%20Voted%20Expenditure.pdf


here are the Expenditure Projections, slight overspend in Education, massive overspend in Health of half a billion (can Leo sort it?) and underspend everywhere else brings the total down to less than 200m overspend. Buggest savings are in Social Welfare because more people have jobs.

Down €1.6 bn year-on-year.


http://www.finance.gov.ie/sites/default/files/End%20November%20Exchequer%20Returns%20Information%20Note.pdf

Nearly all of the taxes are well above profile, more people working than expected, more people buying than expected and more properties being sold than expected.

By my calculations this means that having aimed for an Exchequer deficit of 4.8% at the start of the year, the Government will achieve a deficit of around 3.65%, well below target. Obviously same trends have to continue in December.

kefir32

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

That's great news. An extra billion more than we had planned is excellent. Hopefully that continues for the next few years.

yeah tax us out of existence :roll eyes: great news if there is efficiency and greater regard given to expenditure, theres always a first time i guess.

Saipanne

kefir32 wrote: »

yeah tax us out of existence :roll eyes: great news if there is efficiency and greater regard given to expenditure, theres always a first time i guess.

Boo, hiss.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

chopper6

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

That's great news. An extra billion more than we had planned is excellent. Hopefully that continues for the next few years.

Yes...more welfare christmas bonuses and overseas aid!

Rightwing

chopper6 wrote: »

Yes...more welfare christmas bonuses and overseas aid!

I'd like aid to be increased, places like Syria/Palestine need it.

BoJack Horseman

chopper6 wrote: »

Yes...more welfare christmas bonuses and overseas aid!

Is overseas aid being increased?

I thought it was remaining same as 2014 (which is a large reduction on 2009)

chopper6

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Is overseas aid being increased?

I thought it was remaining same as 2014 (which is a large reduction on 2009)

Its shouldnt exist at all.

Saipanne

chopper6 wrote: »

Its shouldnt exist at all.

Yeah, **** em! Grrrrr.

ardmacha

Rightwing wrote: »

I'd like aid to be increased, places like Syria/Palestine need it.

AS Rightwing says some places do need it and it is entirely appropriate to chip in for places like Sierra Leone where Ebola has broken out, I'd expect some international aid if the situation as reversed.

chopper6

ardmacha wrote: »

AS Rightwing says some places do need it and it is entirely appropriate to chip in for places like Sierra Leone where Ebola has broken out, I'd expect some international aid if the situation as reversed.

Ebola has been around Africa since 1976...why we should suddenly have to "chip in" now?

And what ties have we as a country got to Sierra Leone?

It's white man's guilt,nothing more

draiochtanois

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chopper6

draiochtanois wrote: »

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Rightwing

draiochtanois wrote: »

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Sounds like a poor article. There are a number of factors that have to be considered, e.g. oil companies will slash divis, oil companies will lay off several thousand workers particularly in US. A big fall in a commodity like oil is unwelcome. A gradual one is preferred.

draiochtanois

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ardmacha

chopper6 wrote: »

It's white man's guilt,nothing more

It isn't. If the people with Ebola were mostly white I would still expect us to chip in.

Godge

http://economic-incentives.blogspot.ie/2014/12/unemployment-rate-falls-below-30-year.html


"The current 10.7 per cent is the first time the rate has been below the average since February 2009 (when the rate of 10.2 per cent was below the then average of 10.4 per cent)"


Now that is interesting. By that measure the economy is above average at the moment.

Strange but true.

chopper6

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

chopper6

ardmacha wrote: »

It isn't. If the people with Ebola were mostly white I would still expect us to chip in.

Do you chip in for victims of Influenza here in Ireland?

BoJack Horseman

chopper6 wrote: »

Do you chip in for victims of Influenza here in Ireland?

No need.

Taxation delivers free flu vaccines to tens of thousands via the HSE.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

chopper6

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

No need.

Taxation delivers free flu vaccines to tens of thousands via the HSE.

Yes but anybody foolish enough to be working for a living has to pay for it out of their own pocket.

Kermit.de.frog

Credit rating upped.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/standard-poor-s-upgrades-ireland-s-debt-1.2027575

Voltex

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Credit rating upped.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/standard-poor-s-upgrades-ireland-s-debt-1.2027575

Is this a good thing?
If so why?
Should the Irish Government have improved conditions to borrow more?

We really need to get our heads around the State spending and borrowing less...not getting excited about having our borrowing credentials increased.

AlmightyCushion

Voltex wrote: »

Is this a good thing?
If so why?
Should the Irish Government have improved conditions to borrow more?

We really need to get our heads around the State spending and borrowing less...not getting excited about having our borrowing credentials increased.

It should reduce the interest rate we pay on new bonds.

Voltex

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

It should reduce the interest rate we pay on new bonds.

New bonds=new borrowing.
Fiscal mismanagement got us into the mess we're in. We know the effect pro cyclical budgets had on the states revenue streams up to 2007. Yet the minute the economy starts to show signs of recovery, we start the ball rolling again...with mismanagement.

Its pretty clear to me that politics and economics should never meet!!

Phoebas

Voltex wrote: »

New bonds=new borrowing.

New bonds is by and large rolling over old debt these days.

Some people go out of their way to turn positives into negatives.

Voltex

Phoebas wrote: »

New bonds is by and large rolling over old debt these days.

Some people go out of their way to turn positives into negatives.

And the Government will borrow how much next year?
So you get an increase on your credit limit...are you gonna celebrate that?
Should you spend more just because your credit line has been extended?

Sheldons Brain

Some people go out of their way to turn positives into negatives.

Facts etc are not relevant to this, some posts just aim to oppose.

Voltex wrote: »

And the Government will borrow how much next year?
So you get an increase on your credit limit...are you gonna celebrate that?
Should you spend more just because your credit line has been extended?

The credit limit has not been increased, the interest rate has dropped.

Phoebas

Voltex wrote: »

And the Government will borrow how much next year?
So you get an increase on your credit limit...are you gonna celebrate that?
Should you spend more just because your credit line has been extended?

Its not an increase in a credit limit, its a decrease in the cost of credit.

Are you being wilfully ignorant?

AlmightyCushion

Voltex wrote: »

New bonds=new borrowing.
Fiscal mismanagement got us into the mess we're in. We know the effect pro cyclical budgets had on the states revenue streams up to 2007. Yet the minute the economy starts to show signs of recovery, we start the ball rolling again...with mismanagement.

Its pretty clear to me that politics and economics should never meet!!

Even if our national debt never increased past what it currently is a reduction in our interest rates would be beneficial. It doesn't necessarily mean we can borrow more, it means that the cost of borrowing is less.

We were still able to borrow when we were given junk status, it just cost us a lot more.

Voltex

Sheldons Brain wrote: »

Facts etc are not relevant to this, some posts just aim to oppose.



The credit limit has not been increased, the interest rate has dropped.

What I oppose is the State spending more than it takes in.
What I oppose is the State spending for political gain.
What I oppose is the State borrowing more than it already has
What I think is correct is smaller spending, smaller government, smaller taxes.

Show me an economy that has improved the lot of the ordinary folk with a system of continuous expansion of State spending?

The credit limit post was analogous not descriptive.

Godge

Voltex wrote: »

What I oppose is the State spending more than it takes in.
What I oppose is the State spending for political gain.
What I oppose is the State borrowing more than it already has
What I think is correct is smaller spending, smaller government, smaller taxes.

Show me an economy that has improved the lot of the ordinary folk with a system of continuous expansion of State spending?

The credit limit post was analogous not descriptive.

You miss the point completely.

Assume Ireland has a balanced budget in 2016 and has no need to borrow for current spending. You are now assuming that this means the bond rate going down has no effect on us.

You are wrong.

Whenever we borrowed money in the past we borrowed for a number of years. So for example, €10bn may have been borrowed for five years and is due to be repaid in 2016. Now we only have a balanced budget in 2016, we don't have a €10bn surplus. So that €10bn will be rolled over (as government debt has been rolled over for over a century).

Now this is where the interest rate becomes important. Say the interest rate on that debt was 4%, equivalent to €400m. Now if the interest rate now is 5%, the interest rate on the rolled over debt goes up to €500m and we now have a deficit of €100m.

On the other hand if the interest rate is now 2%, we have a surplus of €200m.

So the interest rate on bonds does matter and the lower the better.

Godge

Voltex wrote: »

Show me an economy that has improved the lot of the ordinary folk with a system of continuous expansion of State spending?

.

Every State in the world has continually expanded State spending. Living standards have risen over the last 50 years in every state.

So the answer to your question is everywhere except perhaps North Korea where they have cut State spending and starved half their population.

Show me a State which now spends less money than in 1950 and also has a higher standard of living.

Sheldons Brain

Voltex wrote: »

What I oppose is the State spending more than it takes in.
What I oppose is the State spending for political gain.
What I oppose is the State borrowing more than it already has
What I think is correct is smaller spending, smaller government, smaller taxes.

Show me an economy that has improved the lot of the ordinary folk with a system of continuous expansion of State spending?

The credit limit post was analogous not descriptive.

All very fine, but this credit upgrade reflects the belief that Ireland will be borrowing less in the future than expected, so I am not sure why you are griping about it.

Amirani

Voltex wrote: »

What I oppose is the State spending more than it takes in.
What I oppose is the State spending for political gain.
What I oppose is the State borrowing more than it already has
What I think is correct is smaller spending, smaller government, smaller taxes.

Fine, so you deal with the structural deficit in your general government balance. Still you're going to have periods when you spend more than you take in, hopefully because of investment related spending that will increase to future growth capacity of the country. Hence you need to borrow. Having a good credit rating makes this cheaper. That's a good thing.

If you disagree with the State borrowing at all (and not just to plug structural deficits), then you don't understand economics.

Rightwing

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the bond markets at present. Either that, or the equity market is completely out of sync.