What times you got for Mo and Bekele?

tomdempsey200

bekele sunday
mo the following weekend

bekele 2-07

mo 2-05

rainbow kirby

I can't see Mo going faster than 2:07-2:08 or winning tbh. I think he's more suited to a championship-style race (like Stephen Kiprotich) than what will yet again end up as an outright time trial.

ecoli

Bekele will have the race to himself, pace makers and relatively easier competition and as such he will be able to play to his strengths. I would imagine that a 2.05 mid will be on the cards here. He has proven he can run well on roads but I think he will ultimately take a few to get it right

Mo on the other hand I don't think will be suited to the marathon especially in such a deep field and I would say 2.07/2.08 would be a good performance from him. It will be new territory among the top distance runners in the world (no offence to the 10k guys but there is definitely a lack of depth in the current generation here due to the financial incentives of the marathon causing a mass migration of talent)

robinph

Bekele doesn't have anyone to chase so could see him getting the slower time.

But London is so stacked that I'm not sure if it will be a time trial, so many of them are capable of fast times that they could just be too scared of going off for the time. If they were to work together though then it would be an awesome time they could produce, but to do that they all have to accept that they will loose in the final sprint for the line. And I don't mean they would loose to Mo, just that for them to get a super fast time they ave to work together, and to work together each of them has to accept they will more than likely get beaten.

Of course you could have them going off at daft speed for the 1st half like last year when they were probably trying to scare Mo, but then they all blew up.

ecoli

robinph wrote: »

Of course you could have them going off at daft speed for the 1st half like last year when they were probably trying to scare Mo, but then they all blew up.

To be honest I doubt Mo will be more than an after though to the likes of Kipsang and the Mutai's. He has yet to prove himself as a time trialer which is effectively what it will be given the organisers want a record (and the presence of pace makers being more prevalent in marathon running.

Mo should place decently enough if he is smart and the pace is hot (alot of top 20 runners last year benefited from people dying a death in the second half)

robinph

ecoli wrote: »

To be honest I doubt Mo will be more than an after though to the likes of Kipsang and the Mutai's. He has yet to prove himself as a time trialer which is effectively what it will be given the organisers want a record (and the presence of pace makers being more prevalent in marathon running.

Mo should place decently enough if he is smart and the pace is hot (alot of top 20 runners last year benefited from people dying a death in the second half)

The only person who will be thinking that Mo stands a chance will be Brendan Foster, can already hear Cram doing rolleyes every time Foster speaks about Mo during the commentary. Think I'll have to watch it back afterwards on mute so that I don't throw anything at the TV.

rovers_runner

Bekele: 2:06
Farrah: 2:10

Farrah will get roasted between 16-20, the over and back attacking will leave him in two minds on the day, I reckon he needs the practice to get these sort of tactics right.

Bekele will coast home if fit, but the lack of competition might take the bite out of him.

tomdempsey200

rovers_runner wrote: »

the over and back attacking will leave him in two minds on the day

not so sure

he usually has a smart gameplan and sticks to it

ecoli

rovers_runner wrote: »

Bekele: 2:06
Farrah: 2:10

Farrah will get roasted between 16-20, the over and back attacking will leave him in two minds on the day, I reckon he needs the practice to get these sort of tactics right.

Bekele will coast home if fit, but the lack of competition might take the bite out of him.

People keep mentioning lack of competition but top five last year were sub 2.07 and the course record is 2.05.10 not to mention having pace makers to set up fast race. It't not gonna be WR pace or anythin but Bekele will most likely have to go 2.05-2.06 to win and even then he wont be the only one around this mark

Abdullah Shami has ran sub 2.06 in his last two marathons as well as Mark Kiptoo who debuted last year in 2.06.16 and you also have Mule Wasihun who ran 60.08 in the half this year who is debuting.

As for Farah I don't think it is simply getting the tactics right personally I don't think he has the characteristics to challenge the top guys over the marathon (however I have been wrong about Farah in the past)

drquirky

Bekele DNF
Mo 2:09 but with Foster claiming some ridiculous British " moral victory"

tomdempsey200

european or a British record would be enough to set foster off

what time are those records?

2-06 and 2-07 I would hazard a guess..

ecoli

tomdempsey200 wrote: »

european or a British record would be enough to set foster off

what time are those records?

2-06 and 2-07 I would hazard a guess..

British 2.07.13
European 2.06.36

Reckon British is probably the realistic target

theboyblunder

Bekele - no clue
Farah - 2:05. Maybe 2:04.

Marathon mystique is being rapidly replaced by cold hard science. Novices can go 2:06 and faster. Salazar was a world record holder and is into meticulous preparation. Farah will know exactly what to do and where he should be at all times. Im not a big fan, but he could run very well.

tomdempsey200

theboyblunder wrote: »

Bekele - no clue
Farah - 2:05. Maybe 2:04.

Marathon mystique is being rapidly replaced by cold hard science. Novices can go 2:06 and faster. Salazar was a world record holder and is into meticulous preparation. Farah will know exactly what to do and where he should be attending all times. Im not a big fan, but he could run very well.

does Salazar have much input to his preparation?

mo is in kenya

ecoli

tomdempsey200 wrote: »

does Salazar have much input to his preparation?

mo is in kenya

Mo is still being coach by Salazar. He goes over to Kenya every year as part of training (although admittedly never this long)

drquirky

tomdempsey200 wrote: »

does Salazar have much input to his preparation?

mo is in kenya

Salazar was with Mo in Kenya last week per his FB page

ecoli

theboyblunder wrote: »

Bekele - no clue
Farah - 2:05. Maybe 2:04.

Marathon mystique is being rapidly replaced by cold hard science. Novices can go 2:06 and faster. Salazar was a world record holder and is into meticulous preparation. Farah will know exactly what to do and where he should be at all times. Im not a big fan, but he could run very well.

I can see your point but with Mo there are a few factors to consider

- There are plenty 2.06 debuts these days but majority of these are teens/ early 20s going straight to the marathon as opposed runners in the twilight of their career transitioning from track (where he was a predominantly 1500-5000 style runner that used this to his advantage in Championships in the 10,000m)

- Salazar has ran WR at the distance but marathon running has completely changed in the last 8 years. His track record with the likes of Ritz and Goucher are particular examples who come to mind who improved greatly over shorter distances but not so much at the marathon.

- Salazar has said that they have had to change his running bio-mechanics from his usual track style to adjust to the roads. This is the first time he has had to do this and any change of form can be a minefield (although his expertise with regards track bio-mechanics have produced great results there is no denying that)

- Shorter distance runners don't always transition well to longer. Z Tadese is an example of such being WR at Half marathon and not being able to crack the marathon. Mo's success has been from his 1500 speed. His 10k PB while very solid would not indicate ever challenging. His PB at HM was on a net downhill course from last year and even that would not rank him in top 20 times last year

rom

Both DNF

ecoli

rom wrote: »

Both DNF

Not a chance with Mo. His appearance fee too high to make it an option;)

theboyblunder

PS should have added on the minus column that ive read his book and in my opinion Salazar is a little bit

nobody told me

Is the Paris marathon on Eurosport?

ecoli

nobody told me wrote: »

Is the Paris marathon on Eurosport?

British Eurosport 2 @ 7.30am

tunguska

ecoli wrote: »

British 2.07.13
European 2.06.36

Reckon British is probably the realistic target

Its amazing to think how that record was set by Steve Jones in 1985 and no British athlete has gone near that since the 80s. He was a an absolute beast though and holding down a day job as an aircraft technician with the RAF makes what he did even more impressive.
It would be something if Farah could break the record although I think if he goes off like a scolded cat and tries to stay with the boys who tear off and run the first half in 61mins then I think he'll blow up. He always races smart on the track though so I'd say he wont do anything stupid. If he holds his **** together I'd say he'll do 2:06.

dna_leri

Both of them - 2:06 - Mo faster and a European record.

Chivito550

I'd love nothing more than to see Farah blow up, but I fear we will see a European record as dna_leri mentioned.

rovers_runner

tomdempsey200 wrote: »

not so sure

he usually has a smart gameplan and sticks to it

Farah is great at that when there is 2500-1500 left in a race.
Different story when you have groups of two or three darting off as you turn a corner with 8 miles left to run....
Plus he won't have his buddy to block any attacks, the elites race track is only really two/three lanes wide for a distance race, the road is a different story altogether.

yaboya1

Can't wait for this race. So many athlete's I'm looking forward to following: Kipsaeng, Mutai x 2, Kebede, Farah, Kiprotich, Abshero, TRR, Gavlor, RedRunner, menoscemo etc.

morceli

Can't wait for this race hope the go off at an insane pace to see how mo reacts. Still not sure what to expect from him will he try and run an even race and pick off people over the second half , or try and win the race.

tomdempsey200

morceli wrote: »

Can't wait for this race hope the go off at an insane pace to see how mo reacts. Still not sure what to expect from him will he try and run an even race and pick off people over the second half , or try and win the race.

i'm thinking he's got his goal pace carefully planned

that's the way he operates

will he be able to stick to it

tomdempsey200

some speculation that bekele might surprise a few people tomorrow with a fast time

it may turn out that he goes faester than mo

ecoli

tomdempsey200 wrote: »

some speculation that bekele might surprise a few people tomorrow with a fast time

it may turn out that he goes faester than mo

I think the majority of people expect him to (outside of the British media)

When you look at it why wouldn't he?

- WR at 10k,
- great XC record (which lends itself to the attributes of marathon running to an extent),
-ran a faster time in the same year that Mo set his PB and beat Mo in HM last year.
- Has also ran World leads on the roads over 10k (Great Ireland Run 2012 IIRC) indicating he is well capable of transitioning from track

Personally I am thinking his main aim tomorrow will be course record at best (which would be a great debut) but more likely 2.06

tomdempsey200

race underway now..

Finnt

tomdempsey200 wrote: »

race underway now..

Can you get it on sky?

tomdempsey200

Finnt wrote: »

Can you get it on sky?

I'm watching it on eurosport

tomdempsey200

62-09 halfway

quite quick

pistol_75

Bekele through halfway in 62:09

ecoli

tomdempsey200 wrote: »

62-09 halfway

quite quick

1st half the quicker and will also have to deal with head wind later on. Still looking good though and that course record looks in threat

ThePiedPiper

Mixed memories of that Paris race. But, looking at it now, definitely one I'd love to do again. Beautiful course.

Bekele looks a good fit for the marathon, would love to see him going under 2:05 in it today. Fastest debut ever potentially?

robinph

The commentators are annoying me with their talk of the masses not being interested in running the same race as the elites and only there for a goody bag and nice days out, and then that the guys running beside the elite women are only there to get on telly.

Not as bad as Foster admittedly and they do actually know the names of the elites that are running.

tomdempsey200

road pizza

never heard that before

ThePiedPiper

Strange to see him hitting the front so early?

robinph

tomdempsey200 wrote: »

road pizza

never heard that before

Certainly not in terms of running, maybe in relation to drunkenness.

ThePiedPiper

Kenny playing games with us? If the GNR is anything to go by, he'll be trying to get the chasers to come with him, giving them a sniff. Very interesting race, more enjoyable than the likes of a Berlin time trial.

tomdempsey200

looking like a phenomenonal debut

ThePiedPiper

Any split times anywhere? Been trawling all over the paris marathon website to no avail?

ThePiedPiper

$hit, are the wheels coming off?

ecoli

RunForestRun wrote: »

$hit, are the wheels coming off?

Still moving well reckon he weathered the story and has managed to stay at pace he ran between 25k and 30k

TRR

What is his projected finish? Is he solo or has he got company?

ThePiedPiper

2:04 still on, but looking a bit uncomfortable.

ThePiedPiper

All on his own, about 45-60 seconds ahead of Tolo, been on his own from about 30km

ecoli

TRR wrote: »

What is his projected finish? Is he solo or has he got company?

Looking like about 2.04.40ish pace atm has broken away himself