Repossesions 2014

gmisk

http://www.thejournal.ie/aib-mortgage-arrears-legal-action-1406506-Apr2014/
AIB has begun legal proceedings with thousands of customers in mortgage arrears



http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0409/607741-finance-committee/
Permanent TSB expects to repossess between 2,000 and 4,000 homes



Sounds like there are some repossessions en route.
Could this affect prices?

Mr.McLovin

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/aib-taking-aggressive-stance-against-buy-to-let-mortgages-in-arrears-30170891.html

AIB is taking an "aggressive stance" in relation to buy to let mortgages in arrears, the Dail Finance Committee has been told.

TD Kieran O'Donnell said an estimate by the bank that 80pc of 2,570 investment mortgages in deep arrears will be repossessed suggests an "aggressive" approach

about bloody time...


affect prices? - no I don't think so, it depends where the properties are but if anything it might dampen things but it certainly wont regress prices

The_Conductor

According to Ulster Bank in the Oireachtas today, they expect to repossess in the region of 1,800 BTL properties.

Looks like less than 10k properties will be repossessed in total.........

stevedublin

The_Conductor wrote: »

According to Ulster Bank in the Oireachtas today, they expect to repossess in the region of 1,800 BTL properties.

Looks like less than 10k properties will be repossessed in total.........

There are currently about 26,000 home for sale on myhome.ie, the sale of 10k properties over the course of the year would be bound to have an impact on prices.

jmayo

The_Conductor wrote: »

According to Ulster Bank in the Oireachtas today, they expect to repossess in the region of 1,800 BTL properties.

Looks like less than 10k properties will be repossessed in total.........

I came across a nugget somewhere that only 700 odd repossessions have occurred in Ireland in the last 10 odd years.

Can someone please confirm or deny this ?

Why do I think this is AIB telling the politicans, and by extension the taxpayers, something in public that can't really be proven in private ?

Yes I am cynical especially when it concerns said bank.

Goose_Hyypia

What are the chances of the banks releasing all these homes anyway?

They will hold on to the homes and stagger their released onto the market so not to affect prices.

The_Conductor

Goose_Hyypia wrote: »

What are the chances of the banks releasing all these homes anyway?

They will hold on to the homes and stagger their released onto the market so not to affect prices.

Its more that it'll take them a year or two to bring the cases through court- they can be quite time consuming- so they're not going to hit the market together, for purely administrative reasons

Zamboni

The_Conductor wrote: »

Its more that it'll take them a year or two to bring the cases through court- they can be quite time consuming- so they're not going to hit the market together, for purely administrative reasons

Which really begs the glaring question - Why does anybody pay their mortgage?
The banks really have no meaningful recourse.

The_Conductor

Zamboni wrote: »

Which really begs the glaring question - Why does anybody pay their mortgage?
The banks really have no meaningful recourse.

This very point keeps getting hammered home in the Oireachtas committees- and has come up several times in the last week alone. The banks have very little recourse- and there is damn little reason for otherwise law abiding citizens to pay their debts- because there appears to be no reprecussions if they don't. On the contrary- many of them are perceived to be getting perverse incentives- for not paying their debts- which is just galling for those who do make a genuine effort. Certainly, there are many people in genuine trouble- however, it would appear there is an even larger cohort of people gaming the system...........

Zamboni

The_Conductor wrote: »

This very point keeps getting hammered home in the Oireachtas committees- and has come up several times in the last week alone. The banks have very little recourse- and there is damn little reason for otherwise law abiding citizens to pay their debts- because there appears to be no reprecussions if they don't. On the contrary- many of them are perceived to be getting perverse incentives- for not paying their debts- which is just galling for those who do make a genuine effort. Certainly, there are many people in genuine trouble- however, it would appear there is an even larger cohort of people gaming the system...........

So to be facetious for a moment...
The message for the next generation of house buyers is this;

1. Go to AIB
2. Get the biggest mortgage you can possibly get.
3. Pay back €500 a month religiously (regardless of actual monthly repayment).
4. Sit back and enjoy life knowing that you will never lose your house.

Eldarion

He noted that the process was “very, very complex … at the moment, it’s just not functioning”. He added that the about 600 of the 1,100 customers offered split mortgages were receive debt write-down of some sort.

My god that's infuriating. :mad:

toughapple

jmayo wrote: »

I came across a nugget somewhere that only 700 odd repossessions have occurred in Ireland in the last 10 odd years.

Can someone please confirm or deny this ?

Why do I think this is AIB telling the politicans, and by extension the taxpayers, something in public that can't really be proven in private ?

Yes I am cynical especially when it concerns said bank.

I din't think that includes receiverships, or situations where the property was sold voluntarily (keys handed back) are forced sales where the owner was told to sell. The statistics are always only the tip of the iceberg.

who_ru

Debt write down has become acceptable to AIB, anathema to BOI, nobody knows what PTSB is doing in this regard, same for Ulster bank.

There is no transparency whatsoever to the AIB debt write down process, could be employees getting it wholesale, friends + relatives of management getting it. Nobody knows and will never know as the govt has washed its hands of this process.

So really it's good news for AIB mortgage holders in large negative equity, deals are being done so why not game the system a bit and secure a write down. Why would you bother paying the full mortgage to AIB now?

As for the other mortgage holders in major negative equity there is still hope as ALL politicians and political parties are on the side of the non paying mortgage holder. It's official policy, "we must do all we can to help people stay in their homes" has become the most repeated phrase in political life in Ireland over the last 5 or 6 years.

As a matter of fact why would a potential customer looking for a mortgage even consider BOI now since they know in advance this bank will not do write downs? Surely AIB will become the dominant player in the mortgage market now. Is this why BOI introduced their gimmick of "shure we'll pay your stamp duty and all like'.

jmayo

toughapple wrote: »

I din't think that includes receiverships, or situations where the property was sold voluntarily (keys handed back) are forced sales where the owner was told to sell. The statistics are always only the tip of the iceberg.

Even so we should have had a much higher rate of repossessions to match the amount of mortgages that are not being serviced.
Even if the voluntary handovers and forced sales are added in it still is probably a pretty small number in comparison to the mortgages in arrears.

And we also know, anecdotally as well as just looking at some of the properties on sale for years with no appreciably price drops, that there bank initated forced sales that have never been sold.

jmayo

who_ru wrote: »

Debt write down has become acceptable to AIB, anathema to BOI, nobody knows what PTSB is doing in this regard, same for Ulster bank.

There is no transparency whatsoever to the AIB debt write down process, could be employees getting it wholesale, friends + relatives of management getting it. Nobody knows and will never know as the govt has washed its hands of this process.

So really it's good news for AIB mortgage holders in large negative equity, deals are being done so why not game the system a bit and secure a write down. Why would you bother paying the full mortgage to AIB now?

As for the other mortgage holders in major negative equity there is still hope as ALL politicians and political parties are on the side of the non paying mortgage holder. It's official policy, "we must do all we can to help people stay in their homes" has become the most repeated phrase in political life in Ireland over the last 5 or 6 years.

As a matter of fact why would a potential customer looking for a mortgage even consider BOI now since they know in advance this bank will not do write downs? Surely AIB will become the dominant player in the mortgage market now. Is this why BOI introduced their gimmick of "shure we'll pay your stamp duty and all like'.

I have never banked with AIB all my adult life.
And during that time their numerous incidents of chicanery and downright corruption have copper fastened by opinion that that bank is inherently corrupt.

The other banks, particularly the way Anglo and INBS turned out, might not be much better or even worse, but there has always been a stench associated with AIB.

The taxpayer had to bail out them out in the 80s when their insurance arm ICI London branch was run by a huge risk taker.
Maybe he was unlucky a space shuttle hit the dust and that there were bush fires in Australia, but he should have offloaded some of the risks.
Either way it cost the state about £400 million.

Then we had another one going off the reservation when rogue trader, John Rusnack brought about losses of nearly $700m (€533m) at AIB’s Allfirst US subsidiary.

Then we had the whole dirt avoidance scheme, granted they weren't the only ones.

Then we have had numerous overcharging controversies with everything from foreign exchange transactions to students been screwed over.
Then we had them actually not alone screwing their own internal auditior, but using the regulatory arms of the state to apply pressure on him because he dared raise the point they were screwing their own customers.

Then we had the directors making use of tax havens in the Caribean to feather their own nest.

Then we had their stockbroking offshoot screwing their customers.
Goodbody continually issued "Buy" recommendations for its parent AIB even though it was going down the toilet.
Even worse they used Client Discretionary mandates to invest the clients money in AIB.

Eugene McErlean, the aforementioned auditor that AIB got the first financial regulator liam o'reilly to put the squeeze on, also revealed that the broker illegally traded AIB Shares, through offshore blacklisted tax havens Nevis and Vanuatu.

And I know some will say I have a habit of always posting this with reference to AIB, but people need to be reminded who and what we are delaing with here.

Ipso

jmayo wrote: »

I have never banked with AIB all my adult life.
And during that time their numerous incidents of chicanery and downright corruption have copper fastened by opinion that that bank is inherently corrupt.

The other banks, particularly the way Anglo and INBS turned out, might not be much better or even worse, but there has always been a stench associated with AIB.

The taxpayer had to bail out them out in the 80s when their insurance arm ICI London branch was run by a huge risk taker.
Maybe he was unlucky a space shuttle hit the dust and that there were bush fires in Australia, but he should have offloaded some of the risks.
Either way it cost the state about £400 million.

Then we had another one going off the reservation when rogue trader, John Rusnack brought about losses of nearly $700m (€533m) at AIB’s Allfirst US subsidiary.

Then we had the whole dirt avoidance scheme, granted they weren't the only ones.

Then we have had numerous overcharging controversies with everything from foreign exchange transactions to students been screwed over.
Then we had them actually not alone screwing their own internal auditior, but using the regulatory arms of the state to apply pressure on him because he dared raise the point they were screwing their own customers.

Then we had the directors making use of tax havens in the Caribean to feather their own nest.

Then we had their stockbroking offshoot screwing their customers.
Goodbody continually issued "Buy" recommendations for its parent AIB even though it was going down the toilet.
Even worse they used Client Discretionary mandates to invest the clients money in AIB.

Eugene McErlean, the aforementioned auditor that AIB got the first financial regulator liam o'reilly to put the squeeze on, also revealed that the broker illegally traded AIB Shares, through offshore blacklisted tax havens Nevis and Vanuatu.

And I know some will say I have a habit of always posting this with reference to AIB, but people need to be reminded who and what we are delaing with here.

But apart from that they're grand.
Seriously, reading that might make me finally get around to closing my account with them.

I think this will effect prices outside dublin anyway, as in it will stop prices rising until these and other houses which are owned by banks are sold

if you have an apartment or house in a small estate you think you could get €120,000 in a year or so and AIB and TSB then takes possesion of two around the corner which will probally only sell for €60,000,

I know a apartment complex where the bank already has 4 and will probally take more as there all rented accomodation until theses are sold prices are going down if nothing

Villa05

limerick and wateford and any other area that has lost alot of jobs will be affected.

Sjgnificant price drops ahead in areas that are currently falling

The_Conductor

Its funny how Michael Noonan seems to think that because Dublin prices are now 47% below peak- that prices can't fall any further........ That is unless he is deliberately playing to the public- as he seems a bit too intelligent to believe that nonsense.......

Zamboni

The_Conductor wrote: »

Its funny how Michael Noonan seems to think that because Dublin prices are now 47% below peak- that prices can't fall any further........ That is unless he is deliberately playing to the public- as he seems a bit too intelligent to believe that nonsense.......

Noonan is no idiot - he is referencing the peak price (which he knows has no bearing on current/future prices) because the populace do not have the ability to think critically.

When a minister of finance feels the need to come out in public and says there is no bubble - you can absolutely rest assure that there is.

Villa05

Dont belive it untill it had been officially denied was the line used when the banks were falling like dominos

Its like a loop in a software, program continually making the same mistake over and over again.

jay0109

It seems to take about 5 years + to repossess in this well run country of ours
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-an ... -1.1757774

A court in Tralee has heard how in several cases where financial institutions were applying for possession of property, there had been little or no co-operation from mortgage holders - even on relatively small mortgage repayments.
The County Registrar’s court also heard how financial institutions were finding it difficult to serve legal papers on mortgagees, and some people were deliberately “evading” the bank’s legal agents.
A significant number of defendants made no appearance and were not legally represented.....
In the case of a family home in a north Kerry village on the Shannon estuary, nothing was now being paid off a €32,554 debt. The the last payment, for €25, had been made in April 2009.....
EBS Ltd were granted possession of a house sold in 2006 to a single lady, again in a north Kerry village. The arrears went back to 2009 and amounted to €39,156. Repayments were €767 per month on the €150,000 loan, and the house had been valued at €205,000 originally.
The woman was now unemployed and was “not co-operating at all”, the court was told.

mrwhite2

I spoke to an accountant friend who was involved in brokering 3 debt write downs. He said 2 hadn't engaged with the bank and had moved assets around got big right downs. The client who kept struggling to just pay the morgage got nothing. The fact they had tried for years counted against them.

downwithit

From viewing (a lot) of houses over the last 6 month and talking to (a lot) of agents in my experience I would say that over half the house I have viewed in the Dublin region have been bank sales, so for sure there are already hundreds of them on the market. You can see it is having no effect on prices. The search seems to just be getting more infuriating

stevedublin

I just met an old schoolfriend (drug addict now, very sad), who said that an alien from outer space confidentially visited him last night and the alien said that other aliens are VERY interested in investing in property in Dublin.
They will be landing their spaceship on the top of 3 rock very soon and will come down into Dublin buying up everything as they go. This will bring the price out of the budget of native Dubliners.
The alien doesn't want word to get out to too many people as they want prices to remain low until they arrive.

downwithit

They won't have much choice with less than 1500 3 and 4 bed properties in the whole of Dublin currently on sale

jmayo

Ipso wrote: »

But apart from that they're grand.
Seriously, reading that might make me finally get around to closing my account with them.

Just look through AIB's history and you will see it littered with instances where they have screwed over their customers and then screwed the taxpayers.
And of the big two banks they are the one that (along with their new acquisition EBS) got 20 billion in recapitalisation from the taxpayer and paid back less than 2billion.
On the other hand BOI has paid back must of the money it got.
Oh and BOI is actually funcitoning to some degree as a privately owned bank, wheras AIB is sucking at the teat of the state.

If you haven't been screwed already then you are about to be.

The_Conductor wrote: »

Its funny how Michael Noonan seems to think that because Dublin prices are now 47% below peak- that prices can't fall any further........ That is unless he is deliberately playing to the public- as he seems a bit too intelligent to believe that nonsense.......

Noonan is a wily old campaigner and not an eejit.
Just remember the government last year were arguing that BOI and AIB should be eligible for direct bank recapitalisation by the ESM fund.
Also remember there are stress tests coming, that by some estimates are going point out that there is a 30 billion hole that needs to be plugged.

Increasing house prices make that 30 billion appear a bit smaller and more manageable going forward.

makeorbrake

jmayo wrote: »

If you haven't been screwed already then you are about to be.

You mean the state bail them out again or a bail-in raiding deposit accounts?

The_Conductor

makeorbrake wrote: »

You mean the state bail them out again or a bail-in raiding deposit accounts?

The approved route, post Cyprus, is a bail-in raiding scheme.
There is now way a further bail-out, of possibly as much as 46 billion, could be borne by the tax payer.

jmayo

makeorbrake wrote: »

You mean the state bail them out again or a bail-in raiding deposit accounts?

A bit of both maybe.

The_Conductor wrote: »

The approved route, post Cyprus, is a bail-in raiding scheme.
There is now way a further bail-out, of possibly as much as 46 billion, could be borne by the tax payer.

This is why, as I stated above, that the government were angling that BOI and AIB should be eligible for direct bank recapitalisation by the ESM fund.

They have had a damm good idea of the holes and were hoping the ESM fund would just pony up and not link in the taxpayers.

The big question is really could they raid the deposit base to cover so much.
Could it cause a run elsewhere and a bank folding ?
A lot of people argue that the EU/ECB have now gotten to a state where contagion cannot spread, so that if for instance a bank goes in one state that it doesn't bring down the whole house of cards.
The only thing that does not account for is human sentiment.
Markets operate on sentiment and depositors (even big corporations) are pretty sentimental about their cash savings.

IMHO if the Irish poster child grumbles then the others PIIGS look very shaky indeed.

Cuddlesworth

A raid on deposits would be a great catalyst since thats where the current housing price "rises" are coming from.