Fair play to Pearse Doherty

Mardy Bum

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

It takes some gall to slag off the ESRI when you couldn't finish a basic (probably level 7) three year degree in DIT. :rolleyes:

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Banjo String

As I understand it, Doherty is only pointing out the obvious, that the ESRI have been wrong so many times before. Why does someone need to be economically qualified to point out earlier flaws? They've gotten it wrong in the past, this is fact, on record in black and white. He also stated very clearly that:

he hopes the ESRI forecasts materialise in terms of growth and unemployment.

However, if they do materialise, it will be the first time ever because, he said, the ESRI has got it so wrong for many years.

I think David Moyes isn't the best manager in the English Premiership, and I have zero experience or qualifications in soccer management. I'm forming my opinion on his current record and dismal performance.

You seem to be hung up on an individual's academic qualifications, we all know however these are (or lack of) in Irish politics are irrelevant.

Do you need a weatherman to tell which way the wind blows?

Zubeneschamali

Banjo String wrote: »

Do you need a weatherman to tell which way the wind blows?

If you want to know which way it's going to blow tomorrow, I'll back Evelyn Cusack against Pearse Doherty every time.

oscarBravo

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If you want to know which way it's going to blow tomorrow, I'll back Evelyn Cusack against Pearse Doherty every time.

Pfft. Weather forecasters have been wrong in the past, therefore meteorology isn't a science and all meteorologists are charlatans. Do try to keep up.

Banjo String

oscarBravo wrote: »

Pfft. Weather forecasters have been wrong in the past,

Yep. They've been correct in the past too though.

Godge

Banjo String wrote: »

As I understand it, Doherty is only pointing out the obvious, that the ESRI have been wrong so many times before. Why does someone need to be economically qualified to point out earlier flaws? They've gotten it wrong in the past, this is fact, on record in black and white. He also stated very clearly that:


I think David Moyes isn't the best manager in the English Premiership, and I have zero experience or qualifications in soccer management. I'm forming my opinion on his current record and dismal performance.

You seem to be hung up on an individual's academic qualifications, we all know however these are (or lack of) in Irish politics are irrelevant.

Do you need a weatherman to tell which way the wind blows?

On this one Doherty is completely wrong. The figures from the last few months have shown that austerity actually worked, the economy has turned around.

Godge wrote: »

So he is saying that the ESRI said that austerity would lead to growth and the government imposed austerity and now that we are seeing growth resuming in the economy following the imposition of austerity that the ESRI are wrong.

I lost him in the logic.

Very strange analysis to say the least.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Zubeneschamali

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Until they are in power (Sweet divine jesus between us and all harm), when they would have to cross their fingers and hope that a run of growth would let them go on a Charlie McCreevy style vote-buying spending spree.

Godge

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

100% agree, and it says a lot about Doherty and SF that they are more interested in their own political ambitions than an economic recovery for the people of this country.

golfball37

Godge wrote: »

100% agree, and it says a lot about Doherty and SF that they are more interested in their own political ambitions than an economic recovery for the people of this country.

They are of course alone in that regard.

flutered

Godge wrote: »

100% agree, and it says a lot about Doherty and SF that they are more interested in their own political ambitions than an economic recovery for the people of this country.

since a lot of this thread is devoted to who has not a degree in whatever, has not rabbite gilmore and costelloe achived masters degrees in political ambitions, dotherty has quite a journey ahead of him to achive what these guys have.

Banjo String

Lastly, the context of Doherty's comments make it clear that he resents the implications of an optimistic economic outlook. Why? His party's ratings have trended sharply upward during the economic crisis, thanks largely to populist stances against bankers, bondholders, the IMF, spending cuts, and new taxes. Doherty knows that public discontent will disappear if people are no longer so concerned about their jobs, incomes, and futures. He's aware that in the absence of a continued gloomy economic outlook, Sinn Fein will slip back to being a minor player. So, Doherty and his fellow travellers need the economic crisis like fish need water. They want low growth, high unemployment, and public discontent so that they can further their own political ends. And so they don't want any pesky economists at the ESRI bursting the bubble.

Who else does this remind me of?

Answer yourself this. Would FG be in Govt if the economic crash had not have happened?
What did FG say (or labour) they would do if they were elected (and reneged on most of their promises)?

In FGs case they're already slipping back to becoming minor players, the latest opinion polls put them on par with FF.

bobbysands81

Good loser wrote: »

John Fitzgerald said the forecasts mean the budgets can be easier from now on - Isn't that Pearse's line i.e. less austerity?

Usually the guy talks a lot but makes very little sense.

And who is John Fitzgerald married to? Oh yes, a former Labour Minister.

Zubeneschamali

Banjo String wrote: »

What did FG say (or labour) they would do if they were elected

For Fine Gael, the top-line summary was:

1. Help protect and create jobs
2. Keep taxes low while fixing the deficit;
3. Deliver smaller, better government;
4. Create a completely new, fairer, more efficient health system; and
5. Overhaul the way our political system works to stamp out cronyism and low standards

1 and 2 are going well. 3 was never going to happen (and Labour were pushing hard the other way), 4 is very hard, 5 is a never-ending struggle.

bobbysands81

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

For Fine Gael, the top-line summary was:

1. Help protect and create jobs
2. Keep taxes low while fixing the deficit;
3. Deliver smaller, better government;
4. Create a completely new, fairer, more efficient health system; and
5. Overhaul the way our political system works to stamp out cronyism and low standards

1 and 2 are going well. 3 was never going to happen (and Labour were pushing hard the other way), 4 is very hard, 5 is a never-ending struggle.

Under which of those headlines does paying back the failed gamblers (the unsecured bond holders) at the expense of every man woman and child of this State fall?

tayto lover

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If you want to know which way it's going to blow tomorrow, I'll back Evelyn Cusack against Pearse Doherty every time.

About 7 years ago my bank manager tried to get me to take out a second mortgage and buy another investment property. I refused because myself and the missus discussed it and felt that things might not be great if we couldn't get someone to rent it from us full-time and we felt that there were too many empty houses already.

The Bank manager probably had more qualifications than us but who was right?

Phoebas

tayto lover wrote: »

About 7 years ago my bank manager tried to get me to take out a second mortgage and buy another investment property. I refused because myself and the missus discussed it and felt that things might not be great if we couldn't get someone to rent it from us full-time and we felt that there were too many empty houses already.

The Bank manager probably had more qualifications than us but who was right?

A bank manager tried to sell you a financial product? Tell us more about this craziness.

tayto lover

Phoebas wrote: »

A bank manager tried to sell you a financial product? Tell us more about this craziness.

BUT it proves that you don't have to have a degree to spot bulls***
Again fair play to Doherty for challenging them.

Zubeneschamali

bobbysands81 wrote: »

Under which of those headlines does paying back the failed gamblers (the unsecured bond holders) at the expense of every man woman and child of this State fall?

They never promised to welch on our debts, so not welching was certainly not breaking any promises. The only related promise is one to renegotiate the deal with the troika, and they did indeed do that, even if the only outcome (so far) was the Anglo promissory note deal.

bobbysands81

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

They never promised to welch on our debts, so not welching was certainly not breaking any promises. The only related promise is one to renegotiate the deal with the troika, and they did indeed do that, even if the only outcome (so far) was the Anglo promissory note deal.

The unsecured debt was never our debt. Their gamble failed yet we pay them back.

Paddy Power doesn't return my stake if I put money on a horse that doesn't win.

Zubeneschamali

tayto lover wrote: »

About 7 years ago my bank manager tried to get me to take out a second mortgage and buy another investment property.

About 7 years go, SF ran on this manifesto, which would have required a massive increase in Government spending, and made our situation after the crash significantly worse.

Zubeneschamali

bobbysands81 wrote: »

The unsecured debt was never our debt.

I'm talking here about Banjostring's claim that FG broke all their promises. They never promised to default, it's a separate issue.

Godge

bobbysands81 wrote: »

Under which of those headlines does paying back the failed gamblers (the unsecured bond holders) at the expense of every man woman and child of this State fall?

More of this rubbish again.

http://economic-incentives.blogspot.ie/2014/04/just-what-was-guaranteed-and-who-was.html


Have a read of this.

Once FF and the Silly Greens guaranteed the depositors, there was no way back. We brought this crisis on ourselves and it is just idiotic that so many are still in denial.

tayto lover

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

About 7 years go, SF ran on this manifesto, which would have required a massive increase in Government spending, and made our situation after the crash significantly worse.

I have nothing to do with SF.
I started this thread because nobody except Pearse Doherty called out the ESRI for their predictions. Predictions that failed numerous times before. Its good to see someone, anyone, challenging these people regardless of them being right or wrong.

Mardy Bum

tayto lover wrote: »

I have nothing to do with SF.
I started this thread because nobody except Pearse Doherty called out the ESRI for their predictions. Predictions that failed numerous times before. Its good to see someone, anyone, challenging these people regardless of them being right or wrong.

It would be good to see him come up with viable economic policies rather than trying to score cheap populist points against an independent research body which at least attempts to conduct economic research (in a country full of financial institutions which up until recently lied through their teeth and gave erroneous data) and doesn't pull it out of its arse like SF.

tayto lover

Mardy Bum wrote: »

It would be good to see him come up with viable economic policies rather than trying to score cheap populist points against an independent research body which at least attempts to conduct economic research (in a country full of financial institutions which up until recently lied through their teeth and gave erroneous data) and doesn't pull it out of its arse like SF.

That is the operative word alright :pac:

alastair

tayto lover wrote: »

That is the operative word alright :pac:

Why don't you admit that you've no idea on the actual success rate for the ERSI's record on economic predictions? Because Doherty's assertion that they've never been right is simply incorrect. As McWilliams says - they all get it wrong some of the time.

tayto lover

alastair wrote: »

Why don't you admit that you've no idea on the actual success rate for the ERSI's record on economic predictions? Because Doherty's assertion that they've never been right is simply incorrect. As McWilliams says - they all get it wrong some of the time.

“he who knows not and knows he knows not is a wise man,
he who knows not and knows not he knows not - he is a fool”

alastair

tayto lover wrote: »

“he who knows not and knows he knows not is a wise man,
he who knows not and knows not he knows not - he is a fool”

"I yam what I yam and tha's all what I yam." -- Popeye the Sailor

I'll take that as an indication you have no idea what you're dealing with in relation to their record then.

tayto lover

They have been wrong on many things and have been called on it before.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/esris-bleak-and-erratic-forecasts-may-be-way-out-26327868.html

http://www.independent.ie/lifestyle/can-those-esri-boffins-really-predict-the-future-26650642.html

http://www.politics.ie/forum/economy/31503-esris-pathetic-record-forecasting-migration.html

sarumite

I remembering reading a glib comment from one economic commentator that economists have successfully predicted 6 of the last 3 recessions. That said, predicting the weather should in theory be easier than predicting economic output and yet meteorologists get it wrong too. All an economist can do is to base their reasoning on sound economic fundamentals. Expecting them to predict the future seems a little extreme.

bobbysands81

Godge wrote: »

More of this rubbish again.

http://economic-incentives.blogspot.ie/2014/04/just-what-was-guaranteed-and-who-was.html


Have a read of this.

Once FF and the Silly Greens guaranteed the depositors, there was no way back. We brought this crisis on ourselves and it is just idiotic that so many are still in denial.

That article says that we gave €9bn to unsecured bondholders, they should not have gotten a cent.

alastair

bobbysands81 wrote: »

That article says that we gave €9bn to unsecured bondholders, they should not have gotten a cent.

Perhaps not, but the reality is that the Troika - who were the only means of keeping the country funded, insisted that we do so. It's not like there was much in the way of alternative options open to us.

Zubeneschamali

bobbysands81 wrote: »

That article says that we gave €9bn to unsecured bondholders, they should not have gotten a cent.

Then people should have voted for a party which promised to cut them off.

bobbysands81

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Then people should have voted for a party which promised to cut them off.

Or our politicians should have put Irish citizens first.

Zubeneschamali

bobbysands81 wrote: »

Or our politicians should have put Irish citizens first.

You should have voted for politicians who would do what you want them to do.

Perhaps you did, but most of us did not. So it goes in a democracy.

Godge

bobbysands81 wrote: »

That article says that we gave €9bn to unsecured bondholders, they should not have gotten a cent.

Read it again, and read more widely. We had to give the money to the bondholders before we could give it to the depositers. So unless you wanted ordinary people to lose their savings.....

tayto lover

Godge wrote: »

Read it again, and read more widely. We had to give the money to the bondholders before we could give it to the depositers. So unless you wanted ordinary people to lose their savings.....

We should have only paid a percentage though.
Why should the Irish people take a 100% hit when they didn't gamble yet the gamblers took no hit at all.
We took no risk and lost yet they took a risk and lost and then recouped their loses from us.

alastair

tayto lover wrote: »

We should have only paid a percentage though.
Why should the Irish people take a 100% hit when they didn't gamble yet the gamblers took no hit at all.
We took no risk and lost yet they took a risk and lost and then recouped their loses from us.

Again: The Troika - who were the only means of keeping the country funded, insisted that we do so. It's not like there was much in the way of alternative options open to us.

tayto lover

alastair wrote: »

Again: The Troika - who were the only means of keeping the country funded, insisted that we do so. It's not like there was much in the way of alternative options open to us.

Have you a link to that exact scenario please?

alastair

tayto lover wrote: »

Have you a link to that exact scenario please?

Your pal McWilliams is clear on it, as is Brian Lucey, asides from clear statements to that effect by the Govt.
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2012/05/29/its-not-a-fiscal-union-its-a-fiscal-straightjacket
http://brianmlucey.wordpress.com/2011/11/05/why-the-ecb-are-being-unreasonable-on-bonds/
http://www.thejournal.ie/troika-aib-bond-quinn-620483-Oct2012/

Banjo String

alastair wrote: »

Perhaps not, but the reality is that the Troika - who were the only means of keeping the country funded, insisted that we do so. It's not like there was much in the way of alternative options open to us.

alastair wrote: »

Again: The Troika - who were the only means of keeping the country funded, insisted that we do so. It's not like there was much in the way of alternative options open to us.

So FG were only doing as the troika instructed them?

Or to be more precise, they aren't responsible for any improvement in the economy.

FG and Lab are very blinkered when it comes to financial decisions and introducing new taxes and charges.

Negative, like property tax and water charges "FF signed the country up to these charges, don't forget that" or, "the troika insists we introduce this, or won't accept that"

Yet when it comes to claiming glory, they are quick to claim full credit and responsibility as "the Govt parties who are improving things"

If they were re only following the troikas orders, then any party in Govt, FF/SF/PDs or INDs would be making the same claims.

JRant

Doherty may not be everyones cup of tea but casting aspertions on him because he didn't finish out a degree course is childish.

I'm not a Sinn Feiner but I like the cut of his cloth a lot more than the current minister of finance. Noonan should have been chased out office for good after the Brigid McCole scandal.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/noonans-image-tarnished-by-the-hepatitis-c-scandal-26095408.html

alastair

Banjo String wrote: »

If they were re only following the troikas orders, then any party in Govt, FF/SF/PDs or INDs would be making the same claims.

Correct.

Son Of A Vidic

Banjo String wrote: »

Michael Noonan is a former teacher. (primary school)

It seems having economic training isn't a necessity in a financial role of Govt.

Indeed and wasn't it great to have a suitably qualified Barrister positioned to bail out the banks. Quite hilarious to read the sniping at O'Doherty. Especially in a little country that has quite a penchant for appointment unqualified people into key roles.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Zubeneschamali

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

It's hard to tell if he succeeded, but he certainly did his best to undermine international confidence in Ireland's credit-worthiness.

handlemaster

The problem with the shinners they love the sound bites and the attacks ( without the guns) but can't seem to back it up with solid facts and figures their policies have more holes than Swiss cheese !

Banjo String

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Care to clarify what this means?

I was unaware he was a "traveller"