Scottish Independence discussion area

awec

EunanMac wrote: »

I thought the odds would be around evens, worth a punt at those odds, the bookies are in for a hiding if there is a yes vote

Evens on a yes vote? Why bother putting money on that?

Bookies ultimately want your money. They will price things to try and entice you to take a chance on what they feel is going to be the losing outcome. The more people who do this the more money they will make.

They think no will win. So they'll give odds like 17/10 on yes to encourage risk takers. If it was evens or close to it nobody would bother.

You said it yourself. "Worth a punt at those odds".

EunanMac

awec wrote: »

Evens on a yes vote? Why bother putting money on that?

Because there is a better chance of winning. Plenty of odds are priced at evens in many events. It's as common as muck. For the best value, you find where you consider the bookies have priced the odds wrong and exploit it to your advantage. E.g. last weeks football semi final was a prime example. Paddy Power admitted last week they got the odds way wrong and lost a fortune on it. IMO they are also pricing the Scottish referendum incorrectly, hence, worth a punt.

My name is URL

Such a sham with all the deeply worried unionists simultaneously bargaining with the Scots (we'll give you more power if you vote no), and threatening them at the same time (we'll close the borders if you vote yes!)... In any case suggesting that they're the only ones holding cards in any of this.

It'd be such a laugh if they voted to leave the 'kingdom'... I would actually laugh and take great delight from it.

EunanMac

My name is URL wrote: »

Such a sham with all the deeply worried unionists simultaneously bargaining with the Scots (we'll give you more power if you vote no), and threatening them at the same time (we'll close the borders if you vote yes!)... In any case suggesting that they're the only ones holding cards in any of this.

It'd be such a laugh if they voted to leave the 'kingdom'... I would actually laugh and take great delight from it.

Even though I'm in favour of Scottish Independence if they want it, I would have my reservations about any gloating. If there are any unforeseeable and unintended political consequences for NI (there may or may not be, we'll have to wait and see, there are enough unpredictable radicals there that is for sure), that will also affect the Republic in some way.

awec

EunanMac wrote: »

Because there is a better chance of winning. Plenty of odds are priced at evens in many events. It's as common as muck. For the best value, you find where you consider the bookies have priced the odds wrong and exploit it to your advantage. E.g. last weeks football semi final was a prime example. Paddy Power admitted last week they got the odds way wrong and lost a fortune on it. IMO they are also pricing the Scottish referendum incorrectly, hence, worth a punt.

The bookies don't think so. Whether or not they are correct time will tell but it's pretty clear right now they are going with a no vote.

Of course there are loads of odds priced at evens. When it makes sense though.

If there were loads of people punting on yes then those odds would soon be cut. The fact they are still at those levels suggests to me that the bookies aren't getting that many people putting yes on their coupons.

eeepaulo

awec wrote: »

If there were loads of people punting on yes then those odds would soon be cut.

Maybe they are uncertain what currency the bet would be paid out in

EunanMac

awec wrote: »

The bookies don't think so. Whether or not they are correct time will tell but it's pretty clear right now they are going with a no vote.

Of course there are loads of odds priced at evens. When it makes sense though.

If there were loads of people punting on yes then those odds would soon be cut. The fact they are still at those levels suggests to me that the bookies aren't getting that many people putting yes on their coupons.

They will be as all the opinion poll gaps close, hence its worth a punt

Scottie99

EunanMac wrote: »

They will be as all the opinion poll gaps close, hence its worth a punt

I stuck a few extra bob on last night before Sunday papers came out. Twitter was going mad at the time with the yougov poll - this time I got 5/2

Scottie99

Richard wrote: »

In the 2010 UK General Election, 42% of the Scottish electorate voted Labour, but only 20% voted SNP, 19% voted LibDem and 17% voted Conservative. So SNP weren't exactly winners there.

Yep was thinking 2011 Scottish Parliamentary election where SNP gained control hence this Referendum.:D

kingchess

Independence-coming to a Country near you soon,

Fentdog84

EunanMac wrote: »

Even though I'm in favour of Scottish Independence if they want it, I would have my reservations about any gloating. If there are any unforeseeable and unintended political consequences for NI (there may or may not be, we'll have to wait and see, there are enough unpredictable radicals there that is for sure), that will also affect the Republic in some way.

Your right, a scottish independence vote will have huge ramifications for both this country and the uk. But its hard not to gloat. The vote was only sanctioned by Cameron, Clegg & Osborne etc as a smarmy political stunt safe in the belief that no way would the scots actually vote to break from the uk. Now it looks like it could happen and they are ****ting themselves. They completely overestimated their own popularity. The credibility of the union is in complete tatters if it happens.

WilyCoyote

pablomakaveli wrote: »

Impression i get is the regular Brit isn't that bothered.

You mean ...... Fratton Fred is not your average Brit?

DEFTLEFTHAND

They hate tories but they're probably not that stupid. Remember the tory blue counties in England would give up everything north of the Watford Gap if they could vote for it.

Some people here make it seem like the big bad Brits want to hold onto their Empire. An inferiority complex or something maybe?

porsche959

Rupert Murdoch, of all people, has apparently come out in favour of Scottish independence but his former Sunday Times editor Andrew Neil is saying it is just Murdoch's way of getting even with the British establishment after the phone-hacking scandal. Make of that what you will!

Crann na Beatha

This post has been deleted.

A Dub in Glasgo

The polls are showing it will be close with one poll showing Yes in a narrow lead. Even the hint of a Yes win has sent the No side into a panic. Watch for more dire warnings and more 'promises' of extra powers

Scottie99

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The polls are showing it will be close with one poll showing Yes in a narrow lead. Even the hint of a Yes win has sent the No side into a panic. Watch for more dire warnings and more 'promises' of extra powers

In the real world I think Yes are out in the distance not just the 2 points lead

Michael D Not Higgins

Scottie99 wrote: »

I stuck a few extra bob on last night before Sunday papers came out. Twitter was going mad at the time with the yougov poll - this time I got 5/2

How much have you dropped on a yes win now?

EunanMac

Fentdog84 wrote: »

Your right, a scottish independence vote will have huge ramifications for both this country and the uk. But its hard not to gloat. The vote was only sanctioned by Cameron, Clegg & Osborne etc as a smarmy political stunt safe in the belief that no way would the scots actually vote to break from the uk. Now it looks like it could happen and they are ****ting themselves. They completely overestimated their own popularity. The credibility of the union is in complete tatters if it happens.

I think you're right. Cameron is definitely the root cause of this mess, I couldn't see any other Prime Minister loose Scotland. He is a compete tosser, and this new breed of British politician are clueless half wits. The old hands would never make their mistakes. The Scots have rightly had enough of them.

Fratton Fred

EunanMac wrote: »

I think you're right. Cameron is definitely the root cause of this mess, I couldn't see any other Prime Minister loose Scotland. He is a compete tosser, and this new breed of British politician are clueless half wits. The old hands would never make their mistakes. The Scots have rightly had enough of them.

I'm not a big fan of Cameron, although he is growing on me. However, I fail to see what choice he had. The right to a referendum goes back (I believe) to the formation of the Scottish parliament and devolution.

porsche959

Scottie99 wrote: »

In the real world I think Yes are out in the distance not just the 2 points lead

Rupert Murdoch claimed on Twitter that Salmond has commissioned polls which are showing 54 Y-46 N. Mind you, as regards Murdoch apparently latching himself onto the Yes campaign the expression "with friends like these..." springs to mind.

sebastianlieken

the pound sterling is really plumeting at the moment.... really really wish I'd converted all my money a month ago instead of holding out and hoping for the best.

Dyr

porsche959 wrote: »

Rupert Murdoch claimed on Twitter that Salmond has commissioned polls which are showing 54 Y-46 N. Mind you, as regards Murdoch apparently latching himself onto the Yes campaign the expression "with friends like these..." springs to mind.

He didnt get where he is without recognizing a tax haven in the making

snubbleste

We should quickly colonise and claim Rockall amid the confusion..

Somecrimesitry

snubbleste wrote: »

We should quickly colonise and claim Rockall amid the confusion..

You misspelt Northern Ireland:)

bobbysands81

Scottie99 wrote: »

In the real world I think Yes are out in the distance not just the 2 points lead

How I wish this was true. I think Yes will put up a gallant fight but lose by a few % points.

I hope I'm wrong.

stevedublin

I can see Scotland dropping out of the UK, but can't see it dropping out of the EU.
If Scotland automatically falls out of the EU upon declaring independence, they'll probably apply to join quickly enough.

LordSutch

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I'm not a big fan of Cameron, although he is growing on me. However, I fail to see what choice he had. The right to a referendum goes back (I believe) to the formation of the Scottish parliament and devolution.

I believe it was Blair who opened the pandoras box, for which Cameron may well pay the price?

I am pie

I dont think Salmond really wants a Yes, he wants the rewards of a close vote. More power etc,...I dont believe for a second detailed plans exist for a transition to independence.

I'd be happy to see it happen just to see the look on Cameron's face.

Fratton Fred

I am pie wrote: »

I dont think Salmond really wants a Yes, he wants the rewards of a close vote. More power etc,...I dont believe for a second detailed plans exist for a transition to independence.

I'd be happy to see it happen just to see the look on Cameron's face.

I think a yes vote would be amusing, just to see Alex Salmond do some serious back peddling and U-turning.

SharpshooterTom

I think 'No' will win narrowly also. I used to think it was going to be a landslide victory for No, getting up towards 70% with anything over 40% for Yes being a great result. Now around 45% is possible for Yes, meaning even if Scotland does say No its not a resounding result it once could have been and Scotland is very divided over independence. English people will be less trustworthy of them seeing so many still voting Yes and the concept of "Rule Britannia" and British patriotism in general with some question marks over it.

Mal-Adjusted

stevedublin wrote: »

I can see Scotland dropping out of the UK, but can't see it dropping out of the EU.
If Scotland automatically falls out of the EU upon declaring independence, they'll probably apply to join quickly enough.

If they do vote yes, it will be many months to a year (or more) before Sotland would actually become independent as various institutions will have to be disentangled/built from scratch. It's not as if the vote comes in and the SNP can just flip a swith on 19/9 and hey, presto! new country. They would most likely apply for E.U. membership in the coming weeks and have all their ducks in a row by the time Independence arrives.

Maybe an academic idea anyway as i think it'll probably be a no vote.

Paramite Pie

snowstorm445 wrote: »

There's an issue relating to this topic that I often wonder about.

Presuming the Scots vote yes in this referendum (although IMO they will probably end up saying no), and secedes from the UK, will it still be regarded as the UK? Will the rump state of England, NI and Wales still refer to itself as a United Kingdom? Will the overall demonym still be "British"?

The United Kingdom of Great Britain And Ireland was only created in 1801 when Ireland joined (and it's name changed when we left), prior to that the Kingdom of Great Britain was the term used to describe the older 1707 Union of Scotland & England. So if Scotland stayed and NI left, it would no longer be the United Kingdom as that term was created when Ireland joined.

The format would still be the United Kingdom of _____ & Northern Ireland. What the 'blank' would be... I cannae say. The naming dispute between Ireland and the NI/UK was never resolved, so it's likely there will be no agreed outcome.

Donkey Oaty

Mal-Adjusted wrote: »

If they do vote yes, it will be many months to a year (or more) before Sotland would actually become independent

Alex Salmond has said he wants 24rd March 2016 to be independence day.

Exactly a week after St Patricks Day, so easy to remember if it becomes a national holiday, and he may have had a canny eye on some commercial link-ins there.

Michael D Not Higgins

Donkey Oaty wrote: »

Alex Salmond has said he wants 24rd March 2016 to be independence day.

Exactly a week after St Patricks Day, so easy to remember if it becomes a national holiday, and he may have had a canny eye on some commercial link-ins there.

Probably a parade down the Royal Mile that'll reuse the American marching bands. Sure, half of them are playing bagpipes and wearing kilts anyway.

Jimoslimos

I would like to see an independent Scotland but I reckon it'll be a No vote. However, regardless of whichever way the vote goes the most disappointing element of this campaign has been the condescending manner the No camp have treated the prospect of an independent Scotland,

It takes some amount of bare-faced hypocrisy to cast aspersions on Scotland's ability to operate a currency union with the UK whilst offering eleventh hour concessions of power including economic ones.

If Scotland (or indeed any other similar sized population in the UK) aren't capable of managing themselves independently then that reflects poorly, not on Scotland, but the UK itself. The No camp should instead be questioning themselves as to why Scotland couldn't thrive independently and also why there is a sizable proportion of the population (even if it is a minority) unhappy with the current state of affairs.

In the event of a No vote I think Scotland's best chance of improving itself lies not in additional tidbits of power from Westminster but rather in developing stronger economic and political links with the North of England (Newcastle, Leeds, Manchester, Liverpool, etc). However the current (unfair) "first past the post" voting system makes this highly unlikely to happen any time soon, which suits the status quo of Tory and Labour governments.

"Those who fail to learn from the mistakes of the past are doomed to repeat them"

westcoast66

What if ourselves and NI joined Scotland? Would everyone be happy then?!

spiralism

Think the recent polls show the downside of negative campaigning in a referendum vote yet again..

This is strikingly similar to the first Lisbon Treaty referendum where instead of having it explained to us Biffo and his merry men instead told us about all the bad things that would happen if we didn't and that we'd be very bold not to do what we're bid. The electorate didn't exactly react well to being patronised like bold children and we weren't given any reason why it was good for us to accept it.

Likewise, the No campaign in scotland has adopted this tactic, telling Scottish voters that this bad thing and that bad thing will happen if they say Yes and they've lost massive ground. Telling an electorate voting in an independence referendum to do as they're told or else isn't exactly a very wise tactic

Muahahaha

spiralism wrote: »

Think the recent polls show the downside of negative campaigning in a referendum vote yet again..

This is strikingly similar to the first Lisbon Treaty referendum where instead of having it explained to us Biffo and his merry men instead told us about all the bad things that would happen if we didn't and that we'd be very bold not to do what we're bid. The electorate didn't exactly react well to being patronised like bold children and we weren't given any reason why it was good for us to accept it.

Likewise, the No campaign in scotland has adopted this tactic, telling Scottish voters that this bad thing and that bad thing will happen if they say Yes and they've lost massive ground. Telling an electorate voting in an independence referendum to do as they're told or else isn't exactly a very wise tactic

I think you've hit the nail on the head there, the Yes campaign has done nothing but scaremongering and now we're less than 10 days from the vote and the opinion polls have tightened they are now going into full blown panic mode with Gordon Brown announcing town hall meetings all over the country and this new notion that Scotland will get more power by next year if they vote against independence is just going to be seen by many Scots as last minute desperation and actually make them more likely to vote for independence now that they see how much London is panicing.

As a slightly distant observer I hope Alex Salmond carries the day and wins the referendum. It'll certainly make things interesting in Northern Ireland, where unionists see themselves as brethern of the Scots. If Scotland votes for independence many people are going to say how bizarre it is for Scotland not to be in the United Kingdom and for Northern Ireland still to be so.

I reckon Salmond will win the referendum. He has to put in some good performances between now and the 18th but he's already proven himself to be more than capable of that. The Tory/Labour/Lib Dem axis is going full out now and he's got a real dogfight on his hands. Nonetheless his campaign has momentum which is something the No campaign never had. It is very difficult to stop momentum in electoral politics, we all saw how Barack Obama came from nothing to being US President in the space of 18 months on the back of a slowly but effectively built momentum. I dont know what the feelings are like on the ground in Scotland right now but I'm sensing there is a wave of optimism for independence shining through and that many Scots are not fearful of going it alone and the more scare stores Westminister spins the more they are likely to vote Yes. If that is the case then a Yes vote that has momentum will prove to be very difficult to stop at this late stage.

LiveIsLife

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I'm not a big fan of Cameron, although he is growing on me. However, I fail to see what choice he had. The right to a referendum goes back (I believe) to the formation of the Scottish parliament and devolution.

Well Salmond has claimed the English side wouldn't let Devo Max be on the ballot paper when the referendum was proposed a couple of years ago. So they presumably just assumed a vote on independence would fail but Devo Max might pass. Which makes their current offers of more devolution look more ridiculous

A Dub in Glasgo

Muahahaha wrote: »

I think you've hit the nail on the head there, the Yes campaign has done nothing but scaremongering and now we're less .

You mean the No campaign?

Saadyst

Still find it hilarious simple-minded when someone points out potential problems and risks and it's called scaremongering. :rolleyes:

Broxi_Bear_Eire

Saadyst wrote: »

Still find it hilarious simple-minded when someone points out potential problems and risks and it's called scaremongering. :rolleyes:

What potential problems such as Scotland will be at risk of attack by aliens or Putin will be invading after he finishes with the Ukraine or any of the rest half arsed tactics

biko

There are risks and almost certainly a backlash from England but in the long run I think it's a great idea.
If it happens I can see Wales going for a similar bid at some point.

LiveIsLife

biko wrote: »

There are risks and almost certainly a backlash from England but in the long run I think it's a great idea.
If it happens I can see Wales going for a similar bid at some point.

Possibly but the Welsh aren't really known for their backbone, I'd say they're content enough with the status quo.

P_1

Must say that there is a certain irony in Westminster proposing Home Rule given the year that's in it.

eeepaulo

Holyrood cost £414 000 000 + spiralling costs of maintenance

I saw someone earlier quote £200 000 000 for an entire governmental infrastructure

thats positive thinking

Gordon

biko wrote: »

There are risks and almost certainly a backlash from England but in the long run I think it's a great idea.
If it happens I can see Wales going for a similar bid at some point.

Wales can't, they don't have as much resources and industry to go it alone.

P_1

Gordon wrote: »

Wales can't, they don't have as much resources and industry to go it alone.

Yeah I'd imagine there would be a greater chance of Cornwall going for independence than Wales.

Now could we see a London bid for independence at some stage...

Fratton Fred

LiveIsLife wrote: »

Well Salmond has claimed the English side wouldn't let Devo Max be on the ballot paper when the referendum was proposed a couple of years ago. So they presumably just assumed a vote on independence would fail but Devo Max might pass. Which makes their current offers of more devolution look more ridiculous

The English side?

It isn't rugby.