Scottish Independence discussion area

LordSutch · 10-09-2014 9:58am

Barely There wrote: »

Despite the giddy excitement of the barstool republicans, I predict a comfortable victory for the pro-Union side in next week's referendum.

Well I would have agreed with you up until about a week ago, but at this stage with only a week to go till the referendum its too close to call for my liking (if the polls are to be believed).

The repercussions of a Yes vote would be enormous and far reaching.

Scratches head, how did the UK get this close to breaking-up so easily :cool:

Donkey Oaty · 10-09-2014 10:00am

Understatement of the day:

"From observing the debate that has gone on, I am not at all convinced that people have fully understood what all the implications of this are."

John Major, BBC R4's Today Programme.

10-09-2014 10:05am

LordSutch wrote: »

Well I would have agreed with you up until about a week ago, but at this stage with only a week to go till the referendum its too close to call for my liking (if the polls are to be believed).

The repercussions of a Yes vote would be enormous and far reaching.

Scratches head, how did the UK get this close to breaking-up so easily :cool:

I think at this stage the implications of a 'No' vote are enormous and far reaching as well.

The last minute bribe from the no side is going to cause all sorts of trouble when the bill comes to be paid.

Jimoslimos · 10-09-2014 10:06am

Lapin wrote: »

FYP.

London will look after itself.

Actually the London and the Home Counties would be a hell of a lot better off without the rest of the UK.

I agree London will look after itself, which is why I would argue for the capital of the UK to move from there.

Situate it somewhere further North, closer to Scotland, Wales and NI. London isn't going to suffer too much and people in the rest of the UK actually get closer to seeing the workings of democracy and notions of a Westminster elite are dispelled. It would also provide a welcome boost to the economy in those areas, improved transport links etc..

You could build a new purpose built city or even use an existing city with history, e.g. York.

swimming in a sea · 10-09-2014 10:35am

So Scotland is dominated by the SNP and Labour both of which are parties of the left (I think), so I wonder will a party of the right start to appear if they vote for independence.

Will they end up like FF/FG in Ireland?

Jimoslimos · 10-09-2014 10:40am

swimming in a sea wrote: »

So Scotland is dominated by the SNP and Labour both of which are parties of the left (I think), so I wonder will a party of the right start to appear if they vote for independence.

Well I'd hope so, even if I'd never vote that way myself. It's not good for democracy to lack an alternative political viewpoint.

Madam · 10-09-2014 11:02am

swimming in a sea wrote: »

So Scotland is dominated by the SNP and Labour both of which are parties of the left (I think), so I wonder will a party of the right start to appear if they vote for independence.

Will they end up like FF/FG in Ireland?

We also have the Green party(which would be my preference which goes to show it is not just SNP supporters who are voting yes).

Donkey Oaty · 10-09-2014 11:16am

There's a new poll out tonight. The Guardian's take on it:

That poll, by Survation, is scheduled for 10.30pm BST, and the company itself says that the results are “VERY interesting”.

Oooh, what a tease their PR person is.

However, Reuters man Patrick Graham tweets:

Sterling getting another hammering the last half an hour following the rumours of the Survation poll

I'm not sure what "VERY interesting" means - could be an unexpected surge in the "Don't Knows" or something like that.

BoJack Horseman · 10-09-2014 11:19am

The 'VERY interesting' finding will be a surge in support for the third way.

To be neither in or out, but beside the union.

Or....

More likely a 3-4% swing back in favour of 'No'.... The hyper-scare campaign had to bear fruit in opinion polls eventually.

ninebeanrows · 10-09-2014 11:25am

I think fear will swing it on the day.

People who might vote Yes will decide to stick with what they have.

Saadyst · 10-09-2014 12:06pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

I think fear will swing it on the day.

People who might vote Yes will decide to stick with what they have.

Fear that's strengthened by Salmond's inability to clearly spell out any risks :rolleyes:

Donkey Oaty · 10-09-2014 12:15pm

Cameron has now used the phrase "effing Tories" in an attempt to appeal to the Yes voters.

This is getting more surreal by the moment.

Get Real · 10-09-2014 12:40pm

I personally think they will vote yes on the day. I've thought so for quite a few months. I could be terribly wrong, and tonights poll will be interesting.

But even if the NO side takes a lead again, I think YES will win because of a higher voter turnout from that camp. If I were in favour of independence I would most certainly turn up to vote, to make every voice count.

But if I wasn't sure/ wanted to maintain the situation "as is" I'd be more inclined to abstain or stay at home/ try to vote but if I was busy adopt the attitude of sure it'll be grand. I could be wrong here too.

However, disregarding the outcome, I do find one thing strange/ incredible:

at the first sight of a YES lead, politicians come out promising reform within the Union, extra powers etc yet had months/years to do this.

Secondly, many comments in news articles seem to give off the air of "fine, we don't need Scotland anyway" then a rant about Scots regretting a YES vote, debt, immigration etc.

Well for a relatively quiet side when they thought they were winning, the NO camp seem to have gotten very childish and there seems to be searching for bad outcomes if a YES vote wins, and a "f'ck ye if ye leave we don't care but hahaha if ye f'ck it up"

its like they're almost threatened that Scotland might do it, and make no constructive statements like "we care about you in our Union".

Rather, they take the approach of a jealous partner in a break up- "this will happen you, don't come crawling back, you'll mess up, I won't be here for you"

Fratton Fred · 10-09-2014 12:56pm

It's not so much the jealous partner in a relationship, it's more like a partner that keeps getting told "i hate you, you're a ****, I'm leaving you" turning round a finally saying don't let the door hit you on the way out.

A Dub in Glasgo · 10-09-2014 1:45pm

It that why the 3 amigos are in Scotland today?

swimming in a sea · 10-09-2014 1:55pm

Politicians in England genuinely do seem to care about which way Scotland votes, this from my experience seems tobe at odds with ordinary English people. I know a lot from my sister office in the south of England and there is a general attitude of not caring and won't make a difference to me. These are middle class types I'd say 90% conservative voters.

eeepaulo · 10-09-2014 2:00pm

swimming in a sea wrote: »

Politicians in England genuinely do seem to care about which way Scotland votes, this from my experience seems tobe at odds with ordinary English people. I know a lot from my sister office in the south of England and there is a general attitude of not caring and won't make a difference to me. These are middle class types I'd say 90% conservative voters.

I wonder is this why the Yes campaign is gaining such traction, the people who are going up to Scotland are either from westminster or the BBC. Way to make any normal people feel part of something.

10-09-2014 2:04pm

swimming in a sea wrote: »

Politicians in England genuinely do seem to care about which way Scotland votes, this from my experience seems tobe at odds with ordinary English people. I know a lot from my sister office in the south of England and there is a general attitude of not caring and won't make a difference to me. These are middle class types I'd say 90% conservative voters.

Of course the politicians care!

For Cameron being a conservative leader and prime minister who 'loses the union' is pretty much a cardinal (and terminal) sin. He'll never be known as anything else.

For Milliband there's the obvious desire to have Scotland return it's usual swathe of labour mps and help make him prime minister next year. Also some residual marxist belief in the benefits of international socialism over 'narrow' nationalism.

Clegg is just doing what he is told but the lib dems are - or were - also popular in scotland and so he wouldn't want to see the union divided.

I would say plenty of English (and Welsh and Scottish) people of a certain age would certainly feel that it would be a 'shame' if the UK was no more. But perhaps not much more than that.

golfball37 · 10-09-2014 2:35pm

Cameron and Red Ed could both be made resign by their party's, for differing reasons, should the answer be YES next week.

One is the leader of the mainland Unionist party who has broken the union and the other has oversaw a situation whereby Labour overall majority's in Westminister become much tougher propositions in the future.

who the fug · 10-09-2014 2:40pm

golfball37 wrote: »

Cameron and Red Ed could both be made resign by their party's, for differing reasons, should the answer be YES next week.

One is the leader of the mainland Unionist party who has broken the union and the other has oversaw a situation whereby Labour overall majority's in Westminister become much tougher propositions in the future.

No both of them should call for a new parliament and give voters down sarf a government that will robustly represent us.

Hoop66 · 10-09-2014 3:10pm

Deleted User wrote: »

For Cameron being a conservative leader and prime minister who 'loses the union' is pretty much a cardinal (and terminal) sin. He'll never be known as anything else.

And with good reason.

Because he thought the No vote would win comfortably and didn't want to be seen to give Salmond an inch, he refused to allow the DevoMax option on the ballot. Had it been on there it would almost definitely have won.

Now it looks like it'll be much closer than anyone foresaw he is shitting himself. I for one find it hilarious.

evo2000 · 10-09-2014 3:19pm

WilyCoyote wrote: »

And whatever you do ........... don't mention the invasion of Ireland

Why would i mention Ireland? its completely irrelevant to Scottish independence which is what were talking about,

Lenin Skynard · 10-09-2014 4:13pm

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

It that why the 3 amigos are in Scotland today?

Don't forget the deadly secret weapon they've just wheeled out which is... John Prescott!

I never expected this level of desperation from the English, they're really throwing the kitchen sink at it now, this whole thing is really getting fun to watch.

Fratton Fred · 10-09-2014 4:30pm

Lenin Skynard wrote: »

Don't forget the deadly secret weapon they've just wheeled out which is... John Prescott!

I never expected this level of desperation from the English, they're really throwing the kitchen sink at it now, this whole thing is really getting fun to watch.

Why, is this about England v Scotland then? I

efb · 10-09-2014 4:31pm

Good luck to Scotland! Go for it!

Lenin Skynard · 10-09-2014 4:43pm

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Why, is this about England v Scotland then? I

In a lot of ways it is. The relationship between Scotland and England is the fundamental question at the heart of this. It's silly to pretend otherwise.

Fratton Fred · 10-09-2014 5:22pm

Lenin Skynard wrote: »

In a lot of ways it is. The relationship between Scotland and England is the fundamental question at the heart of this. It's silly to pretend otherwise.

You need to get with the programme then. The yes campaign have gone to great lengths to claim otherwise.

who_me · 10-09-2014 5:30pm

Not sure I understand the bit about a newly-independent Scotland having to apply for EU membership. Would (England & Wales & Northern Ireland) have to apply?

In the event of a Yes result, the UK as it exists today - and as it existed in 1973 when it joined the then EEC - will no longer exist. It seems like a bit of sensationalist propaganda to state one part of the "former UK" will have to reapply for membership, while the other won't.

Richard Hillman · 10-09-2014 5:33pm

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

It that why the 3 amigos are in Scotland today?

Do you honestly believe that they had no intention to visit Scotland at some stage in the run-in for the campaign?

I have been reading a lot of people screaming panic, when in reality they were always going to campaign at some stage. They were hardly going to stay at home ignoring the thing.

Donkey Oaty · 10-09-2014 5:42pm

who_me wrote: »

Not sure I understand the bit about a newly-independent Scotland having to apply for EU membership. Would (England & Wales & Northern Ireland) have to apply?

Nobody is saying Eng/Wal/NI will have to apply for membership, but on the first point you are not alone. There really is no consensus about what will happen.

The most recent intervention from Pat Cox today kind of proves that point - the very fact that he had to say that the EU "must" accept an independent Scotland is important, because as things stand they don't have to and the other EU countries are not united on this.

What'll probably happen is elements in the EU will make an independent Scotland jump through lots of membership hoops to clarify that it isn't an automatic process, while tacitly accepting that refusing membership is out of the question.

Donkey Oaty · 10-09-2014 5:45pm

Richard Hillman wrote: »

They were hardly going to stay at home ignoring the thing.

They would have stayed in London if they thought the vote was definitely going their way, so as not to rock the boat. So calling it "panic" is a bit much, but it's definitely a change in tactics.

A Dub in Glasgo · 10-09-2014 5:46pm

Richard Hillman wrote: »

Do you honestly believe that they had no intention to visit Scotland at some stage in the run-in for the campaign?

I have been reading a lot of people screaming panic, when in reality they were always going to campaign at some stage. They were hardly going to stay at home ignoring the thing.

Oh, it was their master plan after all. Silly me

Let's see, a poll comes out on Sunday which puts Yes in the slightest of leads and then

- Sunday: Osborne announces 'extra powers' for Scotland should the people vote No
- Monday: Brown outlines his timetable for those 'extra powers' with key milestones on St. Andrews Day & Burns Night (I kid you not!)
- Tuesday: Cameron & Miliband cancel their appearance at PMQ
- Tuesday: The Scottish flag is hoisted above No. 10
- Wednesday: Cameron, Miliband & the other guy all head to Scotland for campaigning

Panic or planned along?

Richard Hillman · 10-09-2014 6:01pm

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Oh, it was their master plan after all. Silly me

Let's see, a poll comes out on Sunday which puts Yes in the slightest of leads and then

- Sunday: Osborne announces 'extra powers' for Scotland should the people vote No
- Monday: Brown outlines his timetable for those 'extra powers' with key milestones on St. Andrews Day & Burns Night (I kid you not!)
- Tuesday: Cameron & Miliband cancel their appearance at PMQ
- Tuesday: The Scottish flag is hoisted above No. 10
- Wednesday: Cameron, Miliband & the other guy all head to Scotland for campaigning

Panic or planned along?

Do you honestly believe that they had no intention to visit Scotland at some stage in the run-in for the campaign?

A Dub in Glasgo · 10-09-2014 6:08pm

Richard Hillman wrote: »

Do you honestly believe that they had no intention to visit Scotland at some stage in the run-in for the campaign?

Cameron - No intention to campaign, his previous visit was to address the Scottish CBI. He has refused to debate Salmond and even refused to let STV question him with some undecided voters
Miliband - was up before
Clegg - don't know

Billy86 · 10-09-2014 6:10pm

Richard Hillman wrote: »

Do you honestly believe that they had no intention to visit Scotland at some stage in the run-in for the campaign?

Yes, so long as the 'no' vote kept a sizeable lead. The scrambling of the last few days after having appeared somewhat nonchalant over the subject for quite a while (as most had assumed the no vote had a sizeable lead, myself included) if planned as it has gone, is a comically awful plan.

I still think no is likely to win though, and apparently the pollers changed how they were tabulating results by weighting certain questions etc higher, nearly all of which would favour a better return for the yes vote in the polls.

Dayum · 10-09-2014 6:17pm

I think an independent Scotland can be extremely successful if they depart from the UK.

The problem stems from the fact that if socialists get into power in the aftermath, they could potentially turn the country into an economic wasteland. A lot of people are currently touting the line that Scotland can be another Denmark or Sweden but that's a ridiculous statement to make because socialism in the Scandinavian countries is a myth. Currently Denmark and Sweden have far greater business freedom, investment freedom, monetary freedom, financial freedom, property freedom and freedom from corruption than even that "capitalist utopia" - the good old US of A.

So in light of that I think Scottish independence is a good thing but also, I think they'll be looking in the wrong place for leadership in when everything is done and dusted.

Donkey Oaty · 10-09-2014 6:18pm

Billy86 wrote: »

apparently the pollers changed how they were tabulating results by weighting certain questions etc higher, nearly all of which would favour a better return for the yes vote in the polls.

Do you recall where you came across that info? It sounds like very strange behaviour by the pollsters, because they all know that their reputations are on the line here.

Billy86 · 10-09-2014 6:20pm

Donkey Oaty wrote: »

Do you recall where you came across that info? It sounds like very strange behaviour by the pollsters, because they all know that their reputations are on the line here.

Read it somewhere, will check into it when I get the chance.

myshirt · 10-09-2014 6:30pm

Is it right that Braveheart will be aired in the run up?

Is this insulting? Just wrong? Or a coy move, given the low voting age?

Donkey Oaty · 10-09-2014 6:40pm

myshirt wrote: »

Is it right that Braveheart will be aired in the run up?

Is this insulting? Just wrong? Or a coy move, given the low voting age?

To make it more interesting, they could show "Independence Day", where most non-American viewers were on the side of the aliens.

smcgiff · 10-09-2014 6:42pm

myshirt wrote: »

Is it right that Braveheart will be aired in the run up?

Is this insulting? Just wrong? Or a coy move, given the low voting age?

I doubt it will be shown on the BBC.

Del.Monte · 10-09-2014 6:53pm

Sure isn't the Braveheart mentality what the SNP on depending on to get their halfwitted voters out?

A Dub in Glasgo · 10-09-2014 7:00pm

myshirt wrote: »

Is it right that Braveheart will be aired in the run up?

No it is just a tired old joke at this stage

A Dub in Glasgo · 10-09-2014 7:01pm

Del.Monte wrote: »

Sure isn't the Braveheart mentality what the SNP on depending on to get their halfwitted voters out?

I see you like democracy

Billy86 · 10-09-2014 7:16pm

Donkey Oaty wrote: »

Do you recall where you came across that info? It sounds like very strange behaviour by the pollsters, because they all know that their reputations are on the line here.

Couldn't find it in my browsing history. It wasn't this exact article (don't read the Mirror) but hit on the same points. Apparently they weighted on where the votes where coming from, without which the no vote actually won out (though the margin still closed a lot from a month prior) as well as other polling stations that have been more optimistic than yougov previously, still putting the no vote marginally ahead.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/ampp3d/scotland-dont-panic-yet---4181718

I have a vague recollection it was the Guardian, which while more left leaning than several UK publications, it does have to be said is still a UK, primarily English, publication. So there is every chance it's just a lot of spin on their end (I don't follow polls an awful lot so wouldn't be able to add too much analysis of weighting, etc on my own to be honest!).

Karl Stein · 10-09-2014 7:19pm

Dayum wrote: »

socialism in the Scandinavian countries is a myth. Currently Denmark and Sweden have far greater business freedom, investment freedom, monetary freedom, financial freedom, property freedom and freedom from corruption than even that "capitalist utopia" - the good old US of A.

The Scandinavian countries are Capitalist, universalistic welfare state, social democracies.

'Socialism' as it applies to the Nordic model refers to how Nordic governments manage their economies and provide universal welfare and public services.

The Nordic model is distinguished from other types of welfare states by its emphasis on maximizing labor force participation, promoting gender equality, egalitarian and extensive benefit levels, the large magnitude of income redistribution, and liberal use of expansionary fiscal policy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nordic_model

Donkey Oaty · 10-09-2014 7:22pm

Billy86 wrote: »

It wasn't this exact article (don't read the Mirror) but hit on the same points.

Many thanks for that.

It's really complex stuff, as the YouGov link provided by the Mirror shows - and one for the pollster-history books, no doubt.

A Dub in Glasgo · 10-09-2014 7:29pm

Have a read of this from a last year

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2013/09/method-matters-yougov-and-progressive-polls/

who the fug · 10-09-2014 7:47pm

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I see you like democracy

It has worked wonders in Ireland ðŸ˜¯

Sir Oxman · 10-09-2014 8:00pm

54-46
Scotland -it's time.

Scottish Independence discussion area

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