Scottish Independence discussion area

Madam

First Up wrote: »

The notion (however incoherently expressed) that an independent Scotland will somehow be free from or independent of "the establishment" is one of the more (of many) ridiculous beliefs from the Yes side.

The Establishment (aka government, public services, industry and the financial system) is what makes a country what it is. If you want to be free of "the establishment", there are plenty of impoverished and backward countries to choose from. If you want to live to the standards of a developed country, then you will be living in a country with a strong "establishment". Not perfect, but by a long way, the best anybody has come up with so far.

It is depressing and scary to think that future generations of Scots are at the mercy of some of the ill-informed, half baked, superficial and frivolous arguments such as those being bandied around here.

Oh and God how we love being talked down to:(

Madam

Gosub wrote: »

Although I would like to see Scotland break the chains, I think it will be a no vote on the day. At which point any singing of 'Scotland the brave' will be a little farcical.

Just MHO.

I did have a grimace of a grin at that one:)

who the fug

Madam wrote: »

Oh and God how we love being talked down to:(

I wish I could take credit and explain that it is a Machiavellian plot by me to get rid of Scotland, with a long term aim of a Free London and South East.

The whole campaign is best watched from behind the sofa

First Up

Madam wrote: »

Oh and God how we love being talked down to:(

Another reason for voting yes? (Its about as good as any of the others.)

blinding

Surely the Scots are not going to be taken in by these sick/death bed conversions
from the No side at this very late stage.

How quickly the no promises would disappear after a no vote.

The ability of three different parties to water down these promises is more than open to later exploitation.

Be Brave Scotland. Seize your opportunity and do not die wondering.

Kermit.de.frog

If the Scots vote no I can honestly say my opinion of them would be a little lower. Not many regions with history and identity like theirs actually vote against their own independence.

First Up

blinding wrote: »

Surely the Scots are not going to be taken in by these sick/death bed conversions
from the No side at this very late stage.

How quickly the no promises would disappear after a no vote.

The ability of three different parties to water down these promises is more than open to later exploitation.

Be Brave Scotland. Seize your opportunity and do not die wondering.

I don't disagree that there is a cynical electioneering element to it but the prospect of increased devolution will be enough to persuade many wavering voters and I reckon it will be in the region of 58-60 for No on the day..

An interesting side effect is the increased calls for a less "London-centric" approach for other regions of the UK. Scottish devolution (max or otherwise) will be part of a wider move to more regional authority and autonomy.

As for being brave, the guy who jumps of a ship so that he can control his own destiny is brave. He is a few other things as well.

Piliger

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If the Scots vote no I can honestly say my opinion of them would be a little lower. Not many regions with history and identity like theirs actually vote against their own independence.

I agree completely. It makes me proud that our ancestors had the balls to break away from the British Empire, and I have nothing against the British. The Scots are such a distinctive and proud nation, it is horrible to see them being ruled for so many hundreds of years by Westminster and still unable to bring themselves to break free of the Empire's shilling.

Gosub

First Up wrote: »

As for being brave, the guy who jumps of a ship so that he can control his own destiny is brave. He is a few other things as well.

Even a prison ship?

Lenin Skynard

Gosub wrote: »

I think it will be a no vote on the day. At which point any singing of 'Scotland the brave' will be a little farcical.

Just MHO.

I don't think so. This all won't end with a no vote, by any means. Scotland and the UK will never be the same after this. The Scottish will be expecting a huge amount of extra powers if independence fails and the knowledge that just under 50% of the population wants independence will embolden the SNP further, and maybe even put the wind up English nationalists too. It'll never go back to the status quo, regardless of what the vote is.

First Up

Gosub wrote: »

Even a prison ship?

You saying Scotland is the equivalent of a prison ship?

35cent

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If the Scots vote no I can honestly say my opinion of them would be a little lower. Not many regions with history and identity like theirs actually vote against their own independence.

I would lose respect for them if they vote yes considering how poor the independence plan is in my opinion.

First Up

35cent wrote: »

I would lose respect for them if they vote yes considering how poor the independence plan is in my opinion.

You've seen a plan? Where?

Gosub

First Up wrote: »

You saying Scotland is the equivalent of a prison ship?

No, Scotland is a country. A prison ship is a boat. :P

Are you saying that a hostage shouldn't try to free themselves?

eeepaulo

First Up wrote: »

You saying Scotland is the equivalent of a prison ship?

Based on that analogy either the uk is the prison ship and scotland is a convict.

Or maybe a prison guard?

First Up

Gosub wrote: »

No, Scotland is a country. A prison ship is a boat. :P

Are you saying that a hostage shouldn't try to free themselves?

So Scotland is a hostage?

Gosub

eeepaulo wrote: »

Based on that analogy either the uk is the prison ship and scotland is a convict.

Or maybe a prison guard?

I think it's time to watch Prison Break again.

35cent

First Up wrote: »

You've seen a plan? Where?

The sad thing is that you're right. There doesn't seem to be any sort of plan at all. The fact that want a currency union at all is contradictory to their desire for independence.

Gosub

First Up wrote: »

So Scotland is a hostage?

Yes. Scotland is a hostage.

First Up

Gosub wrote: »

Yes. Scotland is a hostage.

Oh dear.

Piliger

Piliger wrote: »

I agree completely. It makes me proud that our ancestors had the balls to break away from the British Empire, and I have nothing against the British. The Scots are such a distinctive and proud nation, it is horrible to see them being ruled for so many hundreds of years by Westminster and still unable to bring themselves to break free of the Empire's shilling.

They are 'ruled' by a parliament that they send MPs to. Scotland is not a colony, I wish people would stop implying that it is.

I wonder what the Irish pro-scottish-independence lobby will make of the forthcoming English campaign to leave the EU?

All the same arguments will be rehearsed. Led by straight-talking Nigel Farage they will want to 'reclaim their nationhood' and take control of their own destiny again. The 'establishment' will be united campaigning to keep them in, and telling fearful stories about what will happen if they leave.

And everyone on boards will be on the other side of the argument.

Mal-Adjusted

Lenin Skynard wrote: »

It'll never go back to the status quo, regardless of what the vote is.

That's only if the YES camp is a large minority, maybe somewhere between 40-49% at a guess. What if the NO side wins in a landslide? (Unlikely when you look at the polls, but just for the sake of argument) If there's a huge NO turnout, would that not mean business as usual for the foreseeable future?

First Up

Mal-Adjusted wrote: »

That's only if the YES camp is a large minority, maybe somewhere between 40-49% at a guess. What if the NO side wins in a landslide? (Unlikely when you look at the polls, but just for the sake of argument) If there's a huge NO turnout, would that not mean business as usual for the foreseeable future?

It can't be a No landslide looking at the SNP's numbers but it will be comfortably defeated. What happens thereafter will be in the context of wider issues about devolved government across the UK. There are already loud calls from other regions who object to what looks like Scotland negotiating special deals for itself. It will continue for a few years yet but after Thursday they will be able to safely store the ballot boxes in Scotland for the foreseeable future.

First Up

Deleted User wrote: »

They are 'ruled' by a parliament that they send MPs to. Scotland is not a colony, I wish people would stop implying that it is.

I wonder what the Irish pro-scottish-independence lobby will make of the forthcoming English campaign to leave the EU?

All the same arguments will be rehearsed. Led by straight-talking Nigel Farage they will want to 'reclaim their nationhood' and take control of their own destiny again. The 'establishment' will be united campaigning to keep them in, and telling fearful stories about what will happen if they leave.

And everyone on boards will be on the other side of the argument.

Why would those of us making the case for Scotland's continued membership of the Union be in favour of British withdrawal from the EU?

First Up

First Up wrote: »

It can't be a No landslide looking at the SNP's numbers but it will be comfortably defeated. What happens thereafter will be in the context of wider issues about devolved government across the UK. There are already loud calls from other regions who object to what looks like Scotland negotiating special deals for itself. It will continue for a few years yet but after Thursday they will be able to safely store the ballot boxes in Scotland for the foreseeable future.

There is the opportunity to create something radically different. A federal UK (including England) with significant powers devolved to national or regional assemblies and Westminster dealing only with matters that can only be addressed at UK level.

A second chamber elected on a regional basis operating something like the US senate to hopefully act as a check on london-centric policy making.

It is unlikely to happen, and it's nothing to do with me I suppose - but that's what they should be looking to do. Whatever the vote now the status quo is not an option (which on balance is a good thing)

First Up

First Up wrote: »

Why would those of us making the case for Scotland's continued membership of the Union be in favour of British withdrawal from the EU?

It was a tongue in cheek remark.

There are plenty of people (like Farage) who are fierce keen on working together when wrapped in the union jack and less so when it means 'being ruled by brussels'.

And on the other hand, you can guarantee that plenty of pro-independence posters will be shouting 'little englander' at any movement to re-patriot powers to westminster from europe.

First Up

Deleted User wrote: »

There is the opportunity to create something radically different. A federal UK (including England) with significant powers devolved to national or regional assemblies and Westminster dealing only with matters that can only be addressed at UK level.

A second chamber elected on a regional basis operating something like the US senate to hopefully act as a check on london-centric policy making.

It is unlikely to happen, and it's nothing to do with me I suppose - but that's what they should be looking to do. Whatever the vote now the status quo is not an option (which on balance is a good thing)

If I thought there was anything terribly wrong with the current arrangements I might agree but for me it needs a few tweaks more than anything radical. The bravehearts won't agree of course but their argument has little enough to do with reality anyway.

First Up

Deleted User wrote: »

It was a tongue in cheek remark.

There are plenty of people (like Farage) who are fierce keen on working together when wrapped in the union jack and less so when it means 'being ruled by brussels'.

And on the other hand, you can guarantee that plenty of pro-independence posters will be shouting 'little englander' at any movement to re-patriot powers to westminster from europe.

Inasmuch as those pushing for UK withdrawal from the EU have some gymnastics ahead, I agree. But anyone advocating Scotland staying in the UK AND the UK staying in the EU is being consistent - and right on both counts.

BringBackMick

Spoke to a lad today who told me that a 'Yes' will win with 54% of vote.

First Up

BringBackMick wrote: »

Spoke to a lad today who told me that a 'Yes' will win with 54% of vote.

That's it settled so. Does he work for a bookie by any chance?

Iwasfrozen

First Up wrote: »

It can't be a No landslide looking at the SNP's numbers but it will be comfortably defeated. What happens thereafter will be in the context of wider issues about devolved government across the UK. There are already loud calls from other regions who object to what looks like Scotland negotiating special deals for itself. It will continue for a few years yet but after Thursday they will be able to safely store the ballot boxes in Scotland for the foreseeable future.

Excellent I hope it does. I've said before on here that I would favor a US style federal United Kingdom with four parliaments for the four historic regions and Westminster serving as a federal parliament. This would strengthen the Union in the long term. Of course it would require a constitution but that's no bad thing.

eeepaulo

BringBackMick wrote: »

Spoke to a lad today who told me that a 'Yes' will win with 54% of vote.

Did he ask you to cross his palm with silver just before

dlouth15

BringBackMick wrote: »

Spoke to a lad today who told me that a 'Yes' will win with 54% of vote.

A lad you say?

Dyr

dlouth15 wrote: »

A lad you say?

Aye, a lad.

*taps nose*

BringBackMick

He works for a high street Bookmaker.

He says 80% of bets taken have been on 'Yes'

He says we are seeing an unfair reflection of the vote as the rich 'No' voters are have the clod to get coverage in the media etc.

He says on the day the Yes victory could be quite significant.

Bowlardo

BringBackMick wrote: »

He says 80% of bets taken have been on 'Yes'

.

When it comes to gambling 80% are wrong all of the time

Madam

Bowlardo wrote: »

When it comes to gambling 80% are wrong all of the time

Plucked that straight out of your head did you?:)

I Heart Internet

BringBackMick wrote: »

He works for a high street Bookmaker.

He says 80% of bets taken have been on 'Yes'

He says we are seeing an unfair reflection of the vote as the rich 'No' voters are have the clod to get coverage in the media etc.

He says on the day the Yes victory could be quite significant.

One could suggest that a majority of No voters are "hidden Nos". They don't make a fuss about it but come out of the woodwork on the day.

Just like nobody every admits to voting for Fianna Fail or the Conservative Party, but loads do.....

tvc15

BringBackMick wrote: »

He works for a high street Bookmaker.

He says 80% of bets taken have been on 'Yes'

He says we are seeing an unfair reflection of the vote as the rich 'No' voters are have the clod to get coverage in the media etc.

He says on the day the Yes victory could be quite significant.

If the bookies are taking 80% of their bets on Yes and still offering 4 to 1 odds you can be fairly ****ing sure they think No will win

BringBackMick

tvc15 wrote: »

If the bookies are taking 80% of their bets on Yes and still offering 4 to 1 odds you can be fairly ****ing sure they think No will win

Why? I never mentioned anything about volumes traded.

Iwasfrozen

tvc15 wrote: »

If the bookies are taking 80% of their bets on Yes and still offering 4 to 1 odds you can be fairly ****ing sure they think No will win

We can be fairly certain No will win it at this stage.

Now the governments Scottish and UK have to get to work strengthening the union and repairing all the damage and bad blood this referendum has caused. I know SNP won't like it but I would hope they have the good grace to put their own feelings aside and respect the will of the people.

Madam

Well its 11/4 on a Yes vote, 2/7 for a No with Paddy Power

Fratton Fred

Piliger wrote: »

I agree completely. It makes me proud that our ancestors had the balls to break away from the British Empire, and I have nothing against the British. The Scots are such a distinctive and proud nation, it is horrible to see them being ruled for so many hundreds of years by Westminster and still unable to bring themselves to break free of the Empire's shilling.

How can they break away from themselves?

dlouth15

Madam wrote: »

Well its 11/4 on a Yes vote, 2/7 for a No with Paddy Power

Odds have been fairly steady the last few days. Slight lengthening on the no side from 1 to 4 yesterday to 2 to 7 today.

Madam

dlouth15 wrote: »

Odds have been fairly steady the last few days. Slight lengthening on the no side from 1 to 4 yesterday to 2 to 7 today.

Ladbrokes have a different take I'm afraid:p http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome

First Up

BringBackMick wrote: »

Why? I never mentioned anything about volumes traded.

What odds did he offer?

WakeUp

Madam wrote: »

Well its 11/4 on a Yes vote, 2/7 for a No with Paddy Power

those odds look about right to me if the polls are anything to go by. that's a short price for a yes if the bookmakers are convinced it's going to be a no. I know it's only a two horse race but still .so 3 and a 1/3 to one on. a friend of mine who is in the bookie business once told me that when they give odds of 1/2 in their minds its basically even money. I think the vote is to close to call the numbers tell me that the bookies are hedging on a no but they aren't sure. interesting.

Peppa Pig

Madam wrote: »

Ladbrokes have a different take I'm afraid:p http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome

I agree the bookies are generally right but for Lisbon 1 they were offering 2/7 on a Yes vote.
Got that one wrong.

R P McMurphy

WakeUp wrote: »

those odds look about right to me if the polls are anything to go by. that's a short price for a yes if the bookmakers are convinced it's going to be a no. I know it's only a two horse race but still .so 3 and a 1/3 to one on. a friend of mine who is in the bookie business once told me that when they give odds of 1/2 in their minds its basically even money. I think the vote is to close to call the numbers tell me that the bookies are hedging on a no but they aren't sure. interesting.

The bookies will adjust according to where the money is going and lay off on the exchanges to cover. Odds alcan be incorrect and offer decent value in some cases. Look at odds on the English team whenever they play. Patriotic money driving the price down

WakeUp

R P McMurphy wrote: »

The bookies will adjust according to where the money is going and lay off on the exchanges to cover. Odds alcan be incorrect and offer decent value in some cases. Look at odds on the English team whenever they play. Patriotic money driving the price down

Yep that's true. 9 times out of 10 I would oppose a 1/2-3 fav if the value is there depending on the horse and race of course. I just think what we've seen in the polls so far it's looking very close. Thursday is going to be quite exciting I read somewhere that the result in Fife should be a good indicator as to which way it's going to swing not sure if that's accurate or not though it's what I read. we shall see.