Scottish Independence discussion area

NIMAN

I feel when it comes to the crunch, the gap might be wider than we expect.

I can see the NO coming out with 55% of the vote.

Piliger

statesaver wrote: »

Three polls out at the same time saying N0 52% - Yes 48% Scottish Daily Mail and 2 others that escape me now.

Even after all the scare stories of the last week it's a statistical tie, that's great news for the Yes side. I thought be would be a greater gap.

As you correctly say that is a tie considering the error in these polls is probably as high as 6%. I think people's desire to be free of Westminster rule will win the day.

NIMAN

... and while on the subject, wtf was Bob Geldof doing pontificating on the Union in the news.

How does it affect him? He's an Irishman, lets the Scots decide what they want to do themselves.

Attention-seeking git.

Kermit.de.frog

scream

I suspect people will end up sticking with what they know, especially those that are still undecided. When people aren't sure about something new, they tend not to jump.

NIMAN

I think the campaign by the NO side over recent days will do enough to scare the undecided into sticking with the Union.

Plenty of negative chat, about not being able to come back, higher prices, big businesses moving away etc etc. Might just make some people think a little and perhaps to stick with what they know rather than the unknown.

The NO side ran a mostly negative campaign, and I think it will work for them in the end.

eire4

First Up wrote: »

An independent Scotland would be as much a bastion of capitalism as it is now. The SNP were not nicknamed the Tartan Tories for nothing.
Some people seem to be confusing the independence movement with some sort of social revolution. One more example of the ill-informed and half baked thinking of many Yessers.

Voting for independance is not voting for the SNP though. You seem to be a little confused about that yourself given your post implies that is what a yes vote is.

Scottie99

NIMAN wrote: »

I think the campaign by the NO side over recent days will do enough to scare the undecided into sticking with the Union.

Plenty of negative chat, about not being able to come back, higher prices, big businesses moving away etc etc. Might just make some people think a little and perhaps to stick with what they know rather than the unknown.

The NO side ran a mostly negative campaign, and I think it will work for them in the end.

This negativity has been going on for 12/18months. This week was no shock to the Scottish people..

Prediction 60/40 yes

Fratton Fred

NIMAN wrote: »

... and while on the subject, wtf was Bob Geldof doing pontificating on the Union in the news.

How does it affect him? He's an Irishman, lets the Scots decide what they want to do themselves.

Attention-seeking git.

You might ask Madam and Dub in Glasgow the same question.

eire4

Scottie99 wrote: »

This negativity has been going on for 12/18months. This week was no shock to the Scottish people..

Prediction 60/40 yes

Wow 60-40 yes that is a bold prediction. All the polls suggesting there is still a large number of undecided voters but that turnout is expected to be high so your expecting most of the undecided voters will go for Independance then I take it.

Scottie99

First Up wrote: »

An independent Scotland would be as much a bastion of capitalism as it is now. The SNP were not nicknamed the Tartan Tories for nothing.
Some people seem to be confusing the independence movement with some sort of social revolution. One more example of the ill-informed and half baked thinking of many Yessers.

Tartan Tories - that saying goes way back into 70s.
The SNP are a different animal from that now, I'd put them in the left of centre bracket.
Half Baked? Do you research and don't just read the mainstream media for your news.

A Dub in Glasgo

Fratton Fred wrote: »

You might ask Madam and Dub in Glasgow the same question.

You might and it is an easy answer, I have lived here for 21 years and I am entitled to vote. Mr Geldolf on the other hand.....

Smiles35

Fratton Fred wrote: »

You might ask Madam and Dub in Glasgow the same question.

But they are'nt famous Irish people though. If he had done that earlier in the issue he would have got even more of an awkward eye.

namloc1980

I hope the Scots will be able to see through the no sides campaign of fear and intimidation. I fear though that the scare tactics will work.

Scottie99

eire4 wrote: »

Wow 60-40 yes that is a bold prediction. All the polls suggesting there is still a large number of undecided voters but that turnout is expected to be high so your expecting most of the undecided voters will go for Independance then I take it.

Undecided, another 120K have added themselves to the register, polls have been iffy. I just think the Irish here are not getting the true feelings of what is actually happening. Rte and the rest seems to pick up all the info from London and report that.
There was 5000 in Glasgow demo at BBC, Aberdeen 1000 at their studios. Hundreds of people having been at meeting nightly. An example in my home town Dundee - 500 attended a meeting there and 300 were locked out! It's mad..

Here a photo from this weekend and there are more like it..
Anyway, I'm off to Scotland now - see you in a week (hopefully nursing a sore one)

eire4

eire4 wrote: »

Wow 60-40 yes that is a bold prediction. All the polls suggesting there is still a large number of undecided voters but that turnout is expected to be high so your expecting most of the undecided voters will go for Independance then I take it.

Assuming that the undecided vote is split 48-52 (the same as the latest poll) then the final result will be close to NO 53% or thereabouts.

Still looking like a close NO will get it.

Scottie99

Deleted User wrote: »

Assuming that the undecided vote is split 48-52 (the same as the latest poll) then the final result will be close to NO 53% or thereabouts.

Still looking like a close NO will get it.

Did you build in the margin of error. At BEST because it's unknown I.e referendum it's 3%

A Dub in Glasgo

I am not as optimistic, some of the soft Yes are going soft No especially with what has been done over the last 10 days

Barely There

Scottie99 wrote: »

This negativity has been going on for 12/18months. This week was no shock to the Scottish people..

Prediction 60/40 yes

God love your innocence.


The 'Yes' side aren't going to come within an ass's roar of a result.

cloud493

I think it'll either be close, maybe 51/49 no, or more likely, a fairly clear win for no, 60/40 no maybe.

First Up

Scottie99 wrote: »

Tartan Tories - that saying goes way back into 70s.
The SNP are a different animal from that now, I'd put them in the left of centre bracket.
Half Baked? Do you research and don't just read the mainstream media for your news.

Yes, Donald Trump and Rupert Murdoch are well known supporters of left of centre parties.

I assume you have familiarised yourself with the SNP's origins in former Tory seats and its many internal ideological struggles over the years in an effort to differentiate itself from Labour.

I know that Yes voters aren't looking beyond a piss-up tomorrow or Friday night but as a serious student of these matters, I assume you have also considered what Scotland's political make-up would look like after independence, once the N in SNP is redundant.

Two left of centre parties? Think about it.

Smiles35

Sainthood for Billy?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXvSuue4WvE

Crooked Jack

First Up wrote: »

Yes, Donald Trump and Rupert Murdoch are well known supporters of left of centre parties.

I assume you have familiarised yourself with the SNP's origins in former Tory seats and its many internal ideological struggles over the years in an effort to differentiate itself from Labour.

I know that Yes voters aren't looking beyond a piss-up tomorrow or Friday night but as a serious student of these matters, I assume you have also considered what Scotland's political make-up would look like after independence, once the N in SNP is redundant.

Two left of centre parties? Think about it.

This is exactly the kind of contemptuous condescension that has been the hallmark of the No Campaign and will push undecideds in favour of a yes and get independence over the line.

Akrasia

I think the NO side will win this by more than 5%

Fear tends to trump hope. There are lots of reasons to vote no and not as many reasons to vote yes.

I'd like to see the yes side win though, if only for the spectator sport of watching a nation build itself in real time.

I don't buy the fear stories by the no side. If there is a yes vote, Scotland will be fine.

First Up

Crooked Jack wrote: »

This is exactly the kind of contemptuous condescension that has been the hallmark of the No Campaign and will push undecideds in favour of a yes and get independence over the line.

That's right -ignore the facts and focus on the perceived insult. What will the national flag be - a giant chip on someone's shoulder?

Fratton Fred

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

You might and it is an easy answer, I have lived here for 21 years and I am entitled to vote. Mr Geldolf on the other hand.....

Lives in the UK and is entitled to an opinion, or is it only opinions you agree with that are acceptable?

tigger123

The referendum is tomorrow? With results trickling in on Friday?

Barely There

The Scotch are loving the attention that the close poll results are giving the referendum.

However, they're not remotely interested in full independence from the UK.

A lot of posters claiming that the 'Yes' side are going to win are going to look pretty politically naive when the result comes in.

There will be a substantial majority in favour of remaining in the UK - minimum of 10%, probably more.

A Dub in Glasgo

First Up wrote: »

but as a serious student of these matters, I

Better go an do some more homework then

circadian

Barely There wrote: »

The Scotch are loving the attention that the close poll results are giving the referendum.

However, they're not remotely interested in full independence from the UK.

A lot of posters claiming that the 'Yes' side are going to win are going to look pretty politically naive when the result comes in.

There will be a substantial majority in favour of remaining in the UK - minimum of 10%, probably more.

Where'd you get the 8 ball?

Barely There

circadian wrote: »

Where'd you get the 8 ball?

Oh, you won't have to wait very long to see I'm right.

A Dub in Glasgo

tigger123 wrote: »

The referendum is tomorrow? With results trickling in on Friday?

32 council area results should start to come in from 2am with the national result announced about 8am. The only recounts allowed are the council area ones

A Dub in Glasgo

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Lives in the UK and is entitled to an opinion, or is it only opinions you agree with that are acceptable?

You are extrapolating something here. I have not said he is not entitled to his opinion. You asked someone else to ask me why I am expressing my opinion here. I will be voting in the referendum, Geldolf will not as he does not reside in Scotland.

Michael D Not Higgins

I'll be voting no, but I don't care for the likes of Geldof sticking his fat head in the spotlight.

SEPT 23 1989

The No side will win this

a Yes result is too much of a jump into the unknown

tigger123

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

32 council area results should start to come in from 2am with the national result announced about 8am. The only recounts allowed are the council area ones

So it will all be done and dusted by the time most people get to work on Friday ... crazy!

R P McMurphy

R P McMurphy wrote: »

Well of course for the initial pricing some bookies will guage prices and put them up. Others follow suit looking at levels of betting and prices matched in bookies and exchanges. Prices move because too much money has been bet on one outcome giving the bookie too much of a liability. To reduce liability, some lay off on exchanges and all by boosting the price on the opposite outcome. That is how bookies operate. Anyone that doesn't try to balance the book won't be in business long

In a competitive market you can't 'boost the price' on the opposite outcome. The existence of exchanges means that you'd get filled in immediately with arbers or just people spotting value and taking it.

Ultimately bookies have a small amount of wriggle room but they'll never post up prices that are innacurate in order to balance a book. They will either lay off as you say, or just restrict how much can be staked on the outcome that is 'bad' for them.

The prevalent idea that bookies 'balance' the book and that odds only reflect liabilities is just not true. Bookies are happy to be in the hole for a lot of money if they believe they have their odds right.

fryup

tigger123 wrote: »

So it will all be done and dusted by the time most people get to work on Friday ... crazy!

shure in ireland we wait till the next morning before we start counting......whats the big hurry??

why are they so eager to start counting in the uk anytime there'e an election/referendum

is it not better to have your counters well rested so as to prevent any mistakes

Happyman42

Genuinely can't call this one. I change my mind every few hours... 'Yes will win, Yes surely can't win'.
The tremendous plus for somebody like me is the way the debate has happened and that it has happened at all. There is nothing to fear in having a discussion about shared futures, win or lose for either side, it has all been a very healthy excercise. Next up...The Irish Question.

Berserker

fryup wrote: »

shure in ireland we wait till the next morning before we start counting......whats the big hurry??

why are they so eager to start counting in the uk anytime there'e an election/referendum

is it not better to have your counters well rested so as to prevent any mistakes

They seem very eager to get the counting done as quickly as possible. Do we still have those voting machines? That'll give them instant results.

La_Gordy

Noblong wrote: »

Sainthood for Billy?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXvSuue4WvE

Ah he looked fairly bet there.

Fratton Fred

La_Gordy wrote: »

Ah he looked fairly bet there.

I saw Billy at the Grand Canal theatre a couple of years ago. Age is not treating him well, but he is still and his memory is going a bit.

Still the comic genius he has always been though.

Berserker

Barely There wrote: »

However, they're not remotely interested in full independence from the UK.

A lot of posters claiming that the 'Yes' side are going to win are going to look pretty politically naive when the result comes in.

There will be a substantial majority in favour of remaining in the UK - minimum of 10%, probably more.

I can't see it being that clear a victory, for either side. The polls are rarely that far off. I think that the undecided voters will end up as 'No' votes and they have made up their minds already but they do not want to commit, for fear of being categorized as unpatriotic.

Hoop66

I was talking to my aunt & uncle, who live in Stewarton in Ayrshire, the other day. They would both be No voters, but one thing they said was that they were amazed at how it has awakened people politically. There's been local meetings where people who haven't voted in years were going along and having their point of view heard. So if nothing else comes out of it, perhaps at least some people will become more involved issues that affect their own futures, whether it's in an independent Scotland or as part of the UK.

I'd love to see Scotland make a go of it, and I think better to try and fail than not to try at all.

I'd still be desperate for a No vote if I lived in England, mind.

Berserker

Hoop66 wrote: »

I'd love to see Scotland make a go of it, and I think better to try and fail than not to try at all.

That is easy for you or I to say but a Scottish citizen needs to be a little bit more responsible than that. Failure could lead to hardship for generations to come. Honestly, if Scotland fell on hard times, I would feel for the people but I would also hope and expect that our government would offer them financial support by purchasing some of their oil and gas at a discounted rate, ahem, if you know what I mean.

Hoop66 wrote: »

I'd still be desperate for a No vote if I lived in England, mind.

Why? Any English person I know says that it is Scotland's decision and they are happy and confident that they can deal with whatever consequences that arise from a Yes vote. England is still a very wealthy country with or without Scotland.

fryup

there seems to be a bullying element to the YES campaign

the way ed milliband was heranged in the shopping mall yesterday didn't look good

Hoop66

Berserker wrote: »

...Why? Any English person I know says that it is Scotland's decision and they are happy and confident that they can deal with whatever consequences that arise. England is still a very wealthy country with or without Scotland.

Because an independent Scotland will do away with 40 Labour MPs and leave England/Wales under the Tories for years to come.

Berserker

Hoop66 wrote: »

Because an independent Scotland will do away with 40 Labour MPs and leave England/Wales under the Tories for years to come.

If the people of England and Wales vote Tory then they must be happy with a Tory government. You might not wish for that personally but they obviously do.

pablomakaveli

fryup wrote: »

there seems to be a bullying element to the YES campaign

the way ed milliband was heranged in the shopping mall yesterday didn't look good

I've noticed that the Yes side screams persecution and bullying a lot but they're just as bad. Both sides of the debate have come out looking badly in my opinion.

R P McMurphy

Deleted User wrote: »

In a competitive market you can't 'boost the price' on the opposite outcome. The existence of exchanges means that you'd get filled in immediately with arbers or just people spotting value and taking it.

Ultimately bookies have a small amount of wriggle room but they'll never post up prices that are innacurate in order to balance a book. They will either lay off as you say, or just restrict how much can be staked on the outcome that is 'bad' for them.

The prevalent idea that bookies 'balance' the book and that odds only reflect liabilities is just not true. Bookies are happy to be in the hole for a lot of money if they believe they have their odds right.

There has been arbing since the exchanges opened but try taking advantage of price differentials on a consistent basis and you will be refused your bet in the bookmakers. They were quick to spot arbers and refuse bets on the basis that only bookies should be able to do it.