Scottish Independence discussion area

Berserker

pablomakaveli wrote: »

I've noticed that the Yes side screams persecution and bullying a lot but they're just as bad. Both sides of the debate have come out looking badly in my opinion.

It has gotten very petty of late and the serious questions haven't really been discussed properly. I mean, what is Scotland going to do about currency, EU membership, existing UK military facilities within Scotland, for example? If I was a voter in this referendum, I would like to see the plan/s of action for these topics before going to the polls.

charlietheminxx

Berserker wrote: »

It has gotten very petty of late and the serious questions haven't really been discussed properly. I mean, what is Scotland going to do about currency, EU membership, existing UK military facilities within Scotland, for example? If I was a voter in this referendum, I would like to see the plan/s of action for these topics before going to the polls.

I've read material on both sides of the debate and these issues have been discussed at length, it's just not being shown well in the media.

Fratton Fred

charlietheminxx wrote: »

I've read material on both sides of the debate and these issues have been discussed at length, it's just not being shown well in the media.

Discussed and entirely fudged over.

kingchess

a lot of UK politicians were against a devolved Government in Scotland in 1979 as well-in 2014 now they want to give more power to it and that is not even on the ballot paper,.Politicians making vows that (A)there is no guarantee their own back benchers will back it and (B)if they do back it they will have to give the same deal to England,Wales and Northern Ireland which will make big changes to how the UK is governed,

iownaphone

the Q's on the referendum paper itself "Should Scotland be an independent country?". Would mean that the majority would vote YES.
Its the UK goverments response to that eventuality that will swing those undecided voters towards voting NO.
The UK government has stated that if a simple majority of the votes cast are in favour of independence, then "Scotland would become an independent country after a process of negotiations".
"the process of negotiations" will instil fear into allot of Voters. Fear that Westminster will try and tie Scotland into knots before they even get started as an "independent country".

Muahahaha

Peppa Pig wrote: »

I agree the bookies are generally right but for Lisbon 1 they were offering 2/7 on a Yes vote.
Got that one wrong.

You're right, I made money on that. I also made money betting on the Seanad referendum to be defeated, despite the bookies being convinced it would be abolished the No side won the day and my bet came in with odds of 5/1 which had been placed only 10 days before polling day. 5/1 is unreal odds in a two horse race but just goes to show how wrong bookies can be.

I am tempted to put a soft tenner on a Yes vote as for a two horse race that many say is too close to call odds of 3/1 is excellent value. My head says it will be a No vote, when people are unsure they hold back and vote no and there is somewhere in the region of 15% of people still undecided but intending to vote.

For the Yes side to pull this off they needed more than a couple of polls showing them in the lead to give a consistent pattern. Thats not to say its a doomed campaign, they may yet have a trick up their sleeve- if reports of young people intending to vote in numbers never seen before in Scotland hold true and if reports of people queuing up to register to vote for their first ever time are also true and it plays into the Yes camps hands then it could give them that vital 1-1.5% edge that will win this. Pollsters place weightings to peoples liklihood to actually vote by referencing previous turnouts for that persons social demographic, location, gender, etc. So if they use weightings from previous elections and the working class and younger voters buck the expected trends and vote in numbers never seen before then we could be in for a shock result for sure.

I've read a good few journalists say that the Yes campaign has become more than a campaign and morphed into a social movement. If that is the case and there are waves of hysteria and optimism crossing Scotland, like a replica of the 2008 'Obama Effect' then the Yes side could yet pull this off. I'd love to be on the ground there and get a better sense of whats going on but if it has turned into the social movement that some claim then all bets are off.

Barely There

PP's odds have already slipped this morning from 2/9 to 1/5 for the 'No.

I got a nice bet on earlier this week at 1/4 - it's like buying money.

Berserker

iownaphone wrote: »

"the process of negotiations" will instil fear into allot of Voters. Fear that Westminster will try and tie Scotland into knots before they even get started as an "independent country".

If Scotland votes 'Yes' and they get fleeced then it's down to the incompetence of the people they have elected to negotiate on their behalf. Westminister will do what's best for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. To do anything but that would be negligent. As I said previously, if an independent Scotland falls on hard times, I would be extremely disappointed with our government if they didn't "offer a helping hand" in return for some of Scotland's resources. An independent Scotland is a source of competition for us. A fact that many here seems to be missing.

A Dub in Glasgo

fryup wrote: »

there seems to be a bullying element to the YES campaign

the way ed milliband was heranged in the shopping mall yesterday didn't look good

Chanted at by Yes folk, the jostling was from the media with the No folk trying to block out any Yes sign that might appear on the TV. The majority of the folk appearing around Miliband were media

Berserker

Berserker wrote: »

An independent Scotland is a source of competition for us. A fact that many here seems to be missing.

I definitely agree with this.

Salmond has already floated the idea of cutting corporate tax and it's obvious where he is getting that idea from. Almost the first thing an independent Scotland will be looking to do is make itself attractive for inward investment and that will be a direct competition with us.

A Dub in Glasgo

David McWilliams said as much the other day

iownaphone

Berserker wrote: »

If Scotland votes 'Yes' and they get fleeced then it's down to the incompetence of the people they have elected to negotiate on their behalf. Westminister will do what's best for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. To do anything but that would be negligent. As I said previously, if an independent Scotland falls on hard times, I would be extremely disappointed with our government if they didn't "offer a helping hand" in return for some of Scotland's resources. An independent Scotland is a source of competition for us. A fact that many here seems to be missing.

That's exactly what they will do yes. Its the majority of undecided voters that will vote "No" because of the "negotiations"

Menas

Some thoughtful analysis from a few Glasgow rangers fans.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmGjiokfQ2A

Wurzelbert

Berserker wrote: »

[...]An independent Scotland is a source of competition for us. A fact that many here seems to be missing.

i take it us is the roi? as i’ve said previously, competition can also be a good thing...ireland might just have to try a little harder, invest more in infrastructure and all, maybe do more to clean up the financial/banking mess etc. and generally aim for higher standards in a number of ways...

TheBlock

I can see a Yes by about 55 -58%. Just a gut feeling from my scottish mates based all over the country...

A Dub in Glasgo

http://www.spf.org.uk/2014/09/spf-media-release-independence-referendum-2/

SPF Media Release – Independence Referendum

SCOTTISH POLICE FEDERATION
5 Woodside Place, Glasgow, G3 7QF

MEDIA RELEASE

The Scottish Police Federation represents all police officers in the ranks of constable, sergeant, inspector and chief inspector, police cadets and special constables, over 18,500 people, 98% of all police officers in Scotland.

To: News Editor
Date: 17 September 2014
Subject: Independence Referendum

In response to increased press reports and comment implying increased crime and disorder as a consequence of the Independence Referendum Brian Docherty, Chairman of the Scottish Police Federation said;

“The Police Service of Scotland and the men and women who work in it should not be used as a political football at any time and especially so in these last few hours of the referendum campaign.

As I have previously stated the referendum debate has been robust but overwhelmingly good natured.

It was inevitable that the closer we came to the 18th of September passions would increase but that does not justify the exaggerated rhetoric that is being deployed with increased frequency. Any neutral observer could be led to believe Scotland is on the verge of societal disintegration yet nothing could be further from the truth.

Scotland’s citizens are overwhelmingly law abiding and tolerant and it is preposterous to imply that by placing a cross in a box, our citizens will suddenly abandon the personal virtues and values held dear to them all.

At this time it is more important than ever that individuals be they politicians, journalists or whoever should carefully consider their words, maintain level heads and act with respect. Respect is not demonstrated by suggesting a minority of mindless idiots are representative of anything. One of the many joys of this campaign has been how it has awakened political awareness across almost every single section of society. The success enjoyed by the many should not be sullied by the actions of the few.

Police officers must be kept free from the distractions of rhetoric better suited to the playground that the political stump. If crime has been committed it will be investigated and dealt with appropriately but quite simply police officers have better things to do than officiate in spats on social media and respond to baseless speculation of the potential for disorder on and following polling day”

ENDS

tigger123

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I definitely agree with this.

Salmond has already floated the idea of cutting corporate tax and it's obvious where he is getting that idea from. Almost the first thing an independent Scotland will be looking to do is make itself attractive for inward investment and that will be a direct competition with us.

They can talk aboue a low corporate tax rate all they want, but it doesn't mean that the EU will allow it. Scotland have no leverage in their application for EU membership, Brussels will be holding all the cards. And there's no way they'll allow Scotland join and then undercut every other Member State.

Now, if they decide against EU membership they can set their corporate tax rate at anything they want, but they'll essentially be turning the country into a tax haven and nothing more. Import duty (amongst other difficulties) will still be levied when they enter the UK and /or the rest of the EU.

Berserker

tigger123 wrote: »

They can talk aboue a low corporate tax rate all they want, but it doesn't mean that the EU will allow it. Scotland have no leverage in their application for EU membership, Brussels will be holding all the cards. And there's no way they'll allow Scotland join and then undercut every other Member State.

Now, if they decide against EU membership they can set their corporate tax rate at anything they want, but they'll essentially be turning the country into a tax haven and nothing more. Import duty (amongst other difficulties) will still be levied when they enter the UK and /or the rest of the EU.

I'd imagine that it will be the later for the first while, at least, as an independent Scotland won't be a member of the EU. If they want to join the EU, they will need to serve their EU apprenticeship and therefore they will need to tow the EU line, which will prevent them for undercutting us, as you said. That'll take time though, as I'd imagine that an independent Scotland would need to hold a referendum to decide whether or not it wants to be a member of the EU first, to uphold Salmond's promise of equality and fairness. If they vote 'Yes' to that then the application procedure would commence.

Wurzelbert wrote: »

i take it us is the roi? as i’ve said previously, competition can also be a good thing...ireland might just have to try a little harder, invest more in infrastructure and all, maybe do more to clean up the financial/banking mess etc. and generally aim for higher standards in a number of ways...

Yes, the RoI is us. FDI has probably been the only consistently good aspect of our economy over the past few decades. The IDA policy has been a rare and resounding success for us. There are no positives from competition on the FDI front. We have cornered that market in this part of the world and they only beneficiary will be the investor, as they can play the potential suitors (Scotland and us) against each other to get the best deal.

tigger123

tigger123 wrote: »

They can talk aboue a low corporate tax rate all they want, but it doesn't mean that the EU will allow it. Scotland have no leverage in their application for EU membership, Brussels will be holding all the cards. And there's no way they'll allow Scotland join and then undercut every other Member State.

Now, if they decide against EU membership they can set their corporate tax rate at anything they want, but they'll essentially be turning the country into a tax haven and nothing more. Import duty (amongst other difficulties) will still be levied when they enter the UK and /or the rest of the EU.

I suppose that's true. It also demonstrates the limitations of independence. For the record I think that scotland will be joining the EU at the moment of independence, I cannot envisage Brussels blocking it. But yes they will have to give up some sovereignty.

It does beg the question as to what they will get out of independence other than a warm and fuzzy feeling. In the EU, not free to compete for inward investment, using sterling (probably) but not controlling it. To be honest that all sounds like a recipe for disaster.

I wonder if they would not be better going the whole hog, floating 'the scottish pound' and staying out of Europe?

Iwasfrozen

Deleted User wrote: »

I suppose that's true. It also demonstrates the limitations of independence. For the record I think that scotland will be joining the EU at the moment of independence, I cannot envisage Brussels blocking it. But yes they will have to give up some sovereignty.

It does beg the question as to what they will get out of independence other than a warm and fuzzy feeling. In the EU, not free to compete for inward investment, using sterling (probably) but not controlling it. To be honest that all sounds like a recipe for disaster.

I wonder if they would not be better going the whole hog, floating 'the scottish pound' and staying out of Europe?

The problem about floating a new currency is that it immediately devalues upon release.

This would be fine but it would mean Scottish mortgages taken out in sterling would relatively increase in value. No wonder Alex Salmond hasn't brought up creating a new Scottish pound. I can't imagine that being a referendum winner.

Wurzelbert

Berserker wrote: »

[...]
Yes, the RoI is us. FDI has probably been the only consistently good aspect of our economy over the past few decades. The IDA policy has been a rare and resounding success for us. There are no positives from competition on the FDI front. We have cornered that market in this part of the world and they only beneficiary will be the investor, as they can play the potential suitors (Scotland and us) against each other to get the best deal.

well, in that case it would be welcome to the real world for ireland...welcome to real europe where nations compete with each other for global business and all...though i can understand where you're coming from...

Iwasfrozen

Wurzelbert wrote: »

well, in that case it would be welcome to the real world for ireland...welcome to real europe where nations compete with each other for global business and all...though i can understand where you're coming from...

We don't want to compete. Competition is bad for us.

Scottish independence means competition for us which is a bad thing. Are you following?

Laois_Man

Deleted User wrote: »

I definitely agree with this.

Salmond has already floated the idea of cutting corporate tax and it's obvious where he is getting that idea from. Almost the first thing an independent Scotland will be looking to do is make itself attractive for inward investment and that will be a direct competition with us.

The UK are cutting Corporation Tax in their budget every year.....heading towards our rates....whether there's an independent Scotland or not. They're already about 3 years into it and more to come

In any case, with yesterdays OECD recommendations, the benefits of offering lower Corporation tax will probably greatly diminish.

Wurzelbert

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

We don't want to compete. Competition is bad for us.

Scottish independence means competition for us which is a bad thing. Are you following?

i fully understand, i dont’t really want to have to go to work every day either...

oppenheimer1

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

We don't want to compete. Competition is bad for us.

Scottish independence means competition for us which is a bad thing. Are you following?

In the event of a No vote, the increased devolved powers for the Scottish parliament will probably see Scotland competing with Ireland on tax for FDI anyway.

Change is coming either way and Ireland will have to ready itself to compete in this new world.

eeepaulo

I think irelands coporate tax rate is competing with other eu countries using the euro.

They make their european bases here for that reason.

Kermit.de.frog

Ireland has 50 years experience of competing for investment and winning a lot of the time and has all the agencies which are top at going out and securing investment from abroad. I don't think that is going to change tbh.

Wurzelbert

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Ireland has 50 years experience of competing for investment and winning a lot of the time and has all the agencies which are top at going out and securing investment from abroad. I don't think that is going to change tbh.

yeah, of course competing simply means lowering the tax rate and offering loads of loopholes and more or less dodgy tax evasion models and schemes, like in apple’s case...though i am not enough of a finance expert to explain all or any of those in detail, so don't ask...but i too see no reason for ireland to panic just yet...

Piliger

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Ireland has 50 years experience of competing for investment and winning a lot of the time and has all the agencies which are top at going out and securing investment from abroad. I don't think that is going to change tbh.

I agree. There is plenty of investment to go around, and we have done extremely well for fifty years.

Iwasfrozen

Piliger wrote: »

I agree. There is plenty of investment to go around, and we have done extremely well for fifty years.

And we will continue to do well once this referendum is defeated.

kingchess

yeah, SCOTLAND should bear in mind the effect of a Yes vote will have on Irish jobs,

Barely There

It will be interesting to see the extent of the 'No' side's victory tomorrow.

If it's by a large enough margin (say over 15%), there won't be another referendum for at least another 50 years.

First Up

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Better go an do some more homework then

A whole sentence too much for you to digest?

blinding

Barely There wrote: »

It will be interesting to see the extent of the 'No' side's victory tomorrow.

If it's by a large enough margin (say over 15%), there won't be another referendum for at least another 50 years.

50 years is a long time in politics; To paraphrase that well known quote !

InTheTrees

A little strange to think of scotland possibly being independant and northern ireland still being part of the UK isnt it?

Fratton Fred

blinding wrote: »

50 years is a long time in politics; To paraphrase that well known quote !

50 years ago, the Scottish unionist party were getting more MPs than Labour.

Barely There

InTheTrees wrote: »

A little strange to think of scotland possibly being independant and northern ireland still being part of the UK isnt it?

No, not really.

Happyman42

Barely There wrote: »

It will be interesting to see the extent of the 'No' side's victory tomorrow.

If it's by a large enough margin (say over 15%), there won't be another referendum for at least another 50 years.

Must be great to have a crystal ball all to yourself.

Piliger

Happyman42 wrote: »

Must be great to have a crystal ball all to yourself.

It's that old thing 'say it often enough and it will happen'.

InTheTrees

Barely There wrote: »

No, not really.

Two islands. A third of one is an independent country and a third of one belongs to the other.

kingchess

funny thing is that those who were more informed about the VOTE were more inclined to vote Yes according to an article in the Guardian a few weeks ago.maybe it will be down to head v heart at the end of the day(THIS DAY),anyway it is good to see so many people in Scotland so involved in the future of their Country and holding the political bosses to account,which we here in Ireland should do and make sure what they do is for our benefit and not their own benefit only.

Barely There

InTheTrees wrote: »

Two islands. A third of one is an independent country and a third of one belongs to the other.

And?

Berserker

Deleted User wrote: »

For the record I think that scotland will be joining the EU at the moment of independence, I cannot envisage Brussels blocking it. But yes they will have to give up some sovereignty.

They will not be joining straight away. José Manuel Barroso has confirmed this. Also, if an independent Scotland gains membership, it will cause issues for the likes of Spain wrt Catalonia, so they will probably block their membership for a few years.

Deleted User wrote: »

I wonder if they would not be better going the whole hog, floating 'the scottish pound' and staying out of Europe?

Absolutely not. The currency exchange alone would be a nightmare for businesses in Scotland. It's probably the worst case scenario for them.

InTheTrees wrote: »

A little strange to think of scotland possibly being independant and northern ireland still being part of the UK isnt it?

Not really. Scotland has plenty of resources through which it has the potential to make it one it's own. N.I. is an economic basket case without the backing of the UK. It wouldn't last a wet weekend outside the UK.

Crooked Jack

First Up wrote: »

That's right -ignore the facts and focus on the perceived insult. What will the national flag be - a giant chip on someone's shoulder?

What exactly is factual about this?

I know that Yes voters aren't looking beyond a piss-up tomorrow or Friday night

Care to provide a link to your sources?

blinding

With all the bitching the Scots are going to have to listen to after the referendum they might as well go for independence.

There is nothing worse than having to listen to why did you not do something when you had the chance !

First Up

Berserker wrote: »

They will not be joining straight away. José Manuel Barroso has confirmed this. Also, if an independent Scotland gains membership, it will cause issues for the likes of Spain wrt Catalonia, so they will probably block their membership for a few years.



Absolutely not. The currency exchange alone would be a nightmare for businesses in Scotland. It's probably the worst case scenario for all.



Not really. Scotland has plenty of resources through which it has the potential to make it one it's own. N.I. is an economic basket case without the backing of the UK. It wouldn't last a wet weekend outside the UK.

Fish, whisky and depleting oil.

Berserker

First Up wrote: »

Fish, whisky and depleting oil.

40 years worth of oil and gas. Depleting and badly managed though. You are correct on that. Personally, I wouldn't tie the welfare of future generations on it.

InTheTrees

Barely There wrote: »

And?

And its a little strange.

First Up

Crooked Jack wrote: »

What exactly is factual about this?


Care to provide a link to your sources?

Read #2023

Call the piss up my opinion based on the dearth of any actual plan for an independent Scotland.

Red Pepper

Barely There wrote: »

It will be interesting to see the extent of the 'No' side's victory tomorrow.

If it's by a large enough margin (say over 15%), there won't be another referendum for at least another 50 years.

The Yes side did win the campaign because the No side were stupid and arrogant.

However it will be a No victory, I have absolutely no doubt in that.

I predict a tighter result of 56%/44%.