Scottish Independence discussion area

First Up

Red Pepper wrote: »

The Yes side did win the campaign because the No side were stupid and arrogant.

However it will be a No victory, I have absolutely no doubt in that.
I predict a tighter result of 56%/44%.

I would agree that having the likes of Cameron and Brown in the campaign didn't help - plus general Scottish resentment at a Tory government.

But in the end the facts speak fro themselves and the Scots aren't stupid (not enough of them anyway.) They will follow the money.

Berserker

Red Pepper wrote: »

However it will be a No victory, I have absolutely no doubt in that.

I predict a tighter result of 56%/44%.

What are you basing that on? It think it will go to the wire. It wouldn't surprise me if it ended up 51%/49%.

InTheTrees wrote: »

And its a little strange.

How is it strange? If they vote 'No', is it not a little strange the the RoI is not part of the UK when everyone else in our group of islands is?

First Up wrote: »

Call the piss up my opinion based on the dearth of any actual plan for an independent Scotland.

As I said previously, I don't have any faith in Salmond in terms of a vision for an independent Scotland, just like you. He reminds me of Labour here before the last general election; i.e. full of socialist waffle. If it's a 'Yes' vote, I can see Salmond and his colleagues waking up on Saturday morning, looking in the bathroom mirror and shouting "Sweet Jesus, what do we do now?".

cloudatlas

Sadly I think it will be a 'no' but very close 54 no 46 Yes.

People who are undecided are more likely to vote for what they already know the safer bet, i.e. No.

The English media have really debased themselves though. I hate all the emotive language used by the No side using the family (divorce, separation) as a metaphor.

Piliger

First Up wrote: »

I would agree that having the likes of Cameron and Brown in the campaign didn't help - plus general Scottish resentment at a Tory government.

But in the end the facts speak fro themselves and the Scots aren't stupid (not enough of them anyway.( They will follow the money.

So you would sell Ireland back to the British Empire for a little extra salary .... wow.

InTheTrees

Berserker wrote: »

Not really. Scotland has plenty of resources through which it has the potential to make it one it's own. N.I. is an economic basket case without the backing of the UK. It wouldn't last a wet weekend outside the UK.

I've been living in the USA for 20 years now so I'm just reflecting on what american friends ask me.

Two little islands, top half of one belongs to the other and top half of the other is wanting independence.

(I do understand the issues involved.)

First Up

Piliger wrote: »

So you would sell Ireland back to the British Empire for a little extra salary .... wow.

I have to marvel at the thought process you went through to draw that conclusion from anything I have said.

Fratton Fred

First Up wrote: »

I have to marvel at the thought process you went through to draw that conclusion from anything I have said.

Piliger is a little confused about this issue. Apparently the British Empire still exists and is holding Scotland captive.

Iwasfrozen

It's quiet amazing how a non existent entity can hold Scotland captive.

InTheTrees

Berserker wrote: »

How is it strange? If they vote 'No', is it not a little strange the the RoI is not part of the UK when everyone else in our group of islands is?

Actually i'd have said one island one nation.

(And I say that as an anglo-irishman born and bred in the republic.)

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Piliger is a little confused about this issue. Apparently the British Empire still exists and is holding Scotland captive.

It is a bit pathetic. When the Yes people can't argue on factual grounds, they eventually resort to this emotive crap about freedom and empires and such.

pablomakaveli

Looking at it now i think the Scots will bottle it tomorrow and vote no.

FWIW i don't think things would be as bad as the No side have claimed but still not as good as the Yes said have claimed either. More likely it'd be somewhere in the middle in that they'd still have some difficulties.

It would be an interesting event to see them become independent but i don't think we'll be seeing it after tomorrow.

Red Pepper

Berserker wrote: »

What are you basing that on? It think it will go to the wire. It wouldn't surprise me if it ended up 51%/49%.

Experience. The Yes side peaked a little too early and the No side got time to retaliate on the one issue that really matters - the economy.

A 51/49 win to the No side would be an astounding victory for the Yes campaign given where they started but I expect the 'Dont-knowers' will come out in droves as No and help give a 56/44 win to No.

Red Pepper

InTheTrees wrote: »

I've been living in the USA for 20 years now so I'm just reflecting on what american friends ask me.

Two little islands, top half of one belongs to the other and top half of the other is wanting independence.

(I do understand the issues involved.)

Go home Yank.

First Up

25 Reasons why we love Scotland

http://www.thepoke.co.uk/2013/06/14/25-reasons-why-we-love-scotland/

end of the road

cloudatlas wrote: »

Sadly I think it will be a 'no' but very close 54 no 46 Yes.

People who are undecided are more likely to vote for what they already know the safer bet, i.e. No.

The English media have really debased themselves though. I hate all the emotive language used by the No side using the family (divorce, separation) as a metaphor.

the no side even using some girl to make a speach about her mother who suffers or suffered from cancer to try emotionally blackmail people. discusting

Red Pepper

end of the road wrote: »

discusting

so true...

Piliger

First Up wrote: »

It is a bit pathetic. When the Yes people can't argue on factual grounds, they eventually resort to this emotive crap about freedom and empires and such.

No facts from you then. No surprise.

Piliger

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

It's quiet amazing how a non existent entity can hold Scotland captive.

There's none so blind as those who will not see.

Happyman42

First Up wrote: »

It is a bit pathetic. When the Yes people can't argue on factual grounds, they eventually resort to this emotive crap about freedom and empires and such.

:pac::pac::pac:



http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-david-cameron-delivers-emotional-plea-for-scotland-to-stay-9734838.html

SpaceTime

I'd suspect that the don't knows will quite likely chicken out in the polling booth and it'll be something like 45:55 against. That's my prediction anyway.

Berserker

SpaceTime wrote: »

I'd suspect that the don't knows will quite likely chicken out in the polling booth and it'll be something like 45:55 against. That's my prediction anyway.

A person who has taken in all the pros and cons of independence and chooses to vote 'No' or 'Yes' on the final day, is a mature intelligent voter not a chicken. Categorizing people who vote against your sentiment on the matter, in such a negative way, says a lot more about you than them, in a negative sense.

eire4

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

In the event of a No vote, the increased devolved powers for the Scottish parliament will probably see Scotland competing with Ireland on tax for FDI anyway.

Change is coming either way and Ireland will have to ready itself to compete in this new world.

Before Scotland can get more devolved powers they would have to pass votes in the commons. That is far from a done deal despite what Cameron or anyone else might say.

Iwasfrozen

eire4 wrote: »

Before Scotland can get more devolved powers they would have to pass votes in the commons. That is far from a done deal despite what Cameron or anyone else might say.

Of course. Because in the UK Parliament is sovereign the constitution can't be changed by referendum alone.

But that's only procedure. Parliament will not vote against the will of the Scottish people.

First Up

Happyman42 wrote: »

:pac::pac::pac:



http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-david-cameron-delivers-emotional-plea-for-scotland-to-stay-9734838.html

Yep, I wouldn't him on my team either.

eire4

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Of course. Because in the UK Parliament is sovereign the constitution can't be changed by referendum alone.

But that's only procedure. Parliament will not vote against the will of the Scottish people.

First off increased devolution is not on the ballot tomorrow so there is no will of the Scottish people in that regard.
Secondly the Scottish members are significantly outnumbered in the commons and the British government is of a style very different in outlook from the majority of Scottish people so to say any increased devolution bill would easily pass the commons is wishful thinking.

First Up

Piliger wrote: »

No facts from you then. No surprise.

Couldn't find #2023 eh?

Let me help; its just after #2022 and just before #2024.

First Up

eire4 wrote: »

First off increased devolution is not on the ballot tomorrow so there is no will of the Scottish people in that regard.
Secondly the Scottish members are significantly outnumbered in the commons and the British government is of a style very different in outlook from the majority of Scottish people so to say any increased devolution bill would easily pass the commons is wishful thinking.

I think that's why the leaders of the three main parties in Westminster (the two in government and Labour) committed to it. They are usually able to deliver their parties' votes.

Devil is in the detail of course but a commitment to devolved powers from the people who can make it happen is a hell of lot a better offer than a leap of faith and bit of flag-waving.

Happyman42

First Up wrote: »

Yep, I wouldn't him on my team either.

The major thrust of the No campaign is scares that have little grounding in reality and tugging emotional heartstrings about the great United Kingdom project/idea that patently hasn't and isn't working.
You have a huge percentage in Scotland who want to leave,
You have a growing number in NI who want a border poll on opting out,
you have cities and regions all watching intently to see what devolution Scotland gets and now talk of a separate English Parliament.

The great project/idea is a shambles and you are watching it break up, maybe not on Friday, but in my opinion it is doomed.

eire4

First Up wrote: »

I think that's why the leaders of the three main parties in Westminster (the two in government and Labour) committed to it. They are usually able to deliver their parties' votes.

Devil is in the detail of course but a commitment to devolved powers from the people who can make it happen is a hell of lot a better offer than a leap of faith and bit of flag-waving.

Personally I think the 3 main London party leaders came up with the increased devolved powers idea as a desperation move when they suddenly realised they might lose.


Your talking about leaps of faith and yet your trumpeting a so called devolved bill that has not actually been produced and voted on so does not actually exist at this moment. Hmm sounds like a leap of faith to me.

First Up

Happyman42 wrote: »

The major thrust of the No campaign is scares that have little grounding in reality and tugging emotional heartstrings about the great United Kingdom project/idea that patently hasn't and isn't working.
You have a huge percentage in Scotland who want to leave,
You have a growing number in NI who want a border poll on opting out,
you have cities and regions all watching intently to see what devolution Scotland gets and now talk of a separate English Parliament.

The great project/idea is a shambles.

Wrong; the major thrust of the NO campaign is pointing out the risks and uncertainties that apply to a myriad of issues - and highlighting the gaps in the YES argument. You chose to characterise such warnings as "scaremongering". Well so is a weather forecast of an impending hurricane.

Your statement that the "UK project idea patently hasn't and isn't working" might need a supporting argument. The UK is the 8th richest country in the world and has the 14th highest standard of living. Of course things can always be better but if you think the UK is a shambles, there's a few countries I could suggest you compare it to.

Iwasfrozen

eire4 wrote: »

First off increased devolution is not on the ballot tomorrow so there is no will of the Scottish people in that regard.
Secondly the Scottish members are significantly outnumbered in the commons and the British government is of a style very different in outlook from the majority of Scottish people so to say any increased devolution bill would easily pass the commons is wishful thinking.

First off it doesn't need to be. The referendum tomorrow is on whether or not Scotland should be an independent country. Devo max won't change that.

Secondly. Scottish MPs being in a minority isn't relevant. No party is going to go back on their promise of greater devolution.

c_man

I hope they go for it, but suspect the No's will edge it out.

First Up

eire4 wrote: »

Personally I think the 3 main London party leaders came up with the increased devolved powers idea as a desperation move when they suddenly realised they might lose.


Your talking about leaps of faith and yet your trumpeting a so called devolved bill that has not actually been produced and voted on so does not actually exist at this moment. Hmm sounds like a leap of faith to me.

I'm trumpeting nothing mate. Of course the devolved powers proposal is part of the election campaign but that doesn't make it unreal and it is a lot more tangible than anything Salmond can offer.

fryup

its kinda like the Australia republic referendum a few years back

it looked like the aussies were set to vote yes and at the last minute there was substantial swing to the no vote that none of the political commentators predicted

i reckon the same thing will happen in scotland

Happyman42

First Up wrote: »

Wrong; the major thrust of the NO campaign is pointing out the risks and uncertainties that apply to a myriad of issues - and highlighting the gaps in the YES argument. You chose to characterise such warnings as "scaremongering". Well so is a weather forecast of an impending hurricane.

Scares about what MIGHT happen, that is basically the thrust of the NO campaign.

Your statement that the "UK project idea patently hasn't and isn't working" might need a supporting argument. The UK is the 8th richest country in the world and has the 14th highest standard of living. Of course things can always be better but if you think the UK is a shambles, there's a few countries I could suggest you compare it to.

I wasn't comparing the UK to anywhere. I was saying that when you have a huge percentage that want to leave, something isn't working.
The UK is breaking up, Friday will be the first public manifestation of it and will be quoted in history books as such. Whatever the outcome of the poll.

Fratton Fred

eire4 wrote: »

Personally I think the 3 main London party leaders came up with the increased devolved powers idea as a desperation move when they suddenly realised they might lose.


Your talking about leaps of faith and yet your trumpeting a so called devolved bill that has not actually been produced and voted on so does not actually exist at this moment. Hmm sounds like a leap of faith to me.

If the liberals and Labour go against their promises, it will kill them in Scotland. Together, they will carry any bill. Remember, there is a coalition government and if the Tories refuse to support a liberal motion, it will bring down the government.

The Rabbit

Trigger Happy wrote: »

Some thoughtful analysis from a few Glasgow rangers fans.

"Every cnut in Dublin is living on the streets"

Bless.

The Rabbit

Does anybody more informed about this issue than myself have an option on what will happen if the No vote is passed?

It seems pretty heated and it is obviously a VERY devisive issue.

Everything to continue as normal Monday morning?

BringBackMick

I hope Scotland stands up for themselves tomorrow and finally frees itself from the shackles of Imperialism.

To the bitter end they are being bullied by the English Establishment and the legacy of British Imperialism. It is disgusting and the NO campaign illustrates exactly why Scotland must seize this opportunity and create a new and better future for themselves and their children.

The first footsteps of Independence will not be straightforward but with time this decision will repay the Scottish courage to make this brave decision.

JC01

Quick question; when is the result expected? Will they even start counting till Friday?

fryup

BringBackMick wrote: »

I hope Scotland stands up for themselves tomorrow and finally frees itself from the shackles of Imperialism.

To the bitter end they are being bullied by the English Establishment and the legacy of British Imperialism.

:rolleyes: sinn fein talk

ffs it wasn't like they were living under longshanks for 500 years

the scots willing played their part in the british empire, you had scottish prime ministers, nearly a fifth of the british armed forces is made up of scots

this has got nothing to do with imperialism its to do with giving the scots more control over their own affairs

BringBackMick

They think the result should be clear enough by the early hours. I'd say we will pretty much know barring a 50.50 deadlock situation by around 4am Friday.

namloc1980

JC01 wrote: »

Quick question; when is the result expected? Will they even start counting till Friday?

Count will start after polls close on Thursday. Expect a result early friday morning.

Happyman42

fryup wrote: »

more control over their own affairs

Funny...I thought that was exactly what Imperialism took away?

First Up

eire4 wrote: »

Personally I think the 3 main London party leaders came up with the increased devolved powers idea as a desperation move when they suddenly realised they might lose.


Your talking about leaps of faith and yet your trumpeting a so called devolved bill that has not actually been produced and voted on so does not actually exist at this moment. Hmm sounds like a leap of faith to me.

Happyman42 wrote: »

Scares about what MIGHT happen, that is basically the thrust of the NO campaign.


I wasn't comparing the UK to anywhere. I was saying that when you have a huge percentage that want to leave, something isn't working.
The UK is breaking up, Friday will be the first public manifestation of it and will be quoted in history books as such. Whatever the outcome of the poll.

Could you move beyond "something isn't working" in offering your prognosis? The Yes campaign is a mish mash of aspiration, resentment, and emotive tripe about imperialism, shackles etc. Scotland is a mature, prosperous, confident country well able to look after itself and use it's membership of the UK and EU to it's advantage. It is ill served by the insecurities and inferiority complex that drives so much superficial nationalism.
The choice is simple; use and build on what you have or throw the pieces up in the air and hope they land to your liking.
I know what I would do and I'm glad to report that most (not all) of my Scottish friends feel the same.

Fratton Fred

BringBackMick wrote: »

I hope Scotland stands up for themselves tomorrow and finally frees itself from the shackles of Imperialism.

To the bitter end they are being bullied by the English Establishment and the legacy of British Imperialism. It is disgusting and the NO campaign illustrates exactly why Scotland must seize this opportunity and create a new and better future for themselves and their children.

The first footsteps of Independence will not be straightforward but with time this decision will repay the Scottish courage to make this brave decision.

The complete lack of knowledge in this thread never ceases to amaze me.

kefir32

BringBackMick wrote: »

I hope Scotland stands up for themselves tomorrow and finally frees itself from the shackles of Imperialism.

To the bitter end they are being bullied by the English Establishment and the legacy of British Imperialism. It is disgusting and the NO campaign illustrates exactly why Scotland must seize this opportunity and create a new and better future for themselves and their children.

The first footsteps of Independence will not be straightforward but with time this decision will repay the Scottish courage to make this brave decision.

don't let facts get in the way of your little rant...... pure ignorance

Happyman42

First Up wrote: »

Could you move beyond "something isn't working" in offering your prognosis? The Yes campaign is a mish mash of aspiration, resentment, and emotive tripe about imperialism, shackles etc.

Stop making stuff up, there has been very little of that in the official debate. It is just a slur and a lie. I think the debate has been hugely informative actually and healthy...certainly healthier than I thought it would be (then Cameron got the wind up him! :rolleyes:)

Scotland is a mature, prosperous, confident country well able to look after itself and use it's membership of the UK and EU to it's advantage. It is ill served by the insecurities and inferiority complex that drives so much superficial nationalism.
The choice is simple; use and build on what you have or throw the pieces up in the air and hope they land to your liking.
I know what I would do and I'm glad to report that most (not all) of my Scottish friends feel the same.

There you have it...I 'know what I would do'.

Wurzelbert

Go Scotland! Make history…

eire4

First Up wrote: »

I'm trumpeting nothing mate. Of course the devolved powers proposal is part of the election campaign but that doesn't make it unreal and it is a lot more tangible than anything Salmond can offer.

The point is the increased devolved powers idea has not been part of the campaign until very recently when the no side realised it was losing ground rapidly. It smacks of a panic measure to me. The yes side is looking for complete independance to make its own decisions as the Scottish people see fit that is very tangible and much more so then a bill that current only exists in theory and may or may not pass a vote in the commons.