Scottish Independence discussion area

clappyhappy

Most of my in laws have already voted this morning. They are in Edinburgh, Inverness and North Uist Outer Hebridies. All are voting No, their heart wants to vote Yes but they think that Scotland would be worse off without the Union. So they have voted with their heads it seems. They think it is going to be so close but a No win. Will be very interesting!!

My OH living here wants a Yes vote.

A Dub in Glasgo

Just back from voting, there were about 20 people in front of us in the queue. I asked for my polling card back for a memento

For such a simple thing as marking an X on a piece of paper, my hands were shaking. I will now try and stay off line for the next 2 days! Might go for a walk in Chatelherault Country Park with my family

pablomakaveli

clappyhappy wrote: »

Most of my in laws have already voted this morning. They are in Edinburgh, Inverness and North Uist Outer Hebridies. All are voting No, their heart wants to vote Yes but they think that Scotland would be worse off without the Union. So they have voted with their heads it seems. They think it is going to be so close but a No win. Will be very interesting!!

My OH living here wants a Yes vote.

I've been to the Hebs and in North Uist a few times.:) Did they vote before today or a few days ago like they do with the islands here on elections?

kingchess

First Up wrote: »

fair enough, so its an independent Wales next - and a sovereign Northern Ireland.[/QUOT did you forget to say an independent England??

SharpshooterTom

Odds shortening like crazy on NO.

Looks like this ones done. Obviously know something we don't.

clappyhappy

pablomakaveli wrote: »

I've been to the Hebs and in North Uist a few times.:) Did they vote before today or a few days ago like they do with the islands here on elections?

They voted this morning, mother in law lives in Berneray and she voted in the community hall there. Most of the older islanders were supporting a No vote when talking to them during the summer hols. Think they are really afraid of losing their pensions and subsidies.

laugh

Does polling work based on calling landline telephones?

If that's the case these polls cannot be considered representative.

97% are registered to vote. Usually in elections youth are under-represented that won't be the case here.

Tox56

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

Odds shortening like crazy on NO.

Looks like this ones done. Obviously know something we don't.

They've been like this for weeks, barring something incredible a yes was never going to happen

SpaceTime

laugh wrote: »

Does polling work based on calling landline telephones?

If that's the case these polls cannot be considered representative.

97% are registered to vote. Usually in elections youth are under-represented that won't be the case here.

No, the market researches aren't that stupid. They'll have called a lot of mobiles and taken a representative sample. Most of them publish their sample selection methodologies.

SharpshooterTom

In the event of a NO vote, whats the next best case the SNP? To get over 45%? Getting as close to 50% as possible will surely mean the independence question is not entirely over (well it is for this generation) but it surely would be possible to go for this again in 15-20 years?

gladrags

moxin wrote: »

How do you know? You a psychic?

Pay no attention,has a history of this.

bilston

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

Odds shortening like crazy on NO.

Looks like this ones done. Obviously know something we don't.

Well I suppose they could be monitoring turnout but presumably that is going to be very high. Maybe they have access to some very early exit polls taken over the first couple of hours of voting. Not sure how legal that would be though for gambling purposes!

First Up

kingchess wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

fair enough, so its an independent Wales next - and a sovereign Northern Ireland.[/QUOT did you forget to say an independent England??

Of course, and if some have their way, an independent Tyneside, an independent Merseyside, an independent Kent......

Mint Sauce

My first comment of this subject. It really seems this will be decided on heart v head, was born in London, but have never considered my self British for a second, and would even make the point of putting down my Nationality as English (now Irish since holding an Irish Passport), but have always liked the idea of a Union of England, Wales, and Scotland. Whilst all three have their own cultures and identieties, they also have things in common and a shared past.

A yes vote, would possibly lead to break up of the Union if passed, with Wales maybe following suit, and maybe even London looking to seperate them selfs. Really dont know how it would effect N Ireland or what their ideas might be, if it was passed. Whilst Yes vote may mean a reduced spending or allocation of funds arcross the Union, it will be hard to know how Scotland will commence going it on their own, and what thier future relationship with the remainder of the British Isles, Europe, and the World will be like.

Personally, based on my knowledge/understanding of it, if I was in Scotland, I'd be voting No.

laugh

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014#mediaviewer/File:Scottish_independence_polls_graphic.svg

^ Seems tight in recent polls.

Guy:Incognito

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

In the event of a NO vote, whats the next best case the SNP? To get over 45%? Getting as close to 50% as possible will surely mean the independence question is not entirely over (well it is for this generation) but it surely would be possible to go for this again in 15-20 years?

Wouldn't that be keep asking the people till you get the result you want, like everyone on here doesn't like?

Dyr

First Up wrote: »

kingchess wrote: »

Of course, and if some have their way, an independent Tyneside, an independent Merseyside, an independent Kent......

And freedom for tooting at last!!

laugh

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Wouldn't that be keep asking the people till you get the result you want, like everyone on here doesn't like?

If a high proportion of people over 70 vote no then it makes sense to do it again in 10 years.

Amirani

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Wouldn't that be keep asking the people till you get the result you want, like everyone on here doesn't like?

People are free to continuously say no.

moxin

SpaceTime wrote: »

No, the market researches aren't that stupid. They'll have called a lot of mobiles and taken a representative sample. Most of them publish their sample selection methodologies.

They haven't polled all the newly regged voters(20%+ perhaps), the people who never vote at elections and of course the young. Pollsters havent a clue at the outcome, no-one does.

SharpshooterTom

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Wouldn't that be keep asking the people till you get the result you want, like everyone on here doesn't like?

Well Quebec has had two referendums, the second one in 1995 got over 48%, losing by a whisker.

The pro independence group have waited for the economic downturn to surpass first before a third referendum is held (take note Scottish nationalists)

If Scotland can get upwards of 45%, I don't see why the same situation cant apply.

First Up

laugh wrote: »

If a high proportion of people over 70 vote no then it makes sense to do it again in 10 years.

When today's over 60's will have taken their place.

Barely There

moxin wrote: »

They haven't polled all the newly regged voters(20%+ perhaps), the people who never vote at elections and of course the young. Pollsters havent a clue at the outcome, no-one does.

The result is a foregone conclusion and has been for some time.
I can't believe you could get odds at 1/4 even up to this week on a 'No'.


The interest is in seeing how much the 'yes' vote is defeated by.

moxin

Barely There wrote: »

The result is a foregone conclusion and has been for some time.
I can't believe you could get odds at 1/4 even up to this week on a 'No'.


The interest is in seeing how much the 'yes' vote is defeated by.

How is it a foregone conclusion? Do you have magical powers of foresight?

Akrasia

laugh wrote: »

If a high proportion of people over 70 vote no then it makes sense to do it again in 10 years.

Or next year, considering the low life expectancy of many areas in Scotland

laugh

First Up wrote: »

When today's over 60's will have taken their place.

Todays 6 to 16 year olds will actually "take their place".

First Up

laugh wrote: »

Todays 6 to 16 year olds will actually "take their place".

Not as over 70's.

First Up

moxin wrote: »

How is it a foregone conclusion? Do you have magical powers of foresight?

Not sure if Paddy Power's foresight is magical or not but they have gone to 1/5 on a No.

SharpshooterTom

moxin wrote: »

How is it a foregone conclusion? Do you have magical powers of foresight?

Whats swinging my opinion that's its pretty much over is the bookies, some are shortening close to 1/7 now.

laugh

First Up wrote: »

Not as over 70's.

But the proportion of people idealising the Union for reasons from the past will reduce.

Michael D Not Higgins

Betfair are apparently already paying out on a No vote. Make of that what you will.

moxin

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

Whats swinging my opinion that's its pretty much over is the bookies, some are shortening close to 1/7 now.

Bookies must have sampled a few voters who voted already quite early in the morning and jumped to conclusions from that.

Akrasia

One thing that strikes me, is that it is illegal for the media to report on exit polls until after the voting is closed because reporting one way or another could affect the outcome of the vote, but bookies are allowed to 'declare a winner' and pay-out while most people haven't even voted yet.

There's something wrong there. It's possible that the bookies declaring the victory to the No side, could be a factor in some potential voters deciding whether or not to make the trip to the voting booths

First Up

laugh wrote: »

But the proportion of people idealising the Union for reasons from the past will reduce.

What is the evidence that older No voters are idealising the past? Which bits of the past are they supposed to be attached to?

Donkey Oaty

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

Betfair are apparently already paying out on a No vote. Make of that what you will.

Don't know if it has been mentioned, but that was on their fixed book accounts, not the peer exchange, and one guy on twitter said that they only had a liability of around 20k on that. I don't know if that figure is accurate, but if it is, it's not much more than a deeply cynical marketing exercise.

First Up

moxin wrote: »

Bookies must have sampled a few voters who voted already quite early in the morning and jumped to conclusions from that.

More a short hop than a jump.

pablomakaveli

clappyhappy wrote: »

They voted this morning, mother in law lives in Berneray and she voted in the community hall there. Most of the older islanders were supporting a No vote when talking to them during the summer hols. Think they are really afraid of losing their pensions and subsidies.

I do know a sizeable amount of the population on Benbecula rely on the MOD for employment as well so that not too surprising to hear.

Incidentally i've walked around Berneray a couple of times as well. It's beautiful little island.

An Riabhach

Heart says yes,head says no.

An Independent Scotland would struggle financially and economically without having the UK to fall back on,and the Nationalist leaders have not really convinced the yes voters otherwise.

Harry Palmr

clappyhappy wrote: »

They voted this morning, mother in law lives in Berneray and she voted in the community hall there. Most of the older islanders were supporting a No vote when talking to them during the summer hols. Think they are really afraid of losing their pensions and subsidies.

If its a yes the islands are going to be an interesting poser for the new Scotland, Orkney and Shetland are bound to see a chance for some real "localism" probably by selling Scotland their oil

cruiserweight

Approximately a fifth of the registered voters have voted by 10am according to Martyn McLaughlin of the Scotsman, quite good for the first 3 hours

laugh

First Up wrote: »

What is the evidence that older No voters are idealising the past? Which bits of the past are they supposed to be attached to?

Being the children of British war heroes for example.

First Up

laugh wrote: »

Being the children of British war heroes for example.

What does that have to do with anything?

moxin

cruiserweight wrote: »

Approximately a fifth of the registered voters have voted by 10am according to Martyn McLaughlin of the Scotsman, quite good for the first 3 hours

Further on from the link above, lovely No supporters displaying their pride in Edinburgh, very similar to what you would see in Belfast! :rolleyes:
www.twitter.com/pontyphoto/status/512326137130000384/photo/1

Happyman42

Any links that confirm Bookies paying out already?
You get this kinda nonsense emanating from one side or the other at elections.
Link to a source.

cruiserweight

moxin wrote: »

Further on from the link above, lovely No supporters displaying their pride in Edinburgh, very similar to what you would see in Belfast! :rolleyes:
https://twitter.com/pontyphoto/status/512326137130000384/photo/1

That is Glasgow, outside the city chambers just around the corner from where I work. I have seen a few groups of people like that after work in the last few weeks. There were a few more than usual yesterday, I guess because of the yes gathering on George Square.

Henry Sidney

moxin wrote: »

Further on from the link above, lovely No supporters displaying their pride in Edinburgh, very similar to what you would see in Belfast! :rolleyes:
www.twitter.com/pontyphoto/status/512326137130000384/photo/1

Proud patriots, or is that only ok for the yes side?? God forbid anyone should be proud of being british, eh?

wendell borton

Noblong wrote: »

And Hong Kong..

Don't forget kosovo and those Russian succesionist states in Georgia etc.

cruiserweight

Happyman42 wrote: »

Any links that confirm Bookies paying out already?
You get this kinda nonsense emanating from one side or the other at elections.
Link to a source.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-betfair-pay-out-on-no-vote-1-3543402

Betfair are the only ones I have heard about so far. Seems like a marketing tactic to me

gladrags

First Up wrote: »

What does that have to do with anything?

It means that they could be voting based on there father/grandfathers participation in wars.

Which is very likely.

gladrags

First Up wrote: »

What does that have to do with anything?

It means that they could be voting based on there father/grandfathers participation in wars.

Which is very likely.