Scottish Independence discussion area

Red Pepper

moxin wrote: »

How is it a foregone conclusion? Do you have magical powers of foresight?

It is not hard to deduce that it will be a strong No. 56/44 No.

First Up

gladrags wrote: »

It means that they could be voting based on there father/grandfathers participation in wars.

Which is very likely.

Very likely? On what do you base that hilarious theory?
All evidence shows that the No vote is overwhelmingly based on economic concerns and older voters demonstrate a wider range of awareness and concerns than more impetuous and less well informed younger voters.
There might be a few Colonel Blimps around but Scotland will vote with it's head and with it's pocket in mind.

clappyhappy

pablomakaveli wrote: »

I do know a sizeable amount of the population on Benbecula rely on the MOD for employment as well so that not too surprising to hear.

Incidentally i've walked around Berneray a couple of times as well. It's beautiful little island.

Yes the MOD and the NHS are huge employers there.

Berneray is a little piece of heaven on earth, (without the midgies).

Donkey Oaty

Final opinion poll just out now: (IPSO/Mori) - 53 No, 47 Yes - significantly, only a third of voters think the Yes will win.

Looking good for the No side now.

Barely There

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

Betfair are apparently already paying out on a No vote. Make of that what you will.

You can still get 1/5 on PP.

Borrow €5,000 and whack it on - it'll be the easiest €1k you'll ever make.

keeponhurling

Lapin wrote: »

This old rubbish again.

How the hell do these history contortionists manage to weave this crap into every discussion.

Go on then, enlighten us, how many years was Ireland controlled by Britain?
What's your start and end dates?
Please also provide the optimum trial period from your perspective before any conclusions could be drawn in its success or lack of.

Always good to meet a historian like yourself., especially such a straight player who tells it exactly as it was

Donkey Oaty

Barely There wrote: »

You can still get 1/5 on PP.

Borrow €5,000 and whack it on - it'll be the easiest €1k you'll ever make.

You can still get 1/5 on the Betfair exchange as well.

Harry Palmr

Donkey Oaty wrote: »

Final opinion poll just out now: (IPSO/Mori) - 53 No, 47 Yes - significantly, only a third of voters think the Yes will win.

Looking good for the No side now.

Surely there is no polling made public today. There will be no exit poll either.

Donkey Oaty

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Surely there is no polling made public today. There will be no exit poll either.

That's what I thought, but in fact there is. IPSO/Mori released theirs in the last hour, and it's currently being discussed on the mainstream news blogs (e.g. Guardian).

Edit note: That's not an exit poll, by the way - just the final pre-referendum poll.

kingchess

the VOW that the 3 main party leaders signed to give more powers to Scotland was already under attack from their own backbenchers and now Claire Perry,the Rails minister(con)has complained about giving "financial party bags" to appease the YES voters which will have to be paid for by the rest of the UK,-it seems the promises of devo-max which is not on the ballot paper will have to be watered down after all.

laugh

First Up wrote: »

Very likely? On what do you base that hilarious theory?
All evidence shows that the No vote is overwhelmingly based on economic concerns and older voters demonstrate a wider range of awareness and concerns than more impetuous and less well informed younger voters.
There might be a few Colonel Blimps around but Scotland will vote with it's head and with it's pocket in mind.

Based on fear mongering.

http://www.businessforscotland.co.uk/10-key-economic-facts-that-prove-scotland-will-be-a-wealthy-independent-nation/

First Up

kingchess wrote: »

the VOW that the 3 main party leaders signed to give more powers to Scotland was already under attack from their own backbenchers and now Claire Perry,the Rails minister(con)has complained about giving "financial party bags" to appease the YES voters which will have to be paid for by the rest of the UK,-it seems the promises of devo-max which is not on the ballot paper will have to be watered down after all.

"Have to be"?

SharpshooterTom

Barely There wrote: »

You can still get 1/5 on PP.

Borrow €5,000 and whack it on - it'll be the easiest €1k you'll ever make.

You can still get evens on a YES vote falling between 45.01-50. The YES vote will still come out and vote very passionately so getting over 45 is still very possible given every single poll has said this over the past fortnight.

drumswan

Barely There wrote: »

You can still get 1/5 on PP.

Borrow €5,000 and whack it on - it'll be the easiest €1k you'll ever make.

PL won't lay 5 on this, it's a novelty market. They might give you 25 quid

Donkey Oaty

drumswan wrote: »

PL won't lay 5 on this, it's a novelty market. They might give you 25 quid

30k available on Betfair on those odds at the moment.

Harry Palmr

Donkey Oaty wrote: »

That's what I thought, but in fact there is. IPSO/Mori released theirs in the last hour, and it's currently being discussed on the mainstream news blogs (e.g. Guardian).

Edit note: That's not an exit poll, by the way - just the final pre-referendum poll.

Pretty shocked at that to be honest. Polling day should be free of such influences.

kingchess

First Up wrote: »

"Have to be"?

yes??

First Up

laugh wrote: »

Based on fear mongering.

http://www.businessforscotland.co.uk/10-key-economic-facts-that-prove-scotland-will-be-a-wealthy-independent-nation/

So have you abandoned your theory on older voters doing it because of their grandfathers war record?

First Up

kingchess wrote: »

yes??

Care to elaborate on why?

First Up

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

You can still get evens on a YES vote falling between 45.01-50. The YES vote will still come out and vote very passionately so getting over 45 is still very possible given every single poll has said this over the past fortnight.

I think 45 is a far as I would go on the spread.

kingchess

First Up wrote: »

Care to elaborate on why?

which words are you having problems with??

First Up

kingchess wrote: »

which words are you having problems with??

Just those two - "have to".

kingchess

read the post and then argue your point if you can,

Donkey Oaty

The Daily Mail's intimidation round-up reports that:

Police in Airdrie, North Lanarkshire, said a man in his 70s had a No poster taken from his mobility scooter and...

The rest of the report is so shocking that I'm warning those of a nervous disposition not to read it.

"and replaced with Yes stickers as he was shopping."

gladrags

First Up wrote: »

So have you abandoned your theory on older voters doing it because of their grandfathers war record?

It seems perfectly reasonable that older voters will vote based on historical and cultural events,including wars.

Just as younger voters will vote for other reasons,male and female ditto,the list is endless.

There are many factors why voters will vote a certain way,individually and collectively.

First Up

kingchess wrote: »

read the post and then argue your point if you can,

I'm asking you to justify your claim that commitments to devolution will "have to" be watered down. Says who, and on what authority do they say it?

who the fug

First Up wrote: »

Care to elaborate on why?

Simple there is an election next, feather bedding Scotland is not going to play well

First Up

gladrags wrote: »

It seems perfectly reasonable that older voters will vote based on historical and cultural events,including wars.

Just as younger voters will vote for other reasons,male and female ditto,the list is endless.

There are many factors why voters will vote a certain way,individually and collectively.

Pure speculation and contrary to the evidence gained from the research that has clearly shown that the overwhelming issues of concern are economic.

First Up

who the fug wrote: »

Simple there is an election next, feather bedding Scotland is not going to play well

Devolved decision making is not featherbedding. Devolved decision making is all that has been promised.

kingchess

First Up wrote: »

I'm asking you to justify your claim that commitments to devolution will "have to" be watered down. Says who, and on what authority do the say it?

did you notice the words "it seems..".? in other words it seems that all members of the main parties are not on board,now feel free to argue your own point.... remember to read the post as the answer is contained there.

tayto lover

Really hope they vote Yes but have my doubts.
The fear of the unknown is an awful thing.
A Yes vote would be very brave. Hope they have the guts. Independence being handed to a nation without a shot being fired.

First Up

kingchess wrote: »

did you notice the words "it seems..".? in other words it seems that all members of the main parties are not on board,now feel free to argue your own point.... remember to read the post as the answer is contained there.

Your post would have been improved by adding the words "to me" just after "it seems".
Then we could discuss your expertise in deduction.

Meathlass

Planning to stay up late to watch the results but have to be up at 6.30am for work.

Will there be tallies, like in Ireland which would give a possibility that we might know the result before 2am?

SharpshooterTom

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Why would they be less likely to cheer him on?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2760229/Has-Andy-Murray-come-favour-Scottish-independence-Tennis-star-tweets-No-campaign-negativity-totally-swayed-view.html

The reaction to Andy Murray's decision to support YES to independence has been massively negative. There's been over 3000 comments on the Daily Mail to his decision and its pretty damn ugly so far. Twitter's worse though, the HuffPost UK put twitter responses such as "he should've been shot and killed in Dunblane" etc.

I hope this doesn't affect his support, but you would be mad to suggest this wont make any difference. He's effectively said no at the idea of being British, and expects support from the British crowd next at Wimbledon? We'll see how this one plays out.

I certainly hope its not representive of DM and twitter. The press will eat him alive over this, his brother Jamie has come out in support of YES as well.

kingchess

First Up wrote: »

Your post would have been improved by adding the words "to me" just after "it seems".
Then we could discuss your expertise in deduction.

did you read the post ??I quoted Caire Perry,read it and then we could discuss your expertise in assumptions.

fatboypee

Red Pepper wrote: »

It is not hard to deduce that it will be a strong No. 56/44 No.

I suspect this also. Shame part of me, for the pure devilment wishes they get the YES. Aside from this, a lot of English people I've spoken to since all this is going on want Scotland to go and I can see the point there. (apologies if i'm late on this one), as, as much as it is the right of Scots to look for independence, its equally the right of other parts of the union to want rid of them if that is the attitude..

To that point, the real worst outcome would be a marginal NO. Notwithstanding the political fallout, or the damage to Brand Scotland in terms of investment or trust, and as much as (in my opinion) a marginal NO would somewhat massage the ego of Salmond in defeat, the whole debate has caused the relationship with England in particular,to be considerably damaged / eroded by this. Natural, you may argue, given the gravity of what is at stake, but after this, its not likely to go back to "it never happened"..

Hope the YES gets it..

Donkey Oaty

Meathlass wrote: »

Planning to stay up late to watch the results but have to be up at 6.30am for work.

Will there be tallies, like in Ireland which would give a possibility that we might know the result before 2am?

The Telegraph has a good timetable of events here, showing the indications at different times of the night.

BringBackMick

The odds are firmly stacked against the Yes side now but it will only make victory that bit sweeter.

Polls are still within the margin of error and turnout will be very important.

What did Sean Gallagher poll at in the last poll before the election ? :P

recylingbin

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

I hope this doesn't affect his support, but you would be mad to suggest this wont make any difference. He's effectively said no at the idea of being British, and expects support from the British crowd next at Wimbledon? We'll see how this one plays out.
l.

He's always said he was Scottish not British. I seem to remember an interview, from earlier in his career, where he coorected a journalist that called him British.
He doesn't expect support anywhere.
He'll still get support at Wimbledon because there is less of your knobhead tribalism there.

Adamantium

The amount of BS we've been dragged through on TV/papers by the no campaign is horrendous. Once in a lifetime opportunity to make an actual change, will be sorely disappointed if the people of Scotland don't take their chance.

tayto lover

recylingbin wrote: »

He's always said he was Scottish not British. I seem to remember an interview, from earlier in his career, where he coorected a journalist that called him British.
He doesn't expect support anywhere.
He'll still get support at Wimbledon because there is less of your knobhead tribalism there.

I thought he was only Scottish when he lost???
Well according to sports commentators anyway.

tayto lover

Adamantium wrote: »

The amount of BS we've been dragged through on TV/papers by the no campaign is horrendous. Once in a lifetime opportunity to make an actual change, will be sorely disappointed if the people of Scotland don't take their chance.

It could be a vote for bravery or for cowardice.

gladrags

First Up wrote: »

Pure speculation and contrary to the evidence gained from the research that has clearly shown that the overwhelming issues of concern are economic.

I am sure you are correct,the world and his mother know that Economics play a major part in how people vote,in any election of this type.

BUT

It is not the only one.

I will now leave you to figure this out.

Fratton Fred

tayto lover wrote: »

It could be a vote for bravery or for cowardice.

But most likely common sense and pragmatism.

eeepaulo

Andy Murray is one of the few people in his position that actually pays tax in the uk, i think he has a right to his opinion.

First Up

kingchess wrote: »

did you read the post ??I quoted Caire Perry,read it and then we could discuss your expertise in assumptions.

And she has the final say, does she?

briany

tayto lover wrote: »

It could be a vote for bravery or for cowardice.

Either way it's a chance to have a direct impact on the future of the country. Something that cynics tell us is an increasingly rare thing in the world of politics.

kingchess

First Up wrote: »

And she has the final say, does she?

do not make your problems extracting information from a post my problem.

fleet_admiral

eeepaulo wrote: »

Andy Murray is one of the few people in his position that actually pays tax in the uk, i think he has a right to his opinion.

Andy 'Scottish' Murray when he loses, Andy 'British' Murray when he wins

LorMal

Akrasia wrote: »

One thing that strikes me, is that it is illegal for the media to report on exit polls until after the voting is closed because reporting one way or another could affect the outcome of the vote, but bookies are allowed to 'declare a winner' and pay-out while most people haven't even voted yet.

There's something wrong there. It's possible that the bookies declaring the victory to the No side, could be a factor in some potential voters deciding whether or not to make the trip to the voting booths

I am not an expert on bookies by any means but I do think a No vote was almost totally inevitable (I called it on here as 60/40 to the No side yesterday).
I believe that people speak with bravado but lose their nerve in the secrecy of the polling booth.
Therefore, for a 'Yes' vote to be victorious I think it needed t be ahead by 10%-15% in the polls yesterday. In the end it was more like 3% behind.
The bookies know this and fully expected a No. However, they kept their odds relatively even in order to attract punters to have a punt on Yes (as many have said they have done here).
Once voting has started, they have adjusted the odds to reflect what they really believe will happen.