Scottish Independence discussion area

DLMA23

In the event of a Yes vote, would Scotland have to negotiate a share of the existing British military or would Scotland have it's own independent defence force?

Would serving Scottish personnel want to transfer to the new Scottish forces or honour their oath & continue serving the United Kingdom?

The Diabolical Monocle

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6vDzf-wSbk

pedro1234

Tweet from Referendum Live (@ReferendumLive): "We have received reports that some polling stations may be closing early due to 100% attendance #indyref #yesscot"

That's unheard of.

The tweet was since deleted and replaced with this: https://twitter.com/ReferendumLive/status/512597517109051392

Lnaa

FloatingVoter wrote: »

Alex Salmond and Dave Cameron get butt naked and have a bare knuckle boxing match. Which was what Rupert Murdoch suggested in the first place.

Way out... Begbie and Phil Mitchell have a slugfest.

First Up

eire4 wrote: »

They will do just fine. I think EU membership assuming they wanted it would be a fairly straighforward negotiation.

I take it you have made yourself conversant with the detail of the Article 48 and Article 49 possibilities?
Or am I scaremongering again?

FloatingVoter

Expect a rise in the Yes vote towards 10 PM as drunk people begin to find the polling station. Fret not, their wives will have voted No earlier. Several times in fact due to the 16 and 17 year old revolutionaries being asleep in their beds.

Berserker

eire4 wrote: »

They will do just fine. I think EU membership assuming they wanted it would be a fairly straighforward negotiation.

Why do people keep saying this. That is not the case.

- Barroso has stated that they will have to go through the application procedure.
- Spain, for example, will block their application as it will cause them issues wrt Catalonia.

At best, an independent Scotland, would have to wait for membership for a few years, behind the countries who are currently going through the process.

Kermit.de.frog

The higher the turnout the better for the yes side in my opinion given 16 and 17 year olds can vote.

However I think fear will rule in the end and it will be no.

First Up

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

BBC said yesterday that there were no exit polls for this?

You can be sure that the bookies have had people at the polls since morning and are using the data. That's why "No" odds have shortened so much today.

BringBackMick

Do you reckon we will get any counts before 2am?

Want to see this unfold but unsure should I hit bed at 10ish and get up 3/4am or will I have missed the tallies?

Berserker

pedro1234 wrote: »

Tweet from Referendum Live (@ReferendumLive): "We have received reports that some polling stations may be closing early due to 100% attendance #indyref #yesscot"

That's unheard of.

No matter what the result is, it has certainly gotten the Scottish people engaged with politics, which can only be a good thing.

pedro1234

@ReferendumLive:
2014-09-18 16:43:43 UTC
We are getting increasing reports of people changing their mind in the voting both from No to Yes #indyref #yesscot #VoteYes

Interesting.

pedro1234

Berserker wrote: »

No matter what the result is, it has certainly gotten the Scottish people engaged with politics, which can only be a good thing.

Agreed, it's fantastic that some places had a 100% turnout.

If only we followed suit with our elections.

FloatingVoter

BringBackMick wrote: »

Do you reckon we will get any counts before 2am?

Want to see this unfold but unsure should I hit bed at 10ish and get up 3/4am or will I have missed the tallies?

They'll probably know by 3 AM unless it really is razor tight. Given the way the bookies and the money is flowing, I'd imagine the No vote will be taking shape by 3 to 4 AM. Sleep well.

SharpshooterTom

First Up wrote: »

You can be sure that the bookies have had people at the polls since morning and are using the data. That's why "No" odds have shortened so much today.

Agreed the bookies aren't stupid. Its just a matter of how much NO wins by.

I fear they're going to get close to 60%, in some comfortable landslide. The whole thing will be like a wet fart if that happens.

BringBackMick

FloatingVoter wrote: »

They'll probably know by 3 AM unless it really is razor tight. Given the way the bookies and the money is flowing, I'd imagine the No vote will be taking shape by 3 to 4 AM. Sleep well.

I will be staying up so, I have 4 cans of beer in the coldest part of the fridge!

BringBackMick

I've seen the drift on the exchanges, available at 5/1 but the bookies are only offering 7/2

dubscottie

pedro1234 wrote: »

Tweet from Referendum Live (@ReferendumLive): "We have received reports that some polling stations may be closing early due to 100% attendance #indyref #yesscot"

That's unheard of.

The tweet was since deleted and replaced with this: https://twitter.com/ReferendumLive/status/512597517109051392

Maybe the yes campaign intimidation is working

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/09/18/1411049564730_wps_35_Independence_referendum_S.jpg

keith16

BringBackMick wrote: »

I will be staying up so, I have 4 cans of beer in the coldest part of the fridge!

I wish I could stay up. I also have 4 beers residing in my fridges polar regions. But I will drink them right now.

Highflyer13

pedro1234 wrote: »

Agreed, it's fantastic that some places had a 100% turnout.

If only we followed suit with our elections.

Its an Independence referendum tbf. Much bigger importance than a general election.

Lnaa

2/11 for no now on Paddy Power... barely any point waiting for the result.

Lnaa

Tonight's coverage...

BBC 1: Scotland Decides, on from 10.40pm until 6am, is presented by Huw Edwards live from Glasgow.

BBC 2 will be showing Newsnight with Kirsty Wark from 10.30pm until 11.20pm, bringing you the latest news on the referendum.

ITV: Scotland Decides will be on from 10.40pm until 6am. Alastair Stewart will be presenting the live coverage and crucial counts. Analysis will come from Tom Bradby, Joel Hills and Richard Edgar.

I'd say you could get better odds on Kirsty Wark getting her neeps and títties out before the morning than on Scotland voting yes.

Ould Mr Brennan

BringBackMick wrote: »

I will be staying up so, I have 4 cans of beer in the coldest part of the fridge!

Half tempted to do this myself. Got a pizza in the freezer too so hmmm???

oppenheimer1

Lnaa wrote: »

2/11 for no now on Paddy Power... barely any point waiting for the result.

Paddy doesn't know. Paddy is responding to people laying bets and managing its risk. In a normal vote this is a good indicator - but much of the money in this vote is from regions where people do not have a say.

If Paddy knew betting would be suspended. They don't give money away.

Sunnyisland

Lnaa wrote: »

2/11 for no now on Paddy Power... barely any point waiting for the result.

How do PP know ?

Lnaa

realies wrote: »

How do PP know ?

Just because media outlets haven't gone to the trouble of making exit polls doesn't mean the bookies haven't. They just won't release their information because that would affect betting.

Sunnyisland

Guide to referendum night
4.2m
registered voters
97% of electorate
7am polls open
10pm polls close,

counting begins 32 counts across Scotland


6:30-7:30am expected declaration
Source: Elections Scotland

Lnaa

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Paddy doesn't know. Paddy is responding to people laying bets and managing its risk. In a normal vote this is a good indicator - but much of the money in this vote is from regions where people do not have a say.

If Paddy knew betting would be suspended. They don't give money away.

They don't know. You can bet they have a good idea though.

BringBackMick

Lnaa wrote: »

2/11 for no now on Paddy Power... barely any point waiting for the result.

Very little difference between the odds now and last night.

Currently No is @ 1.19

Last night No was @ 1.24

Overwhelming favourites, but just look at it like this, you often see horses beaten at them prices! Especially when you back them!

SharpshooterTom

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Paddy doesn't know. Paddy is responding to people laying bets and managing its risk. In a normal vote this is a good indicator - but much of the money in this vote is from regions where people do not have a say.

If Paddy knew betting would be suspended. They don't give money away.

But a lot of people aren't putting money on for the craic, they must be confident from hearsay that things are looking favourable for NO at this point.

I’m not staying up for the result, I'll be getting up when they declare most likely.

Lnaa

BringBackMick wrote: »

Very little difference between the odds now and last night.

Currently No is @ 1.19

Last night No was @ 1.24

Overwhelming favourites, but just look at it like this, you often see horses beaten at them prices! Especially when you back them!

Very few two horse races in the equine industry though.

pedro1234

Lnaa wrote: »

Just because media outlets haven't gone to the trouble of making exit polls doesn't mean the bookies haven't. They just won't release their information because that would affect betting.

That's the dumbest thing you've ever said.

Lnaa

pedro1234 wrote: »

That's the dumbest thing you've ever said.

Pray tell... do explain why... otherwise your remark just smells of hyperbole.

gladrags

In the event of controversy, with regard to the legitimacy of the outcome, voting procedures and vote counting etc.

Who is responsible for overseeing this ,does anyone know?

Are the observers,if present, national or international, or from the UK?

Thanks

Sunnyisland

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

But a lot of people aren't putting money on for the craic, they must be confident from hearsay that things are looking favourable for NO at this point.

Maybe there all reading this thread lol :-)

pedro1234

Lnaa wrote: »

Pray tell... do explain why... otherwise your remark just smells of hyperbole.

You're trying to say there's bookies lined up at every polling station carrying out their own exit poll so they can profit from it.

I don't think you have the right to ever accuse anyone of hyperbole after making such an idiotic remark.

oppenheimer1

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

But a lot of people aren't putting money on for the craic, they must be confident from hearsay that things are looking favourable for NO at this point.

The guardian produced a poll at midday saying no had a six point lead - and have been running with the general theme that yes has already been defeated (without anything substantial to back up the assertion, and the polls not even closed).

Something like that can lead to people throwing money one way, odds change and people notice and more money follows in circle that gathers its own momentum.

The guardian, which is really the only British paper that I have much time for has been in full propaganda mode today.

pedro1234

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

The guardian produced a poll at midday saying no had a six point lead - and have been running with the general theme that yes has already been defeated (without anything substantial to back up the assertion, and the polls not even closed).

Something like that can lead to people throwing money one way, odds change and people notice and more money follows in circle that gathers its own momentum.

The guardian, which is really the only British paper that I have much time for has been in full propaganda mode today.

They're not supposed to be allowed to comment on it today. It's a bit of a farce.

Banjo String

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

The guardian produced a poll at midday saying no had a six point lead - and have been running with the general theme that yes has already been defeated (without anything substantial to back up the assertion, and the polls not even closed).

Something like that can lead to people throwing money one way, odds change and people notice and more money follows in circle that gathers its own momentum.

The guardian, which is really the only British paper that I have much time for has been in full propaganda mode today.

No media black out, or was this the Irish edition?

My name is URL

Anyone hear the guy on Newstalk with Hook yesterday? Some British professor of politics I think it was. He said that a No vote leading to more devolvemnt for Scotland could mean that NI and Wales demand more power from Westminster (and likely get it), and perhaps even regions within Englerlund demanding that they are given a lot more control of their own affairs. Whatever the result there'll likely be less power placed in the hands of Eton boys in future

Starts at 26 mins - http://www.newstalk.com/player/listen_back/9/12866/17th_September_2014_-_The_Right_Hook_Part_2

oppenheimer1

pedro1234 wrote: »

They're not supposed to be allowed to comment on it today. It's a bit of a farce.

The Guardian has certainly been flirting with the wrong side of the regulations on their website today. The regulations cover broadcasts (which include tweets btw), but the papers seem immune to them.

Lnaa

pedro1234 wrote: »

You're trying to say there's bookies lined up at every polling station carrying out their own exit poll so they can profit from it.

I don't think you have the right to ever accuse anyone of hyperbole after making such an idiotic remark.

No no, that's not what I said. What I actually said was Paddy Power had invested in a monitoring system more intrusive than that used by the Stasi. That they had microphones in every room, pub and public toilet in Scotland and that they have been listening intently to the conversations of EVERY resident of Scotland for at least the last 2000 years :rolleyes:.

tvc15

pedro1234 wrote: »

You're trying to say there's bookies lined up at every polling station carrying out their own exit poll so they can profit from it.

I don't think you have the right to ever accuse anyone of hyperbole after making such an idiotic remark.

You don't need to be at every station for a representative sample size. On the betfair exchange there is €15 million bet so far, the bookies are taking more than that so would be a bit silly to not spend a dew grand on getting an edge on the competition

keith16

Banjo String wrote: »

No media black out, or was this the Irish edition?

From what it appears, I don't think it there is a moratorium. I even saw one picture of a big No poster right outside the polling station.

oppenheimer1

Lnaa wrote: »

No no, that's not what I said. What I actually said was Paddy Power had invested in a monitoring system more intrusive than that used by the Stasi. That they had microphones in every room, pub and public toilet in Scotland and that they have been listening intently to the conversations of EVERY resident of Scotland for at least the last 2000 years :rolleyes:.

Both sides to the campaign will have monitors at every polling station and will be conducting their own exit interviews. in a close run ballot this helps verify the legitimacy of the poll. It could be that PP has information coming from these sources telling how the poll is going but if it was clear the pendulum had swung one way or another the betting would be closed. PP do not give money away and they would know that they are not the only ones who would hold that information.

oppenheimer1

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

The guardian produced a poll at midday saying no had a six point lead - and have been running with the general theme that yes has already been defeated (without anything substantial to back up the assertion, and the polls not even closed).
.

As far as I know, it's illegal to publish such information while the polling stations are open as they could influence the result.

If true, they they are breaking the law!

Dozen Wicked Words

[Deleted User] wrote: »

As far as I know, it's illegal to publish such information while the polling stations are open as they could influence the result.

If true, they they are breaking the law!

As far as I can see, perhaps others also need look again, they reported the poll from the Standard, not a new poll, just the last poll that was done before voting commenced.

Lnaa

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Both sides to the campaign will have monitors at every polling station and will be conducting their own exit interviews. in a close run ballot this helps verify the legitimacy of the poll. It could be that PP has information coming from these sources telling how the poll is going but if it was clear the pendulum had swung one way or another the betting would be closed. PP do not give money away and they would know that they are not the only ones who would hold that information.

Yes, but the point is having a good idea and knowing are too different things. People can say anything to an exit poll which is why they are sometimes wrong. Why would any bookmaker close betting based on a semi-trustworthy exit poll? You can bet their odds are informed though.

I wonder if there is a general lack of understanding of what an exit poll is on the part of some who are posting here.

oppenheimer1

Deleted User wrote: »

As far as I know, it's illegal to publish such information while the polling stations are open as they could influence the result.

If true, they they are breaking the law!

The poll they published was an opinion poll taken yesterday and the day before. Technically allowed, but I think pushes the boundaries of acceptable behaviour from a so called reputable newspaper on polling day.