Scottish Independence discussion area

Lnaa

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

The poll they published was an opinion poll taken yesterday and the day before. Technically allowed, but I think pushes the boundaries of acceptable behaviour from a so called reputable newspaper on polling day.

I wonder if any of this would be being mentioned if the tide was going to the other way.

oppenheimer1

Lnaa wrote: »

Yes, but the point is having a good idea and knowing are too different things. People can say anything to an exit poll which is why they are sometimes wrong. Why would any bookmaker close betting based on a semi-trustworthy exit poll? You can bet their odds are informed though.

I wonder if there is a general lack of understanding of what an exit poll is on the part of some who are posting here.

Exit polls are by far the most reliable polling method and are usually very accurate. If it was clear a nationwide trend was emerging the markets would be closed.

Bookies never lose (apart from Ivan).

Lnaa

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Exit polls are by far the most reliable polling method and are usually very accurate. If it was clear a nationwide trend was emerging the markets would be closed.

Bookies never lose (apart from Ivan).

So they're foolproof then?

namloc1980

Berserker wrote: »

Why do people keep saying this. That is not the case.

- Barroso has stated that they will have to go through the application procedure.
- Spain, for example, will block their application as it will cause them issues wrt Catalonia.

At best, an independent Scotland, would have to wait for membership for a few years, behind the countries who are currently going through the process.

Why would Spain block Scotland? Their issue with Catalonia is completely different. This is a total red herring cooked up by the no camp. Scotland is currently part of the EU. It's people are currently EU citizens, it implements EU law today, it complies with EU regulations. It's preposterous to suggest they couldn't become members. Austria got fast track membership in the early 1990s and they had no history in the EU at the time.

oppenheimer1

Lnaa wrote: »

I wonder if any of this would be being mentioned if the tide was going to the other way.

I think media silence on polling day and the day before is something that is good, no matter what side of the fence you sit on.

I even question whether polling should be allowed 7 days before an election or referendum as people often fall in behind the perceived majority rather than thinking about the issues for themselves.

I don't have any skin in this game so it doesn't matter to me what way it goes.

Berserker

Ould Mr Brennan wrote: »

Half tempted to do this myself. Got a pizza in the freezer too so hmmm???

What type?

namloc1980 wrote: »

Why would Spain block Scotland? Their issue with Catalonia is completely different. This is a total red herring cooked up by the no camp. Scotland is currently part of the EU. It's people are currently EU citizens, it implements EU law today, it complies with EU regulations. It's preposterous to suggest they couldn't become members.

Spain has already blocked the accession of Kosovo as it fears the separation of Catalonia. It will do the same to Scotland.

Barroso has stated that they won't have membership on a number of occasions. They are exiting the UK and thus the EU. Their application will fall under Article 49. There are countless articles backing this up on google but here is one. Link

dubscottie

namloc1980 wrote: »

Why would Spain block Scotland? Their issue with Catalonia is completely different. This is a total red herring cooked up by the no camp. Scotland is currently part of the EU. It's people are currently EU citizens, it implements EU law today, it complies with EU regulations. It's preposterous to suggest they couldn't become members. Austria got fast track membership in the early 1990s and they had no history in the EU at the time.

No sorry. The UK is the EU member. If Scotland leaves the UK it leaves the EU.

Simple.

Its like a wife wanting half her husbands golf club membership when they divorce...

namloc1980

namloc1980 wrote: »

Why would Spain block Scotland? Their issue with Catalonia is completely different. This is a total red herring cooked up by the no camp. Scotland is currently part of the EU. It's people are currently EU citizens, it implements EU law today, it complies with EU regulations. It's preposterous to suggest they couldn't become members. Austria got fast track membership in the early 1990s and they had no history in the EU at the time.

It's a bit like having a husband & wife membership of a club in the husband's name, they get divorced. She then has to apply in her own name as she can't use her (ex)husbands card. Should be straightforward though, barring Spanish attempts to block.

edit: snap dubscottie.

Dozen Wicked Words

Berserker wrote: »

What type?

Think he has a beko

Lnaa

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

I think media silence on polling day and the day before is something that is good, no matter what side of the fence you sit on.

I even question whether polling should be allowed 7 days before an election or referendum as people often fall in behind the perceived majority rather than thinking about the issues for themselves.

I don't have any skin in this game so it doesn't matter to me what way it goes.

People who blindly follow the majority will always follow a "majority" of sorts, be that an opinion poll, a headline or their peer group.

kingchess

maybe Iceland would be a example of dealing with the EU and that the

Lnaa

Incidentally, I understand that Salmond wants to be part of the EU, but who is to say Scotland would definitely be better off by being in the EU?

The Diabolical Monocle

Och ...ahhh cannae teek it noo mooore

dubscottie

Lnaa wrote: »

Incidentally, I understand that Salmond wants to be part of the EU, but who is to say Scotland would definitely be better off by being in the EU?

Well Salmond keeps banging on about how great Norway is.. And they are not in the EU.

Hulk Hands

First Up wrote: »

You can be sure that the bookies have had people at the polls since morning and are using the data. That's why "No" odds have shortened so much today.

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

Agreed the bookies aren't stupid. Its just a matter of how much NO wins by.

I fear they're going to get close to 60%, in some comfortable landslide. The whole thing will be like a wet fart if that happens.

Ah jesus lads. Bookies with people outside polling stations? This is basically a novelty bet. The bookies are turning over far more money on the celtic match on at the moment than they are on this stuff. There'll be one person in the office keeping half an eye on the betfair market (the only market that counts in this case) while they do other jobs. If the betfair price drops, so will the price in the bookies. Really there's nothing more to it than that

Lnaa

dubscottie wrote: »

Well Salmond keeps banging on about how great Norway is.. And they are not in the EU.

Salmond uses whichever model suits him at the time... up until 2007 he used Ireland as the example for what an independent Scotland could become.

However, the fact that both Norway and Switzerland, also smaller nations, are not part of the EU but do quite nicely thank-you may suggest the EU is not the way to go.

dubscottie

dubscottie wrote: »

Well Salmond keeps banging on about how great Norway is.. And they are not in the EU.

Perhaps he should look closer at how they retained their wealth, before going into the EU.

(assuming it's an Aye of course)

Frank Bullitt

namloc1980

dubscottie wrote: »

No sorry. The UK is the EU member. If Scotland leaves the UK it leaves the EU.

Simple.

Its like a wife wanting half her husbands golf club membership when they divorce...

No it's not that simple. The scenario is not covered in the Treaties. In 1982 Greenland left the EC at the time even though there was no mechanism to do so and it wasn't provided for in the Treaties but guess what it was negotiated. This too will be negotiated. To suggest otherwise is absurd.

Lnaa

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Ah jesus lads. Bookies with people outside polling stations? This is basically a novelty bet. The bookies are turning over far more money on the celtic match on at the moment than they are on this stuff. There'll be one person in the office keeping half an eye on the betfair market (the only market that counts in this case) while they do other jobs. If the betfair price drops, so will the price in the bookies. Really there's nothing more to it than that

As you want, but bookies don't take half measures. Its why they are nearly always right. Much more often than the media.

namloc1980

namloc1980 wrote: »

No it's not that simple. The scenario is not covered in the Treaties. In 1982 Greenland left the EC at the time even though there was no mechanism to do so and it wasn't provided for in the Treaties but guess what it was negotiated. This too will be negotiated. To suggest otherwise is absurd.

Greenland voted to leave the EU but did not vote for independence from Denmark.
Scotland is only voting to leave the UK, not the EU.
It's up to the EU to allow automatic membership to Scotland or make them reapply.

dubscottie

namloc1980 wrote: »

No it's not that simple. The scenario is not covered in the Treaties. In 1982 Greenland left the EC at the time even though there was no mechanism to do so and it wasn't provided for in the Treaties but guess what it was negotiated. This too will be negotiated. To suggest otherwise is absurd.

The EC in 1982 is a whole lot different to the EU in 2014 (or even 2016).

The fact is that in the unlikely event of a yes vote, Scotland will be outside the EU for a number of years. This magic membership won't happen. They will need to reapply and that takes years.

The only short term thing they could do is try to get the same status as Gibraltar has with the EU regards to trade/travel etc.

Peppa Pig

dubscottie wrote: »

The fact is that in the unlikely event of a yes vote, Scotland will be outside the EU for a number of years. This magic membership won't happen. They will need to reapply and that takes years..

Can you back that up - or is it your opinion?

Berserker

Peppa Pig wrote: »

Can you back that up - or is it your opinion?

I posted an article above to back up what he is saying. There are a number of articles online stating so.

Donkey Oaty

dubscottie wrote: »

They will need to reapply and that takes years.

Technically, wouldn't they also have to apply to leave, which could take years as well?

Guy:Incognito

The other countries can , and should, kick up a fuss if Scotland are fast tracked. They are a brand new, un tested country. What happens if they are a basket case and need billions poured in to it to keep it afloat? There'd be uproar that they weren't made meet the conditions others are.

Spring Onion

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

Its been like that since this morning. I put £100 on at 1/5 around 11am.

Easy money, well done. I did the same a few days ago with better odds.

It reminds me of the Michael D betting. He slipped out to 5/2 just before the election debate because the FF bagman was doing really well in the polls
but then it dawned on people that Michael D was the safest bet. I had 300 on the Michael D win.

dubscottie

Peppa Pig wrote: »

Can you back that up - or is it your opinion?

You really think the EU is going to allow a new country, with no track record join right away? (and Scotland will be a new country)

Thats why Turkey still hasn't joined.. They can't prove that they can do things the "EU way"

Its like giving an 18 year old the keys to a bus with all the other EU members onboard. They wont do it till they know they are capable of driving that bus.

Berserker

Donkey Oaty wrote: »

Technically, wouldn't they also have to apply to leave, which could take years as well?

No because by leaving the UK, they are leaving the EU. The UK is a member.

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

The other countries can , and should, kick up a fuss if Scotland are fast tracked. They are a brand new, un tested country. What happens if they are a basket case and need billions poured in to it to keep it afloat? There'd be uproar that they weren't made meet the conditions others are.

Well, if it is fast tracked, the countries who are going through the official membership process will kick up a fuss. Why should Scotland get special treatment ahead of them? Also, as stated before Spain will block that, in the same manner that they blocked Kosovo's application. This isn't untested. Kosovo declared independence in 2008 and applied for EU membership. Finally, if an independent Scotland went bust, the IMF would be the place to go, as we know only too well. They would have to sell off their oil and gas first though.

dubscottie

Donkey Oaty wrote: »

Technically, wouldn't they also have to apply to leave, which could take years as well?

No. Because the UK is not leaving the EU (yet). The UK is the member as posted already..

Donkey Oaty

No because by leaving the UK, they are leaving the EU

You say that as a fact. My understanding is that there has been no legal opinion offered by the EU on this - unless you know differently? I'm not talking about foreign ministers spouting local politics, I'm talking about an agreed policy by the European Commission.

Lnaa

dubscottie wrote: »

No. Because the UK is not leaving the EU (yet). The UK is the member as posted already..

I think the point is, Scotland will still be part of the EU tomorrow morning and well into the future just as it will be part of the UK because a yes vote isn't going to happen. The rest is just blowing hot air.

Berserker

Berserker wrote: »

if an independent Scotland went bust, the IMF would be the place to go, as we know only too well

No they could rejoin the UK, after all that's how they become part of the UK in the first place.

Peppa Pig

dubscottie wrote: »

You really think the EU is going to allow a new country, with no track record join right away? (and Scotland will be a new country)

Haven't a clue - you seem certain though, all I'm asking is for evidence of proof or opinion.

Like this ....

dubscottie wrote:

Point me to the legal stance that says Scotland will get automatic EU membership if it goes on its own..

The Yes says it will be no problem.. Still to see the proof though!

Post 1181

That's at least twice you have been asked to back up your claim - and you cannot.

As for links showing it to be true
here is one disagreeing with you

dubscottie

Donkey Oaty wrote: »

You say that as a fact. My understanding is that there has been no legal opinion offered by the EU on this - unless you know differently? I'm not talking about foreign ministers spouting local politics, I'm talking about an agreed policy by the European Commission.

Well why is there talk of Scotland having to reapply if they are not going to leave the EU??

I forgot though that Alex Salmond had a vision and everything will be just dandy...

oppenheimer1

dubscottie wrote: »

The EC in 1982 is a whole lot different to the EU in 2014 (or even 2016).

The fact is that in the unlikely event of a yes vote, Scotland will be outside the EU for a number of years. This magic membership won't happen. They will need to reapply and that takes years.

The only short term thing they could do is try to get the same status as Gibraltar has with the EU regards to trade/travel etc.

What would happen is that they would negotiate their entry during the transition period. The EU can be pragmatic when it needs to be and wouldn't want Scotland out. It has too much oil and fish.

Yogosan

Logic dictates that since Scotland is currently already EU compliant, then they should be allowed a smooth quick transition back into the EU if they want it.

If Gordon D'Arcy left Leinster, you wouldn't say he is a "Brand new, and untested player.

Edit- If the EU refused Scotland joining, then they are effectively saying they don't support democratic decisions. Dress it up any way you like, but that is how I personally would interpret a refusal of Scotland joining the EU. If anything, a yes vote should further bolster Scotlands credentials as a fair democratic society. Certainly more so than Spain for example.

My name is URL

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

The other countries can , and should, kick up a fuss if Scotland are fast tracked. They are a brand new, un tested country. What happens if they are a basket case and need billions poured in to it to keep it afloat? There'd be uproar that they weren't made meet the conditions others are.

It's hardly 'untested'. The European Commission already have offices in Scotland.

If you can claim that should it leave the UK, and be subject to the regular process before being admitted to the EU, then why aren't people arguing that should Scotland leave the UK, that the UK should also need to reapply; since it is no longer the entity that joined the EU in the first place?

dubscottie

Peppa Pig wrote: »

Haven't a clue - you seem certain though, all
As for links showing it to be true
here is one disagreeing with you

Sorry a link to a pro independence website is not "proof"

Lnaa

Deleted User wrote: »

No they could rejoin the UK, after all that's how they become part of the UK in the first place.

Doubtful. If by some miraculous twist of fate Scotland votes yes its hard to envision the rest of the UK allowing a bankrupt Scotland back into the union.

pedro1234

@dscullylimerick:
2014-09-18 17:47:19 UTC
IPSOS MORI confirm that their opinion polls are no longer valid if turnout in Scotland hits 80% I suspect these extra voters will go for Yes

namloc1980

Berserker wrote: »

No because by leaving the UK, they are leaving the EU. The UK is a member.



Well, if it is fast tracked, the countries who are going through the official membership process will kick up a fuss. Why should Scotland get special treatment ahead of them? Also, as stated before Spain will block that, in the same manner that they blocked Kosovo's application. This isn't untested. Kosovo declared independence in 2008 and applied for EU membership. Finally, if an independent Scotland went bust, the IMF would be the place to go, as we know only too well. They would have to sell off their oil and gas first though.

Kosovo is a completely different scenario. Kosovo declared independence unilaterally and without the consent of Serbia and also without a referendum of the people! Scotland and the UK have signed a consensual agreement that constitutionally underpins this referendum and the result of the referendum. To draw parallels between the two scenarios is ridiculous.

Lnaa

The most important issue, and one that no-one is discussing, is what will become of Billy Connolly's World Tour of England, Wales and Ireland.

Will it be renamed Billy's World Tour of the UK and Ireland?

Scintillating stuff.

Guy:Incognito

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No they could rejoin the UK, after all that's how they become part of the UK in the first place.

Yeah, I'd imagine the UK would welcome them back with open arms so they can hang around till they're solvent then vote to leave again.

Fratton Fred

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Yeah, I'd imagine the UK would welcome them back with open arms so they can hang around till they're solvent then vote to leave again.

A 307 years cycle.

Guy:Incognito

My name is URL wrote: »

It's hardly 'untested'. The European Commission already have offices in Scotland.

Of course it's untested. When before have they stood alone as an economic entity for comparison?

dubscottie

Was talking to family in Scotland there.. 1000's of postal ballots were not sent out (or are missing!!) and people affected have now to collect them from the local council HQ. (which in my aunties case is 25 miles away).

Might be a delay in announcing results till all postal votes are in.

moxin

Lnaa wrote: »

Doubtful. If by some miraculous twist of fate Scotland votes yes its hard to envision the rest of the UK allowing a bankrupt Scotland back into the union.

Fascinating scaremongering right there. Is that you Mr Cameron?

Guy:Incognito

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

What would happen is that they would negotiate their entry during the transition period. The EU can be pragmatic when it needs to be and wouldn't want Scotland out. It has too much oil and fish.

And there won't be any issues bumping them to the top of the queue?

Lnaa

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Of course it's untested. When before have they stood alone as an economic entity for comparison?

1706.