Scottish Independence discussion area

dubscottie

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Why?

Andy Murray is **** again. The useless jock.

Just to clear up the Andy Murray thing..

At his first press conference after taking the No 1 spot from Tim Hennman,

he was asked the following..

Journalist: "So Andy, How does it feel to be English No1"

AM: I have no idea as I am not English. Being British and Scottish No 1 feels great though"

namloc1980

m1ck007 wrote: »

Get your money on yes NOW , utv coverage just stated no camp are very worried with large swarms of yes voters on the streets of edinburgh and aberdeen!

Nah. No side seem fairly confident at this stage. Yes side keeping the heads down.

Donkey Oaty

m1ck007 wrote: »

Get your money on yes NOW , utv coverage just stated no camp are very worried with large swarms of yes voters on the streets of edinburgh and aberdeen!

Are they worried about the result or about their cars, property, etc?

cruiserweight

YouGov predicts 54% No and 46% Yes https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/512715587387027456

BringBackMick

Nah would have to be a serious turn around for Yes to win this.

NO has gone into 1.09. Could be an early night

Hulk Hands

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

Bet fair don't know nuttin

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

Bet fair is muppets betting against other muppets. They probably don't have any info.

What market is a better way to judge than betfair? There's been over 17 million traded on the market. There a plenty of idiots but theyre not the ones lining up 50k to back at 1.12

SharpshooterTom

Da Shins Kelly wrote: »

Not really convinced it's going to be as close as we're bring led to believe. I think a lot of fence sitters will have voted no, and I would imagine that there are a few quiet no voters who haven't been going around shouting about it, but will have come out of the woodwork and cast their vote today.

Either way though, even if the yes side doesn't come through tonight, this is surely the sign of a sea change in the UK. It can only be a matter of time before Scotland breaks away, and then who knows what'll happen with Wales, and Cornwall are talking about independence too.

Scotland will never break away. Nor will Northern Ireland or Wales, the UK is essentially undefeatable. Most people in these countries are happy to consider themselves British. I guarantee you the UK will still exist towards the end of this century.

Frank Lee Midere

Nobody knows. With an 80-90% vote people are voting who never voted before. Not even for the SNP.

Nobody can therefore look at a return and judge it or compare it to the ejections or anything else because totally different people are voting. Nor will the early rural constituencies tell you anything about how Glasgow will vote.

The question is - who are these extra voters and did the polls pick them up? Are they the type to answer telephone polls or go online? We won't even know after the first few results.

Jakey Rolling

razorblunt wrote: »

It's originally a German song though.

Yes, written by a German, specifically for the bagpipes.

Frank Lee Midere

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

Scotland will never break away. Nor will Northern Ireland or Wales, the UK is essentially undefeatable. Most people in these countries are happy to consider themselves British. I guarantee you the UK will still exist towards the end of this century.

Except you know if the polls are correct then 48% of Scots want to break away right now. You'll probably keep wales though.

BringBackMick

I am an optimist but NO has sunk to 1.06 and that YouGov poll compounds the fact it has been a No vote.

Lnaa

Da Shins Kelly wrote: »

Not really convinced it's going to be as close as we're bring led to believe. I think a lot of fence sitters will have voted no, and I would imagine that there are a few quiet no voters who haven't been going around shouting about it, but will have come out of the woodwork and cast their vote today.

Either way though, even if the yes side doesn't come through tonight, this is surely the sign of a sea change in the UK. It can only be a matter of time before Scotland breaks away, and then who knows what'll happen with Wales, and Cornwall are talking about independence too.

Wales generally has very little desire for independence and is also far more convoluted than Scotland. You have "language politics" to contend with their for a start. Then I can't seriously see how Cornwall would begin to run an economy successful enough to support itself. Devolution maybe. Independence no.

Fratton Fred

dubscottie wrote: »

Just to clear up the Andy Murray thing..

At his first press conference after taking the No 1 spot from Tim Hennman,

he was asked the following..

Journalist: "So Andy, How does it feel to be English No1"

AM: I have no idea as I am not English. Being British and Scottish No 1 feels great though"

Stupid journalist. No Scotsman has ever been good enough to be England's number one.

Jim Leighton ffs.......

Dr. Bre

ah well , how long till we have to wait for the next referendum!

pedro1234

One of the planes due to fly in some of the ballot papers could be delayed due to fog. It's bringing papers from the western isles. -- BBC.

BringBackMick

Presumably with the margin of error the best the Yes can reasonable hope for is a 50.50.

Sunnyisland

pedro1234 wrote: »

One of the planes due to fly in some of the ballot papers could be delayed due to fog. It's bringing papers from the western isles. -- BBC.

Noooo

Frank Lee Midere

Hulk Hands wrote: »

What market is a better way to judge than betfair? There's been over 17 million traded on the market. There a plenty of idiots but theyre not the ones lining up 50k to back at 1.12

They still don't know anything. Neither does yougov. All of these polls are useless. I was expecting an exit poll.

Da Shins Kelly

Lnaa wrote: »

Wales generally has very little desire for independence and is also far more convoluted than Scotland. You have "language politics" to contend with their for a start. Then I can't seriously see how Cornwall would begin to run an economy successful enough to support itself. Devolution maybe. Independence no.

Not saying it would happen today or tomorrow, I don't even think Scotland will be independent today or tomorrow, but if they did become independent in the future, it could spark something in other regions that consider themselves different.

Red Nissan

The more I think about it, 100% turn out is impossible.

80 to 90% is impressive.

Go on Scotland.

Egginacup

Da Shins Kelly wrote: »

Not really convinced it's going to be as close as we're bring led to believe. I think a lot of fence sitters will have voted no, and I would imagine that there are a few quiet no voters who haven't been going around shouting about it, but will have come out of the woodwork and cast their vote today.

Either way though, even if the yes side doesn't come through tonight, this is surely the sign of a sea change in the UK. It can only be a matter of time before Scotland breaks away, and then who knows what'll happen with Wales, and Cornwall are talking about independence too.

Excellent point. Alex Salmond has already won even if the vote is no.
Westminster maggots threatening and their masters in the banks making further threats.

And these are the people who yap about democracy and the rule of law yet deliver threats to a nation of 5 million when the ball looks like it might not bounce their way.

BringBackMick

big shot at YouGov, '99% sure No vote has won'

SharpshooterTom

Dr. Bre wrote: »

ah well , how long till we have to wait for the next referendum!

Not for a lifetime. I'm a YES supporter but I would side with England on this one. They voted NO here and they should stick to it, the tory backbenchers should dig their heels in and tell Scotland to F off over more powers, devo max or whatever. That wasn't on the ballot. Simply IN or OUT. Nothing else.

I hate the way Scotland keeps holding the rest of the UK to ransom, they made their decision and that's final. No more freebies. I wanted Scotland to go independent but I would side with the English over this never ending farce.

fryup

BringBackMick wrote: »

Presumably with the margin of error the best the Yes can reasonable hope for is a 50.50.

and then what................???

toss a coin?? fastest to skull a pint?? fastest to eat a battered mars bar ??

Donkey Oaty

If it turns out to be a YES vote, YouGov will be finished after their man has appeared on Newsnight saying 46/54 No - no hedging, no disclaimers, no margin of error, etc.

Lnaa

Clever choice by the BBC to have a Welshman chair the coverage of this issue.

BringBackMick

Donkey Oaty wrote: »

If it turns out to be a YES vote, YouGov will be finished after their man has appeared on Newsnight saying 46/54 No - no hedging, no disclaimers, no margin of error, etc.

Yep, said 99% sure of NO!

pedro1234

YouGov guy on Sky said the poll they did was simply people voting online after they voted at the polls. That's not scientific and can't be trusted.

cruiserweight

Lnaa wrote: »

Clever choice by the BBC to have a Welshman chair the coverage of this issue.

I was confused for a minute and then realised that BBC Scotland is having different coverage to rest of the UK

Frank Lee Midere

I am going to sleep. Word of warning. Don't trust the polls. I was hoping for an exit poll.

The polls are telephone and/or Internet polls. It's probably more scientific than twitter ( a resounding yes vote) but maybe not much more. The problem is these polls are designed for the normal voter. Middle income. Educated. Interested.

There are people voting today who never voted before. The pollsters wouldn't know if their methodology is correct until votes are counted. How these extra voters vote or whether they were picked up by the pollsters is open.

Which is why I wanted a exit poll.

Hulk Hands

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

They still don't know anything. Neither does yougov. All of these polls are useless. I was expecting an exit poll.

Why don't you lay the 1/14 on NO then if noone has a clue. Surely theres a decent chance yes can win if its all still unknown?

Guy:Incognito

pedro1234 wrote: »

YouGov guy on Sky said the poll they did was simply people voting online after they voted at the polls. That's not scientific and can't be trusted.

There was an online poll and the Irish didn't hijack it? Liam Neeson could have been the king of Scotlonia. FFS people, what happened?

Lenin Skynard

The sun will need to shine on Scotland for the next few years if it stays within the UK. All their ills will be blamed on the no vote and they'll want another referendum if things go badly.

A four/six point difference (as the latest polls suggest) isn't very decisive at all. It could flop the other way with more war/recession/health cuts.

Whatever happens tonight, while it feels like the end of something, will really only be the beginning.

sink

pedro1234 wrote: »

YouGov guy on Sky said the poll they did was simply people voting online after they voted at the polls. That's not scientific and can't be trusted.

Well he also said that they were people who had been telephone polled previously and had been pre arranged to report their actual vote on the day. It not bullet proof but it is highly indicative.

BringBackMick

Yea think the YouGov calling 99% certainty was a little foolish.

The poll was based on questionable surveying.

Frank Lee Midere

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Why don't you lay the 1/14 on NO then if noone has a clue. Surely theres a decent chance yes can win if its all still unknown?

I dinnae bet. That said not a bad idea. Twitter is always advertising bet fair and their free cash on diving in. Free to bet so why not ?

FloatingVoter

Has anybody started the Westminster Rigged The Vote conspiracy theory yet ?

tvc15

Betfair exchange has collapsed for the yes vote. 5 to 1 right up until 10pm all the way out to 15 to 1 now, as far as the money is concerned the yes vote is dead and buried

Zonda999

Does anyone buy into the simple fact that the Pound was UP versus other currencies today that it has been a No vote? I just can't see the markets being wrong on this.

keeponhurling

Lenin Skynard wrote: »

The sun will need to shine on Scotland for the next few years if it stays within the UK. All their ills will be blamed on the no vote and they'll want another referendum if things go badly.

true， next time SNP or Scotland in general is pissed off with the ruling parties in England, there may be more bitterness

Frank Lee Midere

sink wrote: »

Well he also said that they were people who had been telephone polled previously and had been pre arranged to report their actual vote on the day. It not bullet proof but it is highly indicative.

Telephone polls can't be accurate either. People don't always answer. Now in a 50% turnout those guys probably wouldn't vote. In an 80-90% turnout they might.

LorMal

Lnaa wrote: »

I like a lot of what you say, but that's daft talk. Scotland won't descend into a Troubles-esque situation. The factors that led to the Troubles in the north of Ireland simply aren't present in Scotland.

Like gross stupidity

Lnaa

Da Shins Kelly wrote: »

Not saying it would happen today or tomorrow, I don't even think Scotland will be independent today or tomorrow, but if they did become independent in the future, it could spark something in other regions that consider themselves different.

Think it runs deeper than that. The Irish as a people tend to see England as a whole, united, entity. Most Irish refer to Scotland, England and Wales as England. England is not the happy united unit a lot think it is (in fact neither is Wales, with the north, especially the north-east starting to feel particularly aggrieved by how Cardiff runs things) I think there are angry voices emerging in certain areas towards how everything is centralised towards London and the south-east. I think Scotland will vote no, but I think either way, London is going to struggle to keep control of England in its current centralised form. I would be surprised if Manchester doesn't have some form of devolved federal-style self-governance within five to ten years. Once Manchester has it, other parts of England will want it too. Either way I think a different style of government is on its way in the UK, with a move away from centralisation and a move towards a federal-style system. I am just holding out hope for a yes vote in Scotland because I think it would hasten the advent of such a system.

namloc1980

Looks done but stranger things have happened. In 2000 the US media declared Al Gore the winner of the presidential election before all votes were counted.

Lenin Skynard

tvc15 wrote: »

Betfair exchange has collapsed for the yes vote. 5 to 1 right up until 10pm all the way out to 15 to 1 now, as far as the money is concerned the yes vote is dead and buried

Might throw a fiver on that

Donkey Oaty

tvc15 wrote: »

Betfair exchange has collapsed for the yes vote. 5 to 1 right up until 10pm all the way out to 15 to 1 now, as far as the money is concerned the yes vote is dead and buried

Not quite dead - but the priest has been called, that's for sure.

Frank Lee Midere

tvc15 wrote: »

Betfair exchange has collapsed for the yes vote. 5 to 1 right up until 10pm all the way out to 15 to 1 now, as far as the money is concerned the yes vote is dead and buried

They must have been listening to yougov huh?

gladrags

BBC Live

First count just after 12 Midnight

BringBackMick

Donkey Oaty wrote: »

Not quite dead - but the priest has been called, that's for sure.

I have seen 1.01 shots smashed.

Things have settled a little since the YouGov poll.

NO at 1.10.

It's still alive but barely.

NIMAN

Any poll/hunch/guess has a 50% chance of being right.