Scottish Independence discussion area

FloatingVoter

namloc1980 wrote: »

Looks done but stranger things have happened. In 2000 the US media declared Al Gore the winner of the presidential election before all votes were counted.

Ahhh.....fond memories.....them 'ol hanging chads blues. Gore did win it - the Supreme Court decided to gave it to the monkey.

Guy:Incognito

NIMAN wrote: »

Any poll/hunch/guess has a 50% chance of being right.

50.01 will do.

BOHtox

What time might we be expecting a result? Are they counting throughout the night?

EDIT: shortly after midnight we should see some early counts

fryup

namloc1980 wrote: »

Looks done but stranger things have happened. In 2000 the US media declared Al Gore the winner of the presidential election before all votes were counted.

yery true

and the british labour party in 1992 thought they had it in the bag

FloatingVoter

BOHtox wrote: »

What time might we be expecting a result? Are they counting throughout the night?

Yes. 6 AM was the time I heard. Result is pretty clear now though.

Donkey Oaty

Sudden trickle of money on Betfair back towards Yes - might be profit takers or people coming back from pub who don't know what they are doing.

Anyway, it's not quite over as far as they are concerned.

oppenheimer1

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

Bet fair don't know nuttin

Yougov conducted online poll says its a no, with the president of the organisation saying its a 99% certainty.

Kermit.de.frog

People are saying it's done when not a single ballot has been counted.

They must think are Mystic Megs or something.

FloatingVoter

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

People are saying it's done when not a single ballot has been counted.

They must think are Mystic Megs or something.

They've been counting for the last hour. There might be a ban on exit polls. You can be damned sure there were unofficial ones done.

Red Nissan

turnikett1 wrote: »

I am 100% for Scottish independence... Shame it probably won't happen though.

It has happened, the actual result is totally unimportant, Scotland has been set on her course and she will be the better for it.

Either way!

Donkey Oaty

BringBackMick wrote: »

I have seen 1.01 shots smashed.

Things have settled a little since the YouGov poll.

NO at 1.10.

It's still alive but barely.

1.10? Not on Betfair, surely?

FloatingVoter

FloatingVoter wrote: »

Yes. 6 AM was the time I heard. Result is pretty clear now though.

Not until the first declaration, no results in yet just speculation.

SharpshooterTom

No more referendums for Scotland. That's it. Finito. Please god no more.

Devo max wasn't on the ballot, nor were extra powers, if the tories are elected for another 10 years, so be it. If they vote to leave the EU, so be it. You choose to be part of the country and you take the consequences that come with it. They choose to be British, and that's what they will be.

BringBackMick

Donkey Oaty wrote: »

Sudden trickle of money on Betfair back towards Yes - might be profit takers or people coming back from pub who don't know what they are doing.

Anyway, it's not quite over as far as they are concerned.

Probably profit takers. This is a close vote, probably won't go 1.01 until the morning.

gladrags

BBC Live

We never had ref like this before...outcome uncertain

COYVB

BringBackMick wrote: »

Yea think the YouGov calling 99% certainty was a little foolish.

The poll was based on questionable surveying.

They asked 1,828 people who voted physically and 800 who voted by post...

Not sure how they reckon those figures are within 1% of representing the entire Scottish nation

namloc1980

fryup wrote: »

yery true

and the british labour party in 1992 thought they had it in the bag

And in 2011 the RTE exit poll in the general election was way out in some areas and that was an exit poll.

dubscottie

Deleted User wrote: »

Not until the first declaration, no results in yet just speculation.

And due to the cock up with postal votes (in Fife anyway) First results may be later..

mrsbyrne

If The Sun says it's No then thats it for me. And I'm not being sarky or ironic either. They're never wrong on these occasions.

fryup

Red Nissan wrote: »

It has happened, the actual result is totally unimportant, Scotland has been set on her course and she will be the better for it.

set on her course? there won't be another referendum this century i reckon

even salmond said its now or never

NIMAN

fryup wrote: »

set on her course? there won't be another referendum this century i reckon

even salmond said its now or never

Any idea how they would go about having a 2nd referendum should this be a NO?

How long would it take?

If it is a 'NO' and the devolution promises aren't forthcoming and the people want another, can it happen in the next few years?

efb

NIMAN wrote: »

Any idea how they would go about having a 2nd referendum should this be a NO?

How long would it take?

If it is a 'NO' and the devolution promises aren't forthcoming and the people want another, can it happen in the next few years?

20 years at least

kefir32

so it looks like a no- unofficially

NIMAN

efb wrote: »

20 years at least

Is there an official rule in place or what?

FloatingVoter

NIMAN wrote: »

Any idea how they would go about having a 2nd referendum should this be a NO?

How long would it take?

If it is a 'NO' and the devolution promises aren't forthcoming and the people want another, can it happen in the next few years?

It looks like the majority of people have voted to stay in. They'll probably have a say in the matter. So whenever the oil runs out, they'll probably get a P45 and a free set of bagpipes.

dubscottie

NIMAN wrote: »

Any idea how they would go about having a 2nd referendum should this be a NO?

How long would it take?

If it is a 'NO' and the devolution promises aren't forthcoming and the people want another, can it happen in the next few years?

20-30 years.. If it goes No then I think the SNP will be in the wilderness for a few years.

namloc1980

Must say all these Scottish count centres are fecking huge places!!

Donkey Oaty

Just to bear in mind on the Betfair exchange, the serious money has now gone. We're back down to 9/1, (from 14/1 a few minutes ago), but it's small sums.

Red Nissan

fryup wrote: »

set on her course? there won't be another referendum this century i reckon

even salmond said its now or never

I see an independent Scotland arising anyway, you can't put that Genie back in the bottle.

80 to 90% vote? IF, if, if if, true, that's a game changer right there.

FloatingVoter

They are now interviewing "Social Media Experts" on Sky News. I'm going to start getting drunk now.

jacksie66

This post has been deleted.

dubscottie

FloatingVoter wrote: »

They are now interviewing "Social Media Experts" on Sky News. I'm going to start getting drunk now.

Well ahead of you mate.. Hic! Going to be a long night!

gladrags

BBC Live...

The Queen is staying up to follow events closely.

Frank Lee Midere

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Not until the first declaration, no results in yet just speculation.

It won't be clear after the first declaration either. Nate Silver on twitter points out you can't even trust exit polls. As for Internet polls.

Iwasfrozen

I know it's early days but I'm glad to see Scotland seems to be staying in the Union.

Now is the time to make changes to build a better and stronger Union.

fryup

gladrags wrote: »

BBC Live...

The Queen is staying up to follow events closely.

i wonder did she put down a bet herself

BringBackMick

I hope so much that this is a Yes vote now, it will make it all that much sweeter.

Red Nissan

gladrags wrote: »

BBC Live

We never had ref like this before...outcome uncertain

Ye, strange, it's usually 'too close to call' !!!

kefir32

better the devil you know it seems

SharpshooterTom

Red Nissan wrote: »

I see an independent Scotland arising anyway, you can't put that Genie back in the bottle.

80 to 90% vote? IF, if, if if, true, that's a game changer right there.

Scotland will never go independent. A lot of Irish people have a really daft romantic view of Scotland and its time it ends. Scotland is more pro English than it is pro Irish that's for sure, and it should be as they're part of the same country and fight and die in the same army together.

Hopefully if anything this changes Ireland's rather naïve view of Scotland as fellow oppressed celts etc.

Hulk Hands

Donkey Oaty wrote: »

Just to bear in mind on the Betfair exchange, the serious money has now gone. We're back down to 9/1, (from 14/1 a few minutes ago), but it's small sums.

Nah it hasn't, its turned over a million in the last hour. You're not looking at he bottom selection. There's 100k there to back No at 1.08 (same as someone putting up nearly 10k to back yes at 12/1)

Donkey Oaty

gladrags wrote: »

BBC Live...

The Queen is staying up to follow events closely.

Did it say which events? It might be the Dave Lee Travis trial, where the jury is still out.

dubscottie

The worst thing is that the first results will be from the central belt. Ie Glasgow, Edinburgh etc.

Shetland will be 90% NO, but the other Highland votes will take longer to come in so take the early results with a pinch of salt.

Harry Palmr

I wonder if the movement to re-integrate Ireland into the UK will gather pace

bobmalooka

A close vote will likely lead to another referendum within 10 years if the SNP are still in power, Salmonds likely successor has confirmed as much.

Perhaps quicker if they can capitalise on any potential watering down of Devomax which the big 3 will be under huge pressure to do.

Either way the fallout from this campaign will send huge shock waves through London.

Da Shins Kelly

dubscottie wrote: »

20-30 years.. If it goes No then I think the SNP will be in the wilderness for a few years.

Really that long? Didn't Quebec have two votes in the space of 15 years? And I imagine there'll be another on the cards for them at some point in the future. Not that Quebec is the blueprint or anything.

Interestingly, when I was in Spain last year, the Catalan independence movement were citing the Scottish bid as an example for themselves and what they want. They were hoping that an independent Scotland would be a boost for their own campaign. I imagine they'll have their eye on what's happening tonight.

feargale

COYVB wrote: »

They asked 1,828 people who voted physically and 800 who voted by post...

Not sure how they reckon those figures are within 1% of representing the entire Scottish nation

That presupposes that about 30% of the electorate are postal voters. Surely not! Also, there is a No bias in postal votes.

Goolay

FloatingVoter wrote: »

They are now interviewing "Social Media Experts" on Sky News. I'm going to start getting drunk now.

Yep, I'm watching on BBC Scotland and I switched over to Sky for a sec and they were arguing over what Kirsty Alsop had to say. Off.

Donkey Oaty

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Nah it hasn't, its turned over a million in the last hour. You're not looking at he bottom selection. There's 100k there to back No at 1.08 (same as someone putting up nearly 10k to back yes at 12/1)

No, I was looking at both selections - and it was gone at that point, and it seems to have been a blip. But yes, it is back on now - and a huge amount has been added in all directions.

Spring Onion

What will people talk about on Saturday?