Scottish Independence discussion area

Lenin Skynard

Harry Palmr wrote: »

I wonder if the movement to re-integrate Ireland into the UK will gather pace

Does such a movement even exist?

BringBackMick

What recent trades on the exchange has shown me, the fluctuation on the betting markets was purely based on the YouGov Poll, and not anything to do with real votes, or tallying.

Happyman42

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

I know it's early days but I'm glad to see Scotland seems to be staying in the Union.

Now is the time to make changes to build a better and stronger Union.

The 'Union' is sundered. You are watching the break-up live, whatever the result.

SharpshooterTom

Harry Palmr wrote: »

I wonder if the movement to re-integrate Ireland into the UK will gather pace

Given the British (especially British loyalists) hate the Irish, no chance.

fryup

let me correct that for you..

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

Hopefully if anything this changes Ireland's shinners rather naïve view of Scotland as fellow oppressed celts etc.

Harry Palmr

Lenin Skynard wrote: »

Does such a movement even exist?

Sure isn't Ireland full of "Wesht Brits"? That's what I keep hearing.

renegademaster

Spring Onion wrote: »

What will people talk about on Saturday?

yo do realise they'll be incomprehensible til at least the end of next week when the yes vote goes through :pac:

feargale

Spring Onion wrote: »

What will people talk about on Saturday?

Donegal v. Kerry.

FloatingVoter

Flicked onto BBC. "How is the vote going ?" Simple question ?

I've had a brief history of the Clyde, a potted biography of Ramsey MacDonald and a synopsis of Macbeth. No answer to the ****ing question. Where's Paxman when you need him ?

SharpshooterTom

Happyman42 wrote: »

The 'Union' is sundered. You are watching the break-up live, whatever the result.

The union is safe, although demographics are changing favourably in Northern Ireland, there's too many Rory McIlroy's about the place and the biggest problem facing nationalism in NI is the softening catholic vote. If they could get 95% of catholics to vote for UI, perhaps, but they can't. They can't even get any protestants either.

gladrags

BBC Live...

Murray....92% postal vote...86% direct vote

Result is 50-50 chance

cloud493

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

Given the British (especially British loyalists) hate the Irish, no chance.

What

vapor trails

Betfair and efficient market hypothesis. Now there's a discussion.

Clare in Exile

Is there any way the Yes side could still win this? Surely the unique nature of this exercise, the fact that there are so many voters (16-18 year olds, those who don't normally vote etc) whose intentions are unpredictable, means that there is still an unknown element to all of this?

Or maybe it is all over bar the counting...

dubscottie

Da Shins Kelly wrote: »

Really that long? Didn't Quebec have two votes in the space of 15 years? And I imagine there'll be another on the cards for them at some point in the future. Not that Quebec is the blueprint or anything.

Interestingly, when I was in Spain last year, the Catalan independence movement were citing the Scottish bid as an example for themselves and what they want. They were hoping that an independent Scotland would be a boost for their own campaign. I imagine they'll have their eye on what's happening tonight.

It may or may not take the SNP 10 or so years to get a majority in the Scottish Parliament again.

Quebec's independence campaign has been funded by the French (allegedly) to give them some say in North America (again allegedly).

A_Sober_Paddy

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

Scotland will never go independent. A lot of Irish people have a really daft romantic view of Scotland and its time it ends. Scotland is more pro English than it is pro Irish that's for sure, and it should be as they're part of the same country and fight and die in the same army together.

Hopefully if anything this changes Ireland's rather naïve view of Scotland as fellow oppressed celts etc.

I don't think the irish people who want a "Yes" vote are hoping for it, as of our Celtic history, but because we want any nation to be free to rule themselves, a struggle our nation has went through...Also under the same ruler...

Frank Lee Midere

feargale wrote: »

That presupposes that about 30% of the electorate are postal voters. Surely not! Also, there is a No bias in postal votes.

Yeah. Actually the size if the sample is fine but it is too weighted to the postal votes.

bennyl10

FloatingVoter wrote: »

Yes. 6 AM was the time I heard. Result is pretty clear now though.

in what way is the result clear can i ask?..
betfair have changed odds, and an ONLINE yougov poll?..

may as well say the sky looks more red than blue so its a no!

Iwasfrozen

Happyman42 wrote: »

The 'Union' is sundered. You are watching the break-up live, whatever the result.

I beg to differ. And (so far) so does Scotland. The Union is stronger than ever Happyman.

kleefarr

yougov sample size only 3000 apparently. :rolleyes:

kingchess

we should have sent over a few unemployed FF tally men to help with counting,those boys would be calling it by now

Red Nissan

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

Scotland will never go independent.

Scotland is the result of NI, I don't say responsible, but they were enthusiastic, so they ARE OUR ENEMIES> in history, and we should despise them and curse them to wherever.

And so forth. It's done, it's done now and a terrible beauty is born, be that be actual defeat, militarily or in a poll, our poll was effectively defeated in 1916 [militarily] and we then had an even worse war, but we ultimately got what a few people wanted, despite, CORK as example being an exemplary English City.

This vote is the beginning. The inevitable conclusion has begun, it will, perhaps not by force of arms, but force of mind, be done.

Frank Lee Midere

Clare in Exile wrote: »

Is there any way the Yes side could still win this? Surely the unique nature of this exercise, the fact that there are so many voters (16-18 year olds, those who don't normally vote etc) whose intentions are unpredictable, means that there is still an unknown element to all of this?

Or maybe it is all over bar the counting...

Exit polls are often off by 4-5%. In this case they don't even have exit polls.

namloc1980

kleefarr wrote: »

yougov sample size only 3000 apparently. :rolleyes:

Not even that. It was 2,632.

Happyman42

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

The union is safe, although demographics are changing favourably in Northern Ireland, there's too many Rory McIlroy's about the place and the biggest problem facing nationalism in NI is the softening catholic vote. If they could get 95% of catholics to vote for UI, perhaps, but they can't. They can't even get any protestants either.

Cast your mind back two years. YES was an impossible dream, now it is very close.
The UK is seriously ill, some medicine has worked (mainly scare tactics) but it is only staving off the inevitable.

bennyl10

namloc1980 wrote: »

Not even that. It was 2,632.

and somehow a 'no' is "pretty clear"..
laughable for anyone to call it this early

NIMAN

Happyman42 wrote: »

Cast your mind back two years. YES was an impossible dream, now it is very close.
The UK is seriously ill, some medicine has worked (mainly scare tactics) but it is only staving off the inevitable.

In what way?

namloc1980

You'd know the Brits don't do referendums too often...No tallymen in anoraks hanging over the counters!

Red Nissan

kingchess wrote: »

we should have sent over a few unemployed FF tally men to help with counting,those boys would be calling it by now

On whose side?

SharpshooterTom

cloud493 wrote: »

What

I post on British political forums and there are daily anti Irish rants by many of the users, from Scottish, Welsh, English people etc. Maybe I read too much stuff from the internet, as I read an awful lot of anti Irish stuff from Digitalspy forums, daily mail, daily telegraph on a regular basis. Perhaps the internet isn't that representative, I surely hope it isn't.

Frank Lee Midere

namloc1980 wrote: »

Not even that. It was 2,632.

That's fine. The question is about the selection. How biased were they to older people with phones, or people more likely to answer etc.

There are people voting here who are not normally picked up.

Iwasfrozen

NIMAN wrote: »

In what way?

Christ, don't get him started.

Avada

If the No vote prevails tonight, I can say another referendum within about 5 years. Given how close the vote is at the moment, it could quite well prevail then.

A younger demographic then, combined with a population pissed off when the British government fails to deliver the many promises that the No campaign have made would surely change it.

Happyman42

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

I beg to differ. And (so far) so does Scotland. The Union is stronger than ever Happyman.

Head firmly in the sand as usual. The Union is under threat tonight, it will survive but only just. That has serious implications, power will be devolved and people get used to power. The Union is in terminal decline.

Frank Lee Midere

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

I post on British political forums and there are daily anti Irish rants by many of the users, from Scottish, Welsh, English people etc. Maybe I read too much stuff from the internet, as I read an awful lot of anti Irish stuff from Digitalspy forums, daily mail, daily telegraph on a regular basis. Perhaps the internet isn't that representative, I surely hope it isn't.

Maybe you are causing it. The telegraph is for nutcases. So too the mail. Digital
Spy is for shut ins.

FloatingVoter

bennyl10 wrote: »

and somehow a 'no' is "pretty clear"..
laughable for anyone to call it this early

Some of us were calling it two weeks back. That amount of undecided will always skew to the status quo. Salmond needed a solid 60% Yes vote to make a Yes victory possible (and allow for last minute change of mind, complacency etc.).
40% rock solid and the other 10% per cent dithering made the outcome inevitable. The only thing playing into his hands was the cartoonish antics of the Westminster brigade over the last 10 days.

ninebeanrows

Where are the tally men!!

The_Kew_Tour

Been to England and Scotland numerous times and lived in Wales and only once did I ever have a anti Irish thing said to me.

Great countries I just hope Scotland deliver but can't see it. No with bit spare for me.

fryup

A_Sober_Paddy wrote: »

I don't think the irish people who want a "Yes" vote are hoping for it, as of our Celtic history, but because we want any nation to be free to rule themselves, a struggle our nation has went through...Also under the same ruler...

but the scottish ruled us, the scottish are british..so we were in effect ruled by them...as others have stated the scots willing played their part in the british empire

jesus some irish people out there have got this deluded notion about scotland and the scottish

comongethappy

Random_Name wrote: »

If the No vote prevails tonight, I can say another referendum within about 5 years. Given how close the vote is at the moment, it could quite well prevail then.

I think this matter is done for a generation.

Project fear worked a treat, the template is set for any future vote.

Iwasfrozen

Happyman42 wrote: »

Head firmly in the sand as usual. The Union is under threat tonight, it will survive but only just. That has serious implications, power will be devolved and people get used to power. The Union is in terminal decline.

I hope power does get devolved. In fact I'm all for a federal United Kingdom based on the US model with parliaments in the four historic regions and Westminster serving as the federal capitol.

Of course this would involve drawing up a constitution but that wouldn't be a bad thing and would actually serve to strengthen the Union long term.

dubscottie

Who is staying up to watch the results coming in?

Ill be here till 4.30..

Anyone else?

FloatingVoter

fryup wrote: »

but the scottish ruled us, the scottish are british..so we were in effect ruled by them...as others have stated the scots willing played their part in the british empire

jesus some irish people out there have got this deluded notion about scotland and the scottish

There were plenty of Irish lads marching about the Raj as well. Dublin was the second city of the Empire.

Specialun

Would the counters get to keep the t shirts

Red Nissan

Actually, IMO, the best result for Scotland right now is a NO vote.

There is no way they'd be independent in an hour's time.

Donkey Oaty

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

I post on British political forums and there are daily anti Irish rants by many of the users, from Scottish, Welsh, English people etc. Maybe I read too much stuff from the internet, as I read an awful lot of anti Irish stuff from Digitalspy forums, daily mail, daily telegraph on a regular basis.

We Irish people should be thankful that we live in a country where nobody harbours any bad feeling or ill-will towards any of our neighbours, especially on an internet forum.

Lenin Skynard

Weathercheck wrote: »

Where are the tally men!!

Tally me banana

pedro1234

dubscottie wrote: »

Who is staying up to watch the results coming in?

Ill be here till 4.30..

Anyone else?

Aye! I'm here with my bottle of Glenmorangie.

Mint Sauce

namloc1980 wrote: »

You'd know the Brits don't do referendums too often...No tallymen in anoraks hanging over the counters!

I think there are tallys. Appeared to be Tally Men/Women at the count centres, and Tally has been mentioned at least once or twice by the panel on the BBC.

Harry Palmr

I think Irish nationalists/republicans are going take any defeat worse than some Scots but only in a meaningless vicarious way.