Scottish Independence discussion area

Frank Lee Midere

FloatingVoter wrote: »

Some of us were calling it two weeks back. That amount of undecided will always skew to the status quo. Salmond needed a solid 60% Yes vote to make a Yes victory possible (and allow for last minute change of mind, complacency etc.).
40% rock solid and the other 10% per cent dithering made the outcome inevitable. The only thing playing into his hands was the cartoonish antics of the Westminster brigade over the last 10 days.

Don't be ridiculous. When votes skew to the status quo it's generally reflected in the polls. In this case the polls went YES a week before, however temporarily. Also there was never any complacency.

And stopping treating today's poll as more scientific than any other. It's probably NO but the margin if error in these polls is greater than normal because this is a very unusual vote.

gladrags

BBC live...

D.U.P & SF MP's say they want talks immeadiately with Westmininster, regarding future of N I,in light of promises made to Scots.

Frank Lee Midere

Mint Sauce wrote: »

I think there are tallys. Appeared to be Tally Men/Women at the count centres, and Tally has been mentioned at least once or twice by the panel on the BBC.

No very obvious in any count I have seen.

Happyman42

NIMAN wrote: »

In what way?

Because devolution will unleash a renewed vigour to go it alone.
The UK isn't working for a lot of people in Scotland, that is the real result here.
In N.I. the UK is seriously ill for demographic reasons.
It's a mess tbh. A bigger one than I thought, before this Scottish debate began.

FloatingVoter

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

Don't be ridiculous. When votes skew to the status quo it's generally reflected in the polls. In this case the polls went YES a week before, however temporarily. Also there was never any complacency.

And stopping treating today's poll as more scientific than any other. It's probably NO but the margin if error in these polls is greater than normal because this is a very unusual vote.

Track my previous posts and see when I started saying the vote would probably be No by a larger margin than the polls were showing. I didn't rig Boards and I don't have a time-travel machine.

Happyman42

Harry Palmr wrote: »

I think Irish nationalists/republicans are going take any defeat worse than some Scots but only in a meaningless vicarious way.

No they aren't. Politically this is a victory, either way.

Donkey Oaty

gladrags wrote: »

BBC live...

D.U.P & SF MP's say they want talks immeadiately with Westmininster, regarding future of N I,in light of promises made to Scots.

I would like to see a No. 10 spokesperson deny that they need this right now like they need a hole in the head.

Red Nissan

Harry Palmr wrote: »

I think Irish nationalists/republicans are going take any defeat worse than some Scots but only in a meaningless vicarious way.

Ye, there is something sensual about a .762mm discharge.

brummytom

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

I post on British political forums and there are daily anti Irish rants by many of the users, from Scottish, Welsh, English people etc. Maybe I read too much stuff from the internet, as I read an awful lot of anti Irish stuff from Digitalspy forums, daily mail, daily telegraph on a regular basis. Perhaps the internet isn't that representative, I surely hope it isn't.

As an English person who plays Irish trad music, I've got a few comments about 'paddies' or 'potatoes'.

I've never, ever heard any real vitriol or hatred towards the Irish, Welsh or Scottish aside from joking about national stereotypes. Of course the internet isn't representative.

Happyman42

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

I hope power does get devolved. In fact I'm all for a federal United Kingdom based on the US model with parliaments in the four historic regions and Westminster serving as the federal capitol.

Of course this would involve drawing up a constitution but that wouldn't be a bad thing and would actually serve to strengthen the Union long term.

Power will be devolved, it will be like introducing woodworm into your house, things will go swimmingly for years but then the main beam on your roof will snap.

Da Shins Kelly

Happyman42 wrote: »

Head firmly in the sand as usual. The Union is under threat tonight, it will survive but only just. That has serious implications, power will be devolved and people get used to power. The Union is in terminal decline.

I don't know that it's in terminal decline, but the belief that the union is somehow better than ever is frankly delusional. There is plenty of discontent in different parts of the UK.

Iwasfrozen

Happyman42 wrote: »

Power will be devolved, it will be like introducing woodworm into your house, things will go swimmingly for years but then the main beam on your roof will snap.

I hope power does get devolved. In fact I'm all for a federal United Kingdom based on the US model with parliaments in the four historic regions and Westminster serving as the federal capitol.

Of course this would involve drawing up a constitution but that wouldn't be a bad thing and would actually serve to strengthen the Union long term.

Red Nissan

brummytom wrote: »

As an English person who plays Irish trad music, I've got a few comments about 'paddies' or 'potatoes'..

Ya have to be half Iris so then, ???

Frank Lee Midere

FloatingVoter wrote: »

Track my previous posts and see when I started saying the vote would probably be No by a larger margin than the polls were showing. I didn't rig Boards and I don't have a time-travel machine.

Yeah. The vote isn't in. All you have is another poll.

Some new info - Edinburgh postal
vote 90%. Good for no. But that actual data.

gladrags

Harry Palmr wrote: »

I think Irish nationalists/republicans are going take any defeat worse than some Scots but only in a meaningless vicarious way.

I don't think so, the cat is out of the bag.

The last two weeks or so have changed the political landscape.

In Brussels tonight there are Scottish flags flying in support of independence,the Belgians of course have a huge i nterest.

A lot of International interest.

Lets try to see it from the Scots perspective,your SF remark is petty.

Harry Palmr

I miss Peter Snow and his swingometer.

Frank Lee Midere

Harry Palmr wrote: »

I miss Peter Snow and his swingometer.

A swing from the last referendum.

Frank Bullitt

What time will early results be announced?

gladrags

brummytom wrote: »

As an English person who plays Irish trad music, I've got a few comments about 'paddies' or 'potatoes'.

I've never, ever heard any real vitriol or hatred towards the Irish, Welsh or Scottish aside from joking about national stereotypes. Of course the internet isn't representative.

Well said brummy.

Happyman42

Da Shins Kelly wrote: »

I don't know that it's in terminal decline, but the belief that the union is somehow better than ever is frankly delusional. There is plenty of discontent in different parts of the UK.

There are huge areas of disenfranchisement in the UK. The boat has been rocked tonight, and it is by no means secure.
Promises have been made, if they aren't met (and I don't think they can) then the rot continues. The narrow No win will count for nothing.

Harry Palmr

Gintonious wrote: »

What time will early results be announced?

About 1 am, I'll retire to the bed and BBC radio 4 see how long I last! :pac:

Reiketsu

"My poll at St Ninian’s found 144 Yes, to 105 No. A further 72 people would not say how they voted."

http://m.newsletter.co.uk/news/regional/news-letter-exit-poll-suggests-late-voters-leant-yes-1-6308540

Donkey Oaty

Gintonious wrote: »

What time will early results be announced?

About 3.50.

Lenin Skynard

Any kind of federal system they could set up would end up looking more like Yugoslavia than USA. A handful of small countries with the slightly bigger one dominating the rest. And look how that ended.

gladrags

Gintonious wrote: »

What time will early results be announced?

Too early to say.

Donkey Oaty

Lenin Skynard wrote: »

And look how that ended.

NATO will bomb England?

Red Nissan

Can ye ne imagine an actual army of four million marching on London.

Impressive polls.

FloatingVoter

Reiketsu wrote: »

"My poll at St Ninian’s found 144 Yes, to 105 No. A further 72 people would not say how they voted."

ttp://m.newsletter.co.uk/news/regional/news-letter-exit-poll-suggests-late-voters-leant-yes-1-6308540

I wasn't entirely joking when I said a late surge in drunken Yes votes. There is also going to be the inevitable controversy about people who voted the wrong way - ie. I voted Yes to stay in and she voted No to the UK. I haven't seen a ballot paper so I don't know how clear they're making it but that Gore victory / loss in Florida does loom especially if it turns out to be decided on a knife edge.

efb

It's all about a devolved federation!

Da Shins Kelly

FloatingVoter wrote: »

I wasn't entirely joking when I said a late surge in drunken Yes votes. There is also going to be the inevitable controversy about people who voted the wrong way - ie. I voted Yes to stay in and she voted No to the UK. I haven't seen a ballot paper so I don't know how clear they're making it but that Gore victory / loss in Florida does loom especially if it turns out to be decided on a knife edge.

I think the question is a clear 'should Scotland be independent?' So I don't think anyone has any excuse for getting it wrong!

NoCrackHaving

Random_Name wrote: »

If the No vote prevails tonight, I can say another referendum within about 5 years. Given how close the vote is at the moment, it could quite well prevail then.

A younger demographic then, combined with a population pissed off when the British government fails to deliver the many promises that the No campaign have made would surely change it.

And they will fail to deliver, it'll be put on the back burner until after the next election I can guarantee it.

dubscottie

gladrags wrote: »

I don't think so, the cat is out of the bag.

The last two weeks or so have changed the political landscape.

In Brussels tonight there are Scottish flags flying in support of independence,the Belgians of course have a huge i nterest.

A lot of International interest.

Lets try to see it from the Scots perspective,your SF remark is petty.

Like the myth that when Celtic win the football all Dublin goes mad..:rolleyes:

Lenin Skynard

Donkey Oaty wrote: »

NATO will bomb England?

That was Kosovo.

Reiketsu

FloatingVoter wrote: »

I wasn't entirely joking when I said a late surge in drunken Yes votes. There is also going to be the inevitable controversy about people who voted the wrong way - ie. I voted Yes to stay in and she voted No to the UK. I haven't seen a ballot paper so I don't know how clear they're making it but that Gore victory / loss in Florida does loom especially if it turns out to be decided on a knife edge.

I don't know how legitimate it is but I saw on Twitter that it simply asks if Scotland should be an independent country and you cross the yes or no box. Just thought I'd pass this along even if it might only be as useful as the YouGov polls

Frank Lee Midere

FloatingVoter wrote: »

I wasn't entirely joking when I said a late surge in drunken Yes votes. There is also going to be the inevitable controversy about people who voted the wrong way - ie. I voted Yes to stay in and she voted No to the UK. I haven't seen a ballot paper so I don't know how clear they're making it but that Gore victory / loss in Florida does loom especially if it turns out to be decided on a knife edge.

It's the clearest ballot paper ever. Google it.

twinytwo

darkpagandeath wrote: »

What's the EU said on their end I assume If they vote for independence they will not be automatically invited to the EU and many many targets and such like will be needed to be met if joining is even an option. Same with the currency has it not already been said the pound is not an option. Wont the EU be making it really difficult to join as they Don’t want EU countries splitting up.

Doesn't matter.... Spain WILL veto Scotland joining the EU until the end if time

oppenheimer1

Lenin Skynard wrote: »

Any kind of federal system they could set up would end up looking more like Yugoslavia than USA. A handful of small countries with the slightly bigger one dominating the rest. And look how that ended.

Devolution of the historic countries won't work in England. It's too big relative to the rest.

A federal UK will see England split into regional assemblies, North, Midlands, south west, home counties and London

dubscottie

First one coming up now..

Lot of people with no experience in politics, elections or statistics questioning the value of a poll with a sample of over 2 thousand people. Awesome.

Frank Lee Midere

@britology_: Scottish Tory leader says that pollsters are out of touch with Scotland and have got the 'no' prediction wrong #ScotlandDecides #indyref

COYVB

FloatingVoter wrote: »

I haven't seen a ballot paper so I don't know how clear they're making it

Very.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

[ ] Yes

[ ] No

Frank Lee Midere

Apparantly the pollsters mis predicted the 1997 welsh referendum.

Donkey Oaty

FloatingVoter wrote: »

I wasn't entirely joking when I said a late surge in drunken Yes votes. There is also going to be the inevitable controversy about people who voted the wrong way - ie. I voted Yes to stay in and she voted No to the UK. I haven't seen a ballot paper so I don't know how clear they're making it but that Gore victory / loss in Florida does loom especially if it turns out to be decided on a knife edge.

Unlikely in this case.

There was no issue of fraud or people turned away from polling booths on dubious pretences, at least that we know about. There is also a process whereby a result is declared by a returning officer, which doesn't exist in the USA.

The question couldn't have been clearer. There are no hanging chads or butterfly ballots in this one.

NoCrackHaving

twinytwo wrote: »

Doesn't matter.... Spain WILL veto Scotland joining the EU until the end if time

I thought the veto rule had been eliminated from EU politics.

gladrags

BBC Live...

SNP say there will be a revolt if westminister promises are not met.

Election 8 months away,Westminister must meet Scottlish demands (SNP)

Orkney turn out 84%..90% turn out in other areas.

dubscottie

If it is a yes win by more than 10% I want the UN to look at it.

Some funny stuff going on..

Kermit.de.frog

If it is a "no" i'd say the world will have a strange view of the Scots. Scotland the brave? *cringe*

Da Shins Kelly

I'm not surprised at all that Spain are strongly opposed to all this. They're concerned about what it'll do to strengthen the Catalan desire for independence.

Frank Lee Midere

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Lot of people with no experience in politics, elections or statistics questioning the value of a poll with a sample of over 2 thousand people. Awesome.

Anniymous poster on the web with no credentials attacking people who question a poll. Awesomer.

The problem isn't the 2000. It's the selection.

FloatingVoter

Da Shins Kelly wrote: »

I think the question is a clear 'should Scotland be independent?' So I don't think anyone has any excuse for getting it wrong!

It should be. Anybody posting here whatever their view clearly has the ability to cast a valid vote. I'm more thinking of crap that a newspaper editor will dream up if the result is really tight. Finding 10 dimwits out of a 4,000,000 strong electorate wouldn't present a problem. I wrote "Yes" in an earlier post and somebody took me up wrong as predicting a Yes vote. Its that easy.