Scottish Independence discussion area

NoCrackHaving

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

@britology_: Scottish Tory leader says that pollsters are out of touch with Scotland and have got the 'no' prediction wrong #ScotlandDecides #indyref

Ah the Scottish Tories...more pandas in Scotland than Tory MP's...poor Ruth is the one out of touch.

namloc1980

twinytwo wrote: »

Doesn't matter.... Spain WILL veto Scotland joining the EU until the end if time

No they wouldn't. Total red herring.

dubscottie

NoCrackHaving wrote: »

Ah the Scottish Tories...more pandas in Scotland than Tory MP's...poor Ruth is the one out of touch.

Stop with the yes campaign.. You are hours too late. Just propaganda now..

Its over!

Results now..

Sunnyisland

Declaration times for the Scottish independence referendum are difficult to forecast owing to the lack of precedents.

The times given below have been drawn up after consulting the 32 Scottish councils, many of which did not wish to give formal estimates.

These can only be taken as a rough guide and may be subject to change throughout the night.


Declaration times by council area
Comhairle nan Eilean Siar - 02:00 (There were concerns this may be delayed as fog was causing problems at Stornoway airport earlier)
North Lanarkshire - 02:00
Inverclyde - 02:00
Orkney - 02:00
East Lothian - 02:00
Perth & Kinross- 02:00
Moray - 02:00
Clackmannanshire - 02:30
West Dunbartonshire - 03:00
Dumfries & Galloway - 03:00
Angus - 03:00
South Lanarkshire - 03:00
East Renfrewshire - 03:00
Dundee - 03:00
Falkirk - 03:00
Renfrewshire - 03:00
East Ayrshire - 03:00
Aberdeenshire - 03:00
Stirling - 03:00
Midlothian - 03:30
Argyll & Bute - 03:30
West Lothian - 03:30
South Ayrshire - 03:30
Shetland - 03:30
East Dunbartonshire - 03:30
Fife - 04:00
Highland - 04:00
North Ayrshire - 04:30
Scottish Borders - 05:00
Edinburgh - 05:00
Glasgow - 05:00
Aberdeen - 06:00

Frank Lee Midere

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

Anniymous poster on the web with no credentials attacking people who question a poll. Awesomer.

The problem isn't the 2000. It's the selection.

Which can be weighted. A quick google will show you about the proper way to do polls. 1k is enough for a +/-2% margin of error with 98/99% confidence.

Harry Palmr

If you watch BBC Parliament they are carrying BBC Scotlands coverage.

NoCrackHaving

dubscottie wrote: »

Stop with the yes campaign.. You are hours too late. Just propaganda now..

Its over!

Results now..

Huh?

What are you on about? Genuinely can't make head nor tail of that post.

FloatingVoter

realies wrote: »

Declaration times for the Scottish independence referendum are difficult to forecast owing to the lack of precedents.

The times given below have been drawn up after consulting the 32 Scottish councils, many of which did not wish to give formal estimates.

These can only be taken as a rough guide and may be subject to change throughout the night.


Declaration times by council area
Comhairle nan Eilean Siar - 02:00 (There were concerns this may be delayed as fog was causing problems at Stornoway airport earlier)
North Lanarkshire - 02:00
Inverclyde - 02:00
Orkney - 02:00
East Lothian - 02:00
Perth & Kinross- 02:00
Moray - 02:00
Clackmannanshire - 02:30
West Dunbartonshire - 03:00
Dumfries & Galloway - 03:00
Angus - 03:00
South Lanarkshire - 03:00
East Renfrewshire - 03:00
Dundee - 03:00
Falkirk - 03:00
Renfrewshire - 03:00
East Ayrshire - 03:00
Aberdeenshire - 03:00
Stirling - 03:00
Midlothian - 03:30
Argyll & Bute - 03:30
West Lothian - 03:30
South Ayrshire - 03:30
Shetland - 03:30
East Dunbartonshire - 03:30
Fife - 04:00
Highland - 04:00
North Ayrshire - 04:30
Scottish Borders - 05:00
Edinburgh - 05:00
Glasgow - 05:00
Aberdeen - 06:00

Which means the big beasts aren't declaring until 5 AM. Unless its really close there should be leakage from the count centres before then though.

namloc1980

Deleted User wrote: »

Which can be weighted. A quick google will show you about the proper way to do polls. 1k is enough for a +/-2% margin of error with 98/99% confidence.

But the pollsters have a lot of unknowns to deal with. Very high turnout and 16/17 year old voters are unprecedented. Their weighting could be as wrong as it could be right.

Fred Swanson

This post has been deleted.

dubscottie

However it goes, this music reminds me of a new start.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vBvvChjBs8

efb

Clackmannanshire 88.6% turnout wow

pedro1234

Yes camp "much happier now than half an hour ago". Senior source says Glasgow "looking good for us". #indyref #Scotland -- James Cook

porsche959

NoCrackHaving wrote: »

Ah the Scottish Tories...more pandas in Scotland than Tory MP's...poor Ruth is the one out of touch.

They have 15% of the vote-only 5% less than the SNP.

You probably didn't know that, did you?

namloc1980

namloc1980 wrote: »

But the pollsters have a lot of unknowns to deal with. Very high turnout and 16/17 year old voters are unprecedented. Their weighting could be as wrong as it could be right.

They can find those things out. Again, a sample size of 1k is enough to make the weights for such things, for 2k+ it's even easier to do.
If they are so far out that "Yes" wins then they're incompetent. Anyone with just about any kind of science/engineering degree or anything where there's stats would be able to get an accurate picture with that kind of information.

NotASheeple

A_Sober_Paddy wrote: »

I don't think the irish people who want a "Yes" vote are hoping for it, as of our Celtic history, but because we want any nation to be free to rule themselves, a struggle our nation has went through...Also under the same ruler...

Amen.

Clandestine

Always relevant:
https://i.imgur.com/Aa1W5.jpg

porsche959

porsche959 wrote: »

They have 15% of the vote-only 5% less than the SNP.

You probably didn't know that, did you?

And you probably know that that's because it was a national election and voting Labour was seen as the best chance of keeping the Tories out. Why not mention the more recent Scottish Parliament election where the SNP got more than 3 times the votes of the Tories?

ProudDUB

Ok, raise your hand if you never even heard of Clackmannanshire prior to tonight. :rolleyes:

Frank Lee Midere

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Which can be weighted. A quick google will show you about the proper way to do polls. 1k is enough for a +/-2% margin of error with 98/99% confidence.

Yeah. I said it wasn't the size of the sample but the methodology and the uniqueness of a referendum with this level of interest. Nate silver says exit polls are always wrong. The welsh referendum was called incorrectly in 1997.

It's probably no. But The yougov poll is worthless.

B.A._Baracus

Sky News are really biast on this one.

McDermotX

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

Sky News are really biast on this one.

Cuz it's a war against England init ??

Kermit.de.frog

Glasgow and Dundee said to be going yes in early tallies.

pedro1234

McDermotX wrote: »

Cuz it's a war against England init ??

Init bruv. Lush.

Micky Dolenz

Looking like they will stick with the Union.

How any country can pass up a chance of independence by a peaceful and structured way is byond me. This was an once in a many life time deal.

Frank Lee Midere

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

Yeah. I said it wasn't the size of the sample but the methodology and the uniqueness of a referendum with this level of interest. Nate silver says exit polls are always wrong. The welsh referendum was called incorrectly in 1997.

It's probably no. But The yougov poll is worthless.

What about the YouGov methodology and weighting suggests to you that it's worthless?
Also I really don't get how Nate Silver gets so much credit. There were 2 states that were hard to call in the last election in the US.

deco nate

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

I post on British political forums and there are daily anti Irish rants by many of the users, from Scottish, Welsh, English people etc. Maybe I read too much stuff from the internet, as I read an awful lot of anti Irish stuff from Digitalspy forums, daily mail, daily telegraph on a regular basis. .

See, that's you're problem!

B.A._Baracus

McDermotX wrote: »

Cuz it's a war against England init ??

Huh?

dubscottie

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Glasgow and Dundee said to be going yes in early tallies.

Source?

fleet_admiral

Anyone else just see the yes paper piled in with the no votes on sky news?

Tedddy

Yes vote in No pile just on Sky News?

Kermit.de.frog

Micky Dolenz wrote: »

Looking like they will stick with the Union.

How any country can pass up a chance of independence by a peaceful and structured way is byond me. This was an once in a many life time deal.

When you look at the big smiles on the faces of some of the no campaign on television you do have to wonder. If they were in Ireland in 1920 they might have been executed as traitors!

I wouldn't go that strong with a tag by any means on them but I agree how can any so called nation not want to run their own affairs?

Frank Lee Midere

[Deleted User] wrote: »

They can find those things out. Again, a sample size of 1k is enough to make the weights for such things, for 2k+ it's even easier to do.
If they are so far out that "Yes" wins then they're incompetent. Anyone with just about any kind of science/engineering degree or anything where there's stats would be able to get an accurate picture with that kind of information.

You don't seem to understand what people are saying to you. Can you read. It's not the freaking sample size, it's the sample itself.

You can correct polls - and they do - when you have indications from previous results vs polls that the polled people tend to lie, ( for instance they underestimate rightwing parties) or don't knows tend to break one way or the other, or that the sample had an age bias, or likeliness to vote.

There is no way they can do that here because they have no precedent. Humans are not automations.

Micky Dolenz

Micky Dolenz wrote: »

Looking like they will stick with the Union.

How any country can pass up a chance of independence by a peaceful and structured way is byond me. This was an once in a many life time deal.

Mel Gibson died for Freedom while these spineless lot won't even vote for it.

porsche959

ProudDUB wrote: »

Ok, raise your hand if you never even heard of Clackmannanshire prior to tonight. :rolleyes:

Must admit I had not, but looking forward to the Stoneybridge tallies whenever they are announced.

JONJO THE MISER

Yes will take it, i still believe.

namloc1980

Deleted User wrote: »

They can find those things out. Again, a sample size of 1k is enough to make the weights for such things, for 2k+ it's even easier to do.
If they are so far out that "Yes" wins then they're incompetent. Anyone with just about any kind of science/engineering degree or anything where there's stats would be able to get an accurate picture with that kind of information.

You mean like the Seanad referendum last year where polls consistently showed a majority in favour of abolition yet the result was the opposite.

pedro1234

Tedddy wrote: »

Yes vote in No pile just on Sky News?

If you have a sky box can you rewind and take a pic?

Frank Lee Midere

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

You don't seem to understand what people are saying to you. Can you read. It's not the freaking sample size, it's the sample itself.

You can correct polls - and they do - when you have indications from previous results vs polls that the polled people tend to lie, ( for instance they underestimate rightwing parties) or don't knows tend to break one way or the other, or that the sample had an age bias, or likeliness to vote.

There is no way they can do that here because they have no precedent. Humans are not automations.

Yet a 1k sample size generally has a 99% confidence +/-2%, you don't think a sample size of over 2k will have the same?
They can correct for postal votes, they can correct for age profile, they can correct for everything.

dubscottie

Deleted User wrote: »

Mel Gibson died for Freedom while these spineless lot won't even vote for it.

Go look at wikipedia.. 50+ film stars have died for Scotland

efb

Harry Palmr wrote: »

If you watch BBC Parliament they are carrying BBC Scotlands coverage.

Cheers

dubscottie

Electoral fraud in Glasgow.. Told you days ago this would happen!!!!

gladrags

BBC Live...

Falkirk to probably vote NO..blow for yes campaign.

Lanackshire to probably vote YES...was expected No.

porsche959

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

When you look at the big smiles on the faces of some of the no campaign on television you do have to wonder. If they were in Ireland in 1920 they might have been executed as traitors!

I wouldn't go that strong with a tag by any means on them but I agree how can any so called nation not want to run their own affairs?

If Scotland has voted No she will gain "Devo Max", i.e., basically home rule- on the same day to a century the Irish Home Rule Act entered law.

May Scotland know less turmoil.

namloc1980

namloc1980 wrote: »

You mean like the Seanad referendum last year where polls consistently showed a majority in favour of abolition yet the result was the opposite.

52-48 went against in the end with a turnout of under 40%. The most recent opinion polls had 29% and 42% of those polled undecided. It's not quite the same thing.

FloatingVoter

Vote Early. Vote Often. So good to see FF tactics in Glasgow.

Sunnyisland

The real poll will not be known until six am, until then goodnight yayers and nayers .

porsche959

Deleted User wrote: »

They can correct for postal votes, they can correct for age profile, they can correct for everything.

If that's the case John Kerry was elected US president in 2004, right?

Tedddy

pedro1234 wrote: »

If you have a sky box can you rewind and take a pic?

can't rewind, there is plenty on twitter at #skynews

pedro1234

Photo evidence here: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bx2j98-CQAAtiRB.jpg

Yes votes in No pile.