The Dublin West 2014 By-Election Thread

Grudaire

Especially since there were rumours that Eithne was chosen as a weak candidate last time around for Lenihans bye-election...

The only thing is that there is a much bigger socialist vote in the constituency*.. it would take something else for a FGer to actually win when there's only a single seat on offer.


*Counting Labour + Socialist (plus Sinn Féin and Greens?) versus
Fine Gael + Fianna Fáil https://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2011B&cons=112

athtrasna

Kiwi_knock wrote: »

Lorraine Mulligan's posters have the tiniest and most transparent Labour logo on them.

Her posters are very strange..almost mug shot esque, really not convincing in a "vote for me" way.

Grudaire

I'm not a huge fan for all the one use posters that candidates have gotten for the bye-election which have 'bye-election' printed on them..

.. seems such a massive waste

athtrasna

Grudaire wrote: »

I'm not a huge fan for all the one use posters that candidates have gotten for the bye-election which have 'bye-election' printed on them..

.. seems such a massive waste

Not at the rate we're having bye-elections in Dublin West

Problem is the timing, there are so many posters at the moment it's hard to tell who's running for what...suits the Coppingers & O'Gormans seeing as they are trying to get us to give them two jobs at the same times. But not so easy for the Bye-Election only candidates unless they do stand out posters.

Kiwi_knock

Yeah it is hard to know if some of the posters are for the locals, European or bye-election. David Hall has the catchy Hall for the Dáil hashtag but you can barely read it on his posters. Should have been clearer with the election he was running in.

athtrasna

Kiwi_knock wrote: »

Yeah it is hard to know if some of the posters are for the locals, European or bye-election. David Hall has the catchy Hall for the Dáil hashtag but you can barely read it on his posters. Should have been clearer with the election he was running in.

A catchy hashtag isn't enough to divorce him from his past, FF to the core. Ran when the excrement hit the rapidly rotating object and was almost lured back to run for Europe. I can't stand fake moral high ground candidates and this guy is the king of them in these elections.

Grudaire

athtrasna wrote: »

Not at the rate we're having bye-elections in Dublin West

We can't have another one anytime soon

athtrasna wrote: »

Problem is the timing, there are so many posters at the moment it's hard to tell who's running for what...suits the Coppingers & O'Gormans seeing as they are trying to get us to give them two jobs at the same times. But not so easy for the Bye-Election only candidates unless they do stand out posters.

I take your point about identifying candidates. But it would be a relatively wealthy candidate to afford new posters for every election (where does the money come from?)
Also Coppinger has a good chance at both, O'Gorman doesn't have a hope in the bye election tbf.

oblivious

oblivious wrote: »

I saw Leo Varadkar having a deep conversion with someone in the car park of Molloys on Monday evening, I wounder was the decision to run with Coghlan been made then ?

Given Alen shatter registration yesterday we could have a D15 minister for Justice

chucknorris

I've been involved in the canvass in Mulhuddart and Castleknock in the last week and I'm not simply saying this for the craic,. but Hall's nae is not coming up at all on doors.

People on the doors understand why there is a bye-election and what happened in the last one - it wasn't that long ago.

I reckon Coghlan will kill off Halls campaign as he'll grab a lot of attention in Castleknock, but yesterday was a bad day for Fine Gael and it's unlikely Coghlan will get the attention he needs (Media wise0 to ramp up his campaign over the next two weeks. Hall appears to be running his campaign from Twitter and claims of 30 canvassers here and there, but no photos to prove it. He also Tweeted that he canvassed Corduff, but he did not.

I fully expect the socialists to rely on the Hartstown, Huntstown, Blakestown area for their core vote (As I have the tallies to show where they received it in the last bye-election) but Ruth has been unusually quiet the last two years since the last bye election and a number of people have noted it on the doors.

The public record on works done at council level for each candidate is testament to that also.

Regarding Sinn Fein, they have to put their hat in to the ring for the bye-election but realistically they are concentrating on the locals as they are most certainly going to do well there. There has been no canvassing for the bye-election in the Castleknock side of Dublin west, or indeed in the swords are or the Ward. SF are positioning for 2016.

The other half is doing extremely well on the doors. I see it as the media sees it - as a close race between the Ruth and David McG. The winner will be dependent on voter turnout and local elections do not command the same turnout historically as presidential elections (as was the case in 2011), but also dependent on where Patrick Nultys vote goes.. One other factor also - if Sinn Fein get's a strong vote in the elections generally, it may pull from the socialists and also the Labour vote.

TWO WEEKS TO GO.

Pat Dunne

chucknorris wrote: »

I've been involved in the canvass in Mulhuddart and Castleknock in the last week and I'm not simply saying this for the craic,. but Hall's nae is not coming up at all on doors.

People on the doors understand why there is a bye-election and what happened in the last one - it wasn't that long ago.

I reckon Coghlan will kill off Halls campaign as he'll grab a lot of attention in Castleknock, but yesterday was a bad day for Fine Gael and it's unlikely Coghlan will get the attention he needs (Media wise0 to ramp up his campaign over the next two weeks. Hall appears to be running his campaign from Twitter and claims of 30 canvassers here and there, but no photos to prove it. He also Tweeted that he canvassed Corduff, but he did not.

I fully expect the socialists to rely on the Hartstown, Huntstown, Blakestown area for their core vote (As I have the tallies to show where they received it in the last bye-election) but Ruth has been unusually quiet the last two years since the last bye election and a number of people have noted it on the doors.

The public record on works done at council level for each candidate is testament to that also.

Regarding Sinn Fein, they have to put their hat in to the ring for the bye-election but realistically they are concentrating on the locals as they are most certainly going to do well there. There has been no canvassing for the bye-election in the Castleknock side of Dublin west, or indeed in the swords are or the Ward. SF are positioning for 2016.

The other half is doing extremely well on the doors. I see it as the media sees it - as a close race between the Ruth and David McG. The winner will be dependent on voter turnout and local elections do not command the same turnout historically as presidential elections (as was the case in 2011), but also dependent on where Patrick Nultys vote goes.. One other factor also - if Sinn Fein get's a strong vote in the elections generally, it may pull from the socialists and also the Labour vote.
TWO WEEKS TO GO.

Thank you chucknorris for your very unbiased Fianna Fail slant on the By Election campaign.

chucknorris

Pat Dunne wrote: »

Thank you chucknorris for your very unbiased Fianna Fail slant on the By Election campaign.

I'm glad you said that.

Take a look at an article that was published AFTER I posted that. You'll find the logic is not just held by me.

I'm not trying to be smart but I tried to give an honest assessment of the bye-election of 2011 on here and I was given a fairly tough time for doing so, but i was being honest and sincere at the time and what I was saying then was largely true.

When I state something here, I am not spinning but stating it as I genuinely see it and I've been around for years in Dublin west. I'd hope others here don't see me as being biased.

http://www.thejournal.ie/who-is-going-to-win-the-dublin-west-by-election-1453482-May2014/

folan

Pat Dunne wrote: »

Thank you chucknorris for your very unbiased Fianna Fail slant on the By Election campaign.

in fairness to him, hes said it on page 1. post 2.

Grudaire

Pat Dunne wrote: »

Thank you chucknorris for your very unbiased Fianna Fail slant on the By Election campaign.

In fairness FF still pull votes because of the goodwill for Brian Lenihan, having canvassed the last bye-election I remember one doorstep telling me that they would be voting for Brian Lenihans replacement!
And McGuinness was second highest for first preferences last bye elections..


(It's madness because FF should be totally toxic at this stage, I won't be voting for them)

chucknorris

Grudaire wrote: »

In fairness FF still pull votes because of the goodwill for Brian Lenihan, having canvassed the last bye-election I remember one doorstep telling me that they would be voting for Brian Lenihans replacement!
And McGuinness was second highest for first preferences last bye elections..


(It's madness because FF should be totally toxic at this stage, I won't be voting for them)

Ah come on now.

Brian Lenihan (RIP) received 16.8% of the vote in the GE of February 2011. He was terminal at the time and got re-elected for the fourth seat.

David received 22% of the vote Six months later in the bye-election - an increase of thousands of votes. There is only one explanation for that. David has support across the constituency and he has been working hard on the council in a vast area.

Patrick Nulty also benefited for those same reasons. Hard work and regular communication.

Hard work and a good handle on what's actually going on and doing the individual stuff counts for an awful lot.

Grudaire

I'm not saying that McGuinness is solely relying on the party name, or that he doesn't do the legwork.

BUT you would be niave to think that Lenihans work and reputation is not a factor in votes for FF in the constiuency.

chucknorris

Grudaire wrote: »

I'm not saying that McGuinness is solely relying on the party name, or that he doesn't do the legwork.

BUT you would be niave to think that Lenihans work and reputation is not a factor in votes for FF in the constiuency.

Of course there is residual support and all parties will have a core, but 2011 brought out a voter from non FF hacks, including the young people and that's something we noticed.

One thing for sure if that the electorate are a lot more switched on than they have ever been and they spot bull s**t quite easily. They examine everything they read and hear and make an informed choice.

The people will have their say on the 23rd.

Grudaire

O'Gorman is in the running for the Greens : http://greenparty.ie/news?n=407

Garrigai

Personally as a Brian Lenihan voter I feel FF should have run a Castleknock candidate. Eamonn Coughlan has my vote

Kiwi_knock

Garrigai wrote: »

Personally as a Brian Lenihan voter I feel FF should have run a Castleknock candidate. Eamonn Coughlan has my vote

Jaysus that is parochialism at its worst, sure vote David Hall he is a FFer from Castleknock.

oblivious

Garrigai wrote: »

Personally as a Brian Lenihan voter I feel FF should have run a Castleknock candidate. Eamonn Coughlan has my vote

What has Coughlan done for the area as a whole??

Zaph

Pat Dunne wrote: »

Thank you chucknorris for your very unbiased Fianna Fail slant on the By Election campaign.

To be fair to Chuck, even as a non-FF voter I don't have any particular issues with the opinions stated in his post. I know you've been involved with the Labour Party in the past Pat, so you're quite entitled to post your opinions as well.

chucknorris wrote: »

Take a look at an article that was published AFTER I posted that. You'll find the logic is not just held by me.

To be unfair to Chuck, that article actually says nothing of the sort. What it does say is:

Unlike 2011, when it seemed the seat would go left to either Nulty or Coppinger, there is no prevailing feeling in Dublin 15 right now.

Grudaire wrote: »

O'Gorman is in the running for the Greens : http://greenparty.ie/news?n=407

Added to the OP.

Pat Dunne

Zaph wrote: »

I know you've been involved with the Labour Party in the past Pat,

Thank you Zaph, just to let you know that I am still very involved with the Labour Party at both a local and a national level.

chucknorris

Zaph I wasn't saying everything in the article was in-line with what I also mentioned, but some very important points were.

- In a slightly left leaning constituency the voter turnout is key for the prospects of the far left. The far left support base does not come out in the same numbers for a LEA as they did in the presidential. Maybe that will change this time.

- FF (David McGuinness won't simply rely on the castleknock vote and will pick up support in a number of areas - will it be enough on this occasion? hard to say but there is support.

- The socialists/AAA (Ruth Coppinger) is a hard one to call this time. The party name has changed, there are various candidates on the same poster etc, so not sure what impact it'll have, but the far left have a core support no doubt.

FG (Coughlan) will pick up votes in Castleknock, but, where will his transfers go? Anyone under 25 will never have heard of him. Fine gael are in melt down this week - does that have an impact on election? He has also never canvassed Dublin west and will only get so far in the Two weeks that are left.

- Hall. I've bounced his name of a lot of people I know and they never heard of him. That may not be the case in Castleknock, but the bye-election is unlikely to be won on the that vote alone.

Sinn Fein (Donnelly) - He has to run in the bye election to consolidate and improve upon the previous bye election in preparation for the GE of 2016. His canvass is still concentrating on Mulhuddart LEA and he will go well there in the LEA. He is unlikely to canvass in Swords or Castleknock on this occasion. I base that on the fact that none of his posters are present in those constituencies with the exception of carefully placed billboards.

Labour (Loraine Mulligan) - I was surprised not to see a local councillor run (and I have been impressed with the work of Mary McCamley), but in hindsight the running of a young and well got candidate in the party, who is also a chair person is probably a matter of putting the best foot forward for the future. Will the large Labour support of 2011 move to Lorraine - I'm not so sure as I reckon that support contained allot of floating voters and a sizable amount of previous Fianna Fail supporters amongst them.

**

On a side note - check out Kieran Dennison on Twitter last night, he has really taken the gloves off this time :-)

ciaran76

Loraine Mulligan I honestly thought she was running as an Independent from her posters but knew she had Labour history.

Only that I had a closer look while running last night did I notice the little Labour symbol on the top left of the poster.

folan

is o'Gorman running for both local and by?

LoonyLovegood

Finglas Incubus wrote: »

Perhaps I missed it but did he disclose an interest in running for the by-election?



From memory, his efforts have been largely sports orientated (no surprise) but I don't recollect i what initiatives he was involved with in the general area, perhaps others have a view.

Dennison "pulled out" of the nomination shortly before the vote.

Speaking purely from a local area standpoint, there's no candidate from east of the Diswellstown bridge standing, which does annoy me a bit. I'm still not sure who my vote will go to, I'm leaning towards FF, purely because McGuinness has done so much work. That he's not standing in the locals has also raised him in my eyes. The fact that I'm even willing to consider him is something, I never thought I'd vote FF in my life.

It's the first election in a fair while that I can't predict who'll get the seat.

Sully

Not sure what its like outside of Waterford, but I've been canvassing for two candidates. Nobody has mentioned Shatter or recent scandals. Any national issue raised is water, and a general frustration/annoyance with the government parties. It's been mostly a decent canvas but there are houses in each estate which publicly state, usually in a polite way, that there not voting anybody running with the two parties.

It may be a different reaction for the national candidates though.

Grudaire

folan wrote: »

is o'Gorman running for both local and by?

Yep

ArmaniJeanss

CTYIgirl wrote: »

I'm leaning towards FF, purely because McGuinness has done so much work. That he's not standing in the locals has also raised him in my eyes. The fact that I'm even willing to consider him is something, I never thought I'd vote FF in my life.

It's the first election in a fair while that I can't predict who'll get the seat.

McGuiness is actually standing in the local election also.

folan

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

McGuiness is actually standing in the local election also.

I'm not sure, according to the list on the fingalcoco.ie site (pdf) he isn't and as far as i know @Chucknorris can confirm.