The Dublin West 2014 By-Election Thread

athtrasna

January wrote: »

He's sharing photos if it's the same candidate I'm seeing.. I didn't think it was an offence!

it is for the people whose photos they were...including his brother IIRC

Hilly Bill

Grudaire wrote: »

The final candidate lists aren't going to change anymore: http://www.dublincountyreturningofficer.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=193:list-of-candidates-2014-bye-election&catid=43:dublin-west-bye-election-2014&Itemid=201

Do Fís Nua not realise you need to campaign to get elected!?

O sugar , i thought it was Irish for Non Party . I think they got my euro vote .

January

Bobblehead Panda wrote: »

Which candidate is that?

FF by-election candidate.

LoonyLovegood

Wait, that's an offence? One of my most detested political 'commentator's posted photos of his completed ballots. Ooooh.

Morag

I posted a pic of my ballot papers, but I didn't take the pic while in the polling booth.

Kiwi_knock

There is a live tally by some on Twitter: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qJodg_zyUXUoGoNy40EHugjBlAXV58ZxQEDACm179ZE/pubhtml

Coppinger in the lead, but Donnelly polling very strongly as well. McGuinness is doing well. Hall is still in contention. It is not looking good for Coghlan. 10% of the boxes have been counted so far.

LoonyLovegood

I'm just wondering where the transfers will go. I can't predict where the bulk of Coughlan or Mulligans will be. They also haven't opened any boxes from the Castleknock end.

athtrasna

Morag wrote: »

I posted a pic of my ballot papers, but I didn't take the pic while in the polling booth.

If the ballots were completed it's illegal, if they were blank then you're grand

Grudaire

CTYIgirl wrote: »

I'm just wondering where the transfers will go. I can't predict where the bulk of Coughlan or Mulligans will be. They also haven't opened any boxes from the Castleknock end.

I've been helping at the tally. The voting patterns are weird a lot of people just putting down number 1s

Green doing better than labour at the moment though for the bye election. Looks like coppinger but it's very early yet

Kiwi_knock

Will be a disaster for FG if Coghlan ends up in 5th. At this stage transfers will be massive.

retalivity

Living in d15 but not eligible to vote here... would love to see coughlan fail miserably. Had his people knocking on the car window at the lights in castleknock on the way to work yesterday, waved them off but they then started trying to put the flyer beteeen the glass and the door! Promptly rolled down the window and told them to fcuk off.
Would never vote fg anyway but the policy of parachuting names or faces in with no experience and clearly no idea what to do (tv3 appearance) really grates on me

Kiwi_knock

Looks like a two horse race at the moment, McGuinness drifting away. Have any Castleknock boxes been opened yet?

Grudaire

Kiwi_knock wrote: »

Looks like a two horse race at the moment, McGuinness drifting away. Have any Castleknock boxes been opened yet?

Don't think so..

LoonyLovegood

Grudaire wrote: »

I've been helping at the tally. The voting patterns are weird a lot of people just putting down number 1s

Green doing better than labour at the moment though for the bye election. Looks like coppinger but it's very early yet

I was talking to my Mam about that when we went in yesterday. She'll usually get to 5 or 6 on the list, she only got to 2.

Kiwi_knock

Donnelly goes ahead with 10% of boxes left. Could a massive shock be on the cards.

LoonyLovegood

44 votes between Donnelly and Coppinger. Boyne, Kidd and Lyons to be eliminated. The Greens have beaten Labour on first preferences by almost 400!

Kiwi_knock

ThisRegard

Kiwi_knock wrote: »

Donnelly goes ahead with 10% of boxes left. Could a massive shock be on the cards.

RTE have the two of them neck and neck. I gave neither a preference but would rather Donnelly over Copinger.

ThisRegard

Donnolly ahead on the actual count. No one called that this morning. Who's more transfer friendly?

Kiwi_knock

Still would have Coppinger as favourite, but then no one thought Donnelly would do that well.

Donnelly (SF) 6056
Coppinger (SP) 5977
McGuinness (FF) 5053
Hall (Ind) 3803
Coghlan (FG) 3715
O’Gorman (Grn) 1856
Mulligan (Lab) 1505

Grudaire

I imagine coppinger is more transfer friendly. So I'd still guess that she had it..

Either way very glad to see Roderic do better than Labour! :-)

rockatansky

I can see Ruth Coppinger getting the seat alright. As mentioned already she would be more transfer friendly.

LoonyLovegood

I'm looking from the Castleknock end of things though, Donnelly and Coppinger have their heartlands in the same area, while here's always been more FF/Lab. With Mulligan and O'Gorman being elimnated here, I reckon Hall/McGuinness could do well from them. But it's still all to play for.

Plus, I reckon Coppinger will call a recount anyway.

Grudaire

CTYIgirl wrote: »

I'm looking from the Castleknock end of things though, Donnelly and Coppinger have their heartlands in the same area, while here's always been more FF/Lab. With Mulligan and O'Gorman being elimnated here, I reckon Hall/McGuinness could do well from them. But it's still all to play for.

Plus, I reckon Coppinger will call a recount anyway.

Green and Labour.. Both left of centre.. Shouldn't be natural ff/ex-ff supporters. I think the big surprise will be how many voters didn't go down the last beyond 3..

Zaph

Grudaire wrote: »

I think the big surprise will be how many voters didn't go down the last beyond 3..

I think there'll be an unprecedented number of non-transferable votes once we get a few counts in. That's going to make getting an early lead even more important than ever.

Kiwi_knock

Coppinger goes ahead. Coghlan eliminated. McGuinness will be looking to go ahead of Donnelly with Coghlan's and Hall's votes.

#dubw third count result: Coghlan 4,693, Coppinger 6,744, Donnelly 6,296, Hall 4,783, McGuinness 5,691

Zaph

Would have suited McGuinness better to have Hall eliminated first. Given that Coghlan and Hall are both Castleknock based, there's an outside chance that Hall could overtake McGuinness in the next count.

Kiwi_knock

McGuinness goes second. Hall eliminated, where will his votes.

Fourth #dubw count: Coppinger 7,342, McGuinness 6,789 (1,098 transfers), Donnelly 6,516, Hall 5,846

Kiwi_knock

Donnelly eliminated, would be a shock if McGuinness overtook Coppinger.

Coppinger 8807
McGuinness 8163
Donnelly 7028

Hilly Bill

Topping the poll with the first preference and then getting knocked out ??? its a strange system.