The Dublin West 2014 By-Election Thread

Zaph

Not really, it very often happens that the first count poll topper slips down the list when transfers start kicking in. And in Donnelly's case it's because SF aren't anywhere near as transfer friendly as the other parties.

Kiwi_knock

Coppinger has been elected as our TD.

athtrasna

Hilly Bill wrote: »

Topping the poll with the first preference and then getting knocked out ??? its a strange system.

Welcome to the beauty of PR-STV. It's a strange system but probably more reflective of the actual sentiment.

Listening to Newstalk tonight they've made an interesting point about FF in the next election. Chambers did so well today, and the Navan Road switches from being Dublin Central to Dublin West so Mary Fitzpatrick moves into the constituency...add in McGuinness, and potentially Lenihan...it could be quite the dogfight to get on the FF ticket!

rockatansky

Personally I would have liked Paul Donnelly to get it. Im sure for many there was a sigh of relief when he / Sinn Fein was eliminated however for me i'm just glad it didn't go to Fianna Fail.

I'm still in total shock at how well they've done in this Election. With some of the old guard making a comeback I would have thought that it would have worked against them, obvioulsy not.

Toto Wolfcastle

Fianna Fáil benefited from the fact that many people didn't want to vote FG or Labour, nor did they want to vote Sinn Féin or Socialist/Anti Austerity. FF were the best of a bad lot in a lot of cases. And certainly in Dublin West David McGuinness seems to be well respected.

athtrasna

Well done Dublin West...you gave us yet another unelected Councillor and a new TD who's just going to be against everything

Toto Wolfcastle

athtrasna wrote: »

Well done Dublin West...you gave us yet another unelected Councillor and a new TD who's just going to be against everything

It will be fun watching her not implement any of her policies. Or you never know, maybe she'll arrive into the Dáil and convince them to drop the property tax and water charges.

January

After the way she's behaved the last couple of days outside my daughters school she didn't get a vote off me anyway. Berating people for not taking a leaflet from her.

Zaph

January wrote: »

After the way she's behaved the last couple of days outside my daughters school she didn't get a vote off me anyway. Berating people for not taking a leaflet from her.

Seriously? I haven't taken a leaflet from anyone, but I wouldn't be long in telling her where to go if she did that to me.

Kiwi_knock

Will be an interesting next general election in the area. None of the parties have a big enough vote to elect two candidates, so will the parties only run 1 candidate each. Will be a tough battle for the 4 seats next time.

Grudaire

Varadkar will surely have to run a second person. Anyone looking at leadership needs to be comfortable in their seat

LoonyLovegood

I was disgusted she got it, to be honest. We don't need another TD who is just there to raise their profile, we've three of them already.

Zaph

Dennison seems to be the only realistic option for a second FG candidate in a general election, but I don't think they have a hope of actually getting two elected.

rockatansky

Bobblehead Panda wrote: »

Fianna Fáil benefited from the fact that many people didn't want to vote FG or Labour, nor did they want to vote Sinn Féin or Socialist/Anti Austerity. FF were the best of a bad lot in a lot of cases. And certainly in Dublin West David McGuinness seems to be well respected.

Fianna Fáil, best of a bad lot. They should have had that as their campaign slogan. Is there no consideration to he given to the fact that it was Fianna Fail that got us into this state??

LoonyLovegood

Well Coughlan was talking today about running again, and Varadkar was with him while he did.

jack presley

CTYIgirl wrote: »

Well Coughlan was talking today about running again, and Varadkar was with him while he did.

Nice pun!

Kiwi_knock

Varadkar and Coghlan would be competing for the same votes so can not see Leo being happy with Coghlan as his running mate. He will want someone in Mulhuddart for him.

ThisRegard

athtrasna wrote: »

Well done Dublin West...you gave us yet another unelected Councillor and a new TD who's just going to be against everything

Exactly my thinking. 3 elections now we get an unelected socialist populist.

On the bright side, the result of the socialists last political stroke, Paul Murphy, spectacularly failed.

January wrote: »

After the way she's behaved the last couple of days outside my daughters school she didn't get a vote off me anyway. Berating people for not taking a leaflet from her.

She accused me of having an agenda when she didn't like the questions I was asking her. At least she can't do any damage in the dail, she'll just be another talking head handy for a lazy sound bite.

daymobrew

rockatansky wrote: »

Is there no consideration to be given to the fact that it was Fianna Fail that got us into this state??

Having a memory!! Now that is really expecting too much of the voters :-)
Next you'll be expecting them to think. ;-)

Can't believe Coppinger got it in the end. After the ridiculous nonsense she was coming out with on the Vincent Browne show and her stupid little traffic slower on the roads around the shopping centre the other day.

Godge

Bobblehead Panda wrote: »

Fianna Fáil benefited from the fact that many people didn't want to vote FG or Labour, nor did they want to vote Sinn Féin or Socialist/Anti Austerity. FF were the best of a bad lot in a lot of cases. And certainly in Dublin West David McGuinness seems to be well respected.

This was another election where the anti-everything policy position prevailed. From Ming to Coppinger to AAA to SF and even FF, if you are against everything, you got a vote.

Will that last? Not for ever. At some stage the electorate will want a party that has something positive to say about the future. That may be the next election if unemployment keeps coming down, growth is up, wages are up etc. Or the election after.

The question I have is what will the anti-austerity alliance be against, once austerity is no longer needed and the country has turned a corner?

sock puppet

Godge wrote: »

This was another election where the anti-everything policy position prevailed. From Ming to Coppinger to AAA to SF and even FF, if you are against everything, you got a vote.

Will that last? Not for ever. At some stage the electorate will want a party that has something positive to say about the future. That may be the next election if unemployment keeps coming down, growth is up, wages are up etc. Or the election after.

The question I have is what will the anti-austerity alliance be against, once austerity is no longer needed and the country has turned a corner?

They will probably go in the same direction as Labour in the UK have but more hard line. Western economies will likely see downward pressure on wages for a while to come so when the deficit is eliminated and the job market returns to normal they'll attack below inflation wage rises and expensive utilities etc. Whether it'll be successful is another matter.

Pepe LeFrits

ThisRegard wrote: »

she'll just be another talking head handy for a lazy sound bite.

I got that impression too when I saw her on RTE over the weekend. Ignored the questions asked and immediately pivoted to the angry rhetoric; no shortage of flowery adjectives and all the buzzwords dropped in.

There was a young SF chap on the RTE panel on Saturday around the same time, I think he was on with John Paul Phelan and an FF Senator - anyone catch his name? He was analytical and well spoken, it was a strong contrast.

Kiwi_knock

Pepe LeFrits wrote: »

I got that impression too when I saw her on RTE over the weekend. Ignored the questions asked and immediately pivoted to the angry rhetoric; no shortage of flowery adjectives and all the buzzwords dropped in.

There was a young SF chap on the RTE panel on Saturday around the same time, I think he was on with John Paul Phelan and an FF Senator - anyone catch his name? He was analytical and well spoken, it was a strong contrast.

Eoin Ó Broin is the SF chap, councillor for Clondalkin.

As someone remarked to Ruth yesterday, she was no longer running for election so she should have stopped with the anti-government rhetoric and instead actually analysed the election results. Anytime she was asked a question she responded with a mad long spiel about the government.

Murt10

Brendan Howlin tore up the Croke Park agreement, with its paycuts and changes which had been negotiated and accepted. He flung it back into the faces of public sector workers and demanded more cuts and pain. He believed the FG party telling him that they would get over it

What that smug wee man didn't understand was that a huge proportion public servants vote in every single election and that these workers have long memories, and predominantly voted Labour, up to now.

The fact that, in addition to the pay cuts which they have now adjusted to, they still have to work an additional 1/2 hour every single day, and they regard every one of those long last 30 long minutes of being the direct responsibility of Howlin & co.

Revenge is a dish best eaten cold.

Godge

Murt10 wrote: »

Brendan Howlin tore up the Croke Park agreement, with its paycuts and changes which had been negotiated and accepted. He flung it back into the faces of public sector workers and demanded more cuts and pain. He believed the FG party telling him that they would get over it

What that smug wee man didn't understand was that a huge proportion public servants vote in every single election and that these workers have long memories, and predominantly voted Labour, up to now.

The fact that, in addition to the pay cuts which they have now adjusted to, they still have to work an additional 1/2 hour every single day, and they regard every one of those long last 30 long minutes of being the direct responsibility of Howlin & co.

Revenge is a dish best eaten cold.

Exactly why Labour lost this election. Their core vote was public servants members of trade unions. Whether or not you agree with the pay cuts, the annual leave cuts and the extra hours, they were the reason Labour was hammered.

ThisRegard

Murt10 wrote: »

What that smug wee man didn't understand was that a huge proportion public servants vote in every single election and that these workers have long memories, and predominantly voted Labour, up to now.

And many, be if of their own choice or directions of their union, are completely unrealistic when it comes to the economy. Such as them last week demanding wage increases next year if the economy continues to improve.

Two points on this, they admitted that austerity is working and the economy is improving.

Secondly, shows their economic illiteracy in wanting their snouts put straight back into the trough rather than have the money used where its needed most while the country gets back on its feet.

chucknorris

Thank fully I have my life back.

There is no doubt that the Labour support went to Sinn Fein in Dublin west. There was a big question on where it would go, but I doubt many would have expected it to go so heavily to SF.

This may sound crazy, but I've a sneaking suspicion that the Shinners will actually threaten the socialist seat in 2016. I reckon David Hall has his eye on the Labour seat. I only base this on what appears to be the case, as the media stated all weekend, that the 'coping class' didn't come out and vote, but when they do, that's the way it may shape up.

Personally I'm delighted with how David has done on this occasion. The one thing and the big thing that handicaps David is his membership of Fianna fail. It's extremely hard to escape it and Dublin is not as FF friendly as the rest of the country has become. It'll take a lot of work to achieve the recovery in Dublin.

David is very much transfer friendly. He required that in 2009 also, as the Socialists and the Shinners have always topped the LEA polls in Mulhuddart. On the occasions when Nulty did too, it was always thanks to the hugh left vote.

I'd agree with a lot of what has been said above, in that Coppinger will achieve nothing in the Dail and that being opposed to everything is a dead cert for votes. Eventually someone middle of the road will benefit.

In terms of the locals:

I was delighted for Rodric O'Gorman in castleknock. he has worked very hard and suffered over Ten years, again due to his party membership. I was not surprised to see O'Donovan unelected as he literally didn't do a tap for Five years, but put a few quid behind a re-election campaign and hoped to scrape in - again. Not good enough,

Kieran Dennison scraped in and the sense I got was that he being snubbed again by FG led to him to relax on the campaigning and see if he could be re-elected on his previous record and he was.

Mary Martin lost out to the AAA by 4 votes, such is the importance of preferences.

My final reaction to the local election results is that Fingal will find it next ti impossible to agree on a budget. Watch this space for the fall out from that.

Batholemow Cubbins

chucknorris wrote: »

There is no doubt that the Labour support went to Sinn Fein in Dublin west. There was a big question on where it would go, but I doubt many would have expected it to go so heavily to SF.

I don't think it is that surprising at all actually - Donnelly does an anwful lot of work on the ground in the community and people respect him for that, aside from any feelings they might have about SF.

chucknorris wrote: »

This may sound crazy, but I've a sneaking suspicion that the Shinners will actually threaten the socialist seat in 2016. I reckon David Hall has his eye on the Labour seat. I only base this on what appears to be the case, as the media stated all weekend, that the 'coping class' didn't come out and vote, but when they do, that's the way it may shape up.

This is pretty funny as I experienced first hand some pretty dodgy comments from the FF canvassers about David Hall and his past - you wouldn't know anything about that, would you chuck?

chucknorris wrote: »

The one thing and the big thing that handicaps David is his membership of Fianna fail. It's extremely hard to escape it and Dublin is not as FF friendly as the rest of the country has become. It'll take a lot of work to achieve the recovery in Dublin.

Why doesn't he go Independent then? Seems strange that you would say this, and yet we see pictures of him hanging out with Michael Martin in the run up to the election. I reckon Anita Lenihan is going to be wheeled out in the next general election and your candidate will be pushed into the background by HQ, sad but true.

chucknorris wrote: »

David is very much transfer friendly. He required that in 2009 also, as the Socialists and the Shinners have always topped the LEA polls in Mulhuddart. On the occasions when Nulty did too, it was always thanks to the hugh left vote.

Evidently not transfer friendly enough chuck.

chucknorris wrote: »

I'd agree with a lot of what has been said above, in that Coppinger will achieve nothing in the Dail and that being opposed to everything is a dead cert for votes. Eventually someone middle of the road will benefit.

Where has that been said above? Don't be stating your own opinions and try to pass them off as fact or the generally held view.

chucknorris wrote: »

I was not surprised to see O'Donovan unelected as he literally didn't do a tap for Five years, but put a few quid behind a re-election campaign and hoped to scrape in - again. Not good enough,

Pretty bad form to be knocking someone else who didn't get in, chuck. Maybe you should let the electorate make up their own mind, there were better options, etc?

chucknorris wrote: »

Kieran Dennison scraped in and the sense I got was that he being snubbed again by FG led to him to relax on the campaigning and see if he could be re-elected on his previous record and he was.

I have no love for FG but any time I have dealt with Kieron Dennison I found him to be very good. I think he is a good Councillor that has no aspirations to be stuck in the Dail every day where he would be of little impact - I am happier that he is staying as a Councillor. Sometimes people should accept their role and not try to let their ambiton over-reach them.... imho.

chucknorris

Batholemow Cubbins wrote: »

I don't think it is that surprising at all actually - Donnelly does an anwful lot of work on the ground in the community and people respect him for that, aside from any feelings they might have about SF.



This is pretty funny as I experienced first hand some pretty dodgy comments from the FF canvassers about David Hall and his past - you wouldn't know anything about that, would you chuck?



Why doesn't he go Independent then? Seems strange that you would say this, and yet we see pictures of him hanging out with Michael Martin in the run up to the election. I reckon Anita Lenihan is going to be wheeled out in the next general election and your candidate will be pushed into the background by HQ, sad but true.



Evidently not transfer friendly enough chuck.



Where has that been said above? Don't be stating your own opinions and try to pass them off as fact or the generally held view.



Pretty bad form to be knocking someone else who didn't get in, chuck. Maybe you should let the electorate make up their own mind, there were better options, etc?



I have no love for FG but any time I have dealt with Kieron Dennison I found him to be very good. I think he is a good Councillor that has no aspirations to be stuck in the Dail every day where he would be of little impact - I am happier that he is staying as a Councillor. Sometimes people should accept their role and not try to let their ambiton over-reach them.... imho.

RE: Labours vote

No doubt, however it was more a question of whether the Labour vote was a left vote completely or not. It was a big unknown as the labour vote extended across the constituency from the GE of 2011 and the bye-election. Clearly the answer is clear now

RE: Hall

I experienced those comments myself, from practically all parties canvassers. They were all at it. It wasn't one rumor, it was several. You wouldn't know anything about that, would you?


RE: FF membership

He is what he is. It's a simple acceptance of how it is out there, nothing more. ps: he'll be fine one way or the other .

RE: Transfers

Without a doubt it wasn't enough. A 55% turnout would have been needed to really scoop up enough. That 55% would happen in a GE, not during an LEA. Only 39% turned out and that's not good

RE: Opinion on Coppinger?

Athrasna wrote: "Well done Dublin West...you gave us yet another unelected Councillor and a new TD who's just going to be against everything"

Did you not see that comment and other similar ones in the thread?

RE: Donovan

He simply wasn't active enough. It's just the way it is. It's politics, not personal.

RE: Dennison

I'm sorry, but Kieran wanted to run in the bye-election. he was shafted - twice. he deserved a shot at it. I think he has worked hard.