What is your opinion of the future of property prices?

bidiots

for?

El_Dangeroso

gaius c wrote: »

Not borne out by data from the PPR.

Is that data for Galway county or city? If county, then it's not really meaningful for the city as Galway county is a huge geographical area, and prices in Athenry bear no relation to prices in Sathill or within city limits.

bidiots

I think they have finally realised that thus lack of reply.

dizzymiss

El_Dangeroso wrote: »

Is that data for Galway county or city? If county, then it's not really meaningful for the city as Galway county is a huge geographical area, and prices in Athenry bear no relation to prices in Sathill or within city limits.

Im inclined to agree with this. Having been watching the Galway market for sometime now and trying to get ourselves into a house, there is a huge difference between Galway City and County. From what we have observed, houses in the county tend to go for below asking, in the city the opposite is true. Also, supply in the city is much lower than that of the wider county. Places like Dunmore, Ballinasloe, Gort etc. have any amount of pretty decent properties at good prices but alas they are just a bit too far out of our range in terms of work, childcare etc

We would love to stay in the city but there is nothing decent inside our price range so have had to look further afield. Im okay with this because I do like the idea of have more space for our growing family and dog.

On a side not, I have found that local country EA seem to be far more realistic about prices and forth coming with information than the bigger ones in town.

jmayo

Ray Palmer wrote: »

I assume you are connected to that blog and didn't you also claim that RA kept rents artificially high?

I am not connected to that blog.
I just found the graphs a useful illustration of my point.

And yes I did claim RA did have a distortion on the rental market.
And I still think that RA has an affect on the rental market.
There are a lot of places rented with RA.

BTW one of the things you failed to mention in all the changes that have occurred over years is the change on bedsits.
That has had an affect on the rental market has it not.

Ray Palmer wrote: »

I have no idea where those figure come from or their accuracy. They are just charts which I assume come from some blog where you are somebody with a set view has already got a view is using them to make a point. In other words not an independent rational analysis of the issue.

So you want independent non blog analysis well then here you are, knock yourself out.
How about Eurostat for starters.
You appear to have issues with the idea that we are a debt riddled country for some reason.

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=teina225

See Ireland and see how it states Debt to GDP is 123.7 for 2013.
Which would be basically the same as that blog.

BTW the figure for Ireland in 1980s is backed up in a Karl Whelan paper, page 2.

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=teina225

Here is an idea of where Ireland lies in terms of household debt in 20011.
And yes i know Netherlands and Denmark are worse and we have reduced some of that in the last couple of years.
It still aint that good though.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Dvbruu1IeO0/Ug5i--lI1UI/AAAAAAAAItU/2lgxceL1Ojk/s640/Debt+to+Income+Norway+and+other.png

And here is another one...

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/clip_image042_thumb.gif


At this stage I guess you will say I am associaetd with all those sites.
Yeah I am pretty busy alright. :rolleyes:

Ray Palmer wrote: »

I don't really care when people start saying what the government is preventing or how something is their fault and what should, could, must be done. The reality is all that counts. Repossessions haven't happened there doesn't look like there is going to be a sudden move any time soon. Wild speculation on what could happen IF they followed some plan that they have no plans to do is really pointless.

Negative equity and debit of the country are similar no problem if you can service.

The problem is that they really aren't servicable and trying to service them means there is no money available for anything else.
Remember the whole thing about consumer spending.

gaius c

bidiots wrote: »

for?

This:

bidiots wrote: »

For the past year there has been a mini bubble in certain area's of Galway

Potatoeman

jmayo wrote: »

The problem is that they really aren't servicable and trying to service them means there is no money available for anything else.
Remember the whole thing about consumer spending.

I wonder how much of the money made on sales leaves the country. I know of a few older couples that sold properties and used the money to buy property in Spain and Portugal where they spend the winter or half the year. I know many people claim that the profits from higher property price sales stay in the economy but is it more likley to leave the country if the sellers are retired?

bidiots

gaius c wrote: »

This:

gaius c wrote: »

Citation please.

House in Roscam for 330, houses in need of renovation in Renmore going for 250...compared to 3 years ago, its nuts. Citation? How about you come up with a graph that's at least relevant.

jackal

Villa05 wrote: »

The property require considerable refurbishment and has an asking price of €365,000 which is 10 times average salary and nearly 20 times average disposable income (Income - State deductions)
e

The average salary is higher that €30,000, that figure is out of date.
The average salary in dublin is going to be higher again than the national average.
Most potential buyers of this property comprise of two people with a household income presumably well in excess of €60,000 per year.

So you can sit there thinking things are as out whack as you mention above, waiting for "sanity" to return to the market, or you can realise that you are comparing apples and oranges. This house is not going to be bought by a single person on an average national wage.

gaius c

bidiots wrote: »

House in Roscam for 330, houses in need of renovation in Renmore going for 250...compared to 3 years ago, its nuts. Citation? You come up with a graph that's at least relevant.

One house?
That's very compelling evidence alright.

Is €250k an asking or selling price btw?

makeorbrake

jackal wrote: »

So you can sit there thinking things are as out whack as you mention above, waiting for "sanity" to return to the market, or you can realise that you are comparing apples and oranges. This house is not going to be bought by a single person on an average national wage.

At the end of the day, people decide what they are prepared to pay for anything - both sellers and buyers.

I'm not waiting for 'sanity' to return. I've simply drawn a line under it - and won't be buying a current pricing. If more people did that, then there might be some logic to this market. Has anyone checked pricing in comparable (and I mean comparable!) european cities to Galway? The europeans wouldnt pay these prices...

The Spider

Galway in my opinion is on a par with most small cities in the south east of England in terms of desirability on this Island. None of those are cheap in fact you can browse through the below link.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/houseprices/9607526/The-10-most-expensive-and-least-expensive-cities-in-Britain.html?frame=2368399

Galway is second to Dublin in terms of desirable places to live in Ireland, so that's why prices are high.

JohnFalstaff

gaius c wrote: »

One house?
That's very compelling evidence alright.

Is €250k an asking or selling price btw?

Not sure if it's the house in question, but 24 Dun Na Mara in Renmore was sold a few weeks ago for €255,250. It's a four bed semi and is 'in need of modernisation'.

I'd agree that there is a definite two tier housing market developing in Galway along city/county lines. It's a similar situation to the market in Dublin - there's a shortage of good quality family homes in the city.

The O'Donellan Joyce auction tomorrow will be an interesting barometer on where the Galway housing market is headed.

makeorbrake

The Spider wrote: »

Galway in my opinion is on a par with most small cities in the south east of England .

You're having a laugh buddy!! - the SOUTH EAST of england!!? The power house of the english economy.

That's not an equitable comparison.

bidiots

gaius c wrote: »

One house?
That's very compelling evidence alright.

Is €250k an asking or selling price btw?

That was an example of a few houses. You were very quick to throw in an irrelevant diagram so I'm sure you can manage looking up relevant prices.

jmayo

Potatoeman wrote: »

I wonder how much of the money made on sales leaves the country. I know of a few older couples that sold properties and used the money to buy property in Spain and Portugal where they spend the winter or half the year. I know many people claim that the profits from higher property price sales stay in the economy but is it more likley to leave the country if the sellers are retired?

Lets break elderly older sellers into a few groups.

• Those that owe nothing on their property and never extended themselves in the boom to buy more property either here or overseas.
  - In this case the money may remain in the country or it may be used to buy that retirement pad overseas.
• If the sellers did extend themselves during the boom then they may owe money on their home (ala paying off the extended or new mortgage) or they may owe money on other property.
  - Either way it disappears down a black hole into one of the banks and ultimately leaves the country to pay off their debts.
• Then there are a lot of elderly sellers who had helped finance their kids during the boom and they have been burnt or they now need to give money to kids to bail them out.
  - Again this money can end up filling a banks black hole and ultimately is destined to leave the jurisdiction.

makeorbrake wrote: »

You're having a laugh buddy!! - the SOUTH EAST of england!!? The power house of the english economy.

That's not an equitable comparison.

I think the poster is trying to say Galway is on a par with small cities in the South East of UK in terms of nationwide desirability, not in terms of price.

Or at least that is what I hope he means.
In this case it can be hard to fathom.

I do think Galway, or parts of it, has always been more desirable than say Limerick, Waterford or even Cork.
Also it has had a pretty good FDI history with a fair number of large multinationals siting themselves around the city.
And it always ranks high as a fairly nice place to lvie with lots of facilities.

Idbatterim

I reckon in general prices will rise nationally in mid single digit percentages on average for the next few years... Say prices are now 40% below peak (max was 50% from peak), are those now not buying waiting for another property market implosion? another bust happens in say 5/6 years, prices halve again. You save what? 10% on the asking price v buying now, IF we every experience that sort of implosion again (highly unlikely given in the short to medium term given the hawk eyes that will be on us and once bitten twice shy nature of people who have been stung), one thing is for sure though, you will have spent X amount on rent, that is a guarantee.

gaius c

bidiots wrote: »

That was an example of a few houses. You were very quick to throw in an irrelevant diagram so I'm sure you can manage looking up relevant prices.

Sorry but you don't quite seem to get the hang of this internet debate lark. You make an assertion so YOU have to stand by it and prove it, not anybody else.

4 houses where prices are going up at a single point in time and you're extrapolating from this? Are you being serious?

jackal

makeorbrake wrote: »

At the end of the day, people decide what they are prepared to pay for anything - both sellers and buyers.

I'm not waiting for 'sanity' to return. I've simply drawn a line under it - and won't be buying a current pricing. If more people did that, then there might be some logic to this market. Has anyone checked pricing in comparable (and I mean comparable!) european cities to Galway? The europeans wouldnt pay these prices...

Well the thing is that what people are prepared to pay quickly becomes what people are able to pay when renting is not a cheaper option - as is the case in Dublin at the moment. Renting say a family home in SCD is often working out more expensive per month than the equivalent mortgage.

Not buying at current pricing, I don't blame you. I am just saying be realistic about pricing. The old rule of thumb about typical house price multiples of 3x industrial wage are gone since women were not forced to retire when they married. They will not be seen again. What would you say is a reasonable measure, given a typical "buyer" now comprises 2 wage earners?

Comparing prices to cities is Europe is a bit of a cod too. A lot of european cities have regulated rental markets where very long term rental, with basically all the rights of a homeowner, are a possibility. Ireland, not so much. If the rental market offered security and stability in pricing, buying would be a much less attractive option here.

bidiots

gaius c wrote: »

Sorry but you don't quite seem to get the hang of this internet debate lark. You make an assertion so YOU have to stand by it and prove it, not anybody else.

4 houses where prices are going up at a single point in time and you're extrapolating from this? Are you being serious?

Stand by my opinion? Of course I do. I gave you an example of my argument, You are the one who tried to prove my opinion wrong with worthless diagrams. Go do your own homework if you want to prove me wrong and come back to me with relevant arguments. Or maybe its you who doesn't quite get this internet debate lark.

Villa05

Idbatterim wrote: »

I reckon in general prices will rise nationally in mid single digit percentages on average for the next few years... Say prices are now 40% below peak (max was 50% from peak), are those now not buying waiting for another property market implosion? another bust happens in say 5/6 years, prices halve again. You save what? 10% on the asking price v buying now, IF we every experience that sort of implosion again (highly unlikely given in the short to medium term given the hawk eyes that will be on us and once bitten twice shy nature of people who have been stung), one thing is for sure though, you will have spent X amount on rent, that is a guarantee.

Many (if not most) are not buying because they can't afford to. Sales are close to historical lows with half the sales in cash. The market is completely and utterly dysfunctional. It would take very little to send prices one direction or the other in this environment, at present it is supply constraints driving them higher.

The media speak about pent up demand because of the low sales volumes over the past 5/6 years. If there was pent up demand sales volumes would be close to historical highs, not lows. I think they just want the advertising revenue from the bubble back and will do everything in their power to try and achieve it. Remember we had to bail out many of those media organisations as well through debt write offs

gaius c

bidiots wrote: »

Stand by my opinion? Of course I do. I gave you an example of my argument, You are the one who tried to prove my opinion wrong with worthless diagrams. Go do your own homework if you want to prove me wrong and come back to me with relevant arguments. Or maybe its you who doesn't quite get this internet debate lark.

Petrol station down the road from me in Dublin put their prices up by 2c a litre yesterday. I think I'll pop over to the economic forum and tell them there's a petrol price spike in "certain areas" of Dublin, extrapolate this into "something that sounds ominous" and wait to be laughed out of town.

See how useless your logic is for looking at trends over time?

Also, you didn't give examples. You referred to house that according to you, backup your argument AKA an anecdote that might have come from your imagination. An example would have been a link or some independent verification of your claims.

murphaph

I'm sure prices will soon go up, or go down, or stay the same.

El_Dangeroso

murphaph wrote: »

I'm sure prices will soon go up, or go down, or stay the same.

This guy knows what's up. Or down. Or about the same.

El_Dangeroso

gaius c wrote: »

Petrol station down the road from me in Dublin put their prices up by 2c a litre yesterday. I think I'll pop over to the economic forum and tell them there's a petrol price spike in "certain areas" of Dublin, extrapolate this into "something that sounds ominous" and wait to be laughed out of town.

See how useless your logic is for looking at trends over time?

Also, you didn't give examples. You referred to house that according to you, backup your argument AKA an anecdote that might have come from your imagination. An example would have been a link or some independent verification of your claims.

But your data do not refute the point either, so it's just as much of an opinion.

I think what ever about prices, anyone who is looking in Galway city at the moment will complain of serious lack of choice in homes for sale.

bidiots

gaius c wrote: »

Petrol station down the road from me in Dublin put their prices up by 2c a litre yesterday. I think I'll pop over to the economic forum and tell them there's a petrol price spike in "certain areas" of Dublin, extrapolate this into "something that sounds ominous" and wait to be laughed out of town.

See how useless your logic is for looking at trends over time?

Also, you didn't give examples. You referred to house that according to you, backup your argument AKA an anecdote that might have come from your imagination. An example would have been a link or some independent verification of your claims.

Ok, I see now, you want an argument. I gave an opinion, you refuted the opinion with a 'useless' diagram. I pointed this out to you and seemed to irk you. You have no idea what my logic may be, nor could you, yet call it useless.
Then you use an example of a petrol station in Dublin, and just like your diagram, has no relevance to what I said.
Hmmm. Something sounds ominous alright.

Idbatterim

Many (if not most) are not buying because they can't afford to. Sales are close to historical lows with half the sales in cash. The market is completely and utterly dysfunctional. It would take very little to send prices one direction or the other in this environment, at present it is supply constraints driving them higher.

The media speak about pent up demand because of the low sales volumes over the past 5/6 years. If there was pent up demand sales volumes would be close to historical highs, not lows. I think they just want the advertising revenue from the bubble back and will do everything in their power to try and achieve it. Remember we had to bail out many of those media organisations as well through debt write offs

I agree with alot cant afford to or dont have the deposit required. I also agree that the market is dysfunctional. How can sale volumes be at historic highs though when supply must be at historic lows? You will also have people who now own, hanging onto property as they are stuck in negative equity or those who were potentially thinking of selling and downsizing, well if property prices are indeed on the up, why sell? unless you have to release the money now? The thing is, there are so many factors that effect the price, nearly the biggest though, that doesnt get mentioned is group think, when everyone though prices were on the up everyone was leapfrogging each other, thus driving prices higher, on the way down it was the same, why buy now when I can get it X percent cheaper next month. The people who could afford to buy and didnt say 1.5-2 years ago now either cant afford to or or sick at missing out at those prices, that they have just decided to keep on renting (like a friend of mine who was a cash buyer). The way I see it is, how many on this forum or in general intend on renting indefinitely, the answer, close to none I would hazard a guess at... The papers etc repeat it enough and whether its fact or fiction, repeat it often enough and people will take it as fact, some will start jumping and whats the alternative? Others and their actions actually dictate what you will pay, possibly even more than the seller...

Let me clarify that I am a renter and cant afford to buy at present (saving for a deposit) but I remember around 2010 - 2011, nice 3 and 4 bed semi detached in churchtown, D.14 on Weston Road etc asking low to mid three hundreds and if I could have bought at the time, I wouldnt have hesitated, I remember thinking this was just stupidly cheap for what you were getting. If I had bought and they went down more in the short term, so be it... They are long term houses with excellent fundamentals...

Villa05

Sales have been at historic lows right through 2010 to 2014.
Not so sure about the group think on the way down most people wanted to buy but were prevented from doing so by access to credit (ancedotal personal experience)
Irish are obsessed with property. Obsession is very dangerous

gaius c

El_Dangeroso wrote: »

But your data do not refute the point either, so it's just as much of an opinion.

I think what ever about prices, anyone who is looking in Galway city at the moment will complain of serious lack of choice in homes for sale.

But that's not what he claimed. He claimed a "bubble" in unspecified areas and after serious questioning, has offhandedly referred to approx 4 houses that may or may not actually be asking prices rather than selling prices. All his "qualifying points" have been added after the PPR graph for Galway was posted.

It's the sort of rigorous approach that would be welcomed on politics.ie

makeorbrake

If folks want real tangible prices, go here right now => http://www.advertiser.ie/galway

Auction being broadcast live.