What is your opinion of the future of property prices?

The Spider

jmayo wrote: »

I think the poster is trying to say Galway is on a par with small cities in the South East of UK in terms of nationwide desirability, not in terms of price.

Or at least that is what I hope he means.
In this case it can be hard to fathom.

I do think Galway, or parts of it, has always been more desirable than say Limerick, Waterford or even Cork.
Also it has had a pretty good FDI history with a fair number of large multinationals siting themselves around the city.
And it always ranks high as a fairly nice place to lvie with lots of facilities.

Bang on, this is what I mean, irregardless of The south of england being the power house of the british economy, some cities are as far from london as galway is from dublin.

Galway is a highly desirable place to live in Ireland, that's why the prices are high, although for the life of me I don't know where you would get the high salaries required in Galway.

Maybe farming or inherited wealth, living where I do my eyes have been opened to the amount of wealth that rural people have, and not a job that involves a computer between them.

makeorbrake

The Spider wrote: »

Bang on, this is what I mean, irregardless of The south of england being the power house of the british economy, some cities are as far from london as galway is from dublin.

Not the same thing. People are prepared to commute into central london from as far away as the isle of wight - but they have good quality jobs to go to - with London £ weighted salaries.

The Spider wrote: »

Galway is a highly desirable place to live in Ireland, that's why the prices are high, although for the life of me I don't know where you would get the high salaries required in Galway.

I agree that this is the perception - and that was the basis of my point. Look at many european cities (of similar size) and their property prices. At the end of the day, people are prepared to pay whatever they are prepared to pay - but I opt out of the Galway City market as it stands right now.

Potatoeman

Idbatterim wrote: »

I agree with alot cant afford to or dont have the deposit required. I also agree that the market is dysfunctional. How can sale volumes be at historic highs though when supply must be at historic lows? You will also have people who now own, hanging onto property as they are stuck in negative equity or those who were potentially thinking of selling and downsizing, well if property prices are indeed on the up, why sell? unless you have to release the money now? The thing is, there are so many factors that effect the price, nearly the biggest though, that doesnt get mentioned is group think, when everyone though prices were on the up everyone was leapfrogging each other, thus driving prices higher, on the way down it was the same, why buy now when I can get it X percent cheaper next month. The people who could afford to buy and didnt say 1.5-2 years ago now either cant afford to or or sick at missing out at those prices, that they have just decided to keep on renting (like a friend of mine who was a cash buyer). The way I see it is, how many on this forum or in general intend on renting indefinitely, the answer, close to none I would hazard a guess at... The papers etc repeat it enough and whether its fact or fiction, repeat it often enough and people will take it as fact, some will start jumping and whats the alternative? Others and their actions actually dictate what you will pay, possibly even more than the seller...

Let me clarify that I am a renter and cant afford to buy at present (saving for a deposit) but I remember around 2010 - 2011, nice 3 and 4 bed semi detached in churchtown, D.14 on Weston Road etc asking low to mid three hundreds and if I could have bought at the time, I wouldnt have hesitated, I remember thinking this was just stupidly cheap for what you were getting. If I had bought and they went down more in the short term, so be it... They are long term houses with excellent fundamentals...

Great value from peak but very expensive compared to ten years before.

bidiots

gaius c wrote: »

All his "qualifying points" have been added after the PPR graph for Galway was posted.

What has that graph got to do with what I said? What "qualifying points" have you offered to discount my opinion?

mickman

Its quite simple

As the richest investor in the world says "buy when others are fearful"

Are others fearful at this moment ? Absolutely not, house prices are being talked about and discussed all the time on the news and in forums. Everyone is saying "the bottom is in" and "prices can ONLY go up from here"

People are now getting greedy again - let them at it and wait for the inevitable decline which will happen.

Its likely this is just a mini spike in a down market

murphaph

mickman wrote: »

Its quite simple

As the richest investor in the world says "buy when others are fearful"

Are others fearful at this moment ? Absolutely not, house prices are being talked about and discussed all the time on the news and in forums. Everyone is saying "the bottom is in" and "prices can ONLY go up from here"

People are now getting greedy again - let them at it and wait for the inevitable decline which will happen.

Its likely this is just a mini spike in a down market

I though you were in the market for a 300k mortgage at the moment...

Link

El_Dangeroso

gaius c wrote: »

But that's not what he claimed. He claimed a "bubble" in unspecified areas and after serious questioning, has offhandedly referred to approx 4 houses that may or may not actually be asking prices rather than selling prices. All his "qualifying points" have been added after the PPR graph for Galway was posted.

It's the sort of rigorous approach that would be welcomed on politics.ie

I'm not really sure what your point is exactly, this is a discussion forum, not the ultimate quest for truth. People's experiences of the market ARE valid data, just not the most generalisable data.

If you wanted to be rigourous, you could go back through the data for galway that you posted, separate out city and county and actually settle the argument quite quickly.

But I doubt either of us could be bothered to do that, opinions and experiences provide a nicer narrative to an issue sometimes and I for one like hearing them.

The Spider

Potatoeman wrote: »

Great value from peak but very expensive compared to ten years before.

And what was the average salary then? it's all relative.

makeorbrake

The Spider wrote: »

And what was the average salary then? it's all relative.

Would be interesting to check that. I don't know the answer but it wouldn't surprise me if the amounts banks were prepared to finance were within 3x earnings...

Anyone got that data?

JohnFalstaff

makeorbrake wrote: »

If folks want real tangible prices, go here right now => http://www.advertiser.ie/galway

Auction being broadcast live.

First house opened at 200K... After a bit of a frenzy it sold at 355K!!

53 Grattan Park, Salthill - needs to be completely gutted.

Evidence of a Galway bubble??

bidiots

JohnFalstaff wrote: »

First house opened at 200K... After a bit of a frenzy it sold at 355K!!

53 Grattan Park, Salthill - needs to be completely gutted.

Evidence of a Galway bubble??

JohnFalstaff

Second lot opened at 200K

1200ft Semi on college road... needs to be modernised etc

Sold for 365K!

Although they do tend to frontload the more desirable properties...

GavMan

mickman wrote: »

Its quite simple

As the richest investor in the world says "buy when others are fearful"

Are others fearful at this moment ? Absolutely not, house prices are being talked about and discussed all the time on the news and in forums. Everyone is saying "the bottom is in" and "prices can ONLY go up from here"

People are now getting greedy again - let them at it and wait for the inevitable decline which will happen.

Its likely this is just a mini spike in a down market

This is only relevant if you view your purchase as an investment. Which many, like myself, don't.

Some people can't simply sit around and wait for a crash that may or may not come and if it does, could take years to arrive

Idbatterim

Its quite simple

As the richest investor in the world says "buy when others are fearful"

Are others fearful at this moment ? Absolutely not, house prices are being talked about and discussed all the time on the news and in forums. Everyone is saying "the bottom is in" and "prices can ONLY go up from here"

People are now getting greedy again - let them at it and wait for the inevitable decline which will happen.

Its likely this is just a mini spike in a down market

yeah pretty much a far shorter version of what I wanted to put across. I have put this up before, but just to reiterate the above, I will post it again

from the documentary "whos buying ireland" on rte earlier. neville isdell, former chairman and ceo of coca cola

"the early adapters, the one's in the minority, have made a big mistake or they do very very well and in my view, its the minority who are normally right, because when the majority believe something, its already happened. he ended up buying the chq in the docklands.

This is only relevant if you view your purchase as an investment. Which many, like myself, don't.

Some people can't simply sit around and wait for a crash that may or may not come and if it does, could take years to arrive

yeah, its a big IF and how much rent will you have paid in the mean time? also I wouldnt go expecting a catastrophic collapse of 50% etc again, given the perfect storm, which is unlikely to be repeated in the short to medium term IMO, I wont say ever...

JohnFalstaff

OK, a 2 bed apartment in Salthill just sold for 492K!! :eek:

Now it's a very nice apartment in a very desirable location but AMV was 250K!

This is officially getting towards bubble territory.

Idbatterim

OK, a 2 bed apartment in Salthill just sold for 492K!!

2 bed in salthill for e492k?! is it some ridiculous penthouse or something or a bog standard apartment, there is a big difference!!!

JohnFalstaff

Idbatterim wrote: »

2 bed in salthill for e492k?! is it some ridiculous penthouse or something or a bog standard apartment, there is a big difference!!!

Only on the first floor and the interior doesn't look particularly special from the pics, but it's in a terrific location:

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-dun-na-carraige-salthill-galway-city/2779252

El_Dangeroso

Idbatterim wrote: »

2 bed in salthill for e492k?! is it some ridiculous penthouse or something or a bog standard apartment, there is a big difference!!!

Nothing special:

http://www.daft.ie/sales/6-dun-na-carraige-salthill-galway/938030/

Far from town, but having been to previous auctions in Galway, the mere mention of Salthill means people lose the run of themselves. Don't get the appeal myself, but I guess I'm in the minority.

El_Dangeroso

JohnFalstaff wrote: »

Only on the first floor and the interior doesn't look particularly special from the pics, but it's in a terrific location:

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-dun-na-carraige-salthill-galway-city/2779252

I wouldn't call the location terrific, there's 2 beds of similar size behind the aquarium for 160K, you'd find it hard to justify an additional 332K for proximity to an average golf club!

jmayo

El_Dangeroso wrote: »

I wouldn't call the location terrific, there's 2 beds of similar size behind the aquarium for 160K, you'd find it hard to justify an additional 332K for proximity to an average golf club!

ah now be fair you are nearer to the Spinnaker, have a better view of the golfcourse being lashed by one of those bad storms and when it isn't raining bad you can see across to Clare.
surely that is worth the 332k extra.

Villa05

GavMan wrote: »

This is only relevant if you view your purchase as an investment. Which many, like myself, don't.

Some people can't simply sit around and wait for a crash that may or may not come and if it does, could take years to arrive

Unfortunately that's the thinking that has ruined so many families up and down the country.

We badly need financial education in our classrooms as has been recently introduced in the UK

1/2 a mill for a 2 bed apartment in Galway. Is there anybody left on this forum who believes this is not a bubble

Anyone care have a prediction on when we will see "This time its different" on this forum. All the arguments justifying the higher prices are the same ones used in the early noughties.

bidiots

Villa05 wrote: »

1/2 a mill for a 2 bed apartment in Galway. Is there anybody left on this forum who believes this is not a bubble.

This guy probably

gaius c wrote: »

Sorry but you don't quite seem to get the hang of this internet debate lark. You make an assertion so YOU have to stand by it and prove it, not anybody else.

4 houses where prices are going up at a single point in time and you're extrapolating from this? Are you being serious?

gaius c wrote: »

Petrol station down the road from me in Dublin put their prices up by 2c a litre yesterday. I think I'll pop over to the economic forum and tell them there's a petrol price spike in "certain areas" of Dublin, extrapolate this into "something that sounds ominous" and wait to be laughed out of town.

See how useless your logic is for looking at trends over time?
.

makeorbrake

El_Dangeroso wrote: »

the mere mention of Salthill means people lose the run of themselves. Don't get the appeal myself, but I guess I'm in the minority.

Finally someone with a sane view! I've held this opinion for a long time. Salthill (and the city generally) is a desireable place to live - but when it comes to putting a price on that, I'm at odds with all those currently buying and those who have bought in the last 12 months.

natali1982

bmwguy wrote: »

I can access Dublin city centre in 30 minutes by a choice of 2 train stations and 3 dublin bus routes. Its not even in county Dublin. We have commuter towns here too, Ireland isnt all bad!

Where is that?

horsesfc88

Looking to buy a 2 bed house/duplex in Dublin, but the prices are a joke

Is there any truth in some rule that ends this year that will limit cash buyers or something like that??

People are telling me to wait till next year to buy but i'm not sure

Villa05

horsesfc88 wrote: »

Looking to buy a 2 bed house/duplex in Dublin, but the prices are a joke

Is there any truth in some rule that ends this year that will limit cash buyers or something like that??

People are telling me to wait till next year to buy but i'm not sure

Cash buyers are most probably investors

Currently there is a capital gains tax exemption for properties purchased and held for 7 years. This exemption will be gone in the next budget

Another factor is that current prices are too high to justify investing - Weak return on investment

horsesfc88

Villa05 wrote: »

Cash buyers are most probably investors

Currently there is a capital gains tax exemption for properties purchased and held for 7 years. This exemption will be gone in the next budget

Another factor is that current prices are too high to justify investing - Weak return on investment

Thanks for the response

So as in January of next year the exemption will be gone?

Do you really think the difference will be felt in the market?

Villa05

horsesfc88 wrote: »

Thanks for the response

So as in January of next year the exemption will be gone?

Do you really think the difference will be felt in the market?

In Dublin, Yes,

amdublin

El_Dangeroso wrote: »

Nothing special:

http://www.daft.ie/sales/6-dun-na-carraige-salthill-galway/938030/

Far from town, but having been to previous auctions in Galway, the mere mention of Salthill means people lose the run of themselves. Don't get the appeal myself, but I guess I'm in the minority.

I don't care if that's in salthill or ballsbridge in dub, that's one hicksville mchickey kitchen and bathroom tilling that I'm going to have spend €15k ripping out and redoing.

bidiots

For me, Its the fact that it's electric heating, tiny kitchen and lack of utility room.... for almost 1/2 a million, oh dear.