Spring lamb prices

wrangler

Green farmer wrote: »

Maybe, but supermarket demand is through the roof and nz only supplying half their quota to the eu

January is always tough, too much put on the credit card at Christmas, beef and lamb would be the first cutback as regards food any way

Albert Johnson

wrangler wrote: »

January is always tough, too much put on the credit card at Christmas, beef and lamb would be the first cutback as regards food any way

I've always found that the dearer stock get the more reluctant lads are to sell them and there's always talk of more money to be got next week. Conversely in a falling trade the same men can't get them sold quick enough and you'd be told they weren't worth having.

Manorhamilton had a very big sheep sale Wednesday night and prices would be back a bit on previous weeks but still very strong compared to other year's. I commented that if there was another 20c pull on quotes that the yard wouldn't hold all the lambs for next week. A reduction in quotes always flushes out more stock than a rise. It's amazing all the men that arrived with 10 or 20 of the last lambs they were feeding but would have held for another few weeks if the trade kept improving. The same men would hold them until Paddy's day if they thought they'd get another few euro.

Green farmer

Albert Johnson wrote: »

It's amazing all the men that arrived with 10 or 20 of the last lambs they were feeding but would have held for another few weeks if the trade kept improving. The same men would hold them until Paddy's day if they thought they'd get another few euro.

Is that not a snap shot in itself of what numbers of lambs are around if lads are down to the last of the loose ends ?

Albert Johnson

Green farmer wrote: »

Is that not a snap shot in itself of what numbers of lambs are around if lads are down to the last of the loose ends ?

To a point your correct but why weren't those lambs traded prior to this? If the priced had rose or even been maintained for another week those same lambs would still be kept in hopes that they'd get a bigger lift next week. If the hogget quote hit €8 I guarantee there'd be any number of lambs left in sheds waiting for €8.50. It's always been proven that a few weeks of a rise followed by a sudden drop will flush out the stockpile quicker and easier than a sustained period of price increase.

Fleshed lambs are probably in short supply atm because it's almost impossible to finish large numbers at this time of the year without big input cost. Longer keep stores were very dear all autumn and it was a brave man that bought dear lambs to put into a shed and feed expensive meal with the intention of slaughtering around now. This year his gamble seems to be paying off but if he's done similar in previous year's he's seen both sides of it. I don't see any physical issues with supply that should lead to much of a decrease in quotes for a another few weeks at least. However there's more factors at play and seeing as the recent tactic of paying more hasn't brought about an increase in supply then maybe there going to use the stick as opposed to the carrot for awhile.

Green farmer

Well worded view on the state of play there Albert. Your views sum me up. Sold most last autumn with a small few knocking around. Not pushed either way whenever they go.

Albert Johnson

Green farmer wrote: »

Well worded view on the state of play there Albert. Your views sum me up. Sold most last autumn with a small few knocking around. Not pushed either way whenever they go.

In simple terms I can't see how lambs would be especially plentiful atm and that alone should mean that prices remain high. However supply is only one of the factors at play and this can lead to a deviation from what would seem the initial obvious outcome

I've always reckoned that a workable number of longer keep stores left to there own devices until late spring should earn some level of profit most year's. Yes that's an awful lot of assumptions but it's my belief. However it's not without it's pitfalls and due to a number of other factors I've never succeeded in accomplishing it. Most of my ground isn't suited too over wintering sheep and the bit of early grass growth the stores would require is commandeered by the better half's early lamber's (don't mention the war). The biggest barrier to sheep farming here and perhaps something that I should preface all posts in this subforum with is that I'm wholeheartedly a cattle man and the white wooly lad's have always been a love/hate affair.

Duke92

Albert Johnson wrote: »

I've always found that the dearer stock get the more reluctant lads are to sell them and there's always talk of more money to be got next week. Conversely in a falling trade the same men can't get them sold quick enough and you'd be told they weren't worth having.

Manorhamilton had a very big sheep sale Wednesday night and prices would be back a bit on previous weeks but still very strong compared to other year's. I commented that if there was another 20c pull on quotes that the yard wouldn't hold all the lambs for next week. A reduction in quotes always flushes out more stock than a rise. It's amazing all the men that arrived with 10 or 20 of the last lambs they were feeding but would have held for another few weeks if the trade kept improving. The same men would hold them until Paddy's day if they thought they'd get another few euro.

Wouldn’t really agree neighbour of mine let of all his lambs last week 80 lamb lightest was 43kg came into 134 after stoppages
He reckoned he’d want 40 cents to cover the meal on them light lambs

Albert Johnson

Duke92 wrote: »

Wouldn’t really agree neighbour of mine let of all his lambs last week 80 lamb lightest was 43kg came into 134 after stoppages
He reckoned he’d want 40 cents to cover the meal on them light lambs

I'm afraid I don't understand the meaning behind that post? I welcome all viewpoints and my opinions aren't sacrosanct.

Duke92

Albert Johnson wrote: »

I'm afraid I don't understand the meaning behind that post? I welcome all viewpoints and my opinions aren't sacrosanct.

What don’t you understand
Let them off to factory

Green farmer

Duke92 wrote: »

He reckoned he’d want 40 cents to cover the meal on them light lambs

I dont follow you on that bit either.

Kevhog1988

Green farmer wrote: »

I dont follow you on that bit either.

Was it 40c more per kg?. If so he must of put some grub into them.

Green farmer

Kevhog1988 wrote: »

Was it 40c more per kg?. If so he must of put some grub into them.

Youd be surprised how they can motor through meal when they get going

Albert Johnson

Duke92 wrote: »

What don’t you understand
Let them off to factory

I guessed that he'd killed the lambs but I don't understand the bit about needing 40c to cover the meal?

As for the price those weights of lambs were making that money in the marts locally up until the start of the week. A lot of lad's that would usually have killed there lambs were showing them live the last few weeks and getting the same prices with no haulage or stoppages apart from commission. A man that has a lorry and drag on the road doing factory runs a few times a week was telling us the number of lambs he'd usually haul were noticeably reduced recently as they were going to the marts instead. There were big entries of fat lambs in the sales and they were being bought by agents or regular weekly supplier's and going for direct slaughter. With the live trade you have the same price for the bunch and you know what business you've done straight away.

Green farmer

Think the online bidding has improved selling at marts and means you dont have to hang around to be in the sellers box. You get the best price on offer on the day and its either a yes or no answer.

Kevhog1988

Green farmer wrote: »

Youd be surprised how they can motor through meal when they get going

Still though. If you are getting over 5.50 per kg at 23kg there has to be a decent margin in a lamb. In my opinion he's right about the holding out though. If your turning a few quid let them on rather than waiting for the price to rise.

Duke92

Albert Johnson wrote: »

I guessed that he'd killed the lambs but I don't understand the bit about needing 40c to cover the meal?

As for the price those weights of lambs were making that money in the marts locally up until the start of the week. A lot of lad's that would usually have killed there lambs were showing them live the last few weeks and getting the same prices with no haulage or stoppages apart from commission. A man that has a lorry and drag on the road doing factory runs a few times a week was telling us the number of lambs he'd usually haul were noticeably reduced recently as they were going to the marts instead. There were big entries of fat lambs in the sales and they were being bought by agents or regular weekly supplier's and going for direct slaughter. With the live trade you have the same price for the bunch and you know what business you've done straight away.

He reckoned he’d want the lambs to be making 40 cent per kg more to cover the feeding that went into them so he let the small ones of to factory to

Albert Johnson

Duke92 wrote: »

He reckoned he’d want the lambs to be making 40 cent per kg more to cover the feeding that went into them so he let the small ones of to factory to

He must have seriously high feed costs if he reckoned that he still needed an additional 40c over what must be record price's for recent year's. What price was the lamb quote this time 12 month's? Surely he'd have been far better off to have offloaded them as stores last backend or let them run until the growth starts and kill off grass.

Duke92

Albert Johnson wrote: »

He must have seriously high feed costs if he reckoned that he still needed an additional 40c over what must be record price's for recent year's. What price was the lamb quote this time 12 month's? Surely he'd have been far better off to have offloaded them as stores last backend or let them run until the growth starts and kill off grass.

Don’t really matter what it was 12 months ago
He got 6.50 now
His smallest lamb came into 123

Duke92

He was happy anyway

Dickie10

you will always have lambs that never kill 22kg ,small and butty maybe a ewe lambs lamb.

Albert Johnson

Duke92 wrote: »

Don’t really matter what it was 12 months ago
He got 6.50 now
His smallest lamb came into 123

I only asked that because my reading of it was that if €6.50 wasn't fit to clear a profit then what chance would he have had in previous year's. Granted the store price and feed price are higher this year but still if you couldn't make a profit on lambs atm then I don't see how you ever will.

I take it that it was the smallest lambs that dragged down the average. Were they home bred or bought in lambs?

Duke92

Albert Johnson wrote: »

I only asked that because my reading of it was that if €6.50 wasn't fit to clear a profit then what chance would he have had in previous year's. Granted the store price and feed price are higher this year but still if you couldn't make a profit on lambs atm then I don't see how you ever will.

I take it that it was the smallest lambs that dragged down the average. Were they home bred or bought in lambs?

All home breed i think he was happy enough last year to

Robson99

Any update on factory prices for this week?

weatherbyfoxer

Robson99 wrote: »

Any update on factory prices for this week?

625 all in to 23kg

Robson99

weatherbyfoxer wrote: »

625 all in to 23kg

Back a little again so. Think they just trying to flush them out a little. I'd expect them to rise again in a week or 10 days

weatherbyfoxer

Robson99 wrote: »

Back a little again so. Think they just trying to flush them out a little. I'd expect them to rise again in a week or 10 days

there getting plenty anyway,larage packed in kildare last week most nights

kk.man

Going by reports from UK Marts today lambs are in short supply and agents in a frenzy to get what's there.

paddysdream

6:30 inc. Qa for tomorrow

memorystick

paddysdream wrote: »

6:30 inc. Qa for tomorrow

They’ll be 6.60 in 3 weeks. A quarter of all EU sheep are/were in the UK.

Taking back their borders they were told.

Dickie10

yeah they will be mad in a few weeks time, ramadan and easter early , this is purely to flush them out in hope of getting orders filled. The lambs are not there though. this will get rid of a lot of lambs from ireland. UK lamb crop down a lot in recent years last spring, flocks were culled in lots of big estates and many sheep farmers cut back ewe numbers with Brexit on horizon, there will be even less lamns hitting gound in UK this spring.