Wind farms - ugly truths

fclauson

So back to my OP and costs
At the mo 53% of Ireland energy is coming from renewable -is this a good thing

on the positive
Lower emissions
less fuel imports

on the negative
we are paying €80/Mw rather than €35ish which equates to at 4500Mwh demand and 2300Mwh from wind €260K vs €157K/hr if it came from gas - i.e. roughly €100K more per hour
we have doubled up our infrastructure to achieve this
most of the revenue to wind farms is going abroad and outside of the Irish tax base
even in high winds residents near wind farms (which are typically very rural) are being seriously acoustically impacted

and we are still importing via the inter connector

My view still stands as it did in post 1 that wind is a poor investment vs the many other ways of reducing energy demand and increasing energy efficiencies

djpbarry

Birdnuts wrote: »

France has added a serious amount of wind/solar during that time as anyone who has visited the place in recent years can attest too.

The overwhelming majority of French electricity is generated by nuclear and hydro, yet prices are climbing, just like they are in virtually every other European country, regardless of how many wind turbines have been installed.

Birdnuts wrote: »

I find it amazing your conflating welfare cuts affecting pensioners to wind developers being out of pocket.

I find it amazing that you’re unaware of the Tories making massive spending cuts across the board.

djpbarry

fclauson wrote: »

we are paying €80/Mw rather than €35ish which equates to at 4500Mwh demand and 2300Mwh from wind €260K vs €157K/hr if it came from gas - i.e. roughly €100K more per hour

What are you basing these figures on?

L

fclauson wrote: »

So back to my OP and costs
we are paying €80/Mw rather than €35ish which equates to at 4500Mwh demand and 2300Mwh from wind €260K vs €157K/hr if it came from gas - i.e. roughly €100K more per hour

I'm not sure about the prices here (not saying they're wrong - I just am not sure where they're coming from - is it including some measure of associated transmission cost or something?).

Using REFIT for wind (the guaranteed price wind gets) would give €69.5-72 depending on size of farm. Split the difference and call it €71/MWh. 2300MWh@€71= 163k.

For the rest, it gets a bit more complicated. The Irish power market uses the marginal unit to set the price (the last unit to be switched on sets how much everyone gets paid - which means since generators have to bid in their real cost to generate power, the amount of profit they make is proportional to how much more efficient they are than the last necessary generator at a given time). Wind bids in zero into this market, which means that it pushes down the marginal system price (and so reduces the amount of money that has to be paid for the rest of the generation on the system).

So, using the other numbers from your example, you either have 2300*€71+2200*€35 (a fairly reasonable price for coal without carbon pricing or a bit low for high efficiency gas plant) or 4500*X. Solving that, it looks like so long as you'd have to have a marginal unit @ €53.5 (I'd say this is about where midmerit gas units would sit) without wind, wind is roughly cost neutral.

fclauson wrote: »

we have doubled up our infrastructure to achieve this

I'm not sure we have. We now have different power plant for different purposes as opposed to "one size fits all needs" setups. Our power system would look different without wind - but I'm not convinced it'd be half the investment cost.

fclauson wrote: »

most of the revenue to wind farms is going abroad and outside of the Irish tax base

No argument here - it's largely the same with the conventional plant though outside what's owned by ESB. Most of them are owned by non-Irish companies. I'd like to see more community ownership myself to keep the money here.

fclauson wrote: »

even in high winds residents near wind farms (which are typically very rural) are being seriously acoustically impacted

I don't know enough about this one to comment really. I'm curious to learn more about it though if you've got any good links on the subject?

fclauson wrote: »

and we are still importing via the inter connector

Well, it's more balanced import/export these days I think since GB introduced a carbon price floor. Either way, it's not a bad thing to see the IC being used. It means we're lowering Irish and GB prices by being able to have a more efficient dispatch. If it wasn't importing or exporting, then it'd be a pointless waste of money to have it.

A good acid test on it is what'd happen if it was unavailable - we wouldn't have blackouts but we would have higher prices as GB and Ireland's prices would decouple.

fclauson wrote: »

My view still stands as it did in post 1 that wind is a poor investment vs the many other ways of reducing energy demand and increasing energy efficiencies

I'm not sure - I suspect wind is broadly somewhere around cost neutral and should be cost negative in the longterm (when REFIT ends, the capital costs should be mainly paid off meaning the price wind needs to stay profitable given maintenance/replacement costs should be much lower).

That said, I do think we missed a trick by punting all our 2020 targets into electricity as opposed to trying to upgrade old housing stock to be more energy efficient and the like. Part of that though is the mismatch between the design of those EU targets and the reality on the ground in Ireland (decreasing energy use for heating wouldn't qualify for a percentage target while a low population density means we've trouble actually having any heating techs that'd qualify).

Macha

To point out the obvious - practically all the money from coal and gas goes outside Ireland. We spent on average E6 billion a year importing fossil fuels.

handlemaster

Should ireland just build a nuclear plant and forget about the wind projects altogether .

fclauson

Macha wrote: »

To point out the obvious - practically all the money from coal and gas goes outside Ireland. We spent on average E6 billion a year importing fossil fuels.

True - my point was that the argument that wind was good as it reduced external cash flow has to be countered by revenue being exported abroad to investors overseas

Macha

fclauson wrote: »

True - my point was that the argument that wind was good as it reduced external cash flow has to be countered by revenue being exported abroad to investors overseas

Do you have any figures on it? What percentage of revenue?

fclauson

Macha wrote: »

Do you have any figures on it? What percentage of revenue?

Unfortunately nothing impirical but if you look at wind farm ownership there are a lot by foreign investors

L

handlemaster wrote: »

Should ireland just build a nuclear plant and forget about the wind projects altogether .

It's pretty difficult to get good information on their technical characteristics online. From memory, I think there's issues around getting them at a small enough size with a low enough minimum generation to suit the size of the Irish system.

Basically since the largest single power source on the power system will set the amount of spinning reserve required, getting a single big inflexible generator could force a lot more spinning reserve to be needed by the system which would force a lot more part loading of generators.

Macha

fclauson wrote: »

Unfortunately nothing impirical but if you look at wind farm ownership there are a lot by foreign investors

Any evidence on that?

fclauson

Macha wrote: »

Any evidence on that?

Yes - the four local wind farms near me are either owned by Germans or by Belgiums. SSE Airtricity is non Irish - the list goes on

Macha

fclauson wrote: »

Yes - the four local wind farms near me are either owned by Germans or by Belgiums. SSE Airtricity is non Irish - the list goes on

Yes but where does the revenue go and how much goes back into the local economy? As I suggested before, you also have to compare with the alternative - e.g. a gas plant.

I'm all for community renewables projects. As an aside - ever heard of a community gas plant? Thought not.

fclauson

Macha wrote: »

Yes but where does the revenue go and how much goes back into the local economy? As I suggested before, you also have to compare with the alternative - e.g. a gas plant.

I'm all for community renewables projects. As an aside - ever heard of a community gas plant? Thought not.

Community payments locally here are low or non existanct - few "sweeteners" when the projects where built

Why would the cash go back into the economy ?
There is a small maintenance outfit locally which I believe has 3 vans (so there for probably 6 to 10 people) supporting something like 100+ turbines

Community gas plant - like it

fclauson

L some great input - thanks

L wrote: »

I'm not sure about the prices here (not saying they're wrong - I just am not sure where they're coming from - is it including some measure of associated transmission cost or something?).

Using REFIT for wind (the guaranteed price wind gets) would give €69.5-72 depending on size of farm. Split the difference and call it €71/MWh. 2300MWh@€71= 163k.

you have to add the balancing payment of €9.90 or €10.48 as per the bottom of the page on your link - this brings it up to €80

For the rest, it gets a bit more complicated. The Irish power market uses the marginal unit to set the price (the last unit to be switched on sets how much everyone gets paid - which means since generators have to bid in their real cost to generate power, the amount of profit they make is proportional to how much more efficient they are than the last necessary generator at a given time). Wind bids in zero into this market, which means that it pushes down the marginal system price (and so reduces the amount of money that has to be paid for the rest of the generation on the system).

So, using the other numbers from your example, you either have 2300*€71+2200*€35 (a fairly reasonable price for coal without carbon pricing or a bit low for high efficiency gas plant) or 4500*X. Solving that, it looks like so long as you'd have to have a marginal unit @ €53.5 (I'd say this is about where midmerit gas units would sit) without wind, wind is roughly cost neutral.

I was using market price from http://smartgriddashboard.eirgrid.com/ when I took the figures this morning - so for the time of day I pick I think I had the right numbers

I'm not sure we have. We now have different power plant for different purposes as opposed to "one size fits all needs" setups. Our power system would look different without wind - but I'm not convinced it'd be half the investment cost.

No argument here - it's largely the same with the conventional plant though outside what's owned by ESB. Most of them are owned by non-Irish companies. I'd like to see more community ownership myself to keep the money here.

I don't know enough about this one to comment really. I'm curious to learn more about it though if you've got any good links on the subject?

I will not pollute this thread with the noise argument - but I am aware of at least 15 wind farms not meeting their noise compliance limits and which the local LA is doing nothing - leaving local residents to take their own PDA 2000 section 160 (and €50K for their efforts)

We should have a wind farm Zar who acts as an enforcer and mediator

Well, it's more balanced import/export these days I think since GB introduced a carbon price floor. Either way, it's not a bad thing to see the IC being used. It means we're lowering Irish and GB prices by being able to have a more efficient dispatch. If it wasn't importing or exporting, then it'd be a pointless waste of money to have it.

A good acid test on it is what'd happen if it was unavailable - we wouldn't have blackouts but we would have higher prices as GB and Ireland's prices would decouple.

I'm not sure - I suspect wind is broadly somewhere around cost neutral and should be cost negative in the longterm (when REFIT ends, the capital costs should be mainly paid off meaning the price wind needs to stay profitable given maintenance/replacement costs should be much lower).

That said, I do think we missed a trick by punting all our 2020 targets into electricity as opposed to trying to upgrade old housing stock to be more energy efficient and the like. Part of that though is the mismatch between the design of those EU targets and the reality on the ground in Ireland (decreasing energy use for heating wouldn't qualify for a percentage target while a low population density means we've trouble actually having any heating techs that'd qualify).

Macha

fclauson wrote: »

Community payments locally here are low or non existanct - few "sweeteners" when the projects where built

Indeed, there are many models of community renewables projects. Ireland isn't exactly a shining light of best practice. That doesn't mean we can't do better.

fclauson wrote: »

Why would the cash go back into the economy ?
There is a small maintenance outfit locally which I believe has 3 vans (so there for probably 6 to 10 people) supporting something like 100+ turbines

I'm still looking for some hard evidence (ie beyond anecdotal) that most of the money invested in Irish wind turbines goes abroad. And a decent comparison with alternative fuels like a gas plant.

fclauson wrote: »

Community gas plant - like it

Now, biogas I could get behind..

Capt'n Midnight

Birdnuts wrote: »

An energy system that has to pay big industrial users to shut down production is hardly one to inspire confidence.

It's cheaper than building power stations that are only used rarely. And for industrial users with small profit margins it can be more profitable than production. And reducing demand doesn't necessarily mean stopping production.

"Steelmakers argue the industry in the UK is faced with far higher energy costs than it can cope with and that the compensation packages promised in the March budget haven’t come soon enough.

IIRC Steel industry, apart from niche specialised steels, in the UK has been on it's knees since the 1970's with foreign competition, militant unions , Thatcherism and underinvestment , etc. etc. As a result of that and automation Jobs have fallen from 197,000 to under 20,00.

Capt'n Midnight

handlemaster wrote: »

Should ireland just build a nuclear plant and forget about the wind projects altogether .

As pointed out above it would need a lot of spinning reserve. Current and projected nuclear reactors are around 1.2 - 1.6 GW which isn't much above our summer night valley. In addition you also need large inertia generators near the main cities to provide frequency stability, so for much of the time it would be a white elephant.

Also the UK who have a lot more experience with nuclear than we do and a much bigger market are still having to promise to pay ridiculous rates for future nuclear.

Birdnuts

Macha wrote: »

To point out the obvious - practically all the money from coal and gas goes outside Ireland. We spent on average E6 billion a year importing fossil fuels.

And wind has made very little difference to that spend. Plus many windfarms in this country are owned my foreign vulture funds.

Birdnuts

djpbarry wrote: »

The overwhelming majority of French electricity is generated by nuclear and hydro, yet prices are climbing, just like they are in virtually every other European country, regardless of how many wind turbines have been installed.
.

Frances retail power prices are still half of Germany's as the latter is way ahead in terms of wind and solar capacity. My point is that France has embarked on a massive wind and solar expansion in recent years and its starting to see energy price rises as a result despite falling gas/oil prices. Yet you keep ignoring these facts with your constant/tiresome "wind is cheap" mantra:rolleyes:

Birdnuts

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

IIRC Steel industry, apart from niche specialised steels, in the UK has been on it's knees since the 1970's with foreign competition, militant unions , Thatcherism and underinvestment , etc. etc. As a result of that and automation Jobs have fallen from 197,000 to under 20,000.

Energy is a huge cost in the making of steel. UK's rising energy costs look like being the final nail in the coffin of an industry that is still a major employer in certain parts of the UK as may earlier link showed. But I guess if your not affected by such job losses its easy to dismiss such concerns.

Similar issues in Germany too

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21594336-germanys-new-super-minister-energy-and-economy-has-his-work-cut-out-sunny-windy-costly

"This subsidy is costly. The difference between the market price for electricity and the higher fixed price for renewables is passed on to consumers, whose bills have been rising for years. An average household now pays an extra €260 ($355) a year to subsidise renewables: the total cost of renewable subsidies in 2013 was €16 billion. Costs are also going up for companies, making them less competitive than rivals from America"

fclauson

djpbarry wrote: »

What are you basing these figures on?

from http://smartgriddashboard.eirgrid.com/ and http://www.dcenr.gov.ie/energy/SiteCollectionDocuments/Renewable-Energy/Refit%20Reference%20Prices.pdf

fclauson

something nasty happened - wounder what dropped off line

Macha

Birdnuts wrote: »

And wind has made very little difference to that spend. Plus many windfarms in this country are owned my foreign vulture funds.

That's not what the research shows: Renewable energy has saved Ireland over €1 billion in fossil fuel imports in past five years.

What is a foreign vulture fund and which Irish wind farms are they involved with?

L

fclauson wrote: »

L some great input - thanks

Glad to contribute.

fclauson wrote: »

you have to add the balancing payment of €9.90 or €10.48 as per the bottom of the page on your link - this brings it up to €80

Huh. You're absolutely right - I thought that payment went the way of the dodo when the imbalance prices it was supposed to cover stopped being part of the market but it looks like it hasn't (it really should though). Probably closer to €81/MWh so.

That means the crossover price I was talking about earlier is somewhere around €58.5/MWh - still midmerit gas but probably one of the less efficient units.

fclauson wrote: »

I was using market price from http://smartgriddashboard.eirgrid.com/ when I took the figures this morning - so for the time of day I pick I think I had the right numbers

Yep, they seem reasonable to me at a glance.

For a fuller analysis, it'd be worth seeing can we find roughly equivalent windy/not windy days and running a rough cost comparison between them as there's a couple of peak hours during the day that'll contribute a big chunk of the cost differences. Also worth adjusting for interconnector flows as GB will either be paying for power or getting paid by Ireland.

fclauson wrote: »

I will not pollute this thread with the noise argument - but I am aware of at least 15 wind farms not meeting their noise compliance limits and which the local LA is doing nothing - leaving local residents to take their own PDA 2000 section 160 (and €50K for their efforts)

We should have a wind farm Zar who acts as an enforcer and mediator

That's pretty unfortunate (and illegal). Isn't the EPA supposed to be the noise pollution czar? (Feel free to PM me if we're sidetracking the thread).

Markcheese

fclauson wrote:

Yes - the four local wind farms near me are either owned by Germans or by Belgiums. SSE Airtricity is non Irish - the list goes on

Ownership - or even just tax residence is an issue with every company - the days when everything was owned by the state via ESB are long gone , if wind farms in the future become seriously profitable but export their profits out of the state then expect a very large charge or levy or tax of somesort :-)
Lookthe brits are desperately trying to get the chinese and the french to invest in their nuclear industry... guaranteed income for years ... and Edf are still wavering ...

djpbarry

Birdnuts wrote: »

And wind has made very little difference to that spend.

I demonstrated earlier in the thread that it’s made a fairly substantial difference. Maybe you’d like to counter with some figures of your own?

Birdnuts wrote: »

Frances retail power prices are still half of Germany's as the latter is way ahead in terms of wind and solar capacity. My point is that France has embarked on a massive wind and solar expansion in recent years and its starting to see energy price rises as a result despite falling gas/oil prices. Yet you keep ignoring these facts with your constant/tiresome "wind is cheap" mantra:rolleyes:

You keep ignoring the fact that energy prices are increasing steadily across Europe, when you earlier in the this thread claimed that there was a correlation between electricity prices and roll-out of wind generation.

Slovenia, Slovakia, Malta, Luxembourg and Latvia generate little or no electricity from wind, yet they have all experienced increases in electricity prices over the last ten years.

Birdnuts wrote: »

Energy is a huge cost in the making of steel.

Not really – provision of raw materials represents by far the biggest input cost.

Birdnuts

Macha wrote: »

That's not what the research shows: Renewable energy has saved Ireland over €1 billion in fossil fuel imports in past five years.

What is a foreign vulture fund and which Irish wind farms are they involved with?

I'd take SEAI research on such things with a large dose of salt given there constant promotion of wind energy over the alternatives and ongoing failure to do a proper CBA on said system. The link below higlights some the issues concerned with SEAI "research"

http://irishenergyblog.blogspot.ie/2014/12/seais-quantifying-savings-from.html

plus the price of retail energy in Ireland continued to spiral during that time - so if such a large amount of money was saved, the question arises as to where the savings went and who benefitted??. Any time I've heard Motherway or the CER being questioned on this in the media, they have routinely failed to account for these supposed "savings".

PS: On the subject of foreign owned wind farms. Foreign Hedge funds and companies play a big role in the Irish wind farm scene with wind developers like Element power getting permission for projects and then quickly flipping them for a quick profit

http://www.elpower.com/media/news/element-power-closes-sale-45mw-irish-wind-farms-blackrock

http://www.avondhupress.ie/20140319/news/ballyduff-windfarm-sold-by-element-power-S60889.html

https://www.thetrustedinsight.com/investment-news/energy-fund-buys-wind-farm-in-ireland-for-173m-euros-20141204815/

Birdnuts

djpbarry wrote: »

I demonstrated earlier in the thread that it’s made a fairly substantial difference. Maybe you’d like to counter with some figures of your own?
.

If it made such a substantial difference - then account for the fact that Irish retail energy prices rose sharply in that time??. And yet you also continue to claim that wind energy is cheap. You have provided no credible answer to any of these questions in this thread.

Birdnuts

djpbarry wrote: »

You keep ignoring the fact that energy prices are increasing steadily across Europe, when you earlier in the this thread claimed that there was a correlation between electricity prices and roll-out of wind generation.

Well that's just not true now is it??

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_pricing#/media/File:Electricity-prices-europe.jpg

and that table also highlights that your constant denial that there is no link between the amount of installed wind/solar and energy prices, is laughable at this stage as anyone can see from the Countries heading up that retail prices league.



Plus interesting article here on the reality of wind/solar across the EU

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/07/31/european-renewable-energy-performance-for-2014-fall-far-short-of-claims/


and now even Denmark has had enough

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/10/09/green-reverse-denmark-abandons-climate-change-targets-scraps-electric-car-subsidies/


"Denmark’s move marks its latest retreat from measures that had once put the Scandinavian country at the forefront of policies designed to promote renewable energy. The three-month-old centre-right Liberal government led by Lars Løkke Rasmussen has already said it is abandoning ambitious CO2 emissions targets and dropping plans to become fossil-fuel free by 2050.
Denmark’s government has also flagged a pull back from decommissioning coal-fired power stations. That policy shift was revealed on Sept. 2, the same day U.S. President Barack Obama made a global appeal for urgent action to fight climate change.
Mr. Frederiksen argues that tough decisions need to be made against the backdrop of a widening budget deficit and subsidising green power projects is no longer financially viable".

Macha

Please stop using retail prices as evidence of anything. They are made up of so many components and need so much explanation, they're practicaly useless in understanding any one part of the energy system

fclauson

interesting when there is too much wind and it get shut down what happens to the wholesale price

djpbarry

Birdnuts wrote: »

If it made such a substantial difference - then account for the fact that Irish retail energy prices rose sharply in that time??.

Why do you insist on using retail prices as an indicator of absolutely everything?

Birdnuts wrote: »

And yet you also continue to claim that wind energy is cheap. You have provided no credible answer to any of these questions in this thread.

I presume by “credible answer” you mean “answer you agree with”?

Birdnuts wrote: »

Well that's just not true now is it??

Yes, it is – I provided the link to the relevant Eurostat data a few posts ago. Prices across Europe have been on a general upward trend for the last ten years or so.

Birdnuts wrote: »

and that table also highlights that your constant denial that there is no link between the amount of installed wind/solar and energy prices…

Please point out where I said there was no link.

bk

So the UK government has announced that they are going to phase out all coal plants by 2025:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34851718

But by replacing it with more gas and nuclear, not wind.

It seems the governments are coming to a realisation on the ugly truth about wind.

Personally I'd love to see our own government make the same goal of closing all coal and peat generation by 2025. Probably replaced mostly with Gas and greater interconnection with the UK to use their Nuclear and indirectly Norwegian hydro.

Markcheese

So if everyone switches to nice clean gas and nuclear ain't great what happens to the price of gas -

Birdnuts

Macha wrote: »

Please stop using retail prices as evidence of anything. They are made up of so many components and need so much explanation, they're practicaly useless in understanding any one part of the energy system

What a bizarre statement!! This thread is about having wind energy on national grids and its knock on affects. What other measure is there of the costs of operating such grids??

PS: On this subject, Very interesting admission by the former chief scientist in the UK department of energy recently admitting that the cost of wind/solar on their grid has been dramatically underestimated for years
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2015/11/18/decc-consistently-misled-public-over-electricity-costs.html

I have been quite strongly against the use of levelised costs (LCOE), referring to it as "the great levelised costs lie". It's therefore gratifying to see Mackay publicly agreeing with me

and tellingly further down

"It's a pity that this use of whole system costs was not extended to, say, the regular statements on comparative costs of electricity generation that DECC has been putting out for years, including all the time that Mackay was in position as chief scientist. These have exclusively used levelised costs.

But it's good that an insider has finally admitted that the government has been misleading us about electricity costs for years."



"

Some other very interesting stuff on that link I will go into more detail over the coming days

Birdnuts

Markcheese wrote: »

So if everyone switches to nice clean gas and nuclear ain't great what happens to the price of gas -

Natural gas production is rocketing across the globe with even the US now in surplus and vast new gas field discoveries in places like East Africa and Brazil. Many producing countries are now desperate to sell the stuff via LNG and still others are simply burning off vast amounts as a waste product from oil production. Taking these changes into account along with increasing energy efficiency technology in homes and businesses, gas powered systems will certainly play a big role in our energy futures. These are the major reasons CO2 emmissions have dropped so dramatically in the US in the last 10 years(Gas is displacing dirty coal in the energy mix) despite a recovering economy. Retail energy prices there are also lot lower compared to most leading European economies too.

Macha

Birdnuts wrote: »

What a bizarre statement!! This thread is about having wind energy on national grids and its knock on affects. What other measure is there of the costs of operating such grids??

Costs and prices are two different things. I think I've said that statement about seven separate times on this form.

For example, retail prices can go up when taxes go up. Retail prices can be kept artificially low through subsidies from general taxation. Retail prices can go up when network costs go up.

See?

Macha

Birdnuts wrote: »

I'd take SEAI research on such things with a large dose of salt given there constant promotion of wind energy over the alternatives and ongoing failure to do a proper CBA on said system. The link below higlights some the issues concerned with SEAI "research"

That's a pretty obvious fallacy of argument to authority. If you find a flaw in the methodology of the research I quoted, please do let me know. Otherwise it stands valid.

Markcheese

Birdnuts wrote:

Natural gas production is rocketing across the globe with even the US now in surplus and vast new gas field discoveries in places like East Africa and Brazil. Many producing countries are now desperate to sell the stuff via LNG and still others are simply burning off vast amounts as a waste product from oil production. Taking these changes into account along with increasing energy efficiency technology in homes and businesses, gas powered systems will certainly play a big role in our energy futures. These are the major reasons CO2 emmissions have dropped so dramatically in the US in the last 10 years(Gas is displacing dirty coal in the energy mix) despite a recovering economy. Retail energy prices there are also lot lower compared to most leading European economies too.

I get that natural gas production is increasing ... and most of those emerging economies are massively upping their use of energy . Fracking in the Us and elsewhere gives an inital glut of gas and drops steadily from then on. ( so very finite especially when taken in terms of the life of power stations and energy systems)
On the plus side LNG has become a lot more flexible and cheaper with the new floating platforms...
But demand for gas and electricity will seriously increase in the europe too if/when electric becomes the new diesel.. and coal is phased out..
I cant see domestic electricity efficency making much difference ..

djpbarry

Birdnuts wrote: »

Retail energy prices there are also lot lower compared to most leading European economies too.

Even though there has been a massive expansion of wind generation in the US?

Capt'n Midnight

Birdnuts wrote: »

Retail energy prices there are also lot lower compared to most leading European economies too.

indeed, retail petrol prices over there are a lot lower :rolleyes:

Birdnuts

Macha wrote: »

That's a pretty obvious fallacy of argument to authority. If you find a flaw in the methodology of the research I quoted, please do let me know. Otherwise it stands valid.

I already posted a link highlighting the flaws in SEAI "research" on that matter in that same post. You obviously didn't bother to read it. Neither have you offered any explanation as to where this supposed "billion euro saving" went??.

Birdnuts

djpbarry wrote: »

Even though there has been a massive expansion of wind generation in the US?

Only in some states - and with predictable results

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2014/10/17/electricity-prices-soaring-in-top-10-wind-power-states/

Birdnuts

Macha wrote: »

Costs and prices are two different things. I think I've said that statement about seven separate times on this form.

For example, retail prices can go up when taxes go up. Retail prices can be kept artificially low through subsidies from general taxation. Retail prices can go up when network costs go up.

See?

This thread is about the real cost of wind energy on a grid - and you now want to ignore the higher network costs, extra levies and taxes etc. associated with having wind energy on a grid. Next you'll be claiming that wind power is free!!:rolleyes: The facts are that there is a clear link between installed wind capacity and high power prices - in fact 84% of variation in energy costs across the EU are explained by costs associated with wind/solar.


http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/08/03/obama-may-finally-succeed/

"That is a most interesting result. Per capita installed renewable capacity by itself explains 84% of the variation in electricity costs. "

Birdnuts

Markcheese wrote: »

I get that natural gas production is increasing ... and most of those emerging economies are massively upping their use of energy . Fracking in the Us and elsewhere gives an inital glut of gas and drops steadily from then on. ..

Theres a lot more to the US gas glut story than fracking. And they've only scratched the surface of that anyway. New technology is allowing vast new gas fields to be tapped in deeper continental shelf waters too. Indeed the outlook for a long lasting glut is such that the likes of SHELL and STATEOIL have now halted nearly all their Arctic drilling operations on the back of it as there are far more easier reserves to now tap

Macha

Birdnuts wrote: »

This thread is about the real cost of wind energy on a grid - and you now want to ignore the higher network costs, extra levies and taxes etc. associated with having wind energy on a grid. Next you'll be claiming that wind power is free!!:rolleyes: The facts are that there is a clear link between installed wind capacity and high power prices - in fact 84% of variation in energy costs across the EU are explained by costs associated with wind/solar.

No, that's not what I said. But you need to demonstrate that's actually what's happening, not just claiming it's the case. Just stating retail prices are going up and there are more renewables, ergo renewables are increasing retail prices is correlation, not causation.

To give another example, retail electricity prices have recently gone up in Greece. And renewables have been increasing on the grid. But what is the real reason why prices went up? They just deregulated retail electricity prices. Here's another: prices just went up in France. Why? The government regulates prices and just decided it has to go up to cover increased nuclear costs. See?

If there's such a clear link, I'm sure you'll be able to provide some decent evidence. And you'll also be able to give an answer to the fact that Europe's generation and transition grid assets are ageing and have to be replaced anyway over the coming years.

djpbarry

Birdnuts wrote: »

Only in some states - and with predictable results

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2014/10/17/electricity-prices-soaring-in-top-10-wind-power-states/

Rather strange that neither Texas nor California, the two biggest investors in wind generation, are mentioned?

Birdnuts

djpbarry wrote: »

Rather strange that neither Texas nor California, the two biggest investors in wind generation, are mentioned?

Energy poverty becoming a serious issue due to rising energy prices in California on the back of wind/solar

http://www.cnsnews.com/commentary/cnsnewscom-staff/californias-green-energy-policies-are-driving-rising-numbers-energy

Birdnuts

Macha wrote: »

No, that's not what I said. But you need to demonstrate that's actually what's happening, not just claiming it's the case. Just stating retail prices are going up and there are more renewables, ergo renewables are increasing retail prices is correlation, not causation.

To give another example, retail electricity prices have recently gone up in Greece. And renewables have been increasing on the grid. But what is the real reason why prices went up? They just deregulated retail electricity prices. Here's another: prices just went up in France. Why? The government regulates prices and just decided it has to go up to cover increased nuclear costs. See?

If there's such a clear link, I'm sure you'll be able to provide some decent evidence. And you'll also be able to give an answer to the fact that Europe's generation and transition grid assets are ageing and have to be replaced anyway over the coming years.

I already provided a link showing that 84% of increased costs on such grids are down to adding wind/solar. And plenty more links in this thread showing similar outcomes. The Greek state can no longer afford the largesse of supporting wind developers via tax credits,subsidies etc. and is now passing the cost directly on to its hard pressed citizens. Nothing to celebrate there. In France it is notable that since Hollande came to power and his adoption of Germany's dubious energy policies, the price of power has started to rise significantly, just like what happened with its near neighbour that is a decade futher down the wind/solar road and already has power prices nearly twice France's.