Desperate House Buys RTE One 9:40pm

ixus

jmayo wrote: »

AFAIK he commented how he sold in 2007 and how he might get on to the wife about buying again.

Now first of all he sold at the near enough the peak and second he hasn't bought in what a lot of people claimed was the bottom, as in the last year or the year before last.
Does that say anything because it speaks bloody volumes to me..

I noticed this but, do you think he maybe said this to advertise his smarts and get people thinking "hey this lad thinks there's still more upside"....

riclad

Theres plenty of good house,s in nice quiet area,s in dublin,for 200k or less.
For a 500k house , you are paying 250k premium to live in a posh area .
And there maybe a factor ,of land ,sites.
eg theres no sites left in this area to build on in this area.
Theres no chance of someone building a large apartment block down the road in 2 years time.
So a potential buyer may look on this shortage of sites as a reason to buy there .
I wonder if this government have any highly qualified advisers,
or anyone who is qualified as an economist to give them logical advice.

Sunny Dayz

It wasn't clear to me from the program last night - the people featured trying to buy - what was their current housing situation - were they renting? Did they own a property already and were trying to upsize?

ixus

People are gone batsh!t crazy.

Supply is being kept artificially low. Demand is high, with the help of government intervention and the media.

Supply will find it's way to the market eventually. It might take 9/12 months.

Gam

Sunny Dayz wrote: »

It wasn't clear to me from the program last night - the people featured trying to buy - what was their current housing situation - were they renting? Did they own a property already and were trying to upsize?

Some renting, some owning and in negative equity

ryan101

ixus wrote: »

I noticed this but, do you think he maybe said this to advertise his smarts and get people thinking "hey this lad thinks there's still more upside"....

He didn't say it for the craic, of course he said it with that intention, it's just more estate agent sales banter.

ixus

Sunny Dayz wrote: »

It wasn't clear to me from the program last night - the people featured trying to buy - what was their current housing situation - were they renting? Did they own a property already and were trying to upsize?

Also neglected to tell viewers their circumstances of employment. I don't need specifics but, "works in management in IT" or some such would suffice. It's a decent sized mortgage with big repayments depending on deposits.

gaius c

ixus wrote: »

People are gone batsh!t crazy.

Supply is being kept artificially low. Demand is high, with the help of government intervention and the media.

Supply will find it's way to the market eventually. It might take 9/12 months.

Dangerous putting a timeframe on such predictions I feel.

ionapaul

amdublin wrote: »

Buyers calm the f down!

My wife and I were shouting at the stupid buyers last night (we're looking in Dublin so run across these types all the time) - STOP OFFERING THE ASKING AT THE FIRST OPEN VIEWING YOU MUPPETS! You're not going to get the house there and then, all you are doing is setting a floor for bidding and driving prices (and seller expectations) up. Argh, people are so bad when it comes to this kind of thing, have they never haggled for anything before? Why make a bid until after the FINAL viewing?!

jmayo

ixus wrote: »

I noticed this but, do you think he maybe said this to advertise his smarts and get people thinking "hey this lad thinks there's still more upside"....

You are getting cynical.
Indeed it could be played like this.

From dealing with him I found him to be a hell of a lot more realistic (honest dare I say) than some of the agents out there who had no bloody idea of the how the market was moving.

A lot of reasonably smart people with property did get out ahead of the bust.
The writing was on the wall and they either got out with nice profits or even cut their losses.
And I would even include developers and builders in this as well.

Everyone did not end up in NAMA or like Mick Wallace.

And there is probably still more upside what with the low supply, the hype and herd mentality at play, but I seriously think it is going to pop.

Another comment that came out of the show was how the Dublin affect would ripple out to the country.
I don't see that playing out as some would think.
It probably will to some of the nearer comutter towns, but most of the country is fooked, for want of a better word.

There are some houses in this country that were only ever desirable or needed during a 4 to 5 year period of sheer lunacy.

Ritchi

ixus wrote: »

People are gone batsh!t crazy.

Supply is being kept artificially low. Demand is high, with the help of government intervention and the media.

Supply will find it's way to the market eventually. It might take 9/12 months.

As house prices go up, the supply could get even less.

Everyone is negative equity will be holding out for the prices to put them out of negative equity, and maybe even longer.

Another source is from repossessions, which are still small, and will remain small as banks will want to get a decent price too. They will hold out until it makes more financial sense to sell.

Next one is new builds. This will take years, and it's not in the governments interest to get it done quicker, they want house prices to go up.

The government, banks, Nama, builders, basically everyone with power/money want house prices to go up and up. The only people that don't, are the FTBs you have little influence. I can't see that changing for at least the next few years.

That's not saying everyone should rush out and buy now, but for a lot of people, it's hard to see another option.

gmisk

riclad wrote: »

Theres plenty of good house,s in nice quiet area,s in dublin,for 200k or less.

Please send me on a list....I have been looking!

Gam

ixus wrote: »

Also neglected to tell viewers their circumstances of employment. I don't need specifics but, "works in management in IT" or some such would suffice. It's a decent sized mortgage with big repayments depending on deposits.

I can send some info on PM if you are interested

ryan101

Wages are not increasing at all, so this can only be another bubble.

riclad

Who is keeping the supply low.?
Due to the crash, there has been very little house building in dublin since 2008.
Interest rates are low now,
IF they go up in 3 years we could have even more people getting into trouble,
getting into arrears on their mortgages.
To get planning and construction finished on a large housing estate takes maybe 12 months,
if you can find a large site to build on.
The government needs to think what will we do in the next 5 years ,
to fix the housing crisis in dublin.
How can we increase the supply of affordable housing .

whippet

ryan101 wrote: »

Wages are not increasing at all, so this can only be another bubble.

what are you basing that on?

there are plenty of industries out there where good staff are at a premium and wages are reflecting that.

while there are those struggling, there are plenty who are not and have savings.

Ritchi

riclad wrote: »

Who is keeping the supply low.?

There are a lot of people with a vested intrerest in keeping supply low.

Sellers, the banks, Nama, the government. They all want prices to go higher, and will not encourage increasing the supply any time soon.

ryan101

whippet wrote: »

what are you basing that on?

there are plenty of industries out there where good staff are at a premium and wages are reflecting that.

while there are those struggling, there are plenty who are not and have savings.

So wages are increasing in the private sector ? I'd like to see that data so.

D1stant

I'd imagine there were quite a few developers in NAMA with big sh1t eating grins watching that last night

The fixation with certain areas of Dublin is unhealthy for everyone. Id like to see

-high speed affordable public transport developed that would allow people in large towns within 100 miles of Dublin commute.
- larger and better built high rises in Dublin
- More development grants for other cities.

amdublin

whippet wrote: »

yep .. and there are people working with me commuting by bus and spending more time walking to the bus and on the bus every day!

Anyway .. at the moment i'm working from home more and more, usually twice a week .. so a commute time of about 5 seconds from kitchen to home office.

50mins commute when I get to live in comfort, 3/4 of an acre beside the beach, 5 mins from a large provincial town, 5 mins walk from the local school, two pubs in walking distance, golf courses, sports clubs and most importantly a house that is actually comfortable for a family .. none of this searching through IKEA for 'storage solutions' as the house is just too small.

While I accept it isn't for everyone ... I like my space too much to be bunched in to a nondescript suburban estate.

Ah jaysis sounds too good to be true!

You're going to have to give us a bit more info of the area of dub you work in and the county you're driving to. (Please!)

Sure you'd barely get out of town (dub) in 50 minutes.

ixus

riclad wrote: »

Who is keeping the supply low.?

Banks- not repossesing & not providing finance to complete new developements. Obviously, they're going to look after their own books first.
NAMA - Land banking
Govt- Allowing NAMA & builders to land bank without any limit to time. Use it or lose it.

Ritchi

whippet wrote: »

what are you basing that on?

there are plenty of industries out there where good staff are at a premium and wages are reflecting that.

while there are those struggling, there are plenty who are not and have savings.

Whether they are increasing or not, they are definitely not increasing with the rate house prices seem to be going up by in Dublin.

whippet

amdublin wrote: »

Ah jaysis sounds too good to be true!

You're going to have to give us a bit more info of the area of dub you work in and the county you're driving to. (Please!)

Sure you'd barely get out of town (dub) in 50 minutes.

working just off the M50 and living in north lenister

whippet

ryan101 wrote: »

So wages are increasing in the private sector ? I'd like to see that data so.

you can't generalise and just say 'private sector' .. the private sector is so diverse, some are doing extremely well while some have their arses hanging out the window.

Myself and my wife have seen a rise in our combined earnings of approx 40% (before taxation) since 2009 .. pharma and IT sectors

ryan101

whippet wrote: »

you can't generalise and just say 'private sector' .. the private sector is so diverse, some are doing extremely well while some have their arses hanging out the window.

Myself and my wife have seen a rise in our combined earnings of approx 40% (before taxation) since 2009 .. pharma and IT sectors

So after the panic buying from people with more money than sense is over ?
Where is all this extra money coming from to consistently pay bubble prices in Dublin ?
And why blow it on property speculation ?

beardy_mcgrath

Gam wrote: »

I could be totally wrong, but this is not another bubble. At least not as big as the other one.
Prices will go up another bit, but then in the next few years more offer will kick in and the cash/first time buyers will be reduced in number and the market will settle, more or less.

I gave a good look at the market in the last few months and the bulk of the current buyers is cash/first time buyers, with a fixed budget and not a cent more, who are looking for fully finished houses to move in immediately. Once they are gone, there will be a wave of buyers who have to sell heir current house, some in negative equity, who currently can't compete with the cash buyers. Then things will change. As long as people don't buy for investment but for a house they want to live in long term, there will be no major bubble.

My advice is that if you can wait 1-2 years, do it. And if you can live outside Dublin, even better.

I'm buying now in Dublin because it's the right time and place for my family, not because I think I'm doing a good investment.

what will distinguish this ( bubble ) from the last one is that any old cottage in leitrim wont be worth 150 k this time round , dublin will surge ahead of the rest of the country , i dont expect the likes of galway or cork to add to much more to where they already are , relatively speaking , galway is over priced compared to dublin right now when you consider how small it is

beardy_mcgrath

strongback wrote: »

When are all the repossessions we kept hearing about kicking in.......

Wasn't Eddie Hobson only saying last month that house prices have 18 months still to go before they hit the bottom?

Listen house selling was always seasonal......Spring and Autumn.

Wait until the depths of winter 2014/15 are upon us when the outlook returns to gloomy and Springs skip in the step is a distant memory.

My father used to say "keep your powder dry".

its usually best to ignore anything eddie hobbs says

around two years ago he was advising people to buy gold and predicting that oil would be across $150 per barrell

gold is down 30% and oil is under a hundred dollars per barrel

beardy_mcgrath

riclad wrote: »

Theres plenty of good house,s in nice quiet area,s in dublin,for 200k or less.
For a 500k house , you are paying 250k premium to live in a posh area .
And there maybe a factor ,of land ,sites.
eg theres no sites left in this area to build on in this area.
Theres no chance of someone building a large apartment block down the road in 2 years time.
So a potential buyer may look on this shortage of sites as a reason to buy there .
I wonder if this government have any highly qualified advisers,
or anyone who is qualified as an economist to give them logical advice.

you can buy a nice house in a fairly ok estate in clondalkin or tallaght for under 200 k but your very far out

beardy_mcgrath

D1stant wrote: »

I'd imagine there were quite a few developers in NAMA with big sh1t eating grins watching that last night

The fixation with certain areas of Dublin is unhealthy for everyone. Id like to see

-high speed affordable public transport developed that would allow people in large towns within 100 miles of Dublin commute.
- larger and better built high rises in Dublin
- More development grants for other cities.

their isnt the population density in ireland to justify public transport investment of that kind , this isnt england or germany , let alone japan

beardy_mcgrath

ixus wrote: »

Banks- not repossesing & not providing finance to complete new developements. Obviously, they're going to look after their own books first.
NAMA - Land banking
Govt- Allowing NAMA & builders to land bank without any limit to time. Use it or lose it.

its not politically convenient to allow reposessions , people would be alot more up in arms about evictions than a lack of supply

this is ireland where your entitled to remain in your house even your defaulting on loans