Desperate House Buys RTE One 9:40pm

ixus

gauis wrote:

Dangerous putting a timeframe on such predictions I feel.

Ritchi wrote: »

As house prices go up, the supply could get even less.

......

Next one is new builds. This will take years, and it's not in the governments interest to get it done quicker, they want house prices to go up.

.......

Back in Dec, on thepin, I wrote :"Heard one developer is to make a start on 5000 residential units in locations such as Sutton, Sandyford & Carrickmines in 2014."

In Jan, further info came via the independent.

5000 units is 5000 units. How do you think that would impact supply & demand?

That's just one developer.

D1stant

beardy_mcgrath wrote: »

their isnt the population density in ireland to justify public transport investment of that kind , this isnt england or germany , let alone japan

If as a country we do not invest in infrastructure, energy and education we are screwed.

I'm not asking for a TGV to every town, but 5-10 satellite towns outside Dublin should be commutable in less than an hour and cost less than driving. That would take the heat out of Dublin prices, spread wealth and sustainably rejuvenate areas outside Dublin

BTW England is a poor example. Outside London PT is crap.

Frank Lee Midere

beardy_mcgrath wrote: »

what will distinguish this ( bubble ) from the last one is that any old cottage in leitrim wont be worth 150 k this time round , dublin will surge ahead of the rest of the country , i dont expect the likes of galway or cork to add to much more to where they already are , relatively speaking , galway is over priced compared to dublin right now when you consider how small it is

That's meaningless. Size means nothing. Detroit is bigger than the hamptons.


I love the way that Irish people are convincing themselves once again that "this time it's different" and they should get the largest possible mortgage possible. It's like the last 7 years were a dream.

Ritchi

ixus wrote: »

Back in Dec, on thepin, I wrote :"Heard one developer is to make a start on 5000 residential units in locations such as Sutton, Sandyford & Carrickmines in 2014."

In Jan, further info came via the independent.

5000 units is 5000 units. How do you think that would impact supply & demand?

That's just one developer.

That depends on when he finishes them, and when he decides to sell them.

I don't think 5000 is enough to move the market, it would need about four times that, every year for the next few to properly slow down the increases.

If the price increases slow down, then builders will be slow to build. The people building and selling are hoping for houses to keep increasing and they'll do what they can to make that happen, they will not flood the market, they have no reason to do that.

Frank Lee Midere

ixus wrote: »

Back in Dec, on thepin, I wrote :"Heard one developer is to make a start on 5000 residential units in locations such as Sutton, Sandyford & Carrickmines in 2014."

In Jan, further info came via the independent.

5000 units is 5000 units. How do you think that would impact supply & demand?

That's just one developer.

Yeah. There are massive developments in the area. Bigger than the boom. I'm guessing people were sitting on land with planning permission.

Adding a few thousand houses to this market would cool it significantly. Probably reverse it.

Cuddlesworth

Ritchi wrote: »

The government, banks, Nama, builders, basically everyone with power/money want house prices to go up and up. The only people that don't, are the FTBs you have little influence. I can't see that changing for at least the next few years.

If you price FTBs out of a property market, you will have a crash. I would have thought thats what we should be trying to avoid, it would seem I was wrong.

Frank Lee Midere

Ritchi wrote: »

That depends on when he finishes them, and when he decides to sell them.

I don't think 5000 is enough to move the market, it would need about four times that, every year for the next few to properly slow down the increases.

If the price increases slow down, then builders will be slow to build. The people building and selling are hoping for houses to keep increasing and they'll do what they can to make that happen, they will not flood the market, they have no reason to do that.

They have to finish what they started. And the idea that Dublin needs 20,000 houses per year is nuts. The same crap again. That supposes increases in Dublins population alone of about 50-60k a year.

Last year 100 k people left the country. The natural increase is only 10k per annum ( deaths over births). The natural increase in Dublin is about 3k.

We exited the bailout in December 2013. We were in recession until mid. 2013 from late 2012, we've scraped a few months of anaemic growth since. A few months later with debt to GDP at unplayable levels we are talking like we are in a permanent boom. Utter nonsense.

Price increases last year were due to lack of supply. There were only 10,000 in the city. Mortgages were the lowest on record. Cash stepped in. If you added 5000 to the market today prices will crash.

Ritchi

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

If you price FTBs out of a property market, you will have a crash. I would have thought thats what we should be trying to avoid, it would seem I was wrong.

Access to credit is the problem. People have it now, so prices are going up, if they curtailed the access in some way, then we'd get more reasonable growth.

But the government seems to want to make it easier to get credit, and it's going to be a disaster soon enough.

Ritchi

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

They have to finish what they started. And the idea that Dublin needs 20,000 houses per year is nuts. The same crap again. That supposes increases in Dublins population alone of about 50-60k a year.

Last year 100 k people left the country. The natural increase is only 10k per annum ( deaths over births). The natural increase in Dublin is about 3k.

We exited the bailout in December 2013. A few months later with debt to GDP at unplayable levels we are talking like we are in a permanent boom. Utter nonsense.

Price increases last year were due to lack of supply. There were only 10,000 in the city. Mortgages were the lowest on record. Cash stepped in. If you added 5000 to the market today prices will crash.

It's not about natural increases at the minute, it's about sorting out the backlog of people that currently want to buy. Once that is, or if that is, dealt with, then yes, there will be a need for less houses to be built.

There are 3000 on the market at present, and it's madness, another 5000 would do little to turn it from madness to sanity. The Dublin market needs more like 20,000 houses to level off the current increases, which isn't going to happen any time soon.

Hollister11

Was this taken down off rte player, was up last night o

Idbatterim

Yeah. There are massive developments in the area. Bigger than the boom. I'm guessing people were sitting on land with planning permission.

Adding a few thousand houses to this market would cool it significantly. Probably reverse it.

Thing is though, they arent going to be build in any volume in the areas where it is going particularly mad, so will people simply move a bit further out (to where these new homes are being built or continue renting or simply pay whatever it takes to secure their 3/4 bed semi in churchtown, rathfarnham, dundrum, goatstown etc?

Last year 100 k people left the country. The natural increase is only 10k per annum ( deaths over births). The natural increase in Dublin is about 3k.

The population has still increased every year though, despite the recession, even during the boom tens of thousands were emigrating every year, I would say there are a lot of people who would come back if they could find employment, and if things pick up again in construction and things start booming, how many more foreigners might flood in?

beardy_mcgrath

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

That's meaningless. Size means nothing. Detroit is bigger than the hamptons.


I love the way that Irish people are convincing themselves once again that "this time it's different" and they should get the largest possible mortgage possible. It's like the last 7 years were a dream.

im saying relative to its economy , galway is more expensive than dublin right now , im saying that the whole country wont experience a property bubble like we had up to 2007 but dublin will ape london

riclad

I presume people are buying houses to live in ,
for 20 + years .
IF you can afford to buy a house for 500k,
will it make much difference if in 6 years time its worth 400k?
People did crazy things in the boom,
eg pay 300k plus for a 1bed apartment.
eg people thought there,s no risk in buying anything, as prices were rising .

I wonder where new supply will come from ,as most of the big irish builders are no longer in business.

ryan101

Hollister11 wrote: »

Was this taken down off rte player, was up last night o

Seems to be gone all right, it was there this morning too.

ixus

Ritchi wrote: »

Access to credit is the problem. People have it now, so prices are going up, if they curtailed the access in some way, then we'd get more reasonable growth.

In terms of credit, I think what you have is a large base of people who can afford mortgage repayments in a range of 1,000 - 1,800pm.

UB's Mortgage Calc puts the mortgage range at 220k - 350K mortgage over 30 years. It's all about deposits then and whether you really are prepared to stretch that bit more for "the right location".

You have a scenario then whereby a large group are pre-approved for a mortgage and they all chase the same house. One has to win. The price gets pushed up. The group moves onto the next house, pushing that up.

Banks are more than happy to throw out pre-approvals as it raises house prices for them. And sure doesn't that do a great job for them in terms of advertising the amount of mortgages they're approving...

Gam

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

That's meaningless. Size means nothing. Detroit is bigger than the hamptons.


I love the way that Irish people are convincing themselves once again that "this time it's different" and they should get the largest possible mortgage possible. It's like the last 7 years were a dream.

It is different. Banks are much tighter with mortgages now (even too much in some cases), personal experience. I gave them all the guarantees in the world and they offered me peanuts at 34 years. I had tho shop around quite a bit to find a decent proposal. If the bank were giving mortgages out more easily, yes I think there would be another bubble.
I have the feel that banks and government have learned something, but not the people still.

The buyers you see around now are partially or completely cash. Reasonable mortgages, limited exposure, limited risk.

ryan101

This programme seems to have been removed from RTE player, anyone know why ?

whippet

ryan101 wrote: »

So after the panic buying from people with more money than sense is over ?
Where is all this extra money coming from to consistently pay bubble prices in Dublin ?
And why blow it on property speculation ?

You are assuming that I am saying that there isn't a bubble and all is rational in the property market .. I didn't say that at all, quite the opposite.

I took you up on your comment where you said that wages are not rising and the generalisation that wages in the private sector are flat.

The difference with this bubble and the previous one is that people are not getting in to as much debt as they did before to pay the mad prices.

Anyone buying a €500+ semiD will be putting in a proper cash deposit saved up during the last 8-10 years, these people are typically FTBs who are a couple of years more mature than the previous generation of FTBs, these FTBs either have young families or will be having them in the near future and are looking for mid to long term family homes ...not just something to get them on the property ladder.

They are cash rich and are willing to pay a premium to get a house in a preferred location as a home .. not just a step on the so-called ladder and not something they intend to flip with a IO mortgage. These people are more thank likely in the prime earning stage of their lives and can service these mortgages (currently)

However, as someone who would never want to live in a poky 60 year old semiD in Dundrum I can't fathom paying €500k+ for the privilege.

ryan101

whippet wrote: »

You are assuming that I am saying that there isn't a bubble and all is rational in the property market .. I didn't say that at all, quite the opposite.

I took you up on your comment where you said that wages are not rising and the generalisation that wages in the private sector are flat.

The difference with this bubble and the previous one is that people are not getting in to as much debt as they did before to pay the mad prices.

Anyone buying a €500+ semiD will be putting in a proper cash deposit saved up during the last 8-10 years, these people are typically FTBs who are a couple of years more mature than the previous generation of FTBs, these FTBs either have young families or will be having them in the near future and are looking for mid to long term family homes ...not just something to get them on the property ladder.

They are cash rich and are willing to pay a premium to get a house in a preferred location as a home .. not just a step on the so-called ladder and not something they intend to flip with a IO mortgage. These people are more thank likely in the prime earning stage of their lives and can service these mortgages (currently)

However, as someone who would never want to live in a poky 60 year old semiD in Dundrum I can't fathom paying €500k+ for the privilege.

So once these 30-40 something panic buyers, that have more savings than sense blow their saving, how are these property prices going to be sustained ?

Theboinkmaster

ryan101 wrote: »

So once these 30-40 something panic buyers, that have more savings than sense blow their saving, how are these property prices going to be sustained ?

Another crash i hope.

Zamboni

Ritchi wrote: »

Access to credit is the problem. People have it now, so prices are going up, if they curtailed the access in some way, then we'd get more reasonable growth.

But the government seems to want to make it easier to get credit, and it's going to be a disaster soon enough.

You are ignoring the actual stats of lending from the past quarter.

Lending is down, down, down.

This is cash driving this.

gmisk

Zamboni wrote: »

You are ignoring the actual stats of lending from the past quarter.

Lending is down, down, down.

This is cash driving this.

http://www.broadsheet.ie/2014/03/26/dublin-prices-dip/
Yep CSO figures back this up

trainslaughing

groovyg wrote: »

Yeah I didn't like him at all and when he started talking about gazumping as the 'unfortunate side of the business' you knew he was talking through his hole. He was trying to pretend he had a moral compass. I mean what estate agent doesn't like gazumping. As another poster said ...a waste of an hour of my life !!

you sound like a right laugh

whippet

ryan101 wrote: »

So once these 30-40 something panic buyers, that have more savings than sense blow their saving, how are these property prices going to be sustained ?

I don't know why you are asking me this ...... I NEVER said these prices were sustainable ... I am pointing out what I am seeing happening !!!!!!!!

I said all along this is a bubble .. however, the people who are over paying are not going to be looking to trade-up in 5-6 years time - they are in these properties for medium to long term to raise families ... negative equity will not really be a problem for them apart from their ego !!!

ryan101

whippet wrote: »

I don't know why you are asking me this ...... I NEVER said these prices were sustainable ... I am pointing out what I am seeing happening !!!!!!!!

I said all along this is a bubble .. however, the people who are over paying are not going to be looking to trade-up in 5-6 years time - they are in these properties for medium to long term to raise families ... negative equity will not really be a problem for them apart from their ego !!!

I never said you did, I'm asking why do people think they are, calm down.
I just find it hard to believe all these bubble buyers are that stupid, but perhaps so.

whippet

ryan101 wrote: »

I never said you did, I'm asking why do people think they are, calm down.
I just find it hard to believe all these bubble buyers are that stupid, but perhaps so.

I don't see a whole pile of people saying they are sustainable.

ionapaul

I think a lot of people - maybe myself included - think the current prices are not really sustainable, but can't see any major benefit to waiting. Worries about a future bail-in are definitely a consideration as well, might be scary to have €100k+ sitting in Irish banks if Bailout Mk II is a possibility; you'd feel less bad about negative equity than having 30% of your savings taking off you overnight!

Definitely feel that prices will be lower at some point in the future, be that one, two, three or more years away. The cash is running out and yields aren't great.

Ritchi

Zamboni wrote: »

You are ignoring the actual stats of lending from the past quarter.

Lending is down, down, down.

This is cash driving this.

Do you have a link to these stats?

I just want to see if they differentiate between areas? And is it number of mortgages that are down, or the average mortgage?

Sleepy

A large part of the problem in Dublin is that it has so many no go areas that no-one in their right mind would want to live in (or near). When so much of the employment is in the one small city and there are so few areas in the city that one would actually want to raise a family in, property is going to get *very* expensive in those areas.

Of course, it would be political suicide for the government to try re-locating all it's social housing out to more rural areas where it would be more affordable to provide but it would certainly help provide supply in areas people might want to live in. There's no geographic reason for property in D4 to be so much more valuable than 1,2,3,7,8 or 9 yet most of these areas (a few pockets such as Clontarf aside) are *much* cheaper to live in. Why? Because they have far more problems with the anti-social behaviour that comes from such high levels of un(der)employment and multi-generation cradle to grave welfare recipients.

Zamboni

Ritchi wrote: »

Do you have a link to these stats?

http://www.ibf.ie/gns/publications/research/researchmortgagemarket.aspx